As an important means of financial supply-side structural reform for the ecological civilization strategy, green finance holds important value in addressing global climate change and promoting the implementation of sustainable development goals. It is becoming a new field that urgently needs to be explored in geography and related disciplines. Based on a review of the origins, theoretical connotations, and literature trends of green finance research, this study explores the research topics of green finance from the perspective of sustainable development, focusing on industrial development, environmental regulation, market transactions, effect evaluation, emerging technologies, and international competition and cooperation. It is pointed out that current green finance research still faces many difficulties and challenges in basic concepts and theoretical development, data acquisition and technology application, model selection and empirical measurement, and multiple influences and complex mechanisms. The future research directions of green finance are prospected as follows. (1) Using the mechanism “black box” as a path, green finance and sustainable development under the new human-land relationship can be revealed. (2) Supported by the theoretical framework, the full-system research of multiple factors, multiple levels and multiple goals can be advanced. (3) Led by emerging technologies, research methods in green finance can be innovated. (4) Guided by empirical research, high-quality studies will be conducted based on the disciplinary advantages of geography. (5) With the goal of translating research results into practice, the implementation and application of policies and practices should be promoted.
[Objective] This study aims to systematically diagnose the evolution characteristics and inherent contradictions in the nutrient supply and demand of China’s agri-food system from 2000 to 2022, providing a scientific basis for the transformation of the agri-food system under the framework of the greater food approach. [Methods] This study constructed a food-to-nutrient conversion model to first estimate the nutrient supply available for direct consumption by residents. Subsequently, based on dual scenarios of current consumption patterns and healthy diets, a nutrient supply-demand balance index and a comprehensive nutrient self-sufficiency index were developed. Based on this framework, the evolution of supply and demand dynamics for the three major nutrients (calorie, fat, and protein) between 2000 and 2022 across multiple scales in China was systematically estimated, including grain producing and consuming functional zones, nine major agricultural regions, and provincial units. Furthermore, the divergent trends in nutrient supply between animal-based and plant-based foods were revealed. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2022, the total supply of all three major nutrients increased by over 30%, yet the spatial distribution remained highly concentrated, with major grain-producing regions contributing more than 70% of the national nutrient supply. (2) Under the current dietary structure, the disparity in nutrient supply between animal-based and plant-based foods was intensifying. The supply gap for animal-based fats continued to widen, with its supply-demand balance index declining from 0.74 in 2013 to 0.67 in 2022. In contrast, due to relatively insufficient consumption of plant-based foods, plant-based protein was significantly oversupplied, with the balance index consistently above 7.0 during the same period. (3) Under a healthy diet scenario, there was a significant potential gap in nutrient supply, particularly a severe shortage in plant-based nutrient supply. Among these, the issue of plant-based protein was the most prominent, with its self-sufficiency gap index increasing from 1.51 in 2000 to 2.21 in 2022. (4) Under the healthy diet scenario, the national comprehensive self-sufficiency index increased only slightly from 1.04 to 1.12 during the study period, while regional disparities intensified. In contrast, the index in major grain-consuming regions dropped sharply from 0.92 to 0.77. [Conclusion] China’s agri-food system faces the dual risks of structural imbalance and spatial misalignment in nutritional resources. The current supply-driven model of nutrient supply is insufficiently aligned with the strategic goals of the Healthy China. Future policies should promote the transformation of the agri-food system toward a demand-driven, nutrition- and health-oriented model, optimize production layouts and circulation systems, and focus on addressing the gaps in key nutrients such as plant protein, so as to strengthen the comprehensive guarantee capacity of national nutrition security.
