Table of Content

    28 August 2019, Volume 41 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Impacts of drought disasters and farmland irrigation on wheat production technical efficiency
    Jian LUAN,Yijun HAN
    2019, 41 (8):  1387-1439.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.01
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    Drought disasters cause great reduction of wheat yield. It is of vital importance to clarify the impact of drought disasters on wheat production technical efficiency under different levels of farmland irrigation. Based on panel data of 15 major wheat producing provinces of China from 1991 to 2016, stochastic frontier analysis and panel threshold regression model were used in this study to explore the temporal and spatial change of wheat production technical efficiency and the threshold effect of drought disasters on wheat production technical efficiency, as well as temporal and spatial heterogeneity of drought disaster mitigation capacities of farmland irrigation infrastructure. The results are as follows: (1) There is an overall increasing trend with an average annual growth rate of 0.98% of wheat production technical efficiency, which also shows obvious temporal variation convergence and spatial heterogeneity in different regions. Eastern China has the highest level of wheat production technical efficiency, leading the movement of production frontiers. There is a large potential for the central and western regions to improve wheat production technical efficiency. (2) As effective irrigation rate increases, drought disasters show a double threshold effect on wheat production technical efficiency. The negative impact of droughts decreases with the increase of effective irrigation rate. (3) Disaster mitigation capacities of farmland irrigation infrastructure have been significantly improved from 1991 to 2016, while there are still some provinces, such as Gansu, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan, whose disaster mitigation capacities are relatively weak. Therefore, the key to alleviating constrains of drought disasters and improving the quality and efficiency of wheat production is to strengthen farmland irrigation investments according to local circumstances to increase effective irrigation rate.

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    Resource and economic effects of drip irrigation in the Bohai Rim area: Consistency of goals of the government and farmers
    Zhexi ZHANG,Yueying MU,Lingling HOU,Xin YANG
    2019, 41 (8):  1400-1415.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.02
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    Water resources are an important factor that affects rural social and economic development and farmers’ income. This study starts from the goal of coordinating the government and farmers on efficiency and income,based on the survey data of 357 vegetable growers of the main vegetable production area in the Bohai Rim in 2017, applied the simultaneous equations model (SEM), conditional mixture process (CMP), propensity score matching (PSM), and instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) to investigate the efficiency and income increase ability of drip irrigation technology and the constraints of promotion effect at the micro level, to explore the path to promote sustainable development of China’s agriculture. The results show that: (1) In the main production areas facing severe water scarcity, households with fewer years of planting, abundant capital, and higher level of knowledge on water saving tend to adopt drip irrigation technology; (2) Drip irrigation technology has significant effects on increasing production efficiency and income. The output of unit irrigation water and income on average increase by 17.16 kg/t of vegetables and 45.90 yuan/t for farmers who adopt the drip irrigation technology, which provides long-term incentives for its broader adoption; (3) The output and economic effects of drip irrigation technology have a “Matthew effect,” which means that farmers with better production conditions benefit more from the technology; (4) Imperfect design of irrigation system, poor design and quality of equipment engineering, inadequate training and after-sales service, lack of professional knowledge and technology of farmers, weak ability to practice modern agriculture, and poorly designed subsidies of the government are important factors affecting the enthusiasm of farmers to adopt drip irrigation technology. Furthermore, proper increase of irrigation water price will help speed up the popularization of field water-saving technology.

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    An interval-parameter two-stage partial information programming model for optimal urban water resource planning
    Hongguang CHEN,Zhongjun WANG,Qiongya WANG,Shukui MAI
    2019, 41 (8):  1416-1426.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.03
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    In this paper, the interval two-stage stochastic programming method (ITSP) and the linear partial information (LPI) theory are combined to construct an interval-parameter two-stage partial information model (ITPM) with multi-source, multi-user and multi-objective. ITPM model can solve the problem that the traditional model ignores the uncertainty of urban rainfall-runoff which could lead to the discrepancy between the results of water distribution and the actual situation. The model was applied to the joint operation of surface water and groundwater in Harbin. Uncertainty of rainfall-runoff was analyzed by linear partial information theory. Four scenarios of flow level's probability distribution of discharge were obtained. Interval number and random number represent other uncertainties. An interactive algorithm was introduced to solve the model, and water shortage, optimal allocation, and overall benefits of urban water distribution system under different scenarios for urban water users were obtained. The allocation results were compared with those of the two-stage stochastic programming model. The results show that compared with the traditional water distribution model, the interval-parameter two-stage partial information model (ITPM) overcomes the impact of uncertainties such as rainfall-runoff on the benefits of water distribution system. ITPM model can effectively balance the economic benefits and the penalty risk of water shortage. Through ITPM model, four kinds of flow level distribution scenarios are obtained for water resources allocation in Harbin. When the probability of low flow level increases, the risk of water shortage increases, conservative water distribution schemes are obtained, and the economic benefits of the system decrease. When the probability of medium and high flow level increases, the available water quantity increases and gets positive water distribution schemes. In the same time, the economic benefits of the system increased. The optimal allocation schemes obtained by ITPM model is given in the form of intervals, which can more truly reflect the actual situation of urban water resources management and provide decision-making space for managers.

