不同地理环境下农户致贫机理的多尺度比较——以河南省为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.09.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Multiscale exploration of the poverty-inducing factors of farming households in different geographical environments is of great significance for revealing the causes of rural poverty and improving the effectiveness of poverty reduction. Based on the hierarchical linear model and multidimensional data on poverty, the differences of poverty-inducing factors of farming households in Henan Province and their mechanisms are comparatively studied. The spatial scales include household, village, and county, and the geographical environments cover plain region, hilly areas, and mountain land. The results show that: (1) There are significant differences in the poverty-inducing factors at various spatial scales. For Henan Province as a whole, 82.0% of the poverty variances can be explained at the household scale, while 10.6% and 7.4% can be explained at the village and county scales, respectively. The main poverty-inducing factors concentrate at the household scale under all geographical environment conditions. Factors at the village scale play a more important role in leading to poverty than at the county scale. (2) Poverty-inducing factors differ significantly in different geographical environments. Dependency burden with children, income dependence on planting, and dependence on transferable payments are the main poverty-inducing factors for poor farming households. The direct poverty-inducing factors in plain areas are high medical expenses and dependency burden with children. Income dependence on planting is the key poverty-inducing factor in hilly and mountainous areas. (3) The macro-background of farming households’ poverty is the geographical and geomorphological conditions and agriculture-related investments at the county scale. Income dependence on traditional agriculture and heavier family burden are individual factors for poverty. The average elevation of villages and the amount of per capita arable land have aggravated the effect of individual factors. (4) Regional poverty reduction policies should not only emphasize the regional differences at the county level, but also pay attention to the characteristics of households and villages. The dominant position of farmers in overcoming poverty should be supported, and the demand-oriented policy system of poverty reduction and implementation need to be improved.

Key words: hierarchical linear model, geographical environment, mechanism of poverty, multiscale effects, rural revitalization, poverty-stricken farming households, Henan Province

GAO Junbo,YU Chao,GE Dazhuan,CHEN Jianhua. Multiscale analysis of poverty creation for farming households in different geographical environments: A case study of Henan Province[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(9): 1690-1702.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Figure 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

The “family-village” two levels model in different geographical environments"

地貌类型	空间尺度
地貌类型	农户尺度模型	村域尺度模型
平原地区	$Y = π 0 + π 1 F_OLD + π 2 F_YOUNG + π 3 F_WORKER + π 4 F_IN_PLANT + π 5 F_IN_WORK + π 6 F_OUT_MED + e$	$π 0 = β 00 + β 01 V_DIS 1 + r 0$ $π 4 = β 40 + β 41 V_AREA + r 4$ $π 5 = β 50 + β 51 V_WORKER + r 5$
丘陵地区	$Y = π 0 + π 1 F_OLD + π 2 F_LABOR + π 3 F_IN_PLANT + π 4 F_IN_TRANS + π 5 F_OUT_PLANT + e$	$π 0 = β 00 + β 01 V_DIS 2 + r 0$ $π 3 = β 30 + β 31 V_DIS 2 + β 32 V_RATE + r 3$
山地地区	$Y = π 0 + π 1 F_LABOR + π 2 F_IN_PLANT + π 3 F_IN_WOKR + π 4 F_IN_TRANS + π 5 F_OUT_PLANT + e$	$π 0 = β 00 + β 01 V_AREA_A + β 02 V_VACANT + r 0$ $π 2 = β 20 + β 21 V_NET + β 22 V_RATE + r 2$ $π 3 = β 30 + β 31 V_DIS 1 + β 32 V_RATE + β 33 V_VACANT + r 3$ $π 4 = β 40 + β 41 V_AREA_A + β 42 V_POPU + r 4$ $π 5 = β 50 + β 51 V_AREA_A + r 5$

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Final estimation of the “family-village” two levels model in different geographical environments"

固定效应					随机效应
地貌类型	户、村2级变量	系数	标准误	T检验	变量	方差变化	解释率/%
平原	截距	2.320	0.206	11.247***	r₀	0.145*→0.122*	15.86
	村与县政府距离	0.010	0.003	3.584***
	60岁以上老人比重	0.408	0.099	4.132***
	16岁以下未成年人比重	-0.436	0.195	-2.233**
	常年务工人口比重	0.604	0.224	2.694***
	种植业收入比重	1.339	0.582	2.302**	r₄	0.507→0.180	64.50
	村耕地面积	-0.001	0.000	-3.225***
	务工收入比重	2.044	0.233	8.769***	r₅	0.273*→0.163*	40.29
	村外出务工人口比重	-3.046	0.813	-3.746***
	医疗费用支出比重	-0.304	0.134	-2.272**
	贫困程度（因变量）	—	—	—	e	0.848→0.679	19.93
丘陵	截距	2.572	0.138	18.644***	r₀	0.087*→0.080*	8.05
	村与乡镇政府距离	-0.015	-0.015	-3.336***
	60岁以上老人比重	0.752	0.111	6.789***
	具有劳动能力人口比重	0.707	0.150	4.718***
	种植业收入比重	-3.220	0.626	-5.140***	r₃	0.821*→0.711	13.40
	村与乡镇政府距离	-0.072	0.029	-2.523**
	村贫困发生率	3.742	1.198	3.122**
	转移性收入比重	-0.852	0.247	-3.448***
	种植业支出比重	0.515	0.315	1.637*
	贫困程度（因变量）	—	—	—	e	0.759→0.510	32.81
山地	截距	3.256	0.245	13.282***	r₀	0.350*→0.263*	24.86
	村人均耕地面积	-1.120	0.335	-3.345***
	村空闲宅基地比例	3.046	0.943	3.231***
	具有劳动能力人口比重	0.150	0.047	3.223***
	种植业收入比重	-4.956	0.737	-6.729***	r₂	1.583*→0.613*	61.28
	村人均纯收入	0.000	0.000	3.415***
	村贫困发生率	5.792	1.275	4.543***
	务工收入比重	0.350	0.144	2.433**	r₃	0.071*→0.064*	9.86
	村与县政府距离	0.002	0.001	2.112**
	村贫困发生率	-0.771	0.355	-2.173**
	村空闲宅基地比例	1.693	0.648	2.612**
	转移性收入比重	1.351	0.354	3.815***	r₄	0.137*→0.099*	27.74
	村人均耕地面积	-2.119	0.469	-4.517***
	村总人口	0.000	0.000	-2.578**
	种植业支出比重	2.236	0.713	3.137***	r₅	3.466**→1.511	56.41
	村人均耕地面积	-1.820	0.728	-2.117**
	贫困程度（因变量）	—	—	—	e	1.036→0.897	13.42

