Under the background of rapid global economic transformation, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has penetrated into all fields of production and life, and a proper understanding of the environmental risks brought by EPU is crucial to the achievement of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the asymmetric transmission effect perspective, this study empirically examined the symmetric and asymmetric effects of EPU on carbon emissions in the long and short term using the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017, developed heterogeneity analysis based on the level of economic development, and constructed a mediation effect model to analyze the mechanism of the effect of rising and falling EPU on carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) There is an asymmetric effect of EPU on carbon emissions in the short term and a symmetric effect in the long term. In the short term, a rise in EPU significantly affects carbon emissions, while a fall in EPU has an insignificant effect on carbon emissions. In the long term, there is a negative linear relationship between the two, and a decrease in EPU promotes carbon emissions. (2) The effect of EPU on carbon emissions shows significant regional heterogeneity depending on the level of economic development. In the short term, the effect of EPU change is not significant for the eastern region, but significant for the central and western regions, and shows asymmetric effects; in the long term, only the decline of EPU in the eastern region increases carbon emissions, and the EPU and carbon emissions in the central and western regions show a negative linear relationship. (3) Carbon emissions adjust at different speeds in different regions after EPU shocks, with the eastern region having a higher self-regulation ability than the central and western regions, and being able to adjust and stabilize carbon emission levels more quickly. (4) The impact of EPU on carbon emissions is mainly expressed through economic effects, with rising EPU leading to lower carbon emissions by suppressing economic growth dynamics, and falling EPU leading to higher carbon emissions by accelerating economic growth rate. In the future, the government should prudently adjust economic policies, improve the market information disclosure system, and give full play to regional comparative advantages to promote the development of new industries.
Exploring the mechanism of energy policy impact on regional carbon emissions is of great significance for achieving the carbon neutrality and carbon peaking goals. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 2003 to 2019, this study first evaluated the effect of energy policies on carbon emissions through a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model. Second, we divided energy policies into development-oriented and conservation-oriented, and the effectiveness and sustainability of emission reduction of the two types of policies were evaluated. Third, by constructing a panel fixed-effect model with interactive terms, the mechanism of energy policy impact on regional carbon emission reduction was explored. Finally, based on the levels of economic development and energy endowments, the provinces were divided into eastern, central, and western regions and energy rich and poor regions for further analysis. The results show that: (1) The implementation of energy policies can significantly promote regional carbon emission reduction, and the results are still valid after parallel trend test and a series of robustness tests. (2) The emission reduction effect of the current conservation-oriented policies is stronger, while the emission reduction of the development-oriented policies is more sustainable. (3) Technological innovation has a negative moderation effect in carbon emission reduction of energy policies, while energy consumption structure, industrial structure upgrading, and industrial structure optimization can improve the positive effect of energy policies on carbon emission reduction. (4) There exists significant regional heterogeneity in the carbon emission reduction mechanism of energy policies.The eastern region can rely on green technology innovation and industrial structure upgrade to strengthen the carbon emission reduction effect of the policy, while the carbon emission reduction effect of the policy in the central and western region is not significant; Energy rich region can play a role in reducing carbon emissions under the structural effects of industry and energy consumption, while policies in energy poor region need to be coordinated with green technology innovation. The results are of guiding significance for China’s energy policy making and carbon emission reduction.
In the context of carbon peaking and neutralization, the carbon emission reduction of China’s power sector depends not only on the optimization of energy structure, but also on the reduction of energy intensity. Based on the enterprise level data of China thermal power generation sector, this paper analyzed the impact of different sources of technological progress, including R&D investment, FDI and environmental regulation, on factor input and energy intensity using a SURE regression method and discussed about biased technological progress direction under the framework of translog cost function. The paper had the following findings. Firstly, R&D investment and FDI have significant neutral technological progress effect and both lead to factor input reduction and energy intensity reduction. However, compared to large enterprises and enterprises in Eastern China, the technological progress effect is weaker for small enterprises and enterprises in Central and Western China. Secondly, environmental regulation has significant biased technological progress effect on energy conservation and energy intensity through direct channel caused by equipment replacement instead of the indirect channel caused by innovation. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to stimulate the technological progress effect of different channels through encouraging the promotion and application of innovative achievements, establishing regional cooperation platform for enterprises, and adopting reasonable environmental regulation policy mix, thus reducing the energy input and energy intensity of the thermal power generation sector in China.
