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    25 October 2021, Volume 43 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Spatial correlation network and influencing factors of green economic efficiency in China
    ZHAO Lin, CAO Naigang, HAN Zenglin, GAO Xiaotong
    2021, 43 (10):  1933-1946.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.01
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    Clarifying the characteristics of change and driving factors of the spatial correlation network structure of green economic efficiency can provide some reference for promoting regional coordination of green development. By constructing a green economic efficiency evaluation system, this study used the Super-Epsilon-Based Measure (Super-EBM) model that considers undesired output to measure the green economic efficiency in China’s provinces from 2000 to 2018. The structural change characteristics of green economic efficiency and its effect were analyzed by using a modified gravity model and the social network analysis method, and the influencing factors were identified by the quadratic assignment procedure method. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2018, China’s green economic efficiency showed a S-shaped trend that declined first and then increased, showing spatial imbalance between the regions with east > west > central region. (2) China’s green economic efficiency has gradually developed a complex network structure with the Beijing-Tianjin area and the Yangtze River Delta as the polar core. The spatial correlation between provinces has been increasing, and the stability of the network structure has gradually enhanced. However, there is still a relatively strict hierarchical structure of the overall network, and the network structure needs to be further optimized. (3) The Beijing-Tianjin area, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta are located in the core areas of the network and have both “intermediary” and “bridge” functions. Northwest and northeast regions are located in the periphery areas of the network. Jiangxi, Chongqing, Gansu, and Guizhou have played the role of “connecting the east and the west, and connecting the south and the north” in the spatial correlation network. (4) The spatial correlation network of green economic efficiency is affected by the joint action of multiple factors. Geographical proximity and the difference in economic development levels have significant positive impact on the improvement of the spatial correlation strength of green economic efficiency. The difference in scientific and technological innovation levels has an inhibitory effect on the spatial correlation network. The positive effects of the differences in resource endowment and opening up tend to weaken. Optimizing the spatial correlation network of green economic efficiency is of great significance for improving the regional green economic efficiency and reducing the regional differences of green development.

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    Spatial convergence and differentiation of forestry production technology efficiency in 30 provinces of China
    YANG Xu, QU Zhiguang, DENG Yuanjian
    2021, 43 (10):  1947-1960.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.02
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    Forestry is not only an important production sector of the national economy, but also a key area of ecological civilization construction. Improving the production technology efficiency (forestry PTE) is a key link in the efficient use of forest resources. In this article, the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model was used to calculate the forestry PTE of 30 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in China from 2004 to 2018. Considering spatial factors, the convergence trend and spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics were developed based on the spatial conditional β convergence model. The study found that: (1) The overall level of forestry PTE at the national level was not high, and there was a large room for improvement. The forestry PTE at the major forest region level ranks from high to low in southwest, south, northeast, North China, and northwest forest region. The gap between the provinces was equally obvious. But the gap between provinces in the same forest regions is smaller than the gap between provinces in different forest regions. (2) At the national level, forestry PTE showed a significant spatial conditional β convergence trend, and the inclusion of spatial factors shortens the convergence period by about 4 years. The degree of forestry opening up, the level of forestry income, and the structure of forestry industry were positively correlated with the convergence to high values, while the technological market environment had a restraining effect. The level of regional economic development, the level of forestry human capital, and the natural environment had insignificant impacts. (3) From the perspective of forest regions, the five major forest regions showed a “club convergence” phenomenon, and the convergence rate was generally higher than the national average. The North China forest region had the highest convergence rate, followed by the northeast, southwest, and northwest forest regions, and the southern forest region have the lowest convergence rate. In terms of time periods, the convergence rate from 2012 to 2018 was higher than that from 2004 to 2011. The regional economic development level and the degree of forestry opening up to the outside world had a different impact in the direction or strength of forestry PTE in the two periods. For this reason, this article proposes to further improve the forestry system and mechanism, clarify the regional positioning, and formulate forestry development measures according to local conditions.