[Objective] This study aims to reveal the impact of unbalanced and insufficient development on the well-being of urban residents from the perspective of land resource misallocation, thereby providing policy references for alleviating the current main contradiction in Chinese society and achieving a better life for the people. [Methods] Based on theoretical analysis, this study used data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014 to 2020 and macroeconomic statistics, and employed OLS mixed regression models, ordered probit and logit regression models, and instrumental variable methods to investigate the impact of land resource misallocation on the well-being of urban residents. [Results] (1) Land resource misallocation had a significant negative impact on the well-being of urban residents. On average, for each unit increase in the degree of land resource misallocation, the well-being of urban residents significantly decreased by 0.0205. (2) Mechanism analysis revealed that land resource misallocation intensified income inequality within and between regions, thereby affecting the well-being of urban residents. (3) Further analysis showed that land resource misallocation led to excessive capital concentration, loss of production efficiency, corporate non-productive rent-seeking, and real estate speculation, resulting in the effects of primary distribution inequality. It also caused the distortion of public fiscal expenditure structure, leading to the effects of secondary distribution inequality. The combined action of these two aspects further intensified regional income inequality. [Conclusion] Alleviating land resource misallocation and thereby reducing income inequality is an important approach to improving the well-being of urban residents.
[Objective] With socioeconomic development, ecosystem services have deteriorated, and human-land conflicts have intensified. Coordinating the conflicts between land use and ecological conservation—maintaining the stability and health of ecosystems while ensuring land needs for human development—has become a critical issue that needs to be addressed in the field of regional sustainable development. [Methods] Therefore, this study focused on Hohhot, a typical semi-arid city in northern China. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use change patterns under three different scenarios for 2030: natural development, ecological conservation, and urban construction. The InVEST model was employed to evaluate habitat quality, water yield, carbon sequestration services, and soil retention. Furthermore, multiple correlation analysis methods were used to quantitatively reveal trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2020, construction land in Hohhot increased by 1175.32 km2, while forest land increased by 105.64 km2. Grassland decreased by 189.28 km2, and water areas shrank by 5.60 km2. By 2020, water bodies accounted for only 1.90% of the total land area, indicating an increasing constraint of water resources on urban development in Hohhot. (2) From 2000 to 2020, water yield, habitat quality, and carbon sequestration services in Hohhot showed declining trends. Soil retention services exhibited an upward trend. In the 2030 scenario simulations, the ecological protection scenario demonstrated relatively higher values for all four ecosystem services compared to the other two scenarios. (3) From 2000 to 2020, trade-offs were observed between water yield and habitat quality, water yield and soil retention, and water yield and carbon sequestration in Hohhot. Synergies were observed between soil retention and habitat quality, soil retention and carbon sequestration, and habitat quality and carbon sequestration. (4) Among the different scenarios for 2030, the ecological protection scenario exhibited the lowest trade-off intensity for water yield and habitat quality, water yield and soil retention, and water yield and carbon sequestration. Consequently, this scenario proved most effective in alleviating the pressure on the water yield service and slowing the degradation trend of ecosystem services in semi-arid cities. [Conclusion] The sustainable development of semi-arid cities must transition from traditional spatial expansion models to refined management approaches constrained by the carrying capacity of ecosystem services. This requires optimizing land use patterns based on the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, rigorously preserving ecological foundations, and pursuing a green development path grounded in water resource balance.