China has a coastline of more than 32600 km and possesses three types of blue carbon ecosystems: mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass beds, and mariculture production ranks first in the world all year round, so there are excellent conditions for blue carbon development. Based on a systematic review of blue carbon research results in China and abroad, this study constructed a blue carbon accounting framework for China’s coastal provinces, which includes the natural ecosystem and mariculture system from the perspective of a broad blue carbon definition. Meanwhile, based on relevant statistical data, remote sensing data, and accounting parameter data, the blue carbon of China’s coastal provinces was accounted for and their spatial and temporal change patterns were analyzed. This study also used the Super-SBM (slacks-based measure) model to evaluate the efficiency of China’s mariculture carbon sink fisheries. The results show that: (1) Blue carbon ecosystem areas showed fluctuating growth, and the annual average amount of carbon buried in mangroves in China from 1997 to 2019 ranged from 0.033-0.078 Tg C/yr, 0.234-0.646 Tg C/yr in salt marshes, and 0.012-0.018 Tg C/yr in seagrass beds; (2) The annual average amount of carbon buried in nine coastal provinces from 2003 to 2020 was 0.87-1.36 Tg C/yr, with significant inter-provincial spatial disparities and showing different growth characteristics in each time period; (3) The spatial distribution pattern of total blue carbon and structure of coastal provinces differed significantly, among which Liaoning and Shandong were the provinces with the highest blue carbon capacity, and the composition ratio of blue carbon was more balanced in Jiangsu Provinces; (4) Land use change, uncoordinated development between blue carbon habitat and mariculture, and climate change are important reasons affecting the blue carbon capacity of natural resources, and the efficiency values of carbon sink fisheries in nine coastal provinces for 2003-2020 reflected a imbalance between the economic indicators of mariculture inputs and ecological outputs, which could also curb the excavation and utilization of blue carbon capacity. Finally, corresponding optimization recommendations for blue carbon were proposed to contribute to the national carbon neutrality strategy.
Urban agglomerations are the main carrier of regional economic and green development in China, and their strategic position is rapidly increasing. Under the targets of carbon neutralization and carbon peaking, research on coordinated governance of urban agglomeration pollution control and carbon emission reduction is an important content of exploring regional sustainable development. Based on the mechanism of change of coordinated governance of pollution control and carbon emission reduction, this study used the panel data of the three major urban agglomerations of China from 2010 to 2019 to measure the coordination degree of coordinated governance of pollution control and carbon emission reduction in these regions with correlation coefficient matrix method and composite system coordination degree model. Using Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation, Theil index and its decomposition method, and gravity model, this study analyzed the regional differences and spatial connection intensity of the coordinated governance of pollution control and carbon emission reduction and identified the critical pathways of pollution control and carbon emission reduction coordinated governance. The results show that: (1) The orderliness degree of coordinated governance in the three major urban agglomerations showed a significant growth trend; However, the coordination degree is low, and the system is in an unstable and uncoordinated state. (2) The differences in the coordination degree of coordinated governance of pollution control and carbon emission reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region gradually decreased, while the differences in the Yangtze River Delta remained stable, and the internal differences in the Pearl River Delta fluctuate greatly. (3) The network density and network structure complexity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Pearl River Delta are higher than those in the Yangtze River Delta, and the spatial connection intensity is higher. The cities are interconnected and influenced by each other. The coordinated governance of pollution control and carbon emission reduction in the three major urban agglomerations can be promoted from the aspects of policy, technology, capacity building, top-level design, transformation and upgrading, and cooperation and expansion.
