The underlying resource logic of the current great power competition is gradually shifting from oil competition to competition for high-tech mineral resources. The layout of the high-tech mineral industry chain and supply chain is transitioning from a focus on cost, efficiency, and technology to an emphasis on security, stability, and politics, showing evolutionary characteristics such as diversification and regionalization. Since June 2019, Western countries, including the United States, have gradually established a localized and exclusive resource governance system focused on high-tech minerals. This governance system has undergone a rapid transformation from a loose network of raw material supplying countries (seller’s markets), to a closely linked network among developed countries (buyer’s markets), and then to a supply chain “long-arm jurisdiction” network governed by ESG. Based on a comprehensive review and analysis of the connotations of terms such as high-tech minerals, critical minerals, and strategic minerals, this study provides a systematic definition of the high-tech mineral industry and supply chains. It then focuses on analyzing the competition for high-tech mineral resources among great powers, the trends in the reconstruction of industry chains and supply chains, and the potential risks that the entire industry chain and supply chain may face. Furthermore, from the perspectives of research and management, this study presents relevant frontier issues: (1) The dynamic definition of high-tech mineral resources and the theoretical framework of its industry and supply chains; (2) Scientific interpretation of the competition for high-tech mineral resources and the process of industry and supply chain reconstruction among great powers; (3) Risk assessment, monitoring, and early warning of multiple reconstruction of the primary and recycled resource industry chain and supply chain; (4) Coordinated management and security measures for the primary and recycled resource industry chain and supply chain.
[Objective] As a key support for strategic emerging industries, clean energy supply chains play a central role in the global energy transition. In the context of the “dual carbon” goals and energy security demands, it is essential to systematically analyze the development paths and trends of clean energy supply chains, so as to provide decision-making references for enhancing the competitiveness of strategic emerging industries and building a new energy system. [Methods] This study employs bibliometric analysis and knowledge graph methods to construct a theoretical framework for clean energy supply chain research. It systematically reviews the research hotspots, frontier progress, and evolutionary trends in this field from 2005 to 2024, and thoroughly analyzes the key challenges and future trends. [Results] (1) The research shows distinct phases of development. Before 2016, the number of publications remained low with slow growth. After 2016, the field entered a rapid development stage, characterized by a regional pattern dominated by Europe and North America, with emerging Asian economies rapidly catching up. (2) In terms of research hotspots, recent studies have focused on risk optimization strategies, innovations in modeling and technology, and sustainable management of clean energy supply chains. (3) Regional comparative studies have shown significant differences between domestic and international research frontiers. In both cases, the evolution follows three stages: initiation, fluctuation, and rapid development. The research content shows increasing diversity and continuous expansion into new domains. (4) At the practical level, a series of key challenges persist, including uneven resource distribution, bottlenecks in key technologies, and information asymmetry. [Conclusion] Based on the above findings, future research on clean energy supply chains should focus on reconstructing a theoretical framework for supply chains with multi-dimensional integration, conducting in-depth analysis from multifunctional perspectives, revealing interactive feedback mechanisms of complex systems, and optimizing sustainable management pathways in alignment with strategic security objectives.
[Objective] Strategic metal resources are key production factors in cultivating new quality productive forces. Improving the allocation efficiency of these resources has become an essential requirement and a key approach for developing new quality productive forces. However, traditional development approaches have resulted in the current allocation efficiency of strategic metal resources facing serious challenges in promoting the development of new quality productive forces. [Methods] Based on relevant literature from 1996 to 2025, this study systematically reviews the evaluation methods, driving factors, and improvement pathways of allocation efficiency of strategic metal resources across the entire industry chain in the context of the development of new quality productive forces. [Results] (1) Traditional evaluation methods for resource allocation efficiency mainly analyze single or multiple stages of the industry chain, but fail to systematically examine allocation efficiency from the perspective of the entire industry chain. This may lead to biased assessments of the allocation efficiency of strategic metal resources. (2) Existing studies consider factors such as economic, technological, policy, and social influences on resource allocation efficiency. However, in the context of new quality productive force development, it is necessary to comprehensively examine both traditional and emerging factors, focusing on their heterogeneous and synergistic impacts across different stages of the industrial chain. In-depth research on emerging factors is also needed. (3) Existing approaches to improving the allocation efficiency of strategic metal resources across the entire industrial chain are primarily based on single-policy measures and qualitative analysis. In the context of new-quality productive force development, these pathways should take into account the coordination and compatibility among various policy tools. [Conclusion] To meet the demands of new quality productive force development, future research should integrate the “economic-environmental-social” system coupling framework and construct multiple hybrid models to evaluate the allocation efficiency of strategic metal resources. On this basis, a combination of multiple models and objective data should be used to test the effects of driving factors and improvement pathways. This study provides a scientific and effective improvement pathway for enhancing the allocation efficiency of strategic metal resources across the entire industry chain and for the development of new quality productive forces.
