资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1580-1591.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.08.12

• 关键矿产产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

战略性金属矿产价格冲击对行业产出的影响——基于TVP-FAVAR模型的时变分析

钟美瑞1,2(), 宋婉婷1,2()   

  1. 1.中南大学商学院,长沙 410083
    2.中南大学金属资源战略研究院,长沙 410083
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-21 修回日期:2020-08-15 出版日期:2020-08-25 发布日期:2020-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 宋婉婷
  • 作者简介:钟美瑞,男,湖南郴州人,副教授,研究方向为资源经济与管理。E-mail: zmr726@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(71633006);国家自然科学基金项目(71874207);湖南省教育厅创新平台开放基金项目(17K103)

Impact of strategic metal price shocks on industrial output:Time-varying analysis based on the TVP-FAVAR model

ZHONG Meirui1,2(), SONG Wanting1,2()   

  1. 1. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    2. Institute of Metal Resources Strategy, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
  • Received:2020-02-21 Revised:2020-08-15 Online:2020-08-25 Published:2020-10-25
  • Contact: SONG Wanting

摘要:

本文基于产业安全视角,采用2006年8月—2018年12月的月度数据,将影响战略性金属矿产价格波动的直接和间接因素同时融入统一的分析架构中,并构建TVP-FAVAR实证分析模型,提炼出反映战略性金属行业波动本质的综合因素,全视角分析供给冲击、经济需求冲击、战略性金属特定需求冲击以及金融投机冲击导致的战略性金属矿产价格波动对战略性金属行业产出的影响及时变特征。结果显示:①战略性金属矿产价格冲击的行业影响效应具有时变性,在不同时间尺度与不同时间点,其影响效应呈现异质性;②供给冲击对战略性金属矿采选业产出的影响最大,而经济需求冲击主要影响战略性金属冶炼及压延加工业产出;③战略性金属矿产价格波动对中国战略性金属行业特别是战略性金属矿采选业产出产生显著抑制作用,严重影响了中国战略性金属产业安全,在当前中美贸易战背景下,其负面影响更为显著。

关键词: 产业安全, 战略性金属矿产, 价格, TVP-FAVAR模型

Abstract:

Based on the perspective of industrial security, this study used monthly data from August 2006 to December 2018 to incorporate factors that directly or indirectly affect the price fluctuations of strategic metals into a unified framework of analysis, and constructed a time varying parameter factor augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic impacts of supply shocks, economic demand shocks, strategic metal-specific demand shocks, and financial speculative shocks on the strategic metal industry’s output. The results show that the impacts of strategic metal price shocks on the strategic metal industry are time-varying. At different temporal scales and at different points in time, the effects are heterogeneous. Among the four types of shocks, supply shocks affect most in the output of strategic metal ore mining and dressing industry. The output of the strategic metal smelting and rolling processing industry is mainly affected by economic demand shocks; fluctuations in the price of strategic metals have a significant inhibitory effect on China’s strategic metal industry output, especially that of the strategic metal ore mining and dressing industry, which has severely affected the security of the strategic metal industry, and is particularly significant in the context of the current Sino-US trade war.

Key words: industrial security, strategic metal, price, TVP-FAVAR model