五大交通运输方式碳达峰的经验分解与情景预测-----以东北三省为例
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王勇,韩舒婉,李嘉源,李博
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Empirical decomposition and forecast of peak carbon emissions of five major transportation modes:Taking the three provinces in Northeast China as examples
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WANG Yong,HAN Shuwan,LI Jiayuan,LI Bo
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表1 3种情景下不同交通运输方式影响碳排放的各因素的年均变化率
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Table 1 Annual average rate of change of various factors under the three scenarios (%)
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方式 | 影响因素 | 基准情景 | 方式 | 影响 因素 | 低碳情景 | | 技术突破情景 | 2017—2030 | 2017—2020 | | 2021—2025 | | 2026—2030 | 2017—2020 | | 2021—2025 | | 2026—2030 | 最小 值 | 中间 值 | 最大 值 | | 最小 值 | 中间 值 | 最大 值 | 最小 值 | 中间 值 | 最大 值 | 最小值 | 中间 值 | 最大 值 | 最小 值 | 中间 值 | | 最大 值 | 最小 值 | 中间 值 | 最大 值 | 最小 值 | 中间 值 | 最大 值 | 铁路 | I | 17.06 | 23.04 | 37.98 | 铁路 | I | 10.90 | 12.00 | 13.90 | | 9.90 | 11.00 | 12.10 | | 8.90 | 10.00 | 11.10 | | 10.90 | 12.00 | 13.90 | | 10.90 | 12.00 | 13.90 | | 9.90 | 11.00 | 12.10 | C/I | -4.88 | -4.66 | -3.88 | C/I | -3.5 | -1.60 | 0.30 | -5.40 | -3.50 | -1.60 | -7.30 | -5.40 | -3.50 | -4.50 | -2.60 | -0.70 | -4.50 | -2.60 | -0.70 | -6.40 | -4.50 | -2.60 | Y/I | -20.99 | -11.91 | -2.16 | Y/I | -7.28 | -5.38 | -3.48 | -6.42 | -4.52 | -2.62 | -5.74 | -3.84 | -1.94 | -8.28 | -6.38 | -4.48 | -8.28 | -6.38 | -4.48 | -7.42 | -5.52 | -3.62 | C/Y | -24.24 | 10.00 | 14.21 | C/Y | -1.64 | -1.44 | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | -1.24 | -3.44 | -2.94 | -2.44 | -1.64 | -1.44 | -1.24 | -1.64 | -1.44 | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | -1.24 | 公路 | I | 2.61 | 9.87 | 9.89 | 公路 和 航空 | I | 6.90 | 8.00 | 9.10 | 5.90 | 7.00 | 8.10 | 4.90 | 6.00 | 7.10 | 6.90 | 8.00 | 9.10 | 6.90 | 8.00 | 9.10 | 5.90 | 7.00 | 8.10 | C/I | 10.85 | 38.07 | 39.34 | C/I | -3.5 | -1.60 | 0.30 | -5.40 | -3.50 | | -1.60 | -7.30 | -5.40 | | -3.50 | -4.50 | -2.60 | | -0.70 | -4.50 | -2.60 | | -0.70 | -6.40 | -4.50 | | -2.60 | Y/I | -0.04 | 1.91 | 10.43 | Y/I | -3.77 | -1.87 | 0.97 | -2.85 | -0.95 | | 0.95 | -7.74 | -5.84 | | -3.94 | -4.77 | -2.87 | | -0.03 | -4.77 | -2.87 | | -0.03 | -3.85 | -1.95 | | -0.05 | C/Y | 31.67 | 36.34 | 38.34 | C/Y | -1.64 | -1.44 | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | | -1.24 | -3.44 | -2.94 | | -2.44 | -1.64 | -1.44 | | -1.24 | -1.64 | -1.44 | | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | | -1.24 | 航空 | I | 25.02 | 34.77 | 43.18 | 水路 | Y | 5.78 | 5.98 | 6.18 | 5.78 | 5.98 | 6.18 | 5.58 | 5.78 | 5.98 | 5.78 | 5.98 | 6.18 | 5.78 | 5.98 | 6.18 | 5.78 | 5.98 | 6.18 | C/Y | 31.41 | 46.39 | 49.21 | E/Y | -3.70 | -3.20 | -2.70 | -3.10 | -2.60 | | -2.10 | -2.90 | -2.40 | | -1.90 | -3.70 | -3.20 | | -2.70 | -3.70 | -3.20 | | -2.70 | -3.70 | -3.20 | | -2.70 | Y/I | -14.44 | 11.65 | 49.65 | C/E | -2.81 | -2.61 | -2.41 | -2.92 | -2.72 | | -2.52 | -3.09 | -2.89 | | -2.69 | -2.81 | -2.61 | | -2.41 | -2.81 | -2.61 | | -2.41 | -2.92 | -2.72 | | -2.52 | C/Y | 15.24 | 32.37 | 77.08 | C/Y | -1.64 | -1.44 | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | | -1.24 | -3.44 | -2.94 | | -2.44 | -1.64 | -1.44 | | -1.24 | -1.64 | -1.44 | | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | | -1.24 | 水路 | Y | 3.21 | 7.84 | 15.01 | 管道 | I | 8.90 | 10.00 | 11.90 | 7.90 | 9.00 | 10.10 | 6.90 | 8.00 | 9.10 | 8.90 | 10.00 | 11.90 | 8.90 | 10.00 | 11.90 | 7.90 | 9.00 | 10.10 | E/Y | -14.91 | -3.12 | -1.55 | C/I | -3.50 | -1.60 | 0.30 | -5.40 | -3.50 | | -1.60 | -7.30 | -5.40 | | -3.50 | -4.50 | -2.60 | | -0.70 | -4.50 | -2.60 | | -0.70 | -6.40 | -4.50 | | -2.60 | C/E | 12.49 | 12.50 | 30.97 | Y/I | -5.56 | -3.66 | -1.76 | -4.67 | -2.77 | | -0.87 | -3.96 | -2.06 | | -0.16 | -6.56 | -4.66 | | -2.76 | -6.56 | -4.77 | | -2.76 | -5.67 | -3.77 | | -1.87 | C/Y | -4.18 | 2.69 | 19.96 | C/Y | -1.64 | -1.44 | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | | -1.24 | -3.44 | -2.94 | | -2.44 | -1.64 | -1.44 | | -1.24 | -1.64 | -1.44 | | -1.24 | -2.64 | -2.44 | | -1.24 | 管道 | I | 4.70 | 17.11 | 54.28 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | C/I | 32.52 | 33.06 | 48.36 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Y/I | 59.59 | 70.59 | 75.31 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | C/Y | -17.13 | 23.76 | 48.21 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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