[Objective] This study aims to scientifically analyze the supply-demand status of regional ecosystem services and utilize this analysis to guide the optimization of ecological spatial patterns, thereby providing references for territorial spatial development, conservation, and governance. [Methods] The Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration was selected as the study area. Based on multi-source data and model methods, this study evaluated the comprehensive supply levels, historical evolution, and supply-demand coordination status of ecosystem services in 2005 and 2020, and proposed ecological space optimization schemes accordingly. [Results] (1) The supply of ecosystem services in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration showed significant differences, as well as trade-off and synergy characteristics, in spatiotemporal and category dimensions. Except for ecosystem cultural services, the supply levels of habitat quality, food supply, and urban cooling services showed different degrees of reduction during the study period. (2) The hierarchical structure of ecosystem service demand in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration showed a spindle-shaped pattern, with demand intensity generally higher in the north and lower in the south and gradually decreasing from the centers of the three cities (Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan) toward the periphery. (3) The supply and demand relationship of ecosystem services demonstrated overall coordination, yet structural mismatches and low-level coordination characteristics were prominent. The spatial pattern exhibited a concentric structure centered on the built-up areas of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, characterized by surplus in the periphery and deficit in the core. Supply-demand risks primarily involved habitat quality and urban cooling services, predominantly concentrated in the core of built-up areas north of the “Xiangtan County-Liling City” line. (4) The optimization of ecological space should focus on key ecosystem service supply source areas, core demand areas, ecological corridors, critical ecological nodes, and ecological risk nodes, and construct a multi-dimensional linkage system of zonal management, network connectivity, and node construction. [Conclusion] The assessment of ecosystem service supply and demand enables precise identification of regional supply-demand conflicts and latent risks, providing a scientific basis for ecological space adjustment. The resulting optimization schemes and strategies for ecological space can effectively enhance regional ecosystem functions and sustainable development.
[Objective] With the rapid development of digital technologies, numerous emerging models derived from them have significantly influenced farmers’ farmland transfer behavior. This study aims to explore the impact of enhanced digital capabilities among farmers on their farmland transfer behavior, thereby providing insights to improve farmland utilization efficiency. [Methods] Based on data from 5243 households collected through the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2016 to 2020, this study employed methods such as double machine learning, the lasso algorithm, and lasso residual regression to examine the impact and specific mechanism of enhanced digital capabilities among farmers on their farmland transfer behavior at the household level. [Results] (1) Overall, the enhancement of farmers’ digital capabilities exerted a significant impact on rural farmland transfer, facilitating farmers’ farmland transfer. Compared to digital technology access, the enhancement of farmers’ digital capabilities in the dimensions of digital platform usage and digital information acquisition exerted a stronger impact on their farmland transfer behavior. (2) At the micro-sample level, the promoting effect of digital capability enhancement on farmers’ farmland transfer was stronger among young and middle-aged farmers, those with higher education levels, and those with higher income levels. At the regional sample level, the enhancement of digital capabilities among farmers located east of the Aihui-Tengchong line demonstrated a stronger positive impact on farmland transfer. (3) The enhancement of farmers’ digital capabilities primarily facilitated their farmland transfer behavior through two channels: promoting diversified employment opportunities and expanding their social networks. However, it simultaneously inhibited farmland transfer by reducing farmers’ trust in government. Specifically, the exposure to negative policy-related information on digital platforms at the current stage significantly weakened farmers’ trust in government regulatory capacity and institutional guarantees. However, this negative mechanism was not universal and exhibited heterogeneity across age and education levels. [Conclusion] Enhancing digital capabilities while mitigating the resulting risks to policy trust is a crucial driver for unlocking the digital dividends of farmland transfer.
[Objective] Under the dual context of ensuring national food security and enhancing the resilience of agricultural industry chain, understanding the relationship between farmland quality protection and industry chain participation is of great significance. This study aims to investigate the impact of industry chain participation on farmers’ farmland quality protection behavior and its underlying mechanisms, providing empirical evidence for policy formulation. [Methods] Based on panel data from 19066 rural households in the 2019 and 2020 waves of China’s National Rural Fixed Observation Points Survey, this study employed two-way fixed effects models and panel instrumental variable methods to empirically analyze the impact of industry chain participation on farmers’ farmland quality protection behavior. [Results] (1) Both the decision to participate in the industry chain and the degree of participation significantly enhanced the intensity of farmers’ farmland quality protection behavior. Compared with non-participating households, participating households increased their farmland quality protection behavior by approximately 3.7% on average. (2) Both horizontal and vertical integration had positive effects on farmland quality protection behavior, with e-commerce participation showing the strongest impact. (3) Industry chain participation expanded farmers’ access to mechanized services and realized “service scale operation”, thereby enhancing the intensity of farmers’ farmland quality protection behavior. Additionally, agricultural technical efficiency and village industrial structure positively moderated the effect of industry chain participation on farmers’ farmland quality protection behavior. [Conclusion] Industry chain participation alters farmers’ market position, sales channels, and operational scale through organizational constraints and market incentives, enabling more scattered smallholders to effectively connect with large agricultural product markets and achieve farmland quality protection. In the future, it is essential to further leverage the role of agricultural industrial organizations in linking and leading farmers, improve socialized service systems, optimize village industrial structures, and vigorously develop rural e-commerce modes, thereby promoting the coordinated improvement of economic and ecological benefits in agricultural production.