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    The impact of ecological innovation on ecological economy of the Yangtze River Delta in China
    DU Limin, WANG Ruqi, XIAO Zhaohua
    2021, 43 (10):  1961-1975.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.03
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    The economists have not yet reached a consensus on whether and how ecological innovation affects the development of ecological economy. This study explored the relationship between ecological innovation and ecological economy based on a panel data set of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region covering the period 2010-2018. We first explored the impact of ecological innovation on ecological economy with a linear regression model, and then investigated the ways by which ecological innovation took effect by using a mediation effect model. Finally, we tested the nonlinear relationship between ecological innovation and ecological economy based on a panel threshold model. The results show that ecological innovation has significantly promoted the development of ecological economy in the Yangtze River Delta region, which is mainly driven by the improvement of green technical diffusion. In addition, ecological innovation has a significant double threshold effect on ecological economy, that is, the degree of influence of ecological innovation first increases and then decreases with the increase of income level. In order to promote the high-quality economic development of the region, we suggest that the integration of ecological innovation in the Yangtze River Delta region should be promoted from several aspects, such as improving the ability of ecological technology innovation, preventing the “one size fits all” policy, and strengthening regional cooperation.

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    Impacts of metal resource industry outward foreign direct investments on positions of China and the host countries in the global value chain
    LI Xuan, NI Xu, ZHANG Hailiang
    2021, 43 (10):  1976-1989.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.04
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    The economic transformation and upgrading and the improvement of international competitiveness are inseparable from metal resources, and their importance is self-evident. Under the great power game, it is very important for China to break through the “low-end lock” of value chain, become the leader of regional economy, and accelerate the development of metal industry of the host country in the metal resource industry outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Based on country-specific data from 2009 to 2018, this study examined the impact of direct investment on the status of China and the host countries of metal resource industry OFDI in the global value chain (GVC), as well as the role of different investment modes and investment regions in improving the status of China’s metal resource industry in the GVCs. The results show that: (1) On the whole, greenfield investment in the metal resource industry significantly promoted the improvement of the division of labor in the value chain of metal minerals in China. (2) Compared with developed countries, China’s direct investment in underdeveloped countries at the high end of the value chain had a greater spillover effect. (3) China’s foreign direct investment in the metal resource industry can achieve win-win cooperation, which promotes the upgrading of the host countries’ metal resource industry in the global value chain, and has a more significant impact on underdeveloped countries. This research on the upgrading of the value chain in the metal resource industry is conducive to exploring strategies for promoting China’s role and power in global governance, and has certain reference significance for the government to better implement targeted policies.

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    Comparison of the effects of different subsidy forms on improving food security of low-income rural households in China
    GAO Yang, ZHENG Zhihao
    2021, 43 (10):  1990-2002.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.05
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    After 2020, the long-term mechanism to alleviate relative poverty will be transformed from the previous strategy of “poverty alleviation” to the strategy of “poverty prevention”. It is urgent to build a new social assistance system to improve food security for low-income households in rural areas and promote long-term poverty reduction. This study estimated the income elasticities of calorie, macronutrients, and four key micronutrients for low-income rural households using China’s Rural Microeconomic Data from 2012 to 2018 collected by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. The obtained elasticity estimates were used to simulate the amount of cash transfers required to achieve different nutritional goals, and the conversion relationship between food and nutrition was used to simulate the amount of in-kind transfers required to achieve the nutritional goals. The results show that: (1) The income elasticities of most nutrients are small. (2)In-kind transfers can improve the food and nutrition security of low-income rural households more effectively than cash. (3) Under the condition of the same subsidy cost, the combination of staple and non-staple food can more effectively improve the nutritional balance of low-income residents. Entering the post-poverty era, China can consider establishing in-kind transfer system currently implemented by many countries (such as the United States, India, Egypt) to ensure the food and nutrition security of low-income residents and improve their nutritional balance.

