国际期铜价格波动中的金融因素分析

程慧, 徐琼, 郭尧琦, 陈伟勋

Financial factors in international copper futures price volatility

Hui CHENG, Qiong XU, Yaoqi GUO, Weixun CHEN

表3 各阶段自变量的投影重要性指标

Table 3 Independent variable projection importance index table at each stage

VIP排序 全样本 VIP 阶段1 VIP 阶段2 VIP 阶段3 VIP 1 USDX 1.407 USDX.L1 1.314 SP500.L1 1.342 GP 1.337 2 USDX.L1 1.402 USDX 1.291 SP500 1.192 FFR.L1 1.287 3 GP 1.303 SP500.L1 1.162 FFR 1.009 GP.L1 1.283 4 GP.L1 1.302 SP500 1.156 FFR.L1 0.974 FFR 1.274 5 FFR 0.841 FFR 1.087 USDX 0.947 SP500 1.186 6 FFR.L1 0.840 FFR.L1 1.054 RNC.L1 0.939 SP500.L1 1.171 7 RNC.L1 0.773 PNLNC.L1 0.929 RNC 0.930 RNC.L1 0.870 8 RNC 0.768 PNLNC 0.917 USDX.L1 0.926 RNC 0.784 9 SP500 0.734 RNC.L1 0.861 PNLNC.L1 0.921 PNLNC 0.649 10 SP500.L1 0.729 RNC 0.843 GP 0.919 PNLNC.L1 0.626 11 PNLNC.L1 0.707 GP 0.492 PNLNC 0.906 USDX.L1 0.427 12 PNLNC 0.702 GP.L1 0.481 GP.L1 0.894 USDX 0.375 VIP排序 阶段4 VIP 阶段5 VIP 阶段6 VIP 阶段7 VIP 1 PNLNC 1.508 USDX.L1 1.409 SP500 1.272 USDX 1.254 2 PNLNC.L1 1.398 USDX 1.376 SP500.L1 1.251 GP 1.225 3 USDX 1.063 SP500 1.201 USDX 1.144 USDX.L1 1.209 4 USDX.L1 1.057 SP500.L1 1.160 USDX.L1 1.113 GP.L1 1.202 5 GP.L1 1.047 GP.L1 0.970 GP 1.045 SP500.L1 1.071 6 GP 1.045 FFR 0.874 PNLNC.L1 1.044 SP500 1.060 7 FFR 0.947 FFR.L1 0.872 PNLNC 1.040 RNC 0.993 8 FFR.L1 0.924 RNC 0.832 GP.L1 1.027 RNC.L1 0.975 9 RNC.L1 0.867 PNLNC 0.814 RNC.L1 0.751 FFR 0.767 10 RNC 0.656 PNLNC.L1 0.780 RNC 0.693 FFR.L1 0.714 11 SP500.L1 0.471 GP 0.765 FFR 0.693 PNLNC 0.651 12 SP500 0.431 RNC.L1 0.568 FFR.L1 0.654 PNLNC.L1 0.542