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    25 June 2021, Volume 43 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    The effect of feed-in tariff on China’s photovoltaic capacity development: An empirical analysis based on panel data regression
    DONG Changgui, ZHOU Runmin, LI Jiaying
    2021, 43 (6):  1065-1076.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.01
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    Accurately estimating the impact of government subsidy on the development of strategic new industries is a key to evidence-based decision making of subsidy policies because, on the one hand, over-subsidization will bring about fiscal pressure and overcapacity to the society, and on the other hand, under-subsidization will slow down the development of these new industries. The rapid growth of China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is accompanied by the problems of solar curtailment and fiscal pressure which need to be solved urgently. Behind this is the lack of scientific evaluation of PV subsidy policy. This research took China’s PV industry as an example, and used panel data regression and counterfactual analysis to rigorously estimate the impact of government subsidy on PV market development. Our findings have the following indications. (1) With all other factors controlled, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kWh in PV subsidy will bring about 5.4-6.6 GW/year of installed capacity to the Chinese PV market, which is much greater than that estimated in the literature. (2) From a different perspective, if China were not having any PV subsidy in the first place, the PV market size would likely shrink by 85% compared to the actual case. (3) Taking the nine provinces with serious PV curtailment in the first half year of 2019 as the case, if PV subsidies were adjusted to a level where there is no curtailment, the subsidy deficit will be reduced by about RMB 1.3 billion yuan per year for these provinces. The conclusions of this research can be applied to optimizing the subsidy policy design and mitigating policy problems including PV curtailment and subsidy deficit.

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    Impact of public participation in the River Chief System on river governance: An empirical study in Jiangsu and Hubei provinces
    CHEN Liuyan, ZHAO Xin, ZHU Yuchun
    2021, 43 (6):  1077-1087.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.02
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    The River Chief System is a major institutional innovation to solve complex river governance problems in China. The implementation of the River Chief System and its integration into the structure and process of river governance would be a great measure to promote the modernization of river governance system and governance capacity. Based on a questionnaire survey of 677 farmers in Jiangsu and Hubei Provinces, this study used a Logit model to analyze the influencing factors of farmers’ participation in river governance, and used propensity score matching model (PSM) to analyze the impact on river ecological environment governance of farmers’ participation in River Chief System as general public. It then compared the effects of three participation modes of decision-making, maintenance, and supervision. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive quality of farmers, government support and encouragement, as well as the completeness of regulations and reflection channels all significantly affect farmers’ participation in river governance. (2) Farmers’ participation in the River Chief System will improve the governance effect for the river ecological environment, and will play a significant role in improving the governance level for rural surface water environment. (3) The net effects of participation in decision-making, maintenance, and supervision on the improvement of river governance level are 19.8%, 23.7%, and 31.4%, respectively. The results indicate that participation in water environment governance in the form of supervision has the most obvious effect on the improvement of the river governance level. The conclusion of the research has certain reference value for highlighting the importance of public participation, improving public participation system, and developing long-term river governance mechanism.

