可再生能源发电份额对德国市场化电价的影响

孟思琦, 孙仁金, 郭风

Impact of renewable energy power generation share on Germany’s electricity prices

MENG Siqi, SUN Renjin, GUO Feng

表6 线性模型（1）和非线性模型（3）的风能与太阳能发电量的参数估计

Table 6 Estimation of wind and solar power generation of linear model (1) and nonlinear model (3)

$τ$	风能发电量				太阳能发电量
$τ$	$β_{τ}^{W}$	$β_{1, τ}^{W}$	$β_{2, τ}^{W}$	$β_{3, τ}^{W}$	$β_{tτ}^{S}$	$β_{1, τ}^{S}$	$β_{2, τ}^{S}$	$β_{3, τ}^{S}$
日指标
0.1	-0.178***	-0.400***	-0.177***	-0.161***	-0.067***	-0.474***	-0.054**	-0.028
0.2	-0.166***	-0.311***	-0.158***	-0.215***	-0.107***	-0.416***	-0.080***	-0.419**
0.3	-0.164***	-0.359***	-0.154***	-0.198***	-0.118***	-0.359***	-0.106***	-0.424**
0.4	-0.168***	-0.253***	-0.159***	-0.219***	-0.140***	-0.281***	-0.109***	-0.450**
0.5	-0.166***	-0.240***	-0.154***	-0.241***	-0.146***	-0.278***	-0.105***	-0.486*
0.6	-0.160***	-0.191***	-0.150***	-0.244***	-0.170***	-0.275***	-0.140***	-0.525*
0.7	-0.170***	-0.195***	-0.155***	-0.255***	-0.196***	-0.265***	-0.159***	-0.597*
0.8	-0.172***	-0.197***	-0.150***	-0.285***	-0.241***	-0.292***	-0.194***	-0.061
0.9	-0.184***	-0.221***	-0.166***	-0.345***	-0.267***	-0.369***	-0.245***	-0.141
高峰指标
0.1	-0.158***	-0.182**	-0.160***	-0.189***	-0.030*	-0.114	-0.035*	-0.074
0.2	-0.175***	-0.175***	-0.175***	-0.251***	-0.066***	-0.076	-0.065**	-0.078
0.3	-0.172***	-0.173***	-0.170***	-0.266***	-0.087***	-0.101*	-0.074***	-0.319*
0.4	-0.177***	-0.177***	-0.173***	-0.301***	-0.096***	-0.144**	-0.077***	-0.376*
0.5	-0.181***	-0.181***	-0.172***	-0.304***	-0.103***	-0.143***	-0.093***	-0.514*
0.6	-0.186***	-0.186***	-0.182***	-0.304***	-0.115***	-0.121***	-0.06***	-0.500*
0.7	-0.189***	-0.189***	-0.186***	-0.290***	-0.147***	-0.123***	-0.145***	-0.379
0.8	-0.203***	-0.203***	-0.197***	-0.334***	-0.156***	-0.144**	-0.158***	-0.141
0.9	-0.214***	-0.214**	-0.189***	-0.484***	-0.211***	-0.104**	-0.211***	-0.188
非高峰指标
0.1	-0.169***	-0.211***	-0.173***	-0.149***	-0.014	-0.769***	0.012	0.816
0.2	-0.166***	-0.197***	-0.164***	-0.178***	-0.094*	-0.640***	-0.054	-0.160
0.3	-0.161***	-0.209***	-0.150***	-0.164***	-0.155**	-0.528***	-0.075	-0.454
0.4	-0.157***	-0.194***	-0.157***	-0.165***	-0.146***	-0.407***	-0.095	-1.032
0.5	-0.156***	-0.192***	-0.154***	-0.162***	-0.149**	-0.508***	-0.089	-1.047
0.6	-0.153***	-0.214***	-0.147***	-0.164***	-0.146**	-0.471***	-0.070	-2.049*
0.7	-0.155***	-0.199***	-0.152***	-0.175***	-0.147***	-0.544***	-0.094**	-2.520*
0.8	-0.161***	-0.198***	-0.148***	-0.183***	-0.201***	-0.543***	-0.148***	-3.431*
0.9	-0.178***	-0.240***	-0.159***	-0.214***	-0.314***	-0.441**	-0.259***	-4.806