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    Willingness of public participation in water ecological civilization construction:Based on questionnaire surveys from five pilot cities
    Yongliang BAI,Aoxing CHENG,Jinhua CHENG
    2019, 41 (8):  1427-1437.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.04
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    In the process of China’s rapid promotion of water ecological civilization construction, public participation has gradually become the key factor to improve its efficiency. This study examined the effect of environmental, institutional, and cognitive factors on residents’ willingness in participating in ecological civilization construction, using 1379 survey questionnaires from five national-level water ecological civilization construction pilot cities and a structural equation model under the conceptual framework of individual behavior. The empirical results show that the influence coefficients of water ecological environment, government’s water ecological civilization construction effort, and cognition of water ecological civilization on residents’ willingness to participate in water ecological civilization construction are 0.26, 0.34, and 0.90 respectively. Residents’ cognition of ecological civilization is the most important positive influencing factor, and the positive impact of environmental and institutional factors on willingness remains to be improved. On the basis of these findings, we suggest that the current construction of ecological civilization in China should focus on strengthening the cultivation of residents’ ecological civilization cognition while dealing with environmental problems.

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    Reasonable initial price interval calculation of carbon market
    Yazhi SONG,Tiansen LIU,Dapeng LIANG,Shijin WANG
    2019, 41 (8):  1438-1449.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.05
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    Currently there is a disconnection between carbon price and market supply-and-demand in China’s carbon pilot market and the carbon pricing system has failed to meet the development needs of carbon markets. To address this problem, this study used the stochastic analysis method to measure carbon cost from the perspective of firms, and developed a determinant equation that affects corporate carbon costs based on the decoupling theory. Using this equation, we simulated the linkages between firm-government-market and initial carbon price, thereby obtaining the fluctuation interval of such price that conforms to the pattern of China’s carbon market development. Through empirical tests, we obtained the following results. (1) Government’s penalty cost and the probability of quota shortage both are key factors that restrict emission control firms to obtain carbon trading income, and a premise to ensure the sound development of carbon market is to balance the relation among firms, the government, and the market. (2) The setting of initial carbon price is directly related to the emission reduction efficiency that is expected by the government in the carbon market, and in the current economic environment, the reasonable setting range of initial carbon price in the national unified market is [41, 52] Yuan/t. (3) Penalty cost explains 97% of the setting of initial carbon price, and penalty mechanism is the best tool that can lead to the sound development of carbon markets at the government level currently. (4) Both market efficiency and emission reduction goal are main indicators that affect carbon price setting in the long run, and one important premise for the sound development of carbon market is to set up a two-way initial price system of “market-government.” This article provides theoretical underpinnings as well as empirical support for enriching China’s carbon market price theory and setting the initial carbon price scientifically.

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    Spatial and temporal differences of agricultural carbon emissions and impact factors of the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on a water-land perspective
    Ruomei WANG,Hailiang MA,Jin WANG
    2019, 41 (8):  1450-1461.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.06
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    The production of traditional agricultural products of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, such as rice and potatoes, accounts for more than 50% of the national total in China. The agricultural carbon emissions directly affect the green development of the region. From a system’s point of view, the interactions of water, land, energy, and carbon was comprehensively considered, and based on this, spatial and temporal differences of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its impact factors were studied. (1) At the meso-level, agricultural carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2009 to 2016 were calculated, and the matching degree of water and land was calculated to lay the foundation for the introduction of water and land elements into Kaya’s identity. (2) With the help of logarithmic mean divisia index method, contribution values of impact factors of agricultural carbon emissions were discussed. The results show that: (1) From 2009 to 2016, the overall agricultural carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a staged upward trend, with a growth rate of 16.43% from 1208.7398×10 4 t in 2009 to 1407.2846×10 4 t in 2016, and the proportion of agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hubei provinces reached 59.32% in 2016; (2) For the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole, agricultural carbon emissions intensity, agricultural land and water use ratio, and per capita arable land area are inhibitory factors for agricultural carbon emissions, while economic output of agricultural water resources and population factors are contributing factors; (3) At the provincial level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the effects of impact factors on agricultural carbon emissions are different, especially the agricultural land and water use ratio, which plays a promoting role in Hunan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan provinces, but a inhibiting role in Shanghai and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Hubei provinces and Municipality. Provinces with high matching degree of water and land (MDWL) have relatively higher inhibiting effect on agricultural carbon emissions compared with provinces with low MDWL. Based on this, it is proposed that water, land, and energy elements should be comprehensively considered to formulate low-carbon agriculture development strategies and combine low-carbon development of agriculture with water-saving, energy-saving, and conservation and utilization of cultivated land.