Sustainable and intensive use is an effective way to realize the “three-in-one” protection of cultivated land in China, and its level is related to farmers’ allocation of agricultural production factors. Land rights intensity affects farmers’ production factor allocation behavior, and the completion of land rights confirmation on schedule provides a good exogenous natural experiment to test the institutional performance. Thus, based on a field survey of farmers from three counties (districts) in Shandong Province in 2017, we constructed an analytical framework of “sustainable intensification of cultivated land use (SICL) concept-SICL level measurement-SICL response to land rights confirmation and mechanism” in order to discuss the conceptual connotation of SICL and estimate its level at the farming household scale. Meanwhile, we showed whether and how land rights confirmation affected the SICL by theoretical analysis and empirical test. We found that: (1) The sustainable and intensive use of cultivated land includes four dimensions: management intensification, high output efficiency, resource conservation, and non-degradation of the ecological environment, which can be measured from the perspective of input and output. (2) The SICL level of the sample farmers was concentrated in the low level range, and the cultivated land use intensification in Wulian is relatively unsustainable, while the conditions in Dongping and Kenli were better. The response of cultivated land use to land rights confirmation was manifested in the efficiency improvement or dissipation of sustainable intensification, which was related to whether farmers have the ability to reconfigure production factors that were suitable for the land rights confirmation. Moreover, the farther the farming households are from the county seat, the stronger the effect of unsustainable intensification after the land rights was confirmed, and this moderation effect exists significantly in Kenli. With the improvement of specialization of farming households in grain planting, the policy effect of inhibiting the SICL will be alleviated after the land rights are confirmed. Based on the results, to alleviate the institutional inhibition of farmland rights confirmation on SICL and transform land use towards sustainable intensification, it is important to start with constructing an assessment framework for SICL, improving the ability to allocate production factors for farmers whose land rights are confirmed, and implementing differentiated regional policies.
Whether improving the level of organization of farmers is conducive to the realization of large-scale operations is an important issue for the realization of agricultural modernization. Based on the micro survey of 627 rural households in Shanxi and Shaanxi Provinces, this study used the endogenous switching Probit model to construct a “counterfactual” framework, calculated the average treatment effect of cooperatives on rural households’ land transfer-in and its group differences, and further used the stepwise regression to analyze the mechanism of influence of cooperatives on farmers’ land transfer-in. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Joining a cooperative can significantly promote the farmers to transfer-in land. The specific manifestation is that under the counterfactual assumption, if farmers who were not part of the cooperative join a cooperative, their land transfer-in probability will increase by 20.3%. (2) The role of cooperatives in promoting land transfer-in shows certain differences between different cooperative models and farmers. In terms of cooperation mode, the complete horizontal cooperation mode (products sold through cooperatives) has a greater effect on the land transfer-in of farmers than the partial horizontal cooperation mode (products are not sold through cooperatives). For farmers with larger arable land, higher annual family income, and higher education level, the incentive effect of joining cooperatives on land transfer-in is higher. (3) Cooperatives can promote the farmers to transfer-in land through four paths: spillover incentives, cost saving, risk reduction, and financing support. This research provides some empirical basis and reference for the improvement of the cooperative service system and the realization of moderate-scale management of agriculture.
