易地扶贫搬迁后续扶持政策对农户多维相对贫困的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.09.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在新阶段中国减贫战略从消除绝对贫困向缓解相对贫困转变的背景下，易地扶贫搬迁后续扶持政策作为巩固搬迁脱贫攻坚成果的重要举措，其对搬迁农户多维相对贫困的影响机制亟待研究。本文将风险和社会排斥同时引入可持续生计框架，构建“后续扶持政策→生计策略→多维相对贫困”分析框架，并采用形成型结构方程模型对安康市、商洛市和渭南市易地扶贫搬迁农户调查数据进行实证分析。结果表明：①总体而言，包括产业、就业、公共服务等在内的搬迁后续扶持政策有效降低了农户的多维相对贫困程度（-0.181）。其中，搬迁后续扶持政策可以直接降低农户多维相对贫困（-0.097），也可以有效改善搬迁农户生计策略进而间接缓解其多维相对贫困（-0.084）。②风险（0.150）和社会排斥（0.088）均会直接导致搬迁农户陷入多维相对贫困，当搬迁农户面临社会排斥和遭遇风险冲击时，就会出现就业困难、收入降低、社会融入困难等状态，从而陷入多维相对贫困。③搬迁后续扶持政策通过改善农户生计策略进而缓解其多维相对贫困的减贫路径会受到社会排斥和风险的制约。其中，在政府通过搬迁后续扶持政策改善农户生计策略的过程中，社会排斥具有显著的负向调节作用（-0.160）；在搬迁农户通过生计策略转型缓解其多维相对贫困的过程中，风险具有显著的正向调节作用（0.096）。未来仍需要加强易地扶贫搬迁后续扶持的顶层设计，加强易地扶贫搬迁后续扶持政策对多维相对贫困治理的靶向性。

关键词: 易地扶贫搬迁, 后续扶持政策, 生计策略, 风险, 社会排斥, 多维相对贫困

Abstract:

As China’s poverty reduction strategy has changed from eliminating absolute poverty to alleviating relative poverty in the new stage, the follow-up supportive policies of relocation for poverty alleviation is an important measure to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation through relocation and it is necessary to examine the impact of the policy on multidimensional relative poverty alleviation of farming households. This study introduced risk and social exclusion into the framework of sustainable livelihood, and constructed the analytical framework of “follow-up supportive policies → livelihood strategies → multidimensional relative poverty”. It adopted a formative structural equation model to conduct empirical analysis of survey data of relocated farmers. The conclusions of this research are as follows. (1) The follow-up supportive policies including industrial, employment, public service, and so on have effectively alleviated multidimensional relative poverty (-0.181). Specifically, these policies can directly reduce the multidimensional relative poverty of farming households (-0.097), and effectively improve their livelihood strategies, thereby indirectly alleviating their multidimensional relative poverty (-0.084). (2) Risk (0.150) and social exclusion (0.088) directly lead to the falling of relocated farming households into multidimensional relative poverty. When the relocated farmers are faced with social exclusion and risk, they will have difficulties in employment, income, social integration, and other conditions. (3) The path that follow-up supportive policies alleviate the multidimensional relative poverty of farmers by improving their livelihood strategies will be constrained by social exclusion and risk. Specifically, social exclusion has a significant negative regulatory effect (-0.160) in the process of follow-up supportive policies promoting farming household livelihood transition, and risk has a significant positive regulatory effect (0.096) in the process. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the top-level design of follow-up supportive policies of relocation, and strengthen the precise implementation of follow-up supportive policies for the governance of multidimensional relative poverty.

Key words: relocation for poverty alleviation, follow-up supportive policy, livelihood strategy, risk, social exclusion, multidimensional relative poverty

黄志刚, 黎洁. 易地扶贫搬迁后续扶持政策对农户多维相对贫困的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(9): 1905-1917.

HUANG Zhigang, LI Jie. Impact of the follow-up supportive policies of relocation for poverty alleviation on multidimensional relative poverty of farming households[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(9): 1905-1917.