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    Effects of labor migration on farmers’ soil and water conservation technology adoption decisions: The mediation effect of participation in collective actions
    LI Yuyang, LU Qian, JIA Bin, LIU Dairao
    2021, 43 (6):  1088-1098.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.03
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    With the increasing trend of rural labor transfer, labor allocation of farmers on the Loess Plateau under the condition of constant time endowment has gradually become the key factor for adopting soil and water conservation technologies. It is of great significance to explore the relationship between the two factors for increasing the technology adoption rate, reducing soil erosion, and improving the ecological environment. Based on the survey data of 1197 households in the Loess Plateau region, this study used the Probit model to investigate the influence of farming households’ out-migration for work behavior and length of time on the adoption of soil and water conservation technologies, and further used the step-by-step test method to test the mediation effect of farming household participation in collective actions on the impact of out-migration for work on the adoption of soil and water conservation technologies. The results show that: (1) On the whole, out-migration for work will promote the adoption of soil and water conservation technologies. Heterogeneity analysis shows that with the extension of time of labor out-migration for work, farmers’ dependence on agricultural income decreased, which weakened farmers’ adoption of soil and water conservation technologies. (2) Farmers’ participation in village collective actions is one of the channels through which labor transfer affects farmers’ adoption of soil and water conservation technologies, and has a partial mediating effect. This confirms the value of collective action in the application and promotion of soil and water conservation technologies. In addition, the level of education of agricultural management decision makers, years of farming, neighbors’ mutual assistance of farming households, cognition of technology improvement, and the governments’ technology promotion activities all have a significant positive impact on the adoption behavior of soil and water conservation technologies. This research not only provides the evidence of the diffusion of soil and water conservation technologies under the background of labor transfer, but also has a certain empirical value for improving village collective action to promote the adoption of technologies.

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    Mechanism of influence of social networks on banana farmers’ adoption of resource conservation technologies: A case study of the drip fertigation system
    ZHU Yueji, YANG Qian, WANG Fang
    2021, 43 (6):  1099-1114.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.04
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    The diffusion of new resource conservation technologies among farmers is the key to the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. Based on the hypothesis that farmers have limited knowledge, this study theoretically examined the impact of social networks on farmers’ adoption of new resource conservation technologies in different dimensions, and the possible mediating role of farmers’ technology cognition between social networks and farmers’ adoption decision of new resource conservation technologies. Taking the drip fertigation system (DFS) as a case and based on the survey data of 632 banana farmers in Guangdong, Hainan, and Yunnan Provinces, this study analyzed the mediating role of farmers’ technology cognition in bridging social networks and banana farmers’ adoption of the DFS. The results indicate that farmers’ social networks and technology cognition can significantly promote the adoption of new resource conservation technologies in production practices. Social networks can weaken farmers’ cognitive differences in new technologies, thus forming new group cognition about new technologies and strengthening farmers’ adoption of resource conservation technologies. Specifically, the “tendency” and “mutual help” of social networks can improve farmers’ perception of “technology transfer gradient” and “technology cognitive embeddedness”, thereby affecting farmers’ adoption decision of resource conservation technologies. However, the “scope” of social networks directly influences farmers’ adoption of resource conservation technologies, and this effect is heterogeneous in different regions.

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    The impact of agricultural land rights confirmation on agricultural machinery service adoption:Evidence from the North China Plain
    HUANG Bin, GAO Qiang
    2021, 43 (6):  1115-1127.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.05
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    Agricultural machinery services are an important support to realize the organic connection between small farmers and modern agricultural development. This study used an instrumental variable (IV) model to empirically analyze the survey data of 807 households in 20 counties of 6 provinces on the North China Plain to explore the impact of agricultural land rights confirmation on agricultural machinery service adoption from the perspective of service scale and service choice (that is, proportion of agricultural machinery service adoption area in agricultural machinery operating area). The results show that: Agricultural land rights confirmation can improve the scale of agricultural machinery service adoption, and the total area of farmers receiving agricultural machinery services after agricultural land rights confirmation has significantly increased. Agricultural land rights confirmation had no significant impact on agricultural machinery service choice, and farmers did not show a significant choice preference for agricultural machinery services after agricultural land rights confirmation. The reason for this result is the existence of scale heterogeneity, and the incremental effect is significantly inclined towards farmers with larger planting scales. According to these results, we provide several policy recommendations: (1) At the current stage, it is necessary to continue to promote agricultural land rights confirmation and accelerate the reform of the rural collective property rights system. (2) It is necessary to improve the agricultural service system for small farmers, and increase the policy support for small farmers. (3) It is necessary to improve the laws and regulations and detailed rules of implementation for land transfer, promote the adaptation of the agricultural service system to the land transfer system, and broaden the ways of improving agricultural land use efficiency by small farmers. This study not only fills the gap of the existing research, but also has important significance for broadening the views about the effect of the policy of agricultural land rights confirmation and improving the agricultural machinery service system.

