基于IPAT模型和情景分析法的山西省碳排放峰值年预测

朱宇恩, 李丽芬, 贺思思, 李华, 王云

Peak year prediction of Shanxi Province’s carbon emissions based on IPAT modeling and scenario analysis

ZHU Yuen,LI Lifen,HE Sisi,LI Hua,WANG Yun

表5 2015-2040年山西省GDP年增速、年节能率、可再生能源年替代率情景组合设置

Table 5 Combined scenarios of annual GDP growth rate,energy saving rate and the replacement rate of renewable energy in Shanxi Province from 2015 to 2040

A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 B3 B1 B2 B3 B1 B2 B3 情景组合 A1B1C1 A1B2C1 A1B3C1 A2B1C1 A2B2C1 A2B3C1 A3B1C1 A3B2C1 A3B3C1 A1B1C2 A1B2C2 A1B3C2 A2B1C2 A2B2C2 A2B3C2 A3B1C2 A3B2C2 A3B3C2 A1B1C3 A1B2C3 A1B3C3 A2B1C3 A2B2C3 A2B3C3 A3B1C3 A3B2C3 A3B3C3