出口退税调整对中国稀土企业进入退出行为的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.08.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文以稀土产业为例,研究了出口退税调整如何影响稀土企业的进入退出行为,考察出口退税政策变动是否达到政府设定的产业政策目标,即优化稀土行业的资源配置。结果表明：①出口退税的下调,从整体上抑制了稀土企业进入,迫使低效率、低附加值的稀土企业退出市场,有利于稀土行业的资源配置效率提高;②出口退税抑制企业进入效应和迫使企业退出效应更多体现在出口企业、非加工贸易企业和私营企业中;③相对于稀土深加工产品,稀土初级产品受到出口退税的作用更大,其进入退出行为也更为明显。本文的主要政策蕴含在于：出口退税政策对不同企业的影响具有很大异质性,出口退税政策仍有较大的改革和调整空间,应该继续深化出口退税政策改革,改善稀土行业的资源配置效率,进而改善稀土产品的出口结构。

关键词: 出口退税, 稀土行业, 进入退出行为, 资源配置, 异质影响

Abstract:

This study examined firms’ entry and exit behavior through export rebate policies, which is illustrated by China’s rare earth market. It analyzed whether the adjustment of export rebate policies promotes the efficiency of resource allocation, and whether the adjustment facilitates low efficiency and low value-added firms quitting the rare earth industry. The empirical study showed that the reduction of export rebate rates has intensified competition among rare earth enterprises. It has promoted low efficiency and low value-added enterprises quitting the rare earth market, raised the threshold of entry level, and limited the entry of rare earth enterprises. The major policy recommendations are as follows: First, export structure and export rebate policies should be further reformed in China’s rare earth industry. Second, rare earth enterprises should be encouraged to improve their technology and productivity. Third, the government should enhance the management and control of China’s rare earth market, protect high quality rare earth products, and promote transformation of the market.

Key words: export rebate, rare earth market, entry and exit behavior, resource allocation, heterogeneous effects

何欢浪, 刘惠. 出口退税调整对中国稀土企业进入退出行为的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(8): 1540-1550.

HE Huanlang, LIU Hui. Impact of export rebate on firms’ entry and exit behaviors in China’s rare earth industry[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(8): 1540-1550.

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年份	出口总量/kg	出口均价/(美元/kg)	出口总额/美元
2000	102572072	31.851	392349266
2001	131627878	33.013	527520152
2002	14253 685	30.498	505113944
2003	200715693	31.776	616985216
2004	615419310	36.282	857658398
2005	511336993	30.009	932527274
2006	251839811	33.152	1147780028
2007	241731117	31.500	1546274574
2008	201366646	39.233	1714627766
2009	140745844	35.842	1057435798
2010	196479580	41.371	2152328284
总计	2736366629	34.048	11450600699

A.稀土企业进入行为模型中的变量
变量	均值	中值	标准差	最小值	最大值	观察值
Entry	0.2816	0.0000	0.4499	0.0000	1.0000	1630
△ExportRebates	–2.3597	0.0000	4.0475	–13.0000	0.0000	1630
L.△ExportRebates	–3.9808	0.0000	6.4502	–23.0000	0.0000	1630
TFP	5.9658	6.0352	1.1860	1.5489	9.8552	1630
Size	10.4036	10.3196	1.3223	4.3694	15.5115	1630
Age	8.6227	6.0000	8.0457	0.0000	47.0000	1630
CapitalIntensity	4.0538	4.1145	1.2960	1.1694	7.9962	1630
Lev	2.0165	1.4437	1.9546	0.0000	14.7432	1630
Subsidy	0.0032	0.0000	0.0157	0.0000	0.2996	1630
SOE	0.1497	0.0000	0.3569	0.0000	1.0000	1630
Private	0.2380	0.0000	0.4260	0.0000	1.0000	1630
B.稀土企业退出行为模型中的变量
Exit	0.1501	0.0000	0.3573	0.0000	1.0000	1599
△ExportRebates	–2.2314	0.0000	3.9702	–13.0000	0.0000	1599
L.△ExportRebates	–3.7969	0.0000	6.3617	–23.0000	0.0000	1599
TFP	5.9638	6.0374	1.1939	1.5489	9.8552	1599
Size	10.4049	10.3198	1.3225	4.3694	15.5115	1599
Age	8.6961	6.0000	8.0892	0.0000	47.0000	1599
CapitalIntensity	4.0638	4.1224	1.2898	1.1694	7.9962	1599
Lev	1.9775	1.4182	1.9085	0.0000	14.7432	1599
Subsidy	0.0033	0.0000	0.0158	0.0000	0.2996	1599
SOE	0.1501	0.0000	0.3573	0.0000	1.0000	1599
Private	0.2276	0.0000	0.4194	0.0000	1.0000	1599