Policy incentives and value perception are two important factors that affect farmers’ decision making on the adoption of water-saving technologies, exploring the effects of the two factors is conducive to improve technology adoption and achieve sustainable utilization of water resources. Based on the data of 1188 questionnaire survey of grain farmers in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan Provinces, this study used bivariate Probit model to analyze the impact of policy incentives, value perception, and their interaction on farmers’ water-saving technology adoption behavior, and examined the intergenerational and scale differences. The results show that: (1) Policy incentives and value perception can effectively promote farmers to adopt agronomic and engineering water-saving technologies. The significant impacts on the simultaneous adoption of the two types of water-saving technologies from high to low are from policy subsidies, economic perception, agricultural technology information dissemination, applicability perception, environmental perception, and irrigation water prices. (2) Value perception plays a moderating role in the impact of policy incentives on farmers’ adoption of water-saving technologies. The positive impact of agricultural technology information dissemination, policy subsidies, and irrigation water prices on the adoption of agronomic and engineering water-saving technologies are affected by economic perception. Agricultural technology information dissemination can encourage high environmental perception farmers to adopt agronomic water-saving technology and high applicability perception farmers to adopt engineering water-saving technology; irrigation water prices is helpful for high applicability perception farmers to adopt agronomic water-saving technology. (3) There are intergenerational and scale differences in the impact of policy incentives and value perception on farmers’ water-saving technology adoption behavior. The water-saving technology adoption behaviors of older generation farmers and large scale farmers are significantly affected by policy incentives and value perception; agricultural technology information dissemination and applicability perception can significantly promote the new generation of farmers to adopt water-saving technologies; and small farmers’ water-saving technology adoption behavior is mainly affected by agricultural technology information dissemination, policy subsidies, and applicability perception. (4) Agricultural technology information dissemination, policy subsidies, and irrigation water prices have complementary effects in the process of influencing the adoption of water-saving technologies. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the role of the government in the promotion of water-saving technology, pay attention to the improvement of farmers’ value perception, and strengthen the policy preference for the new generation farmers and small scale farmers.
With the growing yearning for a better life, the public in China is increasingly more actively involved in environmental pollution control. Public supervision has become an effective means to complement the existing environmental regulation policy tools. How to effectively restrain the interregional transfer of polluting industries under the domestic circulation has become an urgent practical issue. From the perspective of preventing the interregional transfer of polluting industries, this study used the shift share analysis method to measure the transfer scale of pollution industries at the provincial level in China. We built a systematic Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to test whether public supervision can directly or indirectly inhibit the interregional transfer of polluting industries, and the results were compared with traditional environmental policy tools such as command and control and market incentive. The research results show that: (1) The two forms of public supervision—environmental proposals of the provincial People’s Congress and the CPPCC and the complaints of the public on environmental problems—can directly and effectively inhibit the interregional transfer of polluting industries. (2) Public supervision can improve the effect of command and control and market incentive environmental regulations. In terms of improving the efficiency of comprehensive environmental regulation, the effect of public environmental complaints is four times that of the environmental proposals of the provincial People’s Congress and the CPPCC. There is also a significant synergy between the two types of public supervision. (3) The two types of public supervision can significantly inhibit the transfer of polluting industries in both economically developed and economically underdeveloped areas. The effect of public environmental complaints is more significant in less developed areas, where its inhibitory effect is twice that of the environmental proposals of the provincial People’s Congress and the CPPCC. In view of this, we should give full play to the role of public environmental supervision and unblock the normalization and institutionalization channels of public supervision, strengthen the accountability mechanism for local governments to undertake industrial transfer and environmental governance, and avoid the “race to the bottom competition” between local governments. At the same time, we should build a diversified environmental governance system to reasonably guide the orderly transfer, transformation, and upgrading of industries.
The coupling coordination degree of economic-ecological-social benefits is a vital indicator for measuring the achievements of desertification control, and measuring the integrated benefits is a solid basis of sustainable desertification control. In this study, we evaluated the desertification control benefits of the economic-ecological-social system of the Mu Us Sandy Land in 2004-2019. We discussed the temporal characteristics of desertification control benefits coupling coordination degree as well as its spatial distribution, and analyzed the driving factors. The results show that the coupling coordination degree changed from mild imbalance to preliminary balance. During the initial period (2004-2007), the coupling coordination degree was imbalanced but improving. During the developing period (2008-2015), the coupling coordination degree increased with volatility, showing the characteristics of high in the north and the south. During the stabilizing period (2016-2019), the coupling coordination degree was preliminary balanced with higher values in the east. Afforestation area, agricultural machinery power, the number of deserticulture companies, and urbanization rate have a consistent long-term positive impact on the coupling coordination degree; afforestation and urbanization are the main driving factors. This study provides a new approach for accurately evaluating the effectiveness of desertification control in the Mu Us Sandy Land, and gives scientific support for the ecological civilization construction and regional sustainable development in a wider range of desert areas.