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    Impact of environmental decentralization on pollution reduction effects in China: A test based on spatial dynamic panel model
    XU Hui, WANG Chengliang, FENG Guoqiang
    2021, 43 (6):  1128-1139.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.06
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    There is no consensus in the literature on the role of environmental decentralization in pollution reduction and control, and whether it can become an important driver of decentralized incentives in pollution control. Based on the data from 2001 to 2016 at the provincial level of China, this study examined the environmental regulatory authority and the allocation pattern of the three regulatory powers at the provincial level, and regressed PM2.5, wastewater discharge per capita, general industrial solid waste output per capita, which represent air pollution, water pollution and solid waste pollution respectively, with the spatial dynamic panel model to test the role and mechanism of environmental decentralization. The results show that: (1) Environmental decentralization weakened the effect of pollution reduction. The higher the degree of decentralization is, the higher the degree of pollution of PM2.5, water pollution, and solid waste pollution. Of these, decentralization had the greatest effect on PM2.5 and the least effect on water pollution; (2) The relationship between air pollution and environmental decentralization showed a nonlinear inverted-U trend, and water pollutant and solid waste pollution and environmental decentralization did not show a significant nonlinear relationship; (3) The decentralization of environmental law enforcement power, monitoring power, and supervision power had a significantly negative impact on pollution reduction, among which the environmental law enforcement power played the largest role, and the supervision power played the smallest role; (4) Environmental decentralization weakened the effect of pollution reduction, but when the decentralization incentives of economic affairs were taken into account in the model, environmental decentralization showed a negative effect on decentralization incentives and collusion in pollution control. The policy implications of these results are: to further improve the implementation effect of environmental protection policies and the implementation ability of local governments in pollution reduction and control, it is inevitable to carry out substantive vertical system reform for environmental protection institutions. Combined with the decentralization incentive of regional economic development, it is appropriate to provide flexibility to the implementation of local environmental protection policies, which can also improve the pollution reduction and control effect to a certain extent.

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    Options of Chinese dietary pattern based on multi-objective optimization
    ZHANG Cuiling, QIANG Wenli, NIU Shuwen, WANG Rui, ZHANG He, CHENG Shengkui, LI Fan
    2021, 43 (6):  1140-1152.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.07
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    With the transformation of the food production and consumption systems, sustainable food consumption has become a global concern. China’s per capita food consumption structure has changed significantly during 1978-2017, leading to an increase in water and arable land resource demand, as well as greenhouse gas emissions for per capita’s food consumption. Therefore, in this study, based on the multiple objective programming method, we explored diets that minimize economic and resources and environmental costs subject to nutrient constraints. The results show that diet compositions that minimize the economic and environmental costs while meeting macronutrient (calories, protein, fat, and fiber) requirements look singular. When the micronutrient constraints are imposed, the minimal cost diet seems more diversified. Nevertheless, these hypothetical diet patterns consisting of few product groups and need to be further optimized. Diet compositions would be more reasonable if the dual constraints of nutritional composition and food consumption were considered together. Compared with the current food consumption pattern of China, the optimized dietary pattern significantly reduces the nutritional supply from meat, and increase the proportion of beans and milk in protein supplies greatly. The optimized dietary pattern also has reasonable nutritional conditions and lower cost compared with the current and other typical food consumption patterns. It means that the optimized dietary pattern meets the goals of sustainable food consumption. Moreover, it would reduce the water use, arable land use, and greenhouse gas emissions by about 312.2 m3, 256.0 m2, and 425.1 kg per capita per year for China relating to food consumption. Considering the increasing shortage of agricultural resources in China, the optimized dietary pattern that offers substantial health benefits could, if widely adopted, reduce the resources and environmental stress and help prevent diet- related chronic non- communicable diseases.