[Objective] Critical metals serve as important raw materials for energy transition. The rapid development of the new energy industry has led to substantial growth in the demand for critical metals, posing severe challenges to their supply-demand balance. Therefore, investigating how to achieve supply-demand balance of critical metals in China’s new energy industry under future energy transition has become a pressing issue to be addressed. [Methods] Based on a multi-entity perspective and taking lithium as an example, this study employed a scenario analysis approach to construct a dynamic simulation model for supply-demand balance of new energy metals from 2023 to 2050. [Results] (1) Under different technological progress scenarios, simulation of production decisions by primary mining enterprises and recycling enterprises revealed that primary lithium supply showed drastic fluctuations, while recycled lithium supply demonstrated a stable growth trend. Lithium demand from the electric vehicle manufacturing sector grew rapidly from 2023 to 2035 and then stabilized after 2035. For the energy storage device sector, lithium demand reached its peak around 2038. (2) Under supply-side mining technological progress scenarios, the growth of lithium demand followed an S-shaped trend. In the early stage, lithium supply capacity was lower than demand, but with technological progress and production capacity expansion in later stages, supply eventually exceeded demand. (3) Under supply-side recycling technological progress scenarios, the early-stage growth of lithium supply remained relatively moderate, while lithium supply in the later stage gradually approached the lithium demand levels amid fluctuations. [Conclusion] Without relying on technological progress, China’s new energy industry cannot achieve critical metal supply-demand balance in the future. It is necessary to adopt targeted technological progress pathways such as mining and recycling combined with the characteristics of the new energy industry, while strengthening coordination between supply and demand entities, and coordinating the development and utilization of primary and secondary metals to alleviate long-term supply-demand conflicts.
[Objective] Copper, as a critical strategic mineral resource, plays a pivotal role in the low-carbon energy transition of the power sector and the process of carbon neutrality. China is a country with a shortage of copper resources. Scientifically predicting the future demand and scrap generation of copper resources in the power system holds significant strategic importance for ensuring national copper resource security and optimizing resource recycling systems. [Methods] Based on the internationally recognized Integrated Policy Assessment Model (IPAM) under the global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, as well as China’s “dual carbon” scenario and the dynamic material flow analysis method, this study estimated the in-use stock, demand, theoretical scrap volume, and degree of external dependence of copper in China’s power system from 1950 to 2050. [Results] (1) China’s installed power generation capacity was projected to increase from 1.85 million kW in 1950 to 5.4-6.0 million kW by 2050. The share of renewable energy generation was expected to increase with policy stringency, reaching 80% in the 1.5 °C scenario, 73% in the “dual carbon” scenario, and 67% in the 2 °C scenario by 2050. (2) By 2050, the in-use stock, demand, and theoretical scrap volume of copper in China’s power system were projected to reach 140-160 million tons, 6.5-8.1 million tons, and 4.0-4.8 million tons, respectively, representing an increase of approximately 3 times, 1.5 times, and 10 times compared to the levels in 2022. (3) In the 1.5 °C global warming scenario, China’s power system showed the highest copper demand, stock, and theoretical scrap volume, followed by China’s “dual carbon” scenario. (4) China’s degree of external dependence on copper resources showed a significant downward trend. In the 1.5 °C global warming scenario, it was projected to decline from 70% in 2023 to 48% by 2050, while it was expected to decrease further to 40% in the “dual carbon” scenario. In contrast, in the 2 °C global warming scenario, the dependence was projected to decrease to 38%. [Conclusion] China’s low-carbon power transition will significantly increase copper demand. The utilization of recycled copper can reduce the degree of external dependence, but short-term supply risks remain. It is recommended to strengthen resource exploration, recycling, and supply-demand assessment to ensure copper resource security.