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    Interactions between social and land supports for elderlies under different family support functions
    ZHU Zheyi, NING Ke
    2021, 43 (10):  2003-2012.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.06
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    The problem of rural hollowing out and aging is becoming more and more serious. It not only limits the needs of the elderly in rural areas, but also inhibits the improvement of the efficiency of land resource allocation, which requires urgent attention. This paper systematically analyzes the influence and mechanism of China’s New Rural Pension Insurance (NRPI) on land transfer decision of farmers above 60 years old. Based on theoretical analysis, this paper uses four-period-data from China Health and Pension Tracking Survey (CHARLS) to make an empirical analysis by panel instrumental variable method. We can get three conclusions from the research. Firstly, NRPI promotes land transfer since it increases welfare, especially for families short of economic support. Secondly, when offspring provides economic support, the role of social pension in improving farmers’ welfare will be shortened due to the lack of life care, which leads to a difficult replacement for land pension. Thirdly, for families with perfect pension, social pension can replace land pension by reducing agricultural time and non-agricultural employment. The conclusions of this paper have important practical significance for improving the rural aged security system. It will be more helpful to improve the living standards of the elderly, if we pay more attention to the linkage mechanism of family aged security and social aged security and provide different policy support to different families.

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    Impact of poverty alleviation relocation on farmers’ income and income gaps: A case study of 1680 households in Southern Shaanxi
    ZHU Yongtian, YU Jin
    2021, 43 (10):  2013-2025.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.07
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    In the context of the complete elimination of absolute rural poverty in 2020 and relative poverty becoming the focus of future poverty alleviation work, the impact of poverty alleviation relocation — the number one project for poverty alleviation on farmers’ income and income gaps urgently need to be studied. Based on the consideration of sample selection bias, using 1680 farming households’ survey data of Southern Shaanxi in 2017, this study explored the impact and influence path of participating in relocation on farmers’ income and income gaps using the endogenous switching regression model and the Field decomposition method. The results show that based on counterfactual assumptions, if non-relocated farmers participate in poverty alleviation relocation, their total household income would increase by 2.56%. Poverty alleviation relocation effectively increased total household income of farmers, and the income growth showed obvious non-agricultural employment-driven characteristics. The contribution rate of relocation to reducing the income gaps was 1.56%. Low-income farmers had a higher degree of non-agricultural transformation and greater income growth. Compared with expanding the agricultural income gap, participating in relocation contributed more to narrowing the non-agricultural income gap, which was the main path to reduce income gaps. In the future, it is necessary to continue to promote the relocation policy in light of the new development context, and make revitalizing the land resources and stabilizing employment the core of the follow-up work of the relocation.

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    The impact of command-and-control and market-based environmental regulations on afforestation area: Quasi-natural experimental evidence from county data in China
    PAN Dan
    2021, 43 (10):  2026-2041.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.08
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    There has been controversy over the relative effectiveness of heterogeneous environmental regulations—command-and-control environmental regulations and market-based environmental regulations—on afforestation area improvement. Employing the difference-in-differences method, this study took advantage of two Chinese policies—the National Key Ecological Functional Areas Policy (NKEFAP), which can be regarded as a command-and-control regulation, and the Ecological Transfer Payment Policy (ETPP), which can be viewed as a market-based regulation—as quasi-natural experiments to delve into the treatment effects of these two types of environmental regulations on afforestation area improvement. We collected data from 1372 counties in China during 2006-2016. The results show that: (1) Both the NKEFAP and ETPP can improve the afforestation area, but the effect of the ETPP was higher than the NKEFAP. Specifically, the NKEFAP increased afforestation areaby 6.7%, while the ETPP increased afforestation area by 8.2% and the effect increased over time. (2) The heterogeneity analyses found that the impact of the NKEFAP and ETPP on afforestation area was greater for counties with better initial afforestation area and high economic development levels. (3) Further cost-benefit analysis indicates that the total health benefit from reduced mortality due to NKEFAP and ETPP was RMB 592.611 billion and 725.614 billion yuan, respectively, which is 2.19 and 1.92 times the cost of reducing fiscal revenue. The conclusions of this study can contribute to the formulation of long-term effective forest environmental regulation policies in China.