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    Analysis on the progressive motivation of carbon emissions growth in China using structural decomposition analysis and structural path decomposition methods
    ZHANG Yanzhi, FENG Ying, ZHANG Lei
    2021, 43 (6):  1153-1165.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.08
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    Identifying the key driving factors for the growth of carbon emissions in China is of great practical significance. Based on the non-competitive input-output (I-O) model and using the structural decomposition analysis and structural path analysis methods, this study examined the key driving factors for the growth of carbon emissions in China from the macro, meso, and micro levels. The research results show that: (1) The change of final demand scale was the leading factor influencing the increase of carbon emissions at the three levels; (2) Coal consumption played an important role in carbon emissions reduction and contributed a great deal, but its emissions reduction effect was offset by the emissions increase of other energy sources; (3) The effect of energy efficiency on each production stage was positive and showed a decreasing trend. The change of final demand structure had a significant effect on carbon emissions reduction in production stage 1, and a slight increase effect in other production stages; (4) Changes in final demand scale and direct consumption coefficients were the primary influencing factors for most of the top 30 industrial chains with emissions increase effect. The top 30 critical paths accounted for 25.7% of the increase of carbon emissions in China from 2010 to 2015, which constituted the key driving factors for the growth of carbon emissions in the country. Finally, the article put forward some corresponding recommendations on emissions reduction from the macro and micro levels.

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    Structural characteristics and driving factors of embodied carbon emissions from fishery production system in China
    LI Chen, LI Haoyu, KONG Haizheng, FENG Wei
    2021, 43 (6):  1166-1177.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.09
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    In the face of the new development situation, the traditional mode of fishery production no longer can meet the requirements of the current social transformation. The low-carbon development of the fishery industry is an inevitable choice for its sustainable development in China, a practical need to ensure the national food security and promote the income increase of farmers (fishermen) and economic and social development, and is of great significance for fundamentally promoting the supply side structural reform of China’s marine fisheries. Based on the input-output model and the extended Kaya identity, this study examined the changing trend and structural characteristics of embodied carbon emissions in China’s fishery production system, and decomposed the driving factors of the embodied carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) Embodied carbon emission of fishery production system in China as a whole showed a trend of rising, slightly decreasing, rising again, and falling, the primary fishery sector always had the highest embodied carbon emissions, but the embodied carbon emissions of the secondary and tertiary fishery sectors increased gradually. (2) Fishery capture and aquaculture, processing, and circulation are the main sectors of the embodied carbon emissions in the fishery industry. The embodied carbon emission level per unit output value of the three fishery sectors and the 12 sub-sectors all showed a downward trend, among which the embodied carbon emission level per unit output value of fishery drug, aquatic transportation, and fishery construction sub-sectors was the highest, which had a great impact on the embodied carbon emissions of the fishery industry. (3) The fishery economic growth and general fishery technological progress have positive impact on the embodied carbon emissions of the industry, and fishery economic growth is the main factor that drives the growth of the embodied carbon emissions. Fishery population, fishery economic structure, and low-carbon fishery technology have a certain degree of restraining effect to the embodied carbon emissions. Low-carbon fishery technologies are the biggest factor to restrain the embodied carbon emissions of fisheries in China. Therefore, adjusting the structure of the fishery industry, changing the mode of fishery growth, and improving the application level of low-carbon fishery technologies are the key to effectively restraining the embodied carbon emissions and realize the low-carbon development of the fishery industry in China.

