中国居民生活碳排放增长路径研究
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曲建升, 刘莉娜, 曾静静, 李恒吉
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A study on growth path for China's household CO2 emissions
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Jiansheng QU, Lina LIU, Jingjing ZENG, Hengji LI
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| 表 2 中国城镇和农村居民生活碳排放情景设置边界 |
| Table 2 The setting boundaries of different scenarios on household CO2 emissions in urban and rural China |
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| 情景设置 | 年份 | 人口总量
/亿人 | 城镇化率
/% | 城镇人均收入
增长率 /% | 城镇排放强度下降率/% | 农村人均收入增长率/% | 农村排放强度下降率/% | | 基准情景 | 2020 | 14.10 | 61.5 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 11.3 | 2.8 | | 2030 | 14.55 | 68.5 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 8.3 | 2.7 | | 2050 | 14.65 | 74.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | | 高碳情景 | 2020 | 14.10 | 62.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 12.0 | 2.5 | | 2030 | 14.60 | 70.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 2.4 | | 2050 | 14.85 | 76.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | | 低碳情景 | 2020 | 14.08 | 61.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 10.5 | 3.1 | | 2030 | 14.50 | 67.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 3.0 | | 2050 | 14.45 | 71.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.8 | | 强化情景 | 2020 | 14.08 | 60.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 10.0 | 3.4 | | 2030 | 14.45 | 65.0 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 3.2 | | 2050 | 14.30 | 69.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
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