农户尺度的耕地撂荒影响因素及空间分异
郭贝贝, 方叶林, 周寅康

Influencing factors and spatial differentiation of cultivated land abandonment at the household scale
GUO Beibei, FANG Yelin, ZHOU Yinkang
表2 耕地利用行为多值Logit模型回归系数（对数）
Table 2 Results of multivariate logistics model of cultivated land utilization behaviors
层次 变量 退耕 显性撂荒 隐性撂荒 耕地转出 耕地转入
回归系数 边际效应 回归系数 边际效应
耕地投入产出 x1 -0.808*** 0.006 0.009*** -0.014*** 0.001 0.009 -0.024***
(0.160) (0.011) (0.001) (0.004) (0.001) (0.008) (0.007)
x2 -0.767*** 0.243 0.017*** -0.019 0.005 -0.466*** 0.137***
(0.284) (0.186) (0.004) (0.036) (0.005) (0.087) (0.040)
x3 -1.005*** -2.211*** -0.033*** -0.521*** -0.048*** -0.833*** 0.369***
(0.068) (0.093) (0.002) (0.019) (0.002) (0.028) (0.040)
x4 0.352** -2.615*** -0.064*** -0.074*** -0.001 -0.006 0.044***
(0.150) (0.207) (0.005) (0.009) (0.002) (0.019) (0.009)
x5 0.162 -2.415*** -0.057*** -0.032*** 0.007*** -0.054** -0.009
(0.176) (0.191) (0.005) (0.009) (0.002) (0.023) (0.012)
x6 0.456*** -2.685*** -0.068*** 0.039*** 0.014*** 0.087*** -0.001
(0.151) (0.240) (0.006) (0.008) (0.002) (0.018) (0.010)
耕地投入
产出		 x7 0.322** -2.794*** -0.068*** -0.054*** 0.003** 0.006 0.0165*
(0.164) (0.158) (0.004) (0.009) (0.002) (0.021) (0.010)
x8 -0.541*** -1.312*** -0.024*** 0.046*** 0.015*** -0.148*** 0.080***
(0.055) (0.062) (0.001) (0.009) (0.001) (0.022) (0.011)
x9 -0.407*** -3.337*** -0.074*** 0.086*** 0.026*** 0.068*** -0.034***
(0.039) (1.008) (0.023) (0.012) (0.004) (0.014) (0.009)
政策特征 x10 -2.810*** 0.042 0.028*** -0.199** -0.007 -0.588*** -0.267**
(0.561) (0.221) (0.004) (0.077) (0.009) (0.160) (0.126)
x11 -0.198 -0.367*** -0.007*** -0.093* -0.015*** 0.221*** 0.025
(0.124) (0.108) (0.002) (0.048) (0.006) (0.083) (0.052)
x12 0.669*** 0.917*** 0.010*** 0.356*** 0.046*** 0.316* -0.452***
(0.243) (0.240) (0.004) (0.098) (0.013) (0.174) (0.162)
家庭特征 x13 0.017 -0.043* -0.001*** -0.018*** -0.003 0.0460*** 0.008
(0.033) (0.023) (0.000) (0.007) (0.001) (0.016) (0.009)
x14 0.039 0.007 0.000 -0.009 0.000 -0.091*** 0.006
(0.031) (0.027) (0.001) (0.011) (0.001) (0.025) (0.016)
户主特征 x15 1.561*** -0.196 -0.020*** -0.107 -0.011 -0.332* -0.041
(0.304) (0.248) (0.005) (0.106) (0.013) (0.186) (0.167)
x16 0.500 0.534 0.002 0.097 -0.007 0.697*** 0.037
(0.368) (0.401) (0.007) (0.179) (0.022) (0.266) (0.164)
x17 0.349 0.077 -0.005 0.061 0.008 0.476*** -0.531***
(0.267) (0.213) (0.004) (0.083) (0.010) (0.183) (0.114)
x18 -0.672*** -0.143 0.006** -0.031 -0.002 -0.208** 0.228**
(0.138) (0.121) (0.002) (0.046) (0.006) (0.087) (0.099)
x19 -0.003 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.001 0.017* -0.007
(0.014) (0.013) (0.000) (0.004) (0.001) (0.009) (0.006)
x20 0.251 0.145 -0.001 0.074 0.010 0.157 -0.246*
(0.278) (0.178) (0.005) (0.103) (0.013) (0.149) (0.137)
村庄特征 x21 -0.335* 0.206* 0.010*** -0.014 -0.003 -0.174 0.236**
(0.174) (0.123) (0.003) (0.060) (0.007) (0.121) (0.109)
x22 -0.202 0.218 0.010*** -0.065 -0.003 -0.327** 0.055
(0.174) (0.136) (0.003) (0.065) (0.008) (0.129) (0.094)
x23 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.002 0
(0.001) (0.001) (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) (0.001) (0.001)
x24 -0.528** -0.119 0.002 -0.082 -0.010 0.187 -0.137
(0.208) (0.164) (0.003) (0.073) (0.009) (0.125) (0.090)
x25 1.074*** 0.396*** -0.008*** 0.383*** 0.036*** 0.610*** -0.061
(0.139) (0.107) (0.002) (0.054) (0.006) (0.099) (0.070)
x26 -0.383 -0.382 -0.004 -0.119 -0.007 -0.12 -0.236*
(0.402) (0.294) (0.007) (0.131) (0.016) (0.234) (0.132)
Constant 0.691 2.938*** 0.231 -1.826** -2.320***
(1.207) (0.927) (0.372) (0.766) (0.554)
Pseudo R2=0.360 伪似然对数=-21997.965