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    Impact of the “National Comprehensive Reform Zone for Resource-Based Economy” policy on carbon emissions: A case study of Shanxi Province
    YU Zhihan, FANG Dan, YANG Jin
    2021, 43 (6):  1178-1192.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.10
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    Low-carbon development has become the main theme of economic and social development in China in the new era. In the process of economic transformation of resource-based economy of Shanxi Province, reducing carbon emissions and enhancing sustainability are the foundation for the transition to high-quality development. Based on the panel data of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2017, this study employed the synthetic control method to study the effect of the “Comprehensive Reform Zone” policy on carbon emissions. A mediating effect model was also established to investigate the key influencing factors and mechanism of influence. The results show that: (1) The reform policy of resource-based economy can effectively restrain the increase of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province. During the study period, compared with the carbon emission increase of 135.5% in the synthetically modeled result of Shanxi Province, affected by the policy, the actual carbon emissions in the province only increased by 89.6%, reducing carbon emissions by 6.55×107 tons in total. (2) In the short term after the policy is implemented, environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading both have effectively reduced carbon emissions at the 5% significance level. Environmental regulation played a mediating role while industrial structure upgrading functioned as a direct driving factor. (3) In the short term, financial development and technological innovation have increased the carbon emissions at the significance level of 10% and 5%, respectively. The results show that the policy of comprehensive reform zone has contributed to the low-carbon development of Shanxi Province by strengthening regulation and industrial transformation. However, it is still necessary to further consider the implications of financial development and scientific and technological innovations.

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    Evaluation of industrial land use efficiency of China’s three major urban agglomerations under technology heterogeneity
    HAN Haibin, NIU Kemeng
    2021, 43 (6):  1193-1207.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.11
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    Improving the industrial land use efficiency and tapping into the potential for conserving industrial land are feasible ways to alleviate the conflict between the supply and demand of industrial land in urban agglomerations and promote green and sustainable development. This study incorporated undesirable outputs into the evaluation system of industrial land use efficiency. Using the meta-frontier generalized directional distance function model (MGDDF), this study explored the industrial land use efficiency in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations with consideration of technology heterogeneity in these regions from 2003 to 2016. The results show that: (1) Under the meta-frontier, there are differences in industrial land use efficiency among the three urban agglomerations. The industrial land use efficiency of the Pearl River Delta is the highest, followed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Yangtze River Delta has the lowest efficiency. (2) The loss of industrial land use efficiency in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations mainly stem from management inefficiency, while the source of the loss of industrial land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has no obvious bias and the contribution of management inefficiency and technical inefficiency is roughly the same. (3) According to the decomposition results of industrial land use efficiency loss, the cities in the three urban agglomerations are divided into four types: maintaining the status quo, intra-group learning, overall improvement, and cross-group learning. This study would be useful for revealing the source of the loss of industrial land use efficiency in the three urban agglomerations and for tapping into the potential of industrial land conservation in the three urban agglomerations, which may have practical implications to formulating high-quality industrial land utilization policies in urban agglomerations.

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    Spatiotemporal change and driving factors of land use in the northern border transect of China, 1995-2015
    LIU Dan, LI Linna
    2021, 43 (6):  1208-1221.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.12
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    With the promotion of the Belt and Road initiative, the strategic position of the northern border region in China is increasingly significant. It is critical to study the land use pattern, process, and mechanism of change of this region for its sustainable development. Based on the land use/land cover change data in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, this study adopted the transect research method and applied spatial analysis and multiple linear regression to reveal the spatial-temporal pattern and driving factors of land use change in the northern border region. The main results are as follows. First, the northern border transect is dominated by ecological conservation land including forest land, grassland, water area, and unused land, accounting for more than 90% of the total area. The land use structure and spatial pattern had changed little in 20 years. Second, cultivated land and construction land expansion and ecological land degradation were the main characteristics of land use change in the region. Different types of land use/cover change in the northern border transect of China showed obvious temporal and spatial differences. Cultivated land and rural-urban construction land increased significantly after 2010. The pattern of land expansion gradually shifted from forest land and grassland conversion to the cultivation of unused land. Finally, urbanization and economic development were the main factors that promoted the expansion of cultivated land and construction land. Ecological land decreased passively in the process of active expansion of cultivated land and construction land, affected by natural, climatic, geographic, and agricultural technology level factors. Meanwhile, the intervention of policy and institution had a significant effect on the expansion of cultivated land and rural-urban construction land and ecological protection and restoration. The degradation of ecological land was contained overall, whereas risks of ecological environment deterioration such as the continued decline of grassland, shrinking water areas, and conversion of unused land in the northern border transect still exist.