[Objective] Rare mineral resources are critical raw materials supporting strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and their supply security has become a major concern in resource risk governance for major countries worldwide. This study aims to identify and evaluate the evolutionary characteristics of supply risks across the entire product chain of rare mineral resources required by China’s strategic emerging industries, and to provide early warning of future risk trends, thereby providing a scientific basis for resource security planning in related Chinese industries. [Methods] A “risk triangle” analytical framework—comprising hazard, exposure, and vulnerability—was developed to elucidate the formation mechanisms of supply risks across the entire product chain of rare mineral resources. Five key resources critical to the development of China’s strategic emerging industries—lithium (Li), beryllium (Be), niobium (Nb), tantalum (Ta), and zirconium (Zr)—were selected, and their supply risks from upstream primary mineral products to downstream end-use products from 2010 to 2020 were quantified and classified using the BGR-VW method. Furthermore, a GM(1,1) grey prediction model was employed to provide early warning for supply risks of these resources from 2025 to 2030. [Results] (1) Li and Be exhibited relatively low supply risks (“relaxed” level). Nb and Ta maintained “moderate” risk levels throughout the study period, with Nb’s average risk and Ta’s risk volatility exceeding those of Li and Be. The average supply risk of Zr was high (“tight” level), imposing severe constraints on downstream new materials industries. (2) The sources of supply risk for different resources exhibited heterogeneous characteristics. Li’s supply risk was jointly driven by hazard and vulnerability. Be’s supply risk was primarily influenced by persistently high hazard levels and relatively wide fluctuations in exposure. Nb’s risk arose predominantly from exposure. Ta’s risk was driven by both hazard and exposure. Zr’s risk was driven by exposure and vulnerability. (3) During 2025-2030, Li, Nb, and Ta were projected to maintain “relaxed” supply risk levels. The supply risk of Be would rise from “relaxed” to “tight” level, and the supply risk of Zr would remain at the “tight” level. [Conclusion] Based on the identified driving factors and future evolution trends of supply risks across China’s entire rare mineral product chain, it is recommended to optimize the “hazard-exposure-vulnerability” triangle framework to selectively reduce supply risks of rare mineral resources. This approach aims to provide robust support for the development of strategic emerging industries and ensure their stable and healthy operation.
[Objective] Secondary resources from “urban minerals” play an increasingly significant role in the sustainable supply of resources. Dysprosium is an important rare earth element widely used in products such as household appliances, automobiles, and wind turbines. Accurately assessing the recycling potential of dysprosium is an urgent scientific issue that needs to be addressed. [Methods] This study used a bottom-up approach to calculate the consumption of dysprosium in China from 2001 to 2023. The consumption and scrap conditions of dysprosium from 2024 to 2050 were predicted to assess the recycling potential of dysprosium from “urban minerals”. [Results] (1) The consumption of dysprosium increased rapidly from 2001 to 2023, primarily being applied in wind turbines, electric vehicles, and air conditioners. (2) From 2024 to 2050, dysprosium consumption in household appliances, automobiles, and e-bikes would first increase and then decline, while consumption in wind turbines would continue to rise. (3) Dysprosium consumption would peak at about 7200 t by 2042, then remain relatively stable at about 6600 t between 2041 and 2050, mainly concentrated in electric vehicles and wind turbines. (4) With the increase of product scrap, the recycling potential of dysprosium would continuously rise, reaching about 6500 t by 2050, which is expected to meet the future demand. [Conclusion] Although China ranks among the world’s top holders of dysprosium reserves, the current mining volume is unlikely to meet future product demand. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a circular economy and recycle dysprosium from “urban minerals” to fill the demand gap, reduce the pressure on primary mineral extraction, and ensure the security of dysprosium resource supply.