As a productive factor, social capital is a necessary condition for the harmonious and healthy development of society and economy. In order to explore the interactive response relationship between social capital and marine economic efficiency, this study used slacks-based measure (SBM) super efficiency model to measure the marine economic efficiency of 11 coastal provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2000 to 2018, and the entropy method was used for quantitative analysis of social capitals. Finally, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition based on a vector autoregression (VAR) model were used to investigate the dynamic relationship between them. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The overall level of marine economic efficiency is low and has great development potential. Temporally, it showed a fluctuating development trend of continuous rise, and the overall growth was significant. There are obvious regional differences spatially, and the regional gap presents an N-shaped development trend of “expanding, narrowing and expanding”. (2) During the study period, the social capital of provinces and cities showed a fluctuating and rising development trend, and the social capital level of provinces and cities was significantly different, showing a growing trend. (3) The impulse response results indicate that the social capital of provinces and cities can promote the efficiency of marine economy in different ways, which mainly depends on the difference of social capital accumulation level. According to the action mode and response degree, it can be divided into three types: short-term fluctuation type, continuous fluctuation type, and stable type. Marine economic efficiency and social capital formation promote each other. (4) From the perspective of variance decomposition, the role of social capital in marine economic development is becoming increasingly more important and the contribution of social network is the largest, followed by social trust, and finally social norms. This article holds that a high level of social capital will become a prerequisite for the harmonious and healthy development of marine economy. In the future, we should actively improve the contribution level of social capitals in the field of marine economy.
The evolution of regional spatial patterns is influenced not only by First Nature such as natural resources endowment, but also by Second Nature such as agglomeration economy. Regional development strategies reshape regional economic geography by changing local infrastructure conditions, transportation accessibility, functional layout, and other conditions of spatial agglomeration of economic activities. The “Double Evaluation” is an important basis and reference for delineating the “three zones and three lines” and optimizing the land use spatial patterns. However, the Double Evaluation emphasizes the natural resources conditions and only assesses the current situation. It also lacks the assessment of the impact and changes of regional development strategies and engineering projects on the carrying capacity of the environment and the suitability of territorial spatial development. Therefore, the predications of future spatial evolution trend and land supply and demand are inaccurate if we rely solely on the Double Evaluation. This study first constructed an analytical framework of spatial economics to explore and identify various influencing factors and mechanisms of the spatial evolution. Then, a spatial evolution simulation and analysis platform based on spatial economics theory, artificial neural network (ANN), and cellular automata (CA) were established to realize the evolution simulation for Yunnan Province. Based on the comparative analysis and modification, this study set up five scenarios of future regional development strategies and conducted a high-resolution simulation analysis for the province, and revised the Double Evaluation result accordingly. The results of our study show that: (1) The simulation results with the agglomeration economy factor can better reflect the pattern of spatial economic activities and have higher simulation accuracy. (2) The implementation of various regional development strategies is conducive to optimizing the territorial spatial development patterns; and the two scenarios of comprehensive integration and agricultural priority are more favorable for cities to make full use of their comparative advantages and carry out spatial development according to local conditions. (3) Based on the comprehensive and overall development scenario, the revised Double Evaluation result further identifies suitable construction area, reserve construction area, extremely important ecological protection area, and unsuitable construction area, optimizing the existing territorial spatial development patterns of Yunnan Province.
The conflict between protected areas and community livelihoods not only restricts the effectiveness of biodiversity protection, but also constitutes a huge obstacle to promoting the coordinated development of the ecological economy of protected areas and rural communities. The natural resource utilization behavior of rural households is an important factor in this conflict. However, due to the combined effects of the large number of rural labor migration and the benefit policy of protected areas, the natural resource utilization intensity of the rural households around protected areas has declined, and the changes have significant intergenerational characteristics. Therefore, it is of great value to analyze the heterogeneity of rural household natural resource utilization behavior from the perspective of intergenerational differences and to predict the future trend of conflict. In this study, 943 rural households in the surrounding areas of 17 nature reserves in Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces were selected as the research objects, and the Double-Hurdle model was used to empirically analyze the natural resource utilization behavior of rural households in different generations. The results of the study show that: (1) The intensity of natural resource utilization of rural households around the reserves generally showed a pattern of old generation > middle generation > young generation, indicating that the resource utilization conflict between the old generation and the reserve is the most intense. (2) The proportion of non-agricultural employment has a negative regulating effect on the natural resource utilization behaviors of rural households in different generations. The higher the proportion of non-agricultural employment, the less resource utilization behavior of rural households and the smaller the conflict with the protected area. (3) There are differences in protection benefits and protection costs borne by rural households of different generations. The young generation receives the most benefits hence utilizes less natural resources, while the old generation bears the most costs hence tends to over-exploit natural resources. Therefore, this research recommends rationally shaping the transformation of rural household livelihoods, and establishing and improving the benefit distribution and damage compensation mechanisms. It may provide a useful reference for resolving the conflicts between protected areas and rural communities.