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    Forecast on China’s cultivated land protection baseline in the new era by multi- scenario simulations
    YU Haochen, ZENG Siyan, WANG Qingbin, DAI Jin, BIAN Zhengfu, CHEN Fu
    2021, 43 (6):  1222-1233.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.13
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    Cultivated land is the cornerstone of national food security. However, there have been debates about how much cultivated land should be preserved to meet the bottom line of China’s food demand in the new era. Therefore, this study started from clarifying the minimum demand of cultivated land under different scenarios. A prediction model was constructed, which considered population, grain consumption per capita, and grain yield per unit cultivated area. Then, the cultivated land demand was simulated under three scenarios completely self-sufficient, highly self-sufficient, and moderately self-sufficient. Combining with the prediction of the cultivated land change, cultivated land protection was proposed at three levels, including the ideal amount that could be protected (IACP), the basic amount that should be protected (BASP), and the minimum amount that must be protected (MAMP). The results show that: in 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035, the IACP requires to preserve at least 1.920 billion, 1.839 billion, 1.847 billion and 1.657 billion mu, respectively; the BASP requires to preserve at least 1.849 billion, 1.772 billion, 1.778 billion and 1.612 billion mu, respectively; the MAMP requires to preserve at least 1.780 billion, 1.709 billion, 1.709 billion and 1.551 billion mu, respectively. There into, the BASP of cultivated land may be chosen as a rational strategy of protection. However, if the strict control policy is abandoned in the future, it will be difficult to meet the demand of completely self-sufficient in grain production in 2030 and 2035. Therefore, differentiated,continuous and strict policy of land protection should be implemented to ensure food security in China.

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    Climatic potential productivity and resources utilization efficiency of major grain crops in the main grain production areas of China, 1980-2019
    LUO Haiping, ZOU Nan, HU Xueying, WANG Shengyun
    2021, 43 (6):  1234-1247.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.14
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    Food production has been increasingly threatened by the frequent occurrences of global extreme climate. Under this background, it is of great significance to realize the efficient and sustainable utilization of agricultural climatic resources. The main grain production areas in China are a core region for food security of the country. This study empirically calculated maize, rice, and wheat crop climatic potential productivities in the main grain production areas of China from 1980 to 2019 by using step-correcting mechanism model, and analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of actual production level and climatic potential productivity in 186 cities in these areas by using a gravity center shift model. It also comprehensively assessed agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency at the city scale. Important results are as follows: (1) Tendency rate of maize, rice, and wheat crop climatic potential productivity in the main grain production areas of China from 1980 to 2019 was -156.80 kg/(hm2·10 a), 68.82 kg/(hm2·10 a), and 121.92 kg/(hm2·10 a) respectively. (2) Spatial change of climatic potential productivity showed three characteristics higher and lower maize climatic potential productivity areas both narrowed; spatial structure of rice climatic potential productivity basically remained unchanged; and higher wheat climatic potential productivity area enlarged. (3) Gravity centers of actual production level and climatic potential productivity changed in the same direction and the distance of migration of climatic potential productivity gravity center was shorter than that of actual production level. (4) Agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency was higher in the agricultural areas of the North China Plain, Northeast China, and Southwest China, and agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency was lower in the agricultural area of the Lower Yangtze Region. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the focus of grain production. The utilization efficiency of climatic resources in the main grain producing areas can be comprehensively improved by alleviating the pressure of grain production in areas with poor climatic conditions, and tapping the climatic potential productivity of areas with rich climatic resources.