[Objective] The implementation of the “dual carbon” goals in the transportation sector significantly affects the scale and performance of new energy vehicles, thereby altering the consumption demand for critical minerals in these vehicles. To actively address the supply and demand pressure on critical minerals, it is imperative to evaluate the impact of the “dual carbon” goals on the consumption demand of critical minerals for new energy vehicles in China. [Methods] Based on the Gompertz model, this study predicted the sales of new energy vehicles, and calculated and set the related parameters for new energy vehicles. The consumption demand for critical minerals in new energy vehicles from 2022 to 2035 was estimated under different “dual carbon” policy scenarios and lithium battery technology pathways. [Results] (1) The per-vehicle consumption of critical minerals varied across different types of new energy vehicles, with lithium consumption increasing in passenger battery electric vehicles and special-purpose battery electric vehicles. (2) The consumption demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium in new energy vehicles was expected to increase rapidly. Under the benchmark policy scenario, the annual growth rates of consumption demand were 15.97%~16.10%, 13.15%~17.01%, 7.42%~12.66%, 12.05%~14.24%, 11.94%~14.12%, and 11.94%~14.12%, respectively. (3) The production of new vehicles was the main contributor to the consumption demand for critical minerals in new energy vehicles, although its contribution was expected to decline. Passenger battery electric vehicles remained the primary contributor to consumption demand for critical minerals in new energy vehicles. Meanwhile, the contribution from battery swapping was projected to increase. (4) When adopting the same ternary battery technology pathways, new energy vehicles under aggressive policy scenarios demonstrated increased demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium. Under identical “dual carbon” policy scenarios, new energy vehicles adopting high-nickel and nickel-cobalt-aluminum battery technologies had higher demand for nickel, while those using low-nickel alternatives had higher demand for cobalt. [Conclusion] From 2022 to 2035, the rapid expansion of China’s new energy vehicle market, along with changes in per-vehicle mineral consumption, will significantly increase demand for critical minerals while exacerbating supply-demand tensions, particularly for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. To mitigate these pressures, it is necessary to promote green consumption of new energy vehicles, advance the development of a circular economy, optimize the global layout of industrial and supply chains, and strengthen technological research and development.
[Objective] This study aims to explore the impact trends of future new energy vehicle development on the demand and sustainable supply capacity of critical metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel in China. From the perspective of coupled allocation of primary and secondary resources, combined scenarios are proposed to ensure their sustainable supply, thereby providing a reference for resolving critical metal constraints during the energy transition and ensuring national resource security. [Methods] By integrating scenario analysis with a stock-driven material flow model, this study assessed the sustainable supply capacity of critical metals for new energy vehicles in China from 2010 to 2023. Furthermore, this study simulated the impact of coupled primary and secondary resources on critical metal demand under scenarios of different electric vehicle market scales and battery technology pathways from 2024 to 2050, and evaluated the sustainable supply capacity of critical metals across multiple scenarios. [Results] (1) From 2010 to 2023, China’s critical metal supply for new energy vehicles was primarily based on primary resources. In 2023, the demand for lithium and cobalt in this field reached 36000 tons and 18000 tons, respectively. The nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) technology exhibited an evolution trend of “high nickel and low cobalt”. (2) Extending the lifespan of batteries could simultaneously reduce the demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The evolution of electrochemical technologies could significantly reduce the demand for cobalt and nickel while improving their sustainable supply capacity. (3) The combined scenarios integrated the advantages of supply- and demand-side scenarios, exerting positive impact on the resource sustainability index (SI), accumulated primary resource consumption (AC), secondary resource expansion multiplier (MU), and supply-demand ratio (SDR) for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. This could alleviate the bottleneck of resource constraints to some extent. [Conclusion] To ensure the sustainable development of China’s new energy vehicle industry and resource security, it is essential to advance the development of electrochemical technologies, improve the utilization efficiency of power batteries, optimize policy combinations for the coupled allocation of primary and secondary resources, and establish a strategic reserve system for critical metals.
[Objective] Lithium resources are regarded as the “lifeline” of the energy transition, yet their supply faces significant geopolitical risks. In this context, it is of great significance to clarify the impact of geopolitical risk on the resilience of the lithium resource trade network to ensure the security of lithium resource supply. [Methods] Based on trade data for lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from 22 countries (regions) from 2002 to 2022, this study explored the impact of geopolitical risks on the resilience of lithium resource trade network using a complex network method and a panel regression model. [Results] (1) During the sample period, the resilience of the lithium resource trade network showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a particularly significant increase after 2015. (2) Geopolitical risks had a significant negative impact on the resilience of lithium resource trade network, with the impact being more pronounced in core countries and regions of the network and in high-risk countries and regions. (3) Geopolitical risks negatively affected the resilience of lithium resource trade network by hindering trade cooperation and reducing foreign direct investment. [Conclusion] To mitigate the negative impact of geopolitical risks on lithium resource trade, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive early warning mechanism for emergency risks, promote the implementation of diversified import substitution strategies for lithium resources, and enhance the multi-layered global trade system. In addition, cooperation and risk management between major lithium-producing areas and neighboring countries (regions) should be strengthened.
