CMIP5模式对西北干旱区典型流域气温模拟能力评估——以开都-孔雀河为例

李晓菲, 徐长春, 李路, 罗映雪, 杨秋萍, 杨媛媛

Evaluation of air temperature of the typical river basin in desert area of Northwest China by the CMIP5 models:A case of the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin

Xiaofei LI, Changchun XU, Lu LI, Yingxue LUO, Qiuping YANG, Yuanyuan YANG

表3 CMIP5模式模拟及观测的1950—2005年开都-孔雀河流域气温突变年份

Table 3 Abrupt change years of air temperature in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin from 1950-2005 by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data

序号 模式名称 年平均气温 年平均最高气温 年平均最低气温 1 ACCESS1-0 1997 1997 1997 2 BCC-CSM1-1 1984 1982 1984 3 BCC-CSM1-1-M 1985 1975 1977 4 BNU-ESM 1984 1984 1983 5 CanESM2 1996 1997 1995 6 CCSM4 1995 1995 1997 7 CESM1-BGC 1980 1980 1980 8 CESM1-CAM5 1994 1985 1993 9 CMCC-CM 1996 2000 1986 10 CNRM-CM5 1997 1998 1996 11 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 1956,2003 1955,2002 1951,1956,2003 12 FGOALS-g2 1993 1993 1990 13 FIO-ESM 1986 1986 1985 14 GFDL-CM3 2000 1999 2001 15 GFDL-ESM2G 1993 1994 1996 16 GFDL-ESM2M 1995 1995 1994 17 GISS-E2-R 1996 1997,2001,2004 1993 18 GISS-E2-R-CC 1997 1997 1982 19 HadCM3 1954,1958,2003 1952,1959,2004 2004 20 HadGEM2-AO 1995 1993 1996 21 INMCM4 1984 1997 1980 22 IPSL-CM5A-LR 1992 1993 1993 23 IPSL-CM5A-MR 1982 1982 1979 24 IPSL-CM5B-LR 1983 1971 1993 25 MIROC4h 1993 1986 1993 26 MIROC5 2004 1952,1954,2004 2004 27 MIROC-ESM 2003 1998 1999,2000,2004 28 MIROC-ESM-CHEM 1984 1991,1998 1987 29 MPI-ESM-LR 1978 1981 1975 30 MPI-ESM-MR 1987 1987 1985 31 MRI-CGCM3 1975 1977 1975 32 NorESM1-M 1992 1992 1992 33 EE 1994 1995 1994 34 PM-EE 1986 1987 1988 35 PLS 1994 1995 1993 36 PM-PLS 1987 1990 1987 CRU 1987 1987 1987