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    Quantitative analysis and comparative study on provincial water environment policies in the Tai Lake Basin
    YANG Mingyi, QIAO Haijuan, WANG Yintang, HU Qingfang, ZHANG Conglin
    2021, 43 (10):  2042-2054.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.09
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    The Tai Lake Basin is the key area for the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Good water environment is an important prerequisite for the Tai Lake Basin to take the lead in achieving integration and high-quality development in China. However, the current water environment situation in the Tai Lake Basin is severe. Insufficient coordination of water environmental protection policies of Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang is an important reason. In order to analyze the problems of water environment policies and systematically adjust the policy system in the Tai Lake Basin, a three-dimensional comparative framework of water environment policies in the basin was established. The theoretical framework was combined with mathematical statistical methods. The differences and relevance of provincial water environment policy documents were quantitatively compared and analyzed and the policy network was mapped, and then countermeasures were put forward. The results show that: (1) In recent years, the supply quality of water environment policies of Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang has gradually improved, with diversified policy types, prominent policy priorities, and different regional policy priorities. (2) Due to the differences in the water environment problems at different stages and their causes, the three-dimensional policy framework at each stage has different characteristics, but on the whole it shows a trend of gradual diversification and stability; the connection of policy objectives, policy tools, and policy executors in each stage is close and they affect each other and change. (3) The existing problems in the water environment policy system of the Tai Lake Basin include imperfect policy target setting mechanism, the lack of flexible and innovative policy tools, the lack of a long-term mechanism to mobilize the enthusiasm of the market and society, and the lack of linkages between water environment governance policies. This research provides new ideas and methods for the comparison of policies in different regions in the basin and recommendations for systematically adjusting the water environment policy system of the Tai Lake Basin. Finally, countermeasures were put forward in terms of improving the target system, comprehensively using various policy tools, strengthening third-party participation in river basin water environment management, improving policy levels, and increasing policy synergy.

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    Ecological security evaluation of marine ranching under uncertainty: A case study of national marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng
    DU Yuanwei, WANG Yifan, SUN Haoran
    2021, 43 (10):  2055-2067.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.10
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    The research on the ecological security of marine ranching (MRES) is of great significance for implementing the concept of ecological priority, solving the problems of resources and environment, and implementing national and local policies. However, marine ranching in China is still in the early developmentstage, and the decision-making uncertainty caused by incomplete data is extremely significant. In order to solve these problems, this study developed a MRES evaluation indicator system based on the driving force, pressure, state, impact, and response (DPSIR) framework, then introduced the Ave-entropy method to calculate the indicator weights and applied the analytical evidence reasoning rule to build the MRES index and sub-index evaluation method, and finally conducted an case study of seven national marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng City by combining with the actual research data. The results show that the weights of DPSIR dimensions in Rongcheng marine ranching zones is: Response>Impact>State>Pressure>Driving Force, indicating that the MRES of the marine ranching zones showed a great difference in response, the difference in impact and state was medium, and the difference in pressure and driving force was small. The index mean value of MRES in Rongcheng City is at the lower middle level and the distribution is balanced. Among the seven marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng City, one is at the relatively safe and another at the critical safety level respectively, and five are at the less safe level. Driving force, pressure, impact, and response of the seven national marine ranching demonstration zones are at the critical safety level, while the state dimension is at the less safe level. The case study proves that the proposed theory and method are feasible to solve the MRES problem under enviromental uncertainty.

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    Spatiotemporal change of water-energy-food coupling efficiency and influencing factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
    QIN Teng, TONG Jinping
    2021, 43 (10):  2068-2080.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.11
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    Promoting “multi-resources” synergy and optimization of the relationship of resources, energy, and food systems are effective ways to address resource supply and demand conflicts and security risks. Based on the water-energy-food coupling coordination indicator system established in this study and using the super-slacks-based measure (SBM) model, we measured the water-energy-food coupling efficiency of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB), and analyzed its spatial and temporal changes and driving factors with kernel density estimation and a spatial econometric model. The results show that the overall water-energy-food coupling efficiency fluctuated between 0.65-0.95, which presented a periodical trend of declining-rising-declining from 2003 to 2017. There were certain differences in different provinces. Taking 2010 as the time node, water-energy-food coupling efficiency declined in Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou and Yunnan, tended to be stable in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui and Sichuan, fluctuated in Jiangsu, Hubei and Chongqing. The imbalance and polarization intensified with high-value regions concentrating in the Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan-Chongqing regions, while low-value regions shifting to the upper and middle reaches of the YEB. Technological progress, human capital, openness, and industrial structure were all important factors that can exert positive effect on improving water-energy-food coupling efficiency in the YEB. However, the positive effect of economic development and informatization had not yet appeared. Moreover, according to the regression results of the spatial econometric model, local water-energy-food coupling efficiency can also be improved due to spillover effects from neighboring areas. Therefore, in order to improve the overall water-energy-food coupling efficiency, it is necessary to develop a “multi-resources” synergy mechanism, exert positive spatial spillover effect, and formulate targeted policies based on the actual situation of each province.