[Objective] The marketization of collectively-owned commercial construction land marks a major institutional breakthrough in China’s land use reform. This study aims to investigate how this policy affects the supply of state-owned industrial land, thereby providing policy references for optimizing the marketization system of collectively-owned commercial construction land and establishing a unified urban-rural construction land market. [Methods] Using the two batches of marketization pilots for collectively-owned commercial construction land launched in 2015 and 2016 (hereinafter referred to as the “marketization pilots”) as a quasi-natural experiment, a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model was constructed. County-level balanced panel data from 2012 to 2019 were employed to investigate the impact of the marketization pilots on the supply of state-owned industrial land and their underlying mechanisms. [Results] (1) The marketization pilots significantly increased the supply of state-owned industrial land, indicating that local governments still dominated the allocation of industrial land. (2) This promotional effect varied depending on the central government’s deployment batches and local governments’ response methods, showing greater prominence in the second batch of pilot regions, counties (or county-level cities) with relatively developed secondary industries, and less developed regions of central and western China. (3) Two key mechanisms through which the marketization pilots promoted the supply of state-owned industrial land were identified: facilitating the relocation of urban stock enterprises to rural areas to enable the resupply of existing state-owned industrial land, and increasing the allocation of new construction land quotas for local governments. [Conclusion] Under local government intervention, the marketization pilots have a stronger promoting effect than a crowding-out effect on the supply of state-owned industrial land. Accordingly, clear boundaries should be delineated to constrain local government intervention, and the systematic planning and coordination of different marketization channels for collectively-owned construction land should be strengthened, thereby promoting the development of the market for collectively-owned commercial construction land.
[Objective] This study aims to reveal the characteristics and evolutionary mechanisms of digital product trade relations of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), providing policy references for promoting the development of digital product trade and optimizing the digital trade cooperation pathways in the BRI. [Methods] The complex network analysis method was employed to reveal the structural characteristics of the digital product trade network in the BRI from 2006 to 2022, and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) was applied to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms of the digital product trade network. [Results] (1) The digital product trade network in the BRI exhibited low density, showing typical “small-world” and hierarchical core-edge structural characteristics, with the broker blocks including China and Singapore located at the center of the network. (2) The centrality and diversity characteristics of the sample countries showed a spatial distribution pattern of “higher in the east and west, lower in the middle”, while China, with increasingly diversified trading partners, gradually occupied the core position of the network. (3) In terms of endogenous mechanisms, the multi-connectivity, transmission closure, convergence, and stability significantly promoted the formation of BRI digital product trade relations, while the variability exhibited a significant inhibitory effect. (4) In terms of exogenous networks, liner shipping network, policy coordination network, regional trade agreement network, geographical proximity networks and common country networks played a significant promoting role, while geographic distance network demonstrated a significant inhibitory effect. (5) Regarding node attributes, the homophily characteristics such as stronger digital economy, human capital, economic development, trade openness, and weaker trade barriers, as well as the national attribute characteristics such as economic scale, industrial structure, digital technology application, technological innovation, high-tech industry development, and institutional quality, all significantly promoted the formation of BRI digital product trade relations. [Conclusion] The digital product trade network of BRI is characterized by weak connection, hierarchy, and differentiation and its structural evolution is affected by both endogenous and exogenous mechanisms.