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    Spatiotemporal variations of NDVI of different vegetation types in the Baiyangdian Basin under the background of climate change
    CHEN Ting, XIA Jun, ZOU Lei, YAN Qiang
    2021, 43 (6):  1248-1259.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.15
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    Understanding the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its response to climate change is of great significance for the protection and construction of regional ecological environments. Based on the SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI data, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of NDVI and its response to climate change between 2001-2018 in the whole area as well as in different types of vegetation cover zones of the Baiyangdian Basin were analyzed by using Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis, fluctuation analysis, and correlation analysis. The results indicate that: (1) From 2001 to 2018, vegetation NDVI in the whole region showed an increasing trend, with an increase rate of 0.0031/a, and 53.79% area passed the significance test (P<0.05). The NDVI of coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests, bushland, grassland, and meadows showed an obvious increasing trend (P<0.05), but the NDVI of swamp and cultivated land did not show obvious change. (2) The fluctuation of vegetation NDVI in the whole region was low. The fluctuation of NDVI was significantly low in 67.81% area of the region (P<0.05). Except in grassland and meadows, significantly low fluctuation was observed at over 50% of the area in all other vegetation types. (3) There was a weak correlation between NDVI and temperature. Except for swamp and cultivated land, the response of NDVI to precipitation was more consistent for the remaining vegetation types, with a significant positive correlation (P<0.05). The effect of temperature on NDVI was not significant at the watershed scale and in different vegetation types. The results of this study have certain significance for understanding the mechanism of impact of climate change on vegetation growth and for regional ecological environment protection and governance.

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    Climate changes over the Arctic land during 1979-2017
    CHEN Xiaolong, WANG Ping
    2021, 43 (6):  1260-1274.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.16
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    The Arctic is one of the rapidly changing regions remarkably influenced by global warming. Polar warming amplification (warming rate two times larger than the global mean) and rapidly declining sea ice lead to not only dramatic changes in the local environment, but also profound effects on weather and climate system in the mid-latitude. An in-depth understanding of seasonal and geographical features of long-term trends can contribute to policy responses to climate change and its consequence, supporting Arctic resource development in the future. Using gridded observational analysis datasets and the ERA-Interim reanalysis, this study focused on linear trends of surface air temperature, precipitation, and related extreme indices in the land area north of 60°N during 1979-2017. The results show that temperature changes highly agree with each other while precipitation changes are distinct across the multiple data sources, especially after 2008, which is possibly caused by sharply decreased gauges in use under the global financial crisis. The ERA-Interim dataset can well reproduce the upward trends of near-surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic land, about (0.57±0.07) ℃/10 a and (0.10±0.05) mm/d/100 a for annual mean. The warming trend is strong in spring, autumn, and winter whereas weak in summer. Areas near the Arctic coasts have the largest warming rate, with local warming higher than 1.0 ℃/10 a. The increasing trend of precipitation in autumn is the largest. The precipitation increases in Siberia are well linked to the local surface warming. During autumn, increases in both the mean and extreme precipitation in eastern Siberia can be as high as the thermodynamically constrained 8 %/K. No evident trend of diurnal temperature range is observed in summer. In spring, the diurnal temperature range in Alaska and northern Canada increases evidently whereas a decreasing trend emerges in other regions. Annual temperature range decreases in the Nordic, Alaska, and northern Canada while increases in western and eastern Siberia. In both winter and summer, warming trend of minimum temperature over the Arctic is larger than that of maximum temperature, which is also larger in winter than in summer. This study evidences that surface warming is an important driver of local precipitation increase over the Arctic land while circulation changes may create the geographical differences; decrease of observational stations has an obviously negative impact on monitoring the long-term trend of precipitation; ERA-Interim is an important alternative to observational analysis data in the Arctic land. Especially for regions with sparse weather stations and for periods when the number of available stations decreases, the ERA-Interim data can provide consistent and reliable climate change information.

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