[Objective] Resource nationalism and trade protectionism policies have significantly increased the uncertainties in the spatial evolution of international trade patterns and price fluctuations of lithium metal in power batteries. Exploring the resource trade patterns and price trends from the perspective of market game equilibrium is crucial for ensuring the supply security of lithium metal. [Methods] Based on the dynamic material flow analysis of lithium metal in power batteries, this study extracted the complex game relationships between major resource-producing and resource-consuming countries (regions) and their key constraints. A multi-regional market game equilibrium model for the global lithium metal for power batteries was constructed to solve the spatial trade patterns and resource price trends under multiple policy scenarios from 2023 to 2035. [Results] (1) From 2023 to 2035, global demand for lithium metal was expected to show a rapid growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of about 19.4%, reaching 3.725 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035. The major demand would come from the world’s leading new energy vehicle manufacturing countries (regions), including China, the European Union, and the United States. (2) By 2035, the main suppliers of lithium metal were expected to be resource-endowed countries such as Argentina, Chile, and Australia. China would remain the largest importer, with its import dependence projected to reach as high as 76.0%-84.9% despite a substantial increase in domestic production capacity. The United States, the European Union, the Republic of Korea, and Japan were projected to be potential major global importers of lithium metal. (3) Due to rising demand and declining ore grades, the long-term market equilibrium prices under all scenarios were expected to exceed the historical average level of 89 thousand yuan/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent before the lithium price surge in August 2021. The market equilibrium price under the scenario of downstream industry localization and trade market discrimination was expected to reach 109 thousand yuan/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent, and under the scenario of upstream supply disruption and alliance with upstream industries, it could rise to 117-121 thousand yuan/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent. [Conclusion] This study analyzes the trade patterns of lithium metal from the perspective of market game equilibrium, expanding the scope of trade pattern research. Additionally, based on multiple policy design scenarios, it provides more practically oriented decision-making support for major resource-consuming countries (regions) in formulating strategies to ensure the security of lithium metal supply for power batteries.
[Objective] The petrochemical industry is crucial for China’s economic stability. Investigating the structural evolution and vulnerability of China’s petrochemical industry chain trade network in the context of Sino-US strategic competition is of great significance for ensuring the industry’s secure and stable growth. [Methods] Complex network analysis was employed to analyze the structural evolution of China’s petrochemical industry chain trade network from 2007 to 2022. A Sino-US petrochemical industry chain trade network model was constructed to compare the influence of both countries. Scenario simulations based on the GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) bilateral relations data were conducted to evaluate the vulnerability of China’s petrochemical industry chain trade network. [Results] (1) China’s petrochemical industry chain made significant advancements in the field of petrochemical products, shifting from a raw material-dependent model to a product-export-oriented model. The trade partner structure expanded from an Asia-centered pattern to a global network, with continuous optimization of the industry chain trade network. However, structural vulnerabilities persisted in the basic chemical raw material network. (2) China and the United States shared highly overlapping trade partners in synthetic materials. The United States maintained its traditional advantages in petroleum and derived petroleum products, while China demonstrated stronger influence in the field of petrochemical products. (3) In terms of network vulnerability, China’s basic chemical raw material network showed relatively high vulnerability, particularly in the import segment, whereas the petroleum network exhibited diversification and stability. The organic chemical raw material network maintained stability with minor adjustments, and the petroleum products and synthetic material networks demonstrated low vulnerability. Under Sino-US strategic competition, decoupling from specific countries (regions) would lead to high vulnerability in China’s petroleum product imports and the import-export segments of basic chemical raw materials, but the impact on other segments of the industry chain remained relatively controllable. [Conclusion] China should deepen the “crude-to-chemicals” strategy, strengthen domestic energy security and international cooperation, and establish a risk assessment and early warning system to enhance the resilience and stability of the industry chain.