[Objective] As a product of the deep integration of finance and technology, digital finance is an important engine for promoting sustainable and high-quality economic development, and whether it can effectively drive the formation of new quality productive forces in resource-based enterprises has become a key issue. [Methods] Using data from 958 A-share listed companies in China from 2008 to 2022, this study comprehensively employed the entropy method, a two-way fixed effects model, and a panel threshold model to analyze the impact of digital finance development on new quality productive forces of resource-based enterprises and its underlying mechanisms. [Results] (1) Digital finance development significantly enhanced new quality productive forces in resource-based enterprises by synergistically integrating environmental regulation and financial resource allocation functions, exhibiting an increasing marginal effect. Structural dimension analysis indicated that coverage breadth exerted the most prominent driving effect, followed by usage depth, while the impact of digitalization level followed a U-shaped relationship. (2) Mechanism tests demonstrated that digital finance primarily promoted the development of new quality productive forces through alleviating financing constraints, driving green technology innovation, and enhancing green transition awareness. (3) Heterogeneity analysis showed that the enhancement effect of digital finance development varied significantly depending on regional marketization levels, enterprise ownership types, and enterprise lifecycle stages. [Conclusion] To synergistically promote the development of new quality productive forces in resource-based enterprises, it is recommended to strengthen the environmental regulation synergistic function of digital finance while focusing on expanding its service coverage breadth. A policy support system integrating “financing support, technology drive, and awareness cultivation” should be established. Targeted policy interventions should be implemented according to threshold effects, and differentiated regional and enterprise support strategies should be formulated.
[Objective] Exploring whether precision agriculture technology can promote the synergistic growth of farmers’ production efficiency and household income is crucial for its continuous promotion and application. [Methods] Based on the micro-survey data of 724 grain-growing households in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi provinces in 2022, the endogenous switching regression model was used to empirically analyze the synergistic effects of precision agriculture technology on farmers’ production efficiency and household income, as well as the underlying mechanisms. [Results] (1) Precision agriculture technology could significantly improve the production efficiency and household income of farmers, achieving the synergistic growth of efficiency and income across different income groups. (2) Heterogeneity analysis showed that the enhancement effects of precision agriculture technology on both production efficiency and household income were higher for the new-generation farmers than for the old-generation farmers, and higher for farmers with lower levels of land fragmentation than for those with higher levels of land fragmentation. (3) Mechanism analysis showed that precision agriculture technology improved production efficiency by saving capital and labor inputs and increasing agricultural output. Precision agriculture technology improved household income by promoting farmers to expand their business scale and engage in off-farm employment. Optimizing the allocation of labor and capital resources constituted the mechanisms through which precision agriculture technology exerted synergistic effects on farmers’ production efficiency and household income. [Conclusion] Precision agriculture technology can achieve the synergistic growth of farmers’ production efficiency and household income. In the future, it is essential to continue promoting the development and expansion of precision agriculture technology, thereby improving the efficiency of agricultural production and increasing the income of farmers.
[Objective] In the context of increasing uncertainties and instabilities in the external environment, investigating the resilience of the global food supply chain network is crucial for ensuring global food security. [Methods] From the perspective of complex networks, this study analyzed the global food supply chain network pattern and evaluated the resilience of the global food supply chain in 2022 using two simulation methods: intentional attacks and random attacks. [Results] (1) The global food supply chain network was complex and diverse, exhibiting a “multi-point radiation” phenomenon, with many and scattered importing countries (regions) and few and concentrated exporting countries (regions). The bilateral food trade volumes between most countries (regions) were relatively small, and only a few countries (regions) had relatively large bilateral food trade volumes. The global food trade network was mainly dominated by core countries. (2) The characteristic changes of the global supply chain network for four types of grains—wheat, corn, rice, and soybean—after being attacked by nodes were relatively consistent. The attacks on core node countries in the network had a greater impact on the entire supply chain network, and the loss of the function of key node countries affected the network even more. Moreover, intentional attacks on nodes had a greater impact on the supply chain network than random attacks. (3) The global food supply chain network demonstrated a certain degree of redundancy and resilience. When trade routes in the supply chain were blocked, the network could still maintain a certain level of connectivity and information transmission capability. [Conclusion] The stability of the global food supply chain network primarily depends on core countries (regions). Therefore, to ensure global food security, it is essential to strengthen the stability of core exporting countries, promote diversified trade cooperation, and enhance global supply chain supervision and resilience building.