The green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is inseparable from the rational allocation of water resources. This study examined the dynamic change process of regional and industry differences of water resources allocation and quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Sichuan, Hubei, and Jiangsu were selected as the representative provinces of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Based on the water resources input-output table from 2002 to 2017, we took grey water footprint intensity as the indicator of water resources allocation quality. (1) From the perspective of regional differences, from 2002 to 2017, the quality of water resources allocation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt first increased and then decreased. The quality of water resources allocation in the middle and lower reaches has been rising, but the improvement rate has slowed down. This evolution feature is related to the characteristic facts of pollution intensive industry transfer and characteristic pollutant return. (2) From the perspective of industrial differences, the quality of water resources allocation in agriculture and industry continued to improve, while the quality of water resources allocation in the service industry in the upper and middle reaches was low and has deteriorated, especially in the accommodation and catering industry and residential service and other services industry. (3) From the perspective of structural decomposition, COD concentration variation and wastewater discharge coefficient variation had a positive driving effect on the optimization of water resources allocation quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Final demand level had a negative driving effect on the optimization of water resources allocation quality in the basin. Therefore, this paper puts forward three suggestions to improve the quality of water resources allocation, including designing dynamic collaborative regulation, adjusting the internal structure of agriculture, and improving the market-oriented water supply and sewage charging system.
The source area of the Yellow River is an important part of the Yellow River Basin, and its runoff change affects the water resources and ecosystem security of the whole basin. Using the runoff data from 1976 to 2014, meteorological data, digital elevation model (DEM), land use, soil and meteorological data of three future scenarios in eight models of the 6th coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP6) from 2021 to 2100, and based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model, this study simulated, projected, and analyzed the future runoff and variation of main hydrological stations in the source area of the Yellow River. The results show that: (1) The SWAT model has good applicability in historical runoff simulation in the source area of the Yellow River. The uncertainty of runoff simulation is small, and the simulated values are close to the measured values. (2) Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that 27 hydrological parameters have a certain impact on runoff simulation. Among them, soil evaporation compensation factor, the number of SCS (Soil Conservation Service) runoff curves under humid condition II, and shallow groundwater runoff coefficient are highly sensitive, and runoff is greatly affected by land surface evapotranspiration, underlying surface, and precipitation. (3) Precipitation is the main factor affecting future runoff. Under the two future scenarios of SSP126 and SSP245, the annual average discharge of Jimai, Maqu, and Tangnaihai hydrological stations shows an increasing trend in the two periods from 2021 to 2100, while under the SSP585 scenario, it shows an increasing trend from 2021 to 2060 and a decreasing trend from 2061 to 2100. Relative to 1976-2014, the annual average discharge at Tangnaohai and Maqu stations in the near future (2021-2060) increases the least under the SSP585 scenario and the most under the SSP126 scenario, and at Jimai station it increases the most under the SSP245 scenario and the least under the SSP126 scenario. Annual average discharge at three hydrological stations in the far future (2061-2100) increases the least under the SSP585 scenario and the most under the SSP245 scenario, except for Jimai station, which has the lowest increase in the SSP126 scenario. The research results can provide important scientific basis and theoretical support for water resources management, flood control and water storage, as well as ecological environment protection in the Yellow River Basin.
