过去2000年黄河中下游气候与土地覆被变化的若干特征

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.01.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据近40年在黄河中下游地区气候、灾害、植被与土地利用变化历史等方面的研究成果,综合分析了过去2000年黄河中下游地区温度、干湿、极端旱涝等的变化特征,以及历史农耕发展对土地覆被的改变和垦殖率变化的总体趋势;并从长期变化视角简要讨论了这些变化与黄河下游地区泥沙淤积、决口改道的宏观关系。主要结论有：过去2000年黄河中下游地区温度与干湿呈显著多尺度周期波动,且中游和下游地区的干湿变化并不完全同步;极端旱涝发生频率存在阶段性差异。至公元初前后,黄河中下游地区就已被开发为一个垦殖范围与今相近的农业区,其自然植被分布极为有限,且其后的农耕垦殖强度虽有大幅波动,但总体呈增加趋势。上述因素变化相互交织影响了黄河中、下游水沙输送平衡、河道淤积和河床稳定,是引发历史上黄河下游多次重现“筑堤—淤积—悬河—决口改道”循环过程的重要因素。这些认识可为进一步科学理解黄河中下游地区的环境变化规律及其与下游地区河流安澜的关系提供历史背景依据。

关键词: 黄河中下游, 过去2000年, 气候变化, 极端旱涝, 土地覆被, 农耕垦殖

Abstract:

Based on the research on the changes of climate, disasters, vegetation, and land use in the past 40 years, this study made a comprehensive assessment of the characteristics of changes of temperature, dry/wet conditions, and extreme droughts and floods, and the general trend of land cover caused by the agricultural land use, in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River over the past two millennia. We also discussed the general relationships between the above changes and the sedimentation, breaches, and avulsions in the lower Yellow River from a historical perspective. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) During the past two millennia, multi-scale periodic fluctuations of temperature and dry/wet conditions were significant in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, but the dry/wet changes in the middle and the lower reaches were not completely synchronized. Frequencies of extreme droughts and floods varied in different time periods. (2) As early as in the late Western Han Dynasty, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River had already been developed into an agricultural area with a spatial range similar to today’s, where, especially on relative flat terrains, only limited natural vegetation remained. Since then, the intensity of reclamation showed an increasing trend in general, although it fluctuated greatly over time. (3) The changes of climate and land cover had influenced the water-sediment balance, channel sedimentation, and riverbed stability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, and driven, as an important trigger, the repeated diking-sedimentation-suspended river-burst and avulsion cycle in the lower Yellow River during the historical period. These understandings can provide historical backgrounds for further revealing the characteristics of environmental change in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and their impacts on the security of the lower Yellow River region.

Key words: middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, past 2000 years, climate change, extreme drought/flood events, land cover, cropland reclamation

郑景云, 文彦君, 方修琦. 过去2000年黄河中下游气候与土地覆被变化的若干特征[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(1): 3-19.

ZHENG Jingyun, WEN Yanjun, FANG Xiuqi. Changes of climate and land cover in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River over the past 2000 years[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(1): 3-19.

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持续年份	受旱省份（市、区）	重旱省份（市、区）
989—991	河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南	河南
1073—1075	河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南	山东、河北、陕西
1209—1211	河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南	山东、河北
1370—1372	北京、河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南	山东、河北
1440—1442	河北、山西、陕西、宁夏、山东、河南	山西、陕西
1483—1485	北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南	山西、陕西、甘肃
1527—1529	北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南	全区
1585—1590	北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、青海、山东、河南	河北、山西、河南
1616—1618	北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南	河北、山东
1637—1643	北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、山东、河南	河南、河北、山西、陕西、山东
1689—1692	北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、山东、河南	山西、陕西
1721—1723	北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南	河北、山东、河南
1784—1786	河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南	山东、河南
1856—1858	北京、河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南	河北
1876—1878	北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、山东、河南	山西、河南

区间及简称	主要暴雨区	降雨特征	区域性洪灾分布区	发生区域性特大洪灾*重现期	对下游干流洪水的影响程度
黄河上游	积石山及周边高山地区	暴雨频次低、历时短,兼有强连雨	洮河中下游、湟水谷地,兰州—银川干流河段	190年	影响小
河口—龙门（河龙）	陕北、晋北高原	局地性暴雨,强度大但多历时短、范围小	陕北、晋北河川谷地	76年	重要影响
汾河、涑水河（汾涑）	太行山、吕梁山区	同上	太原、临汾、运城盆地	140年	重要影响
龙门—三门峡（龙三）	渭河、泾河、北洛河、秦岭山地	夏季多大暴雨;秋季多连强雨、历时长	渭河盆地	108年	重要影响
三门峡—花园口（三花）	环洛阳周边山地	多大暴雨,且历时长	洛阳周边及洛河、沁河流域	102年	重大影响
大汶河	鲁东山地	多大暴雨,但历时短	东平湖泄洪区	50年	影响不大