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    Impact of urbanization on food security: Evidence from provincial panel data in China
    Yanlei GAO,Zhengyan ZHANG,Suhao WEI,Zhigang WANG
    2019, 41 (8):  1461-1474.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.07
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    The role of urbanization in agricultural development has always attracted wide attention of researchers. However, a consensus on the impact of urbanization on food security has not been reached. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China’s mainland from 2000 to 2016, this study used the mediation effect model to explore the impacting mechanism of urbanization on food security, and carried out an empirical analysis for the different types of grain supply-demand balance areas. The results show that urbanization has a significant positive impact on food security in terms of national level. With regard to the effects of the mediating factors, land and labor are negative, while agricultural technology is positive and most significant. Urbanization has a significant positive impact on food security in the main grain producing areas and the supply-demand balanced areas, and the positive intermediary effect of agricultural technology is far greater than the negative effects of both land and labor. However, a significant negative impact exists in the grain importing areas, and the impacting factors include land, labor, and technology, but the negative intermediary effect of land is the largest. To ensure food security, we should focus on using agricultural land intensively, improving the quality of labor force, and strengthening investment in agricultural technology.

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    Effects of dairy imports on the efficiency of cow farming operations of different scales in China
    Yanjiao WEI,Jing ZHU
    2019, 41 (8):  1475-1487.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.08
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    In this study we examined how dairy imports affect the domestic cow farming sector in China. We evaluated the effects of dairy imports on dairy operations of differing sizes with the Technological Gap Model using a set of unique panel date of 28 main dairy producing provinces from 2004-2014. The results show that dairy imports contribute to the integration of the domestic cow farming sector. Specifically, there is a negative effect on the efficiency of unorganized farming operations, leading to their exit from the cow farming sector. In contrast, dairy imports positively affect dairy operations of all other sizes, with small size operations bearing the highest effect in magnitude, followed by medium size operations, while large size operations bear the lowest effect. Therefore, China’s dairy import should be analyzed scientifically and trade policy should be implemented reasonably. Diversified moderate-scale breeding entities should be promoted to participate in international competition actively, in order to improve the overall efficiency of cow farming industry.

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    Spatial correlation between urban health resources and population distribution:A case study of the central urban area of Changsha City
    Zhao RAN,Guohua ZHOU,Honghui ZHANG,Chengli TANG,Weiyang CHEN
    2019, 41 (8):  1488-1499.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.09
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    Based on points of interest, remote sensing, and statistical data of the central urban area of Changsha City, this study analyzed the correlation of the aggregation, proximity, and accessibility of urban health resources and population by using Ripley’s k function, colocation quotient, and two-step floating catchment area methods. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of urban health resources and population showed clustering characteristics, but there were significant differences in the scale and intensity of agglomeration at different scales, indicating that the coordination of spatial distribution between urban health resources and population needs to be improved. (2) The correlation of proximity between urban health resources and population distribution is poor, showing a non-linear relationship. Urban health resources and population distribution tend to be far away from each other, but the proximity between different types of health resources and the population is different. (3) Accessibility of urban health resources showed a center-periphery structure spatially. However, urban health resource accessibility and population density distribution indicate a mismatch of supply and demand of health resources. Finally, in order to address the problems existing between urban health resource provision and population distribution, specific optimization and adjustments were recommended, focusing on “coordinating the layout, improving proximity, and precision allocation.”

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    The influence of environmental concern and institutional trust on farmers’ willingness to participate in rural domestic waste treatment
    Yajuan JIA,Minjuan ZHAO
    2019, 41 (8):  1500-1512.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.10
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    Rural domestic waste treatment is an important part of the overall improvement of rural living environment, and its effectiveness is closely related to the participation of the waste producer and direct beneficiary of the governance effect - farmers. Based on the household survey data of rural areas in Shaanxi Province, this study used the double-column model (DHM) to analyze and investigate the influence of environmental concern on the farmers’ willingness to participate in treatment (willingness to participate and willingness to pay) in rural domestic waste treatment. Using hierarchical regression analysis, the moderating effect of institutional trust on the relationship between environmental concern and farmers’ willingness to pay was studied. The results show that environmental concern has a significant positive effect on farmers' willingness to participate and pay;institutional trust not only significantly promotes the willingness to participate and pay of farmers, but also has a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between environmental concern and payment willingness to pay of farmers. For farmers with high institutional trust, environmental concern plays a stronger role in promoting their participation. In addition, years of education and the number of family members positively affect the willingness of farmers to participate, and the willingness to participate in waste treatment of families with higher income is relatively stronger. Therefore, improving farmers’ awareness of environmental issues, adjusting regulations to increase their acceptance by farmers, and creating a good environment of institutional trust will facilitate promoting rural domestic waste treatment.

