资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 3-19.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.01.01
郑景云1,4, 文彦君2,3, 方修琦3
收稿日期:
2019-12-12
修回日期:
2019-12-23
出版日期:
2020-01-25
发布日期:
2020-01-25
作者简介:
郑景云,福建莆田人,研究员,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail: <email>zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn</email>
基金资助:
ZHENG Jingyun1,4, WEN Yanjun2,3, FANG Xiuqi3
Received:
2019-12-12
Revised:
2019-12-23
Online:
2020-01-25
Published:
2020-01-25
摘要:
根据近40年在黄河中下游地区气候、灾害、植被与土地利用变化历史等方面的研究成果,综合分析了过去2000年黄河中下游地区温度、干湿、极端旱涝等的变化特征,以及历史农耕发展对土地覆被的改变和垦殖率变化的总体趋势;并从长期变化视角简要讨论了这些变化与黄河下游地区泥沙淤积、决口改道的宏观关系。主要结论有:过去2000年黄河中下游地区温度与干湿呈显著多尺度周期波动,且中游和下游地区的干湿变化并不完全同步;极端旱涝发生频率存在阶段性差异。至公元初前后,黄河中下游地区就已被开发为一个垦殖范围与今相近的农业区,其自然植被分布极为有限,且其后的农耕垦殖强度虽有大幅波动,但总体呈增加趋势。上述因素变化相互交织影响了黄河中、下游水沙输送平衡、河道淤积和河床稳定,是引发历史上黄河下游多次重现“筑堤—淤积—悬河—决口改道”循环过程的重要因素。这些认识可为进一步科学理解黄河中下游地区的环境变化规律及其与下游地区河流安澜的关系提供历史背景依据。
郑景云, 文彦君, 方修琦. 过去2000年黄河中下游气候与土地覆被变化的若干特征[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(1): 3-19.
ZHENG Jingyun, WEN Yanjun, FANG Xiuqi. Changes of climate and land cover in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River over the past 2000 years[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(1): 3-19.
表1
公元960年来中国长江以北地区发生的大范围持续性重旱事件[46,47]"
持续年份 | 受旱省份(市、区) | 重旱省份(市、区) |
---|---|---|
989—991 | 河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南 | 河南 |
1073—1075 | 河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南 | 山东、河北、陕西 |
1209—1211 | 河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南 | 山东、河北 |
1370—1372 | 北京、河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南 | 山东、河北 |
1440—1442 | 河北、山西、陕西、宁夏、山东、河南 | 山西、陕西 |
1483—1485 | 北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南 | 山西、陕西、甘肃 |
1527—1529 | 北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南 | 全区 |
1585—1590 | 北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、青海、山东、河南 | 河北、山西、河南 |
1616—1618 | 北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南 | 河北、山东 |
1637—1643 | 北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、山东、河南 | 河南、河北、山西、陕西、山东 |
1689—1692 | 北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、山东、河南 | 山西、陕西 |
1721—1723 | 北京、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南 | 河北、山东、河南 |
1784—1786 | 河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、山东、河南 | 山东、河南 |
1856—1858 | 北京、河北、山西、陕西、山东、河南 | 河北 |
1876—1878 | 北京、天津、河北、山西、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、山东、河南 | 山西、河南 |
表2
历史时期黄河流域的主要暴雨区及引发的洪涝灾害简要特征[8,22,52]"
区间及简称 | 主要暴雨区 | 降雨特征 | 区域性洪灾分布区 | 发生区域性特大 洪灾*重现期 | 对下游干流 洪水的影响程度 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
黄河上游 | 积石山及周边高山地区 | 暴雨频次低、历时短,兼有强连雨 | 洮河中下游、湟水谷地,兰州—银川干流河段 | 190年 | 影响小 |
河口—龙门(河龙) | 陕北、晋北高原 | 局地性暴雨,强度大但多历时短、范围小 | 陕北、晋北河川谷地 | 76年 | 重要影响 |
汾河、涑水河(汾涑) | 太行山、吕梁山区 | 同上 | 太原、临汾、运城盆地 | 140年 | 重要影响 |
龙门—三门峡(龙三) | 渭河、泾河、北洛河、秦岭山地 | 夏季多大暴雨;秋季多连强雨、历时长 | 渭河盆地 | 108年 | 重要影响 |
三门峡—花园口(三花) | 环洛阳周边山地 | 多大暴雨,且历时长 | 洛阳周边及洛河、沁河流域 | 102年 | 重大影响 |
大汶河 | 鲁东山地 | 多大暴雨,但历时短 | 东平湖泄洪区 | 50年 | 影响不大 |
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