图/表 8

图1

表1

表2

变量的定义与描述性统计

变量名称	指标	指标含义和赋值	均值	标准差
搬迁后续扶持政策	产业帮扶（POL₁）	对产业帮扶满意程度：1=很不满意；2=不太满意；3=一般；4=比较满意；5=很满意	3.117	1.029
（POL）	就业服务（POL₂）	对就业帮扶政策的满意程度：1=很不满意；2=不太满意；3=一般；4=比较满意；5=很满意	3.318	1.016
	迁入地基本公共服务（POL₃）	对安置区基本公共服务满意度：1=很不满意；2=不太满意；3=一般；4=比较满意；5=很满意	3.652	0.843
	搬迁群众合法权益维护（POL₄）	搬迁后，对政府维护群众合法权益保障的做法的满意程度：1=很不满意；2=不太满意；3=一般；4=比较满意；5=很满意	3.192	1.086
生计策略（LIV）	兼业水平	1=纯农业；2=务农为主务工为辅；3=务工为主务农为辅；4=纯务工；5=自主非农经营	3.287	1.107
风险（RIS）	自然风险（RIS₁）	搬迁后您家是否遭受过自然灾害：0=否；1=是	0.192	0.394
	生产风险（RIS₂）	搬迁后您家是否遭受过生产经营亏损：0=否；1=是	0.176	0.381
	经济风险（RIS₃）	搬迁后您家是否遭受过生活成本过高的风险：0=否；1=是	0.704	0.457
	社会风险（RIS₄）	搬迁后您家是否遭受过不能适应社区生活的风险：0=否；1=是	0.181	0.385
	技术风险（RIS₅）	搬迁后您家是否遭受过无法获得帮扶信息的风险：0=否；1=是	0.158	0.365
社会排斥（EXL）	就业排斥感知（EXL₁）	搬迁后您觉得在就业（机会均等）方面可以同本地人享有同等权益吗：5=十分不同意；4=比较不同意；3=一般；2=比较同意；1=十分同意	2.489	1.196
	社会关系排斥感知（EXL₂）	您同意和本地人相处中没有受到排斥和歧视，能够融洽相处吗：5=十分不同意；4=比较不同意；3=一般；2=比较同意；1=十分同意	2.151	1.165
	社会福利排斥感知（EXL₃）	搬迁后您觉得在教育、医疗方面可以同本地人享有同等权益吗：5=十分不同意；4=比较不同意；3=一般；2=比较同意；1=十分同意	2.053	0.950

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

图2

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指标	临界值	均值	标准差
收入（POV₁）	家庭人均可支配收入低于6081.6元	0.332	0.471
物质（POV₂）	家庭中没有汽车且下列资产不超过3项：电视、冰箱、洗衣机、空调、电脑、摩托车/电动车、机动三轮车	0.124	0.330
教育（POV₃）	家中至少有1人未上过学且无人有高中及以上学历	0.318	0.466
健康（POV₄）	家中有1个及以上残疾或患重病不能劳动的成员	0.245	0.431
就业（POV₅）	家中18~65周岁健康劳动力中至少有1人无业	0.575	0.494
政治参与（POV₆）	家中无人参加过社区投票选举、居民议事、党/团活动	0.429	0.495

路径	权重和显著性	路径	权重和显著性	路径	权重和显著性
POL₁➝POL	0.518***	RIS₃➝RIS	0.339*	POV₂➝POV	0.281***
POL₂➝POL	0.393***	RIS₄➝RIS	0.480**	POV₃➝POV	0.138***
POL₃➝POL	0.370***	RIS₅➝RIS	0.440**	POV₄➝POV	0.310***
POL₄➝POL	0.047	EXL₁➝EXL	0.587***	POV₅➝POV	0.030
LIV➝LIV	1.000***	EXL₂➝EXL	0.291***	POV₆➝POV	0.128**
RIS₁➝RIS	0.282	EXL₃➝EXL	0.342***
RIS₂➝RIS	0.008	POV₁➝EXL	0.786***

指标	VIF	指标	VIF	指标	VIF
POL₁	1.284	RIS₃	1.036	POV₂	1.026
POL₂	1.397	RIS₄	1.196	POV₃	1.024
POL₃	1.276	RIS₅	1.220	POV₄	1.037
POL₄	1.397	EXL₁	1.576	POV₅	1.040
LIV	1.000	EXL₂	1.271	POV₆	1.014
RIS₁	1.425	EXL₃	1.634
RIS₂	1.461	POV₁	1.050

潜变量	后续扶持政策	生计策略	社会排斥	多维相对贫困
生计策略	0.221
社会排斥	-0.268	-0.289
多维相对贫困	-0.266	-0.557	0.301
风险	-0.180	-0.038	0.224	0.222

效应	路径	系数	路径调节系数
直接效应	后续扶持政策➝生计策略	0.167***	0.030
	风险➝生计策略	0.072	0.006
	社会排斥➝生计策略	-0.245***	0.062
	后续扶持政策➝多维相对贫困	-0.097***	0.013
	生计策略➝多维相对贫困	-0.501***	0.334
	风险➝多维相对贫困	0.150**	0.033
	社会排斥➝多维相对贫困	0.088***	0.010
间接效应	后续扶持政策➝生计策略➝多维相对贫困	-0.084***	—
	风险➝生计策略➝多维相对贫困	-0.036	—
	社会排斥➝生计策略➝多维相对贫困	0.123***	—
调节效应	后续扶持政策×风险➝生计策略	-0.061	0.005
	后续扶持政策×社会排斥➝生计策略	-0.160**	0.036
	风险×生计策略➝多维相对贫困	0.096***	0.014
	社会排斥×生计策略➝多维相对贫困	-0.025	0.001
总效应	风险➝多维相对贫困	0.114**	—
	社会排斥➝多维相对贫困	0.211***	—
	后续扶持政策➝多维相对贫困	-0.181***	—