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    Differences between economic contributions of incremental and stock construction land
    HUANG Lingxiang, HAN Jie, CHEN Zhu
    2021, 43 (10):  2081-2092.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.12
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    For achieving the goals of high-quality growth and urban development, it is important to effectively use incremental and stock construction land. However, existing research has not accurately measured the contributions of incremental and stock construction land for the economic development and has not compared the differences between these two types of land. Therefore, studies on the economic contributions of incremental and stock construction land can provide some reference for the improvement of land institution in China. This study first constructed production functions with incremental and stock construction land based on presumptions that the marginal substitution rate between incremental and stock construction land is variable and fixed. Then the study measured and compared the contribution amount of incremental and stock construction land across provinces from 2003-2016. Two statistical indicators, the supply of construction land from converted agricultural land and new construction land, were chosen as the appropriate proxy indicators for incremental construction land. Meanwhile, the method of instrumental variable analysis was used to simulate the production function. The results show that: (1) The economic development model driven by investment and local governments’ attempts to attract investment are reasons for the preference difference between incremental and stock construction land. (2) The marginal substitution rate between incremental and stock construction land is fixed with the changing rate between the input amounts of incremental and stock construction land. (3) The economic contribution amount of incremental construction land is 2.82-10.40 times that of stock construction land. (4) There are significant endogenous relationship between incremental construction land and GDP, which is usually ignored and results in underestimation of the contribution of incremental construction land. The policy implication of these results is further discussed. Integrated analysis and assessment of incremental and stock construction land would encourage development of stock construction land and sustainability of construction land use.

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    Collaborative measurement and interactive response between regional integration and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta
    YANG Qingke, DUAN Xuejun, WANG Lei, WANG Shen, FAN Yeting, ZHU Gaoli
    2021, 43 (10):  2093-2104.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.13
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    Based on the theoretical analysis of the synergy between regional integration and urban land use efficiency, this study constructed an evaluation index system of integration and efficiency respectively. It first analyzed the characteristics of change of the spatial and temporal patterns of integration and efficiency; then, it verified the collaborative relationship between integration and efficiency by using the grey correlation model; finally, it described the interactive response mechanism between them by using the panel-data vector auto regression (VAR) model. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2018, the level of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta had continuously improved, and the level had been increasing year by year. Spatially, the core-periphery polarization characteristics are obvious, and the overall urban land use efficiency showed an obvious upward trend. At the macro level, there exist some coupling characteristics between urban land use efficiency and the trend of regional integration, but there is a spatial mismatch affected by the heterogeneity of locational conditions, economic development level, and resource elements. (2) The comprehensive grey correlation analysis between regional integration and urban land use efficiency shows that there exists a medium to high level of grey correlation, and the performance is relatively stable, which confirms that there is an interactive relationship. (3) There exists a two-way interactive Granger causality between regional integration and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta. Both regional integration and urban land use efficiency have positive self-strengthening effect and inertial growth trend. The nonlinear characteristics of the interaction are obvious, and there is an interaction mechanism of positive or negative fluctuations alternately. The results of impulse response analysis show that regional integration had a sustained negative enhancement effect on the level of land use efficiency, while urban land use efficiency had a small positive response to the first three stages of regional integration, and then the positive enhancement effect gradually weakened and converged to 0 in the later stage.