[Objective] Cities serve as the key units for achieving provincial energy management goals, and optimizing their energy spatial allocation is conducive to enhancing the provincial energy utilization efficiency and ensuring energy security. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban energy spatial allocation under provincial total energy consumption control, providing references for refined energy management. [Methods] Using 261 cities in 21 provinces in China from 2006 to 2021 as the research sample, this study used the stochastic frontier analysis to measure energy spatial allocation, energy spatial misallocation, and provincial energy spatial allocation efficiency of these cities. The spatiotemporal evolution trends of these indicators were then characterized, and the influencing factors of energy spatial allocation were finally identified. [Results] (1) In terms of energy spatial allocation, the number of cities with severe under-allocation and severe over-allocation both showed a downward trend. Most cities experienced mild under-allocation and showed a contiguous distribution, while cities with severe over-allocation were relatively scattered in geographical distribution. (2) After the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, the degree of energy spatial misallocation significantly decreased. Only a few cities faced severe energy spatial misallocation, mainly distributed in provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Shandong. (3) The energy spatial allocation efficiency in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Hunan was relatively low, mainly due to the presence of cities with both high energy consumption and high energy intensity within these provinces. Except for Shandong and Gansu, provincial energy spatial allocation efficiency was significantly optimized. From the perspective of the four major economic regions, the central and western regions had low efficiency, while the eastern and northeastern regions had relatively high efficiency. In terms of six major administrative regions, North China and Southwest China had low efficiency. The Northeast China, East China, and Central South China exhibited high efficiency, and the Northwest China had persistently low efficiency. (4) In terms of influencing factors, increases in urbanization and trade openness intensity helped alleviate misallocation in cities with energy under-allocation, while industrial agglomeration, human capital, and technological innovation were key factors in reducing misallocation in cities with energy over-allocation. [Conclusion] The energy siphon effect of developed cities and the persistently high energy intensity in some cities are the root causes of energy spatial misallocation. Promoting the structural optimization of inter-city energy quotas and reducing the energy intensity in over-allocation cities are two critical pathways to enhance energy spatial allocation efficiency.
[Objective] Geopolitical risks are considered extreme risks that can cause dramatic fluctuations in energy prices. This study aims to explore the impact of global geopolitical risks on energy price volatility (crude oil, natural gas, and heating oil), thereby providing theoretical support and policy references for maintaining energy price stability under the influence of geopolitical risks and safeguarding China’s energy security. [Methods] From a theoretical perspective, this study systematically explored the underlying mechanisms of energy price volatility by considering both energy returns and volatility. Based on this, the quantile-on-quantile approach and the causality-in-quantiles test were used to examine the asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility across different risk levels and market conditions from June 28, 1990, to January 6, 2020. Moreover, the heterogeneous effects of different types of geopolitical risks （geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts) on energy returns and volatility were further explored. [Results] (1) In both high-risk and low-risk phases, geopolitical risks could cause extreme values in energy returns across different market environments. (2) In a bull market, lower geopolitical risks levels had a suppressive effect on energy volatility, while higher geopolitical risks levels amplified energy volatility, leading to extreme values within a specific range. (3) Geopolitical risks could predict energy returns and partial energy volatility under different market conditions. (4) The impact of different types of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility demonstrated significant differences, with geopolitical threats exerting a more pronounced impact. [Conclusion] Through empirical research, this study reveals the asymmetry and heterogeneity of the impacts of geopolitical risks on energy price volatility across different risk levels and market conditions. This provides a scientific basis for mitigating the adverse impacts of such risks, stabilizing energy market prices, and safeguarding China’s energy security.
