基于物质流方法的中国铜资源社会存量研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.05.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国作为铜资源消费大国,保障铜资源的可持续供应是经济建设进程中的首要任务,科学地计算和评价中国铜资源的社会存量可为中国铜业的可持续发展及铜资源的循环利用提供重要的数据保障。本文运用动态物质流分析（MFA）方法、Weibull分布方法和生命周期方法并结合Minitab软件计算了1990-2013年中国铜产品的报废量和铜资源的社会存量。计算结果显示:①1990-2013年中国铜产品的理论报废总量为1521万t,社会蓄积量为6504万t;②2013年中国再生铜产量占精炼铜产量的38.4%,低于世界平均水平（40%）;③以国内废杂铜为原料的再生铜产量占再生铜总量的36.5%。研究结果揭示:中国国内铜资源报废量和社会蓄积量将会持续增加,未来将会保持这种增长趋势;中国国内的废杂铜没有得到有效利用;中国再生铜的原料主要源于进口废杂铜,在铜资源对外依存度居高不下的情况下还没有意识到中国国内废杂铜循环利用的重要性;在精炼铜消费量持续增长和自给能力有限以及进口受限的综合压力下,再生铜必将成为未来中国铜供给的主要来源。建议在中国铜资源禀赋条件差的条件下增强废杂铜的回收利用,提高废杂铜的利用效率,来保障中国铜资源的供给安全。

关键词: 物质流, 报废量, 再生铜, 回收利用, 供给

Abstract:

China is a major consumer of copper resources, ensuring the sustainable supply of copper resources is the most important task in the process of economic construction, Scientific calculation and evaluation of the social stock of China's copper resources of Chinese copper industry sustainable development and copper resources recycling provides important data security. In this paper, the dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) method, the Weibull distribution method and the life cycle method are used to calculate the amount of scrap and the social stock of copper resources in 1990-2013, which is combined with the Minitab software. The calculation results show that: (1) from 1990 to 2013 China copper product theory of total scrapping of 15.21 million tons, society volume of 6504 million tons; (2) 2009-2013 copper products in China and the theory of scrap and the mean value was 169.8 million tons, the stock of social resources of copper 447.2 million tons of annual mean; (3) in 2013 China recycled copper production accounted for 38.4% of copper production refining, lower than the world average level (40%); (4) to domestic scrap copper as raw material of recycled copper production accounts for 36.5% of the total copper regeneration. Results revealed: China's domestic copper resources scrapped and social accumulation volume will continue to increase, future will maintain this growth trend, China's domestic scrap copper have not been effectively utilized; the main source of China's renewable copper raw material on imported waste miscellaneous copper, copper resources foreign according to keep a high degree of is not aware of China's domestic scrap copper recycling the importance; in refined copper consumption continues to grow and the integrated pressure capacity is limited and restricted imports of self-sufficiency, regeneration copper will become the main source of supply of copper in China in the future. The proposal is to enhance the recovery and utilization of the waste copper and improve the utilization efficiency of the copper resources in China, and to ensure the security of the supply of copper resources in China.

Key words: material flow, scrap copper, secondary copper, reclamation, supply

王俊博, 范蕾, 李新, 柳群义, 邢万里, 赵琪. 基于物质流方法的中国铜资源社会存量研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(5): 939-947.

WANG Junbo,FAN Lei,LI Xin,LIU Qunyi,XING Wanli,ZHAO Qi. Research on the social stock of copper resources in China based on the material flow analysis[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(5): 939-947.

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行业分组	使用年限/年	平均生命周期/年
电力	10~25	15.5
空调制冷	6~15	10.0
交通运输	10~16	12.2
电子	5~15	8.6
建筑	23~40	29.3
其他	5~15	8.6

行业分组	方程
电力	T（t）=16 143t-42 320
空调制冷	T（t）=50 423t-16 024
交通运输	T（t）=35 582t-90 882
电子	T（t）=25 230t-67 696
建筑	T（t）=31 511t-82 274
其他	T（t）=37 368t-95 538

行业分组	参数		函数公式
行业分组	η	β	函数公式
建筑	33.72	6.93	F（t）=1-exp[-（t/33.72）^6.93]
电力	14.27	4.34	F（t）=1-exp[-（t/14.27）^4.34]
空调	11.59	4.17	F（t）=1-exp[-（t/11.59）^4.17]
其他	11.14	3.60	F（t）=1-exp[-（t/11.14）^3.60]
电子	11.14	3.60	F（t）=1-exp[-（t/11.14）^3.60]
交通	13.96	7.43	F（t）=1-exp[-（t/13.96）^7.43]