[Objective] Cobalt, as a key strategic resource, shows a pronounced geographical separation between supply and demand, with growing concerns over trade security. Systematically identifying cobalt trade patterns and their evolving risks is crucial for maintaining the stability of industry chains and optimizing resource security policies. [Methods] Focusing on cobalt material trade, this study selected 29 cobalt products across four stages of the industry chain—mining, production, manufacturing, and waste management—to construct a global cobalt material trade network. Based on the network topology from 2012 to 2022, trade risk indices for the global cobalt material trade network are developed from three dimensions: import concentration, resource acquisition difficulty, and trade intermediation. [Results] (1) The geographical distribution of cobalt material trade patterns showed a core clustering trend. The heterogeneity in the mining and manufacturing stages weakened, while that in the production stage increased, with no significant evolutionary trend observed in the waste management stage. (2) The trade risks of major importing countries (regions) constrained the stability of the global cobalt trade network. Although high-risk countries (regions) have improved their intermediary control and resource acquisition capabilities, import concentration remained the dominant factor influencing trade risks. (3) Trade dependency relationships among countries (regions) differed significantly across the mining, production, manufacturing, and waste management stages, and the driving forces influencing these dependencies varied as well. In the mining stage, dependencies were primarily concentrated in Asia and Africa. In the production stage, trade dependencies began to spread globally. In the manufacturing stage, dependencies among Asian countries strengthened significantly. In the waste management stage, trade dependencies between North American and European countries were notably close. [Conclusion] The stability of the global cobalt material trade network depends on major importing countries (regions). As a major importer, China should strengthen the diversification of its cobalt source supply, promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading, accelerate the development of waste resource recycling systems, and improve risk warning and response mechanisms to ensure supply chain security, consolidate its strategic position, and gain initiative in recycling.
[Objective] Investigating the evolution and mechanism of the global aluminum resource trade network contributes to a deeper understanding of the evolution process and underlying logic of the global aluminum trade pattern, which is of great significance for ensuring the security of aluminum resource supply. [Methods] Using the complex network analysis method, this study constructed a global aluminum resource trade network to characterize its trade patterns and spatiotemporal characteristics from 2011 to 2020. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was then employed to reveal the evolution mechanism of the global aluminum resource trade network, aiming to provide decision-making references for ensuring the sustainable supply of aluminum resources in China. [Results] (1) The scale of global aluminum resource trade experienced constant fluctuations, and the trade relationships between countries (regions) gradually strengthened. However, only a few countries (regions) in the global aluminum resource trade network possessed the majority of trading partners. Germany, India, and the United States occupied central positions in the global aluminum trade network, while the centrality of the Netherlands, China, and Turkey increased significantly. These countries had strong influence on the aluminum resource trade network. (2) The global aluminum resource trade exhibited distinct reciprocity, and the interaction of endogenous and exogenous factors jointly promoted the dynamic evolution of the global aluminum resource trade network. Meanwhile, aluminum resource trade remained inactive between countries with similar levels of economic development, and countries with low per capita income showed a stronger willingness to export aluminum. Trade protection policies hindered the flow of global aluminum resources. In addition, language differences were not the main barrier to aluminum resource trade between countries, while geographical distance and proximity significantly affected the evolution of the global aluminum resource trade network. [Conclusion] Based on a clear understanding of the characteristics and evolution mechanism of the global aluminum resource trade network, China should fully leverage its core position and bridging role in the aluminum resource trade network, coordinate both domestic and international markets and implement targeted trade strategies to ensure the security and stability of China’s aluminum resource supply.