[Objective] Export trade driven by foreign consumption is an important cause of carbon emission growth in China. Clarifying the impact of export trade on carbon emissions can provide new insights for carbon emission reduction. [Methods] Using panel data of 281 Chinese prefecture-level and above cities from 2005 to 2022, this study examined the impact of export trade on urban carbon emissions. Additionally, it employed a moderating effect model to investigate the roles of location characteristics, and climate characteristics, and finally uses the spatial Durbin model to analyze the impact of geographic correlation on the effects of export trade on carbon emissions. [Results] (1) Export trade had a significant positive impact on urban carbon emissions. With other conditions remaining constant, a doubling of the export trade volume increased carbon emissions by 0.37 million tons, indicating that export trade significantly promoted the growth of carbon emissions in Chinese cities. (2) The carbon emission effects of export trade exhibited pronounced north-south heterogeneity. Northern cities demonstrated relatively larger carbon emission effects from export trade, with significant east-central-west gradient differentiation observed among them. Altitude and temperature had a negative moderating effect on the carbon emission effects of export trade, while atmospheric pressure demonstrated a positive moderating effect. (3) A significant spatial spillover effect of export trade on urban carbon emissions was observed, indicating that a city’s export trade affected the carbon emissions of surrounding cities. Moreover, the indirect impact of neighboring cities’ export trade on a city’s carbon emissions exceeded the direct impact from its own export trade. [Conclusion] The carbon emission effects of export trade exhibit significant geographical differentiation and spatial spillover, with the latter being particularly prominent. To achieve the “dual carbon” goals, China should implement differentiated urban carbon reduction policies and construct a cross-regional coordinated carbon emission governance network.
[Objective] In the 16-Chinese character water governance guideline guiding principle of “prioritizing water conservation, seeking spatial equilibrium, implementing systematic governance, and leveraging the roles of both government and market”, “spatial equilibrium” serves as the fundamental approach to resolving the mismatch between water resource distribution and socioeconomic development demands. [Methods] This study constructed a two-stage diagnostic model to systematically diagnose the water resource spatial equilibrium in the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2021. In the first stage, the spatial equilibrium of water resources within the 61 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin was diagnosed. The spatial gravity center model was used to assess the spatial equilibrium degree of three subsystems—water resources, socioeconomic development, and ecological environment—within the 61 cities. In the second stage, the spatial equilibrium of water resources between provinces was diagnosed. Based on the spatial equilibrium degrees of prefecture-level cities derived from the first stage, the Dagum Gini coefficient was applied to assess the spatial equilibrium of water resources within provinces and between adjacent provinces in the Yellow River Basin, and the causes of spatial imbalance were analyzed. [Results] (1) From 2012 to 2021, over 70% of the 61 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin achieved spatial equilibrium of water resources, while those failing to meet this standard accounted for no more than 30%, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shandong. (2) The spatial equilibrium of water resources within provinces of the Yellow River Basin was as follows. Shanxi and Henan provinces achieved a high level of spatial equilibrium, Inner Mongolia and Gansu remained at a low level of such equilibrium, and the remaining provinces failed to reach a state of spatial equilibrium. (3) Adjacent provincial pairs were generally in a state of spatial disequilibrium, with only two pairs (Gansu-Inner Mongolia, Shanxi-Henan) achieving spatial equilibrium. [Conclusion] The Yellow River Basin has not achieved spatial equilibrium of water resources at the prefecture-level city, provincial, or adjacent inter-provincial levels. Among these, differences between provinces are the dominant factor driving spatial disequilibrium of water resources in the basin, contributing 59.29% as revealed by Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition.
