集体林地确权到户对林地流转的政策效果分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.07.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地确权对土地流转有着重要的作用。本文利用6个省的6个县、为期7年近700个样本农户的面板数据,应用内生转换模型,对中国新一轮集体林地确权到户政策的林地流转效果进行了分析。研究发现：①集体林地确权具有内生性;②集体林地确权促进了农户林地的流转,确权使确权户林地流入概率增加了6%,流出林地概率增加了1.7%;③若对未确权的农户进行确权（反事实分析）,则会使林地流入和流出概率分别增加59%和43.6%;④集体林地确权年限越长,农户林地流入和流出的可能性越大,确权的长期效果更明显。鉴于此,迫切需要进一步强化集体林地确权,给农户一个学习参与林地流转的机会,稳步推进集体林地流转。

关键词: 集体林权制度改革, 林地确权, 林地流转, 内生转换模型

Abstract:

The confirmation of land property rights has an important role in land circulation. Based on panel data collected from six provinces, six counties and nearly 700 households over seven years, we used the endogenous switching probit model (ESP) to analyze the influence of confirming collective forest land property rights to households on forest land circulation behavior in China’s new round of collective forest rights reform. We found that there exists endogeneity in the confirmation of collective forest land property rights. Confirming collective forest land property rights to households promotes farmer participation in the forest land circulation market. Farmers who possess forest land tenure certificates have a 6% higher probability of renting in collective forest land and a 1.7% higher probability of renting out collective forest land than those farmers who do not possess. Entitling property rights to those farmers who do not have forest land tenure certificates results in a 59% likelihood of renting in collective forest land and a 43.6% likelihood of renting out collective forest land. The longer the term of confirming collective forest land property rights is, the more likely farmers will rent in and rent out their forest land, and the more obvious the long-term effect of confirming property rights. It is urgent that China further strengthen the confirmation of collective forest land property rights, give farmers a chance to learn to participate in the circulation market of forest land, and steadily advance the circulation of collective forest land.

Key words: the reform of collective forest land tenure, confirm of forest land property rights, forest land circulation, Switching Probit Model

朱文清, 张莉琴. 集体林地确权到户对林地流转的政策效果分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(7): 1407-1417.

Wenqing ZHU, Liqin ZHANG. The impact of confirming collective forest land property rights to households on the forest land circulation behavior of farmers[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(7): 1407-1417.

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案例县	2003年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2013年
清原	10.49	64.51	73.60	75.65	76.16	82.19	86.01
丹棱	8.31	10.30	83.28	85.19	88.71	92.56	91.48
遂昌	0.55	76.74	76.74	77.12	76.16	87.10	82.64
顺昌	32.89	56.74	56.58	54.85	62.43	61.15	57.53
洪江	0.19	0.35	43.52	79.00	85.58	85.64	89.37
环江	0.12	2.32	2.32	18.00	37.37	49.37	72.12

变量	2003年	2008年	2013年
流入（是=1,否=0）	0.03 (0.16)	0.04 (0.20)	0.06 (0.24)
流出（是=1,否=0）	0.00 (0.06)	0.01 (0.11)	0.03 (0.17)
是否确权（是=1,否=0）	0.09 (0.28)	0.51 (0.50)	0.73 (0.45)
户主年龄/岁	43.44 (10.45)	48.43 (10.45)	53.26 (10.33)
户主是否村干部（是=1,否=0）	0.22 (0.41)	0.22 (0.41)	0.19 (0.39)
户主受教育年限/年	7.06 (2.72)	7.06 (2.72)	7.19 (2.81)
家庭人口数/人	4.13 (1.39)	4.13 (1.39)	3.35 (1.29)
打工劳动力投入比例/%	29.65 (0.33)	33.64 (0.34)	28.58 (0.35)
林地面积/hm²	2.72 (96.28)	2.96 (95.87)	2.98 (81.89)
村委会到县城距离/km	43.34 (38.12)	43.38 (38.13)	43.26 (37.94)
海拔/m	493.58 (201.26)	493.61 (201.39)	494.58 (202.69)

变量	第一阶段	第二阶段		第一阶段	第二阶段
变量	是否确权(D)	流入	流出	ln(林地已确权的年限)	流入	流出
是否确权的估计值		2.269***	1.867***
		(0.060)	(0.222)
ln(林地已确权的年限)估计值					0.363***	0.307***
					(0.022)	(0.060)
第一大姓占全村人数比例	-0.519***			-4.965***
	(0.031)			(0.162)
Wald chi2(Joint significance)		2 261.470***	267.670***		606.430***	81.750***
Log pseudo likelihood		-3 385.521	-2 975.620		-11 406.653	-10 990.522
Wald chi2(Wald test of exogeneity)		137.160***	18.750***		93.940***	11.740***
样本量	4 811	4 811	4 811	4 811	4 811	4 811

变量	流入第一阶段	流入第二阶段		流出第一阶段	流出第二阶段
变量	流入第一阶段	D = 1	D = 0	流出第一阶段	D = 1	D = 0
户主年龄	0.009***	-0.024***	-0.023***	0.009***	0.003	0.008
户主年龄	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.009)
户主是否村干部	0.112**	0.104	0.590***	0.098*	-0.168	-0.199
户主是否村干部	(0.052)	(0.076)	(0.118)	(0.052)	(0.126)	(0.258)
户主受教育年限	-0.007	-0.031**	0.010	-0.009	-0.047**	-0.007
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.023)	(0.008)	(0.021)	(0.034)
ln(家庭人口数)	0.140***	-0.026	-0.461***	0.153***	0.027	-0.175
	(0.054)	(0.088)	(0.142)	(0.055)	(0.125)	(0.211)
打工劳动力投入比例	-0.005	0.321***	-0.369*	-0.019	0.011	-0.239
	(0.061)	(0.090)	(0.189)	(0.061)	(0.133)	(0.271)
ln(林地面积)	0.030***	0.078***	0.223***	0.030***	-0.049***	-0.030
	(0.007)	(0.022)	(0.041)	(0.007)	(0.015)	(0.030)
ln(村委会到县城距离)	-0.099***	0.128***	0.091*	-0.109***	0.051*	-0.216***
	(0.016)	(0.021)	(0.050)	(0.019)	(0.028)	(0.065)
ln(海拔)	0.414***	-0.437***	-0.894***	0.429***	-0.251**	-0.311*
	(0.043)	(0.065)	(0.119)	(0.043)	(0.098)	(0.161)
第一大姓占全村人数比例	-1.785***			-1.687***
	(0.107)			(0.107)
年度虚拟变量	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
截距	-1.782***	3.814***	3.522***	-1.863***	1.833**	0.027
	(0.311)	(0.497)	(0.771)	(0.311)	(0.891)	(1.125)
Rho(ρ₁₁/ρ₀₁, ρ₁₂/ρ₀₂)		-1.419***	-6.348		-1.271***	-2.727
Rho(ρ₁₁/ρ₀₁, ρ₁₂/ρ₀₂)		(0.204)	(52.580)		(0.297)	(4,461)
Wald chi2(Joint significance)	1 255.020***			1 236.410***
Log pseudo likelihood	-3 228.380			-2 822.649
Wald chi2(Wald test of independent eqns.)	65.000***			15.530***
样本量	4 811			4 811

平均处理效应	样本量	流入均值	流入标准误	流出均值	流出标准误
ATT	2 434	0.060	0.058	0.017	0.026
ATU	2 377	0.590	0.202	0.436	0.175