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    The impact of age structure on carbon emissions: Based on a cross-country panel data of fertility rate and life expectancy
    LIU Feng, WANG Weiguo
    2021, 43 (10):  2105-2118.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.14
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    In the context of an emerging deeply aged society, China needs to focus on the impact of demographic change on achieving carbon emissions goals. In fact, to summarize the universal rules of the effect of world’s population age structure on carbon emission can help to better understand the mechanism of population age structure to carbon emission. Thus, based on the panel data of 55 representative global economies, this study empirically and comparatively examines the differential impact of age structure on carbon emissions growth of economies as well as its mechanism from the perspective of fertility rate and life expectancy by using panel data analysis method. The results show that both fertility rate and life expectancy have nonlinear effect on carbon emissions growth. The carbon emissions growth increases with the decline in fertility rate, but decreases with the extension of life expectancy at first and then increased. With the aggravation of population aging, life expectancy plays an increasingly important role in the impact of age structure on carbon emissions. In terms of the main mode of action of fertility rate and life expectancy, the leading mechanism differs between the developing and developed countries. The developing and developed countries are mainly driven by the change of scale and change of efficiency, respectively. This study enriches the research of the relationship between population age structure and carbon emissions growth. Furthermore, the results have policy implications for the path of carbon emissions reduction during the time of population aging.

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    Determinants of the effectiveness of China’s pilot carbon market
    WU Weiguang, ZHU Yalu, GU Guangtong
    2021, 43 (10):  2119-2129.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.15
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    Global warming caused by massive emissions of greenhouse gases has attracted widespread attention. The Chinese government tries to alleviate the problem of climate change and achieve green and sustainable economic development by developing the carbon market. The effectiveness of the carbon market not only has an important impact on achieving emission reduction targets and effectively lowering emission reduction costs, but also has important reference value for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China. At present, the national unified carbon market is in the stage of policy design, infrastructure construction, and simulation operation. Since carbon trading is an artificial market, the impact of quota allocation, punishment, offsetting and other policies and systems on its effectiveness is worthy of in-depth analysis. Based on the historical data of carbon trading market in seven cities and provinces, this study first constructed an indicator system to measure the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market, and then established a two-way fixed effects model and quantitatively estimated the impact of policy and institutional factors on market effectiveness. It aimed to provide a basis for optimizing China’s unified carbon market policy and institution, so as to improve the effectiveness of the carbon market. The research results show that: (1) From 2014 to 2018, the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market in seven cities and provinces in China peaked in the second and third quarters of the year. The effectiveness of the carbon market in the pilot areas varied greatly, among which the carbon market in Hubei Province was the most effective, while Tianjin and Chongqing’s carbon markets were less effective. (2) Currently the supply situation of the carbon market has a greater impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market than the demand situation. From a demand perspective, the number of companies that control emissions and the intensity of punishment have a greater impact on effectiveness. From a supply perspective, the total amount of allowances has a greater impact. (3) The macroeconomic industrial structure has a significant impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market, especially the proportion of tertiary industries. (4) The proportion of regional renewable energy has a positive impact on the effectiveness of carbon market. Based on these conclusions, the current focus should be to improve the quota distribution mode, improve the penalty mechanism, and gradually increase the number of companies that control emissions to improve the effectiveness of the carbon market.

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    The impact of aquatic product trade on the intensity of fishery carbon emissions: Based on intermediary and threshold models
    LI Chen, WANG Linlin, SHAO Guilan
    2021, 43 (10):  2130-2145.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.16
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    Identifying the impact of aquatic product trade on fishery carbon emission intensity is an important way to promote low carbon development of fishery. This study examined the impact path and income threshold effect of aquatic product trade on fishery carbon emission intensity from the three dimensions of scale effect, technology effect, and structural effect. The results show that: (1) Aquatic product trade has a strong direct promoting effect on fishery carbon emission intensity. Although it can indirectly inhibit fishery carbon emission intensity through the path of scale economy, energy-saving technology innovation, and industrial transformation and upgrading, it still increases fishery carbon emission intensity on the whole. (2) Under the constraint of income threshold, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between aquatic product trade and fishery carbon emission intensity. Trade has a negative effect on carbon emission intensity when income is in the high zone. (3) Fishery scale expansion, industrial structure optimization and upgrading, technology improvement, and factor endowment can effectively reduce fishery carbon emission intensity. There is a threshold for the effectiveness of environmental regulation on carbon emission intensity of fisheries, and excessive environmental regulation will lead to the phenomenon of “more regulation, more pollution”. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of aquatic product trade growth model, optimize the fishery industrial structure, and promote the innovation of open fishery technology. On the basis of fully considering regional differences, we should reasonably control fishery environmental regulation and assume common but differentiated responsibilities for fishery emission reduction.

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