	企业进入	企业进入	企业进入(滞后1期)	企业进入	企业进入	企业进入（滞后1期)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
△ExportRebates	0.0317***	0.0503***		0.0295**	0.0374***
△ExportRebates	(4.77)	(5.45)		(3.21)	(3.85)
L.△ExportRebates			0.0406***			0.0327***
L.△ExportRebates			(6.67)			(4.98)
TFP				–0.0185	–0.0327	–0.0315
TFP				(–0.39)	(–0.65)	(–0.63)
Size				–0.0899	–0.0856	–0.0820
Size				(–1.62)	(–1.70)	(–1.73)
Age				–0.0353***	–0.0390***	–0.0395***
Age				(–6.92)	(–7.24)	(–7.31)
CapitalIntensity				0.0179	0.0208	0.0185
CapitalIntensity				(0.63)	(0.69)	(0.62)
Lev				0.0277	0.0264	0.0269
Lev				(1.62)	(1.48)	(1.50)
Subsidy				5.621**	5.807**	5.601**
Subsidy				(2.72)	(2.78)	(2.68)
SOE				–0.189	–0.171	–0.168
SOE				(–1.83)	(–1.56)	(–1.53)
Private				–0.332***	–0.321***	–0.264**
Private				(–3.71)	(–3.50)	(–2.84)
Constant	–0.488***	–0.391**	–0.478**	–0.839**	–0.948**	–0.898*
Constant	(–2.98)	(–2.79)	(–2.72)	(–2.94)	(–2.66)	(–2.51)
年份固定效应	NO	YES	YES	NO	YES	YES
地区固定效应	NO	YES	YES	NO	YES	YES
Pseudo R²	0.0122	0.0233	0.0319	0.0599	0.0741	0.0797
Observations	1630	1630	1630	1630	1630	1630

	出口企业进入	非出口企业进入	加工企业进入	非加工企业进入	国有企业进入	私营企业进入
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
△ExportRebates	0.0711***	0.0201	0.0950	0.0653**	0.0324	0.0538*
△ExportRebates	(3.73)	(1.58)	(1.45)	(2.70)	(1.62)	(2.40)
Constant	0.257	0.953	0.474	0.447	0.315	0.775
Constant	(0.42)	(1.89)	(0.43)	(0.59)	(0.32)	(0.85)
控制变量	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
年份固定效应	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
地区固定效应	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Pseudo R²	0.1063	0.0747	0.1126	0.1434	0.0778	0.1663
Observations	610	1005	221	352	241	374

	企业退出	企业退出	企业退出(滞后一期)	企业退出	企业退出	企业退出(滞后一期)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
△ExportRebates	–0.0432***	–0.0489***		–0.0698***	–0.0651***
△ExportRebates	(–4.74)	(–4.96)		(–6.73)	(–5.05)
L.△ExportRebates			–0.0545***			–0.0685***
L.△ExportRebates			(–5.05)			(–5.89)
Constant	1.144**	1.056***	1.059***	1.737***	0.763**	2.018***
Constant	(2.73)	(3.04)	(5.05)	(4.66)	(2.40)	(4.27)
控制变量	NO	NO	NO	YES	YES	YES
年份固定效应	NO	YES	YES	NO	YES	YES
地区固定效应	NO	YES	YES	NO	YES	YES
Pseudo R²	0.0162	0.0385	0.0319	0.1691	0.2390	0.1819
Observations	1599	1599	1599	1599	1599	1599