中国能源进口贸易的持续期—

中国能源进口贸易的持续期——基于生存分析法

刘宏曼, 李星晨

The duration of China's energy imports based on survival analysis

Hongman LIU, Xingchen LI

表5 稳健性检验

Table 5 Robustness test

变量	不同样本相同Logit模型			相同样本Probit模型		相同样本Cloglog模型
变量	系数	边际效应	几率比	系数	边际效应	系数	边际效应
Dist	0.464***	0.049***	1.591***	0.249***	0.064***	0.264***	0.050***
	(0.125)	(0.013)	(0.199)	(0.079)	(0.020)	(0.095)	(0.018)
Contig	-0.564**	-0.060**	0.569**	-0.314**	-0.080**	-0.345*	-0.065*
	(0.243)	(0.026)	(0.138)	(0.158)	(0.040)	(0.191)	(0.036)
GDP_Mul	-0.034	-0.004	0.967	-0.012	-0.003	-0.006	-0.001
	(0.045)	(0.005)	(0.043)	(0.030)	(0.008)	(0.036)	(0.007)
FTA	0.673***	0.072***	1.960***	0.208*	0.053*	0.274*	0.052*
	(0.178)	(0.019)	(0.349)	(0.115)	(0.029)	(0.145)	(0.027)
Polity	-0.019	-0.002	0.981	-0.021**	-0.005**	-0.027***	-0.005***
	(0.012)	(0.001)	(0.012)	(0.008)	(0.002)	(0.010)	(0.002)
Conflict	-0.113***	-0.012***	0.893***	-0.027*	-0.007*	-0.031	-0.006
	(0.034)	(0.004)	(0.030)	(0.015)	(0.004)	(0.019)	(0.004)
History	-0.332***	-0.035***	0.717***	-0.227***	-0.058***	-0.257***	-0.049***
	(0.124)	(0.013)	(0.089)	(0.076)	(0.019)	(0.093)	(0.017)
Length	-0.214***	-0.023***	0.807***	-0.114***	-0.029***	-0.228***	-0.043***
	(0.021)	(0.002)	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.004)	(0.025)	(0.005)
UV	0.074**	0.008**	1.077**	0.067***	0.017***	0.081***	0.015***
	(0.034)	(0.004)	(0.036)	(0.022)	(0.005)	(0.026)	(0.005)
IV	-0.078***	-0.008***	0.925***	-0.032**	-0.008**	-0.042**	-0.008**
	(0.022)	(0.002)	(0.020)	(0.014)	(0.004)	(0.018)	(0.003)
TI	-0.041**	-0.004**	0.959**	-0.032**	-0.008**	-0.038**	-0.007**
	(0.021)	(0.002)	(0.020)	(0.013)	(0.003)	(0.015)	(0.003)
TE	-0.114***	-0.012***	0.892***	-0.049***	-0.012***	-0.049**	-0.009**
	(0.026)	(0.003)	(0.024)	(0.017)	(0.004)	(0.021)	(0.004)
Share	-1.426***	-0.152***	0.240***	-0.719***	-0.184***	-0.782***	-0.148***
	(0.211)	(0.022)	(0.051)	(0.137)	(0.035)	(0.170)	(0.032)
CNum	-0.711***	-0.076***	0.491***	-0.382***	-0.098***	-0.431***	-0.082***
	(0.079)	(0.008)	(0.039)	(0.053)	(0.013)	(0.065)	(0.012)
REGION	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
PRODUCT	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
YEAR	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	5920	5920	5920	3535	3535	3535	3535
ρ	0.111	0.111	0.111	0.142	0.142	0.085	0.085