[Objective] High-purity quartz is a key raw material for the development of both the chip and new energy industries. Influenced by factors such as resource endowment and technological barriers, the international trade patterns of high-purity quartz among countries are complex, with interdependent import-export relationships. Traditional research focusing on bilateral trade relationships fails to capture the impact of indirect trade relationships on trade dependence. This study measures trade dependence using “chain-type” trade relationships formed among multiple countries, which not only characterizes the trade flows of high-purity quartz products but also clarifies the targets and sources of dependence. [Methods] Based on international trade data from 2012 to 2021, this study constructed a trade network for high-purity quartz, identified dependence paths by extracting trade flows, and quantitatively measured the trade dependence levels of countries by considering their positions on these paths. This approach clarifies the targets and sources of import dependence, thereby reflecting the supply security levels of high-purity quartz trade for each country. [Results] (1) The number of countries involved in high-purity quartz trade increased annually, but the import-export relationships remained concentrated among a few countries, including the United States, Germany, China, Japan, the United Kingdom and so on. (2) Trade flows exhibited distinct regional characteristics, primarily circulating through countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. (3) The United States was China’s main import dependence country, while Japan, Germany, and China were mutually dependent. The Czech Republic, France, and Italy had strong dependence on China for high-purity quartz supply. (4) Since 2016, China has gradually reduced its degree of external dependence on high-purity quartz trade. Continuous innovative breakthroughs in high-purity quartz product preparation technology have strengthened trade ties with other countries, significantly enhancing China’s influence and bargaining power in trade. [Conclusion] This study reveals the evolutionary patterns of dependence structures in global high-purity quartz trade through quantitative analysis, providing a scientific basis for developing supply chain resilience policies, systematically preventing supply chain risks, and formulating market regulation strategies.
[Objective] This study aims to analyze the mechanism by which adjustments in China’s graphite export structure affect its industrial international competitiveness, which is crucial for promoting the transformation of China’s graphite resource advantages into industrial advantages. [Methods] This study constructed a trade propagation model for graphite products based on multi-layer network theory to analyze the cascading impact of changes in the graphite export structure within the multi-layer trade network of graphite raw materials, primary products, and deep-processed products. [Results] (1) The main reason for the significant imbalance between China’s market share of graphite products and its industrial competitiveness was the relatively high proportion of graphite raw materials and primary products in exports. (2) Due to the close trade and production linkages among countries, China’s adjustments to its graphite export structure would have a significant impact on the graphite trade of other countries. Among these, China’s reduction in exports of graphite primary products had a more pronounced impact on the graphite trade of other countries. (3) Reducing exports of graphite raw materials and primary products could significantly enhance the industrial international competitiveness of China’s graphite products. Therefore, adjustments to the graphite export structure played a positive role in cultivating the competitive advantages of graphite products. However, the positive impact of the reduction in graphite raw material exports on industrial international competitiveness was not sustainable. When the reduction in graphite raw material exports exceeded a certain threshold (45%), the industrial international competitiveness of China’s graphite industry began to show a declining trend instead. [Conclusion] Therefore, when promoting the shift of its graphite export structure from raw materials to deep-processing products, China needs to limit the reduction in graphite raw material exports within a certain range to avoid the adverse impact of excessive reduction in graphite raw material exports on the international competitiveness of its graphite industry.
[Objective] Compared to conventional bulk metal markets, by-product critical metal markets are still in a rapid growth phase, where market fluctuations frequently occur due to periodic supply-demand mismatches. These markets exhibit more intense price volatility and more complex linkages. Investigating the linkage effects in these markets can provide valuable reference for market participants to better understand market dynamics and respond promptly to the impact of price fluctuations and volatility. [Methods] This study selected copper and cobalt, two by-product critical metals, as the research objects. Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition, nonlinear Granger causality tests, DCC-GARCH model, and MSVAR model, the study analyzed the bidirectional price relationships, dynamic market associations, market linkage evolution, and their influencing factors across different time scales from 2008 to 2022. [Results] (1) The price relationship between copper and cobalt exhibited significant nonlinearity, with time-varying and heterogeneous characteristics. (2) The markets of copper and cobalt had strong linkages, and volatility spillover effects showed temporal heterogeneity. (3) In the short term, copper-cobalt market linkages transitioned among three regimes: stable, low volatility, and high volatility. In the long term, they were mostly in high-volatility or stable regimes. (4) Speculation and geopolitical risk factors were key influencing factors of copper-cobalt market linkages in the short term, while supply and long-term economic development trends were key influencing factors in the long term. [Conclusion] The price relationship between copper and cobalt exhibits significant nonlinear characteristics across multiple time scales, with time-varying and heterogeneous properties. Copper-cobalt market linkages are strong, and volatility spillover effects vary with the time scale. In the short term, the market linkages transition among three regimes: stable, low volatility, and high volatility. After 2017, high volatility has become the norm, largely driven by geopolitical risks. In the long term, the market has mostly remained in stable and high-volatility regimes, with a full shift to high volatility after 2021, increasingly influenced by macroeconomic trends and supply-demand fundamentals.