Table 6

Figure 2

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地区	地貌类型	总人口/万人	GDP/亿元	人均GDP/（元/人）	贫困县类型
郸城县	平原	135.03	221.73	16421.13	省定
太康县	平原	151.00	230.61	15272.17	省定
民权县	平原	92.06	202.47	21993.62	国定
上蔡县	平原	152.56	201.73	13222.69	国定
洛宁县	丘陵	49.13	169.57	34515.14	国定
鲁山县	丘陵	95.33	151.02	15841.73	国定
淅川县	山地	71.86	211.74	29465.84	国定
新县	山地	36.85	117.94	32005.48	国定

层次	类型	变量名称	解释	中位数	平均值
	因变量	Y	贫困程度	3	2.59
户	文化程度	F_EDU	学历	1	1.31
	家庭人员构成	F_OLD	60岁以上老人比重/%	25.0	34.3
		F_YOUNG	16岁以下未成年人比重/%	0.0^c	17.1
		F_LABOR	具有劳动能力人口比重/%	40.0	41.9
		F_FARMER	常年务农人口比重/%	33.0	40.4
		F_WORKER	常年务工人口比重/%	0.0^c	9.4
	收入结构	F_IN_PLANT	种植业收入比重/%	23.0	31.3
		F_IN_WORK	务工收入比重/%	0.0^c	25.7
		F_IN_PROP	财产性收入比重/%	0.0^c	1.5
		F_IN_TRANS	转移性收入比重/%	24.0	35.1
	支出结构	F_OUT_PLANT	种植业支出比重/%	7.0	13.5
		F_OUT_LIVE	日常生活支出比重/%	22.0	27.8
		F_OUT_MED	医疗费用支出比重/%	31.0	35.9
		F_OUT_EDU	教育支出比重/%	0.0^c	13.7
村	区位条件	V_ALTITUDE	村平均高程/m^a	79.00	173.50
		V_DIS1	村与县政府距离/km	25.00	28.65
		V_DIS2	村与乡镇政府距离/km	4.00	4.96
	发展基础	V_AREA	村耕地面积/亩	1782.00	1962.23
		V_POPU	村总人口/人	1814.50	1952.60
		V_NET	村人均纯收入/元	4350.00	4600.27
		V_AREA_A	村人均耕地面积/亩	1.00	0.98
		V_RATE	村贫困发生率/%	20.7	21.8
	发展潜力	V_VACANT	村空闲宅基地比例/%	4.4	7.4
		V_LABOR	村具有劳动能力人口比重/%	58.3	55.6
		V_WORKER	村外出务工人口比重/%	25.3	25.4
县	自然环境	C_TERRAIN	地形^b	—	—
		C_TEMP	年平均气温/℃	14.65	14.76
		C_PREC	年平均降水/mm	771.45	818.28
		C_FROST	无霜日/天	221.50	222.21
	区位条件	C_DIS	距市政府距离/km	68.95	76.25
	经济发展水平	C_PGDP	人均GDP/元	19207.38	22342.23
		C_IN	一般财政收入/亿元	7.93	7.67
		C_OUT	涉农投资/亿元	4.73	5.42

户、村、县3级变量				随机效应
户、村、县3级变量	系数	标准误	T检验	变量	方差变化	解释率/%
截距	1.424	0.684	2.081*	r₀	0.117*→0.116*	0.9
				u₀₀	0.082*→0.059*	28.1
村耕地面积	0.000	0.000	-1.797*
县地形	0.172	0.158	1.090
县人均GDP	0.000	0.000	1.813
16岁以下未成年人比重	-0.619	0.114	-5.440***
常年务工人口比重	0.400	0.157	2.554***
种植业收入比重	-1.066	0.198	-5.374***	r₃	0.666*→0.327	50.9
村平均高程	-0.002	0.001	-2.131**
村人均纯收入	0.000	0.000	1.778*
务工收入比重	0.620	0.149	4.157***	r₄	0.088→0.076	13.6
村总人口	0.000	0.000	3.232***
转移性收入比重	-0.639	0.376	-1.700	r₅	0.163→0.092*	43.6
				u₅₀	0.003**→0.001	66.7
村耕地面积	0.000	0.000	2.885***
村人均耕地面积	-0.918	0.314	-2.922***
县地形	-0.147	0.177	-0.830
县涉农投资	0.111	0.088	1.254
种植业支出比重	0.492	0.189	2.598***
日常生活支出比重	0.251	0.108	2.318**
贫困程度（因变量）	—	—	—	e	0.907→0.742	18.2

Multiscale analysis of poverty creation for farming households in different geographical environments: A case study of Henan Province

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地貌类型	尺度	方差	比例/%
平原	户层	0.848	85.4
	村层	0.145	14.6
丘陵	户层	0.759	89.7
	村层	0.087	10.3
山地	户层	1.036	74.7
	村层	0.350	25.3

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