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    Influencing factors and performance evaluation of green mining in Hubei Province
    Yongqing WANG,Laifeng WANG,Hongxing DENG,Kai DONG
    2019, 41 (8):  1513-1525.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.11
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    The analysis of influencing factors and performance of green mining is of great significance for promoting green mine development and forming green mining in an all-round way. Based on the data of 596 mining enterprises in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2015, this study used panel data Logit model to identify the influencing factors of green mine development and used propensity score matching (PSM) model to analyze the influence of some factors on the performance of green mining, including scale of the mines, mineral types, and main functional areas. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The importance of influencing factors is in the following order: mining scale, economic value of mines, “three-rate” survey of minerals, main functional area, urbanization level, economic type of mining, and annual investment. The “three-rate” survey and urbanization progress have promoted the green mine development. Large and medium-sized mines, mines in key ecological protection areas, state-owned and collective enterprises are more active in implementing the development of green mines. Insufficient investment of enterprises is a key factor restricting green mine development. (2) The effect of improving the economic efficiency of enterprises from green mine development is: large mines>medium-sized mines>small mines, non-metallic mines>metal mines; the improvement effect of mine environmental management investment is: key ecological functional areas>major agricultural products producing areas>key development areas, non-metallic mines>metal mines; the effects of tailings treatment and utilization from green mine development is: “three-rate” survey of minerals>non-“three-rate” survey of minerals. Our suggestions are as follows: The “three-rate” survey of mineral resources should be carried out in an all-round way to increase utilization rate of resource. To enhance the supervision and management of protection and restoration of mine eco-environment, mines are encouraged to increase investment in mine environmental management and the comprehensive utilization of tailings. Promote the development of green mines from isolated sites to areas, establish green demonstration area of mining, and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional mining industry through demonstration and dissemination.

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    Spatiotemporal dynamics of active fire frequency in Southeast Asia with the FIRMS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) data
    Peng LI,Wenjun LI,Zhiming FENG,Chiwei XIAO,Yiyuan LIU
    2019, 41 (8):  1526-1540.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.12
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    Active fire (including vegetation fire) influences the carbon cycle of global terrestrial ecosystem, and its occurrence types, ignition causes, spatiotemporal features, and impacts are important research questions. Currently, remote sensing is the main way to obtain the spatial and temporal information and occurrence frequency of active fires. With the two standard active fire data products, including MODIS C6 (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6) and VIIRS V1 (Visible infrared Imaging Radiometer Version 1) provided by the US NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), the distribution characteristics and dynamic changes of satellite-based fire occurrence (frequency) in Southeast Asia (SEA) were quantitatively examined with ArcGIS 10.5 platform at hourly, ten-day, monthly, and annual levels and national to regional (Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) and Island Southeast Asia (ISEA)) scales. The differences in the two active fire datasets were compared accordingly. The results show that: (1) Active fire occurrence frequencies were 4.42×10 6 in SEA based on the MODIS C6 products of 2000-2017, showing clear annual fluctuations. Temporal consistency between the occurrence frequency of maximum active fire and global El Niño events during the same period was detected. MSEA, in comparison with ISEA, was the primary region for active fires in SEA, displaying about one year gap in response to El Niño. However, active fire in ISEA countries (for example, Indonesia) was more sensitive to El Niño. (2) In the past near two decades, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam from MSEA and Indonesia in ISEA were the leading countries for active fire occurrence, especially in regions such as eastern and western Myanmar, northern Laos, northern Cambodia, northwest Vietnam, and the southern parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan of Indonesia. (3) Active fires showed high occurrences in the five MSEA countries during the dry season, especially from February to April, and mostly in March. Similar results in the three ISEA countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines) were reported between June and November, particularly from August to October, and mostly in September. Within these months, active fires were primarily seen in mid-to-late month, and typically observed at five to seven a.m. and five to seven p. m. in Greenwich Mean Time (GMT), mostly at six a.m. (GMT). (4) Active fire counts derived from VIIRS V1 were about five times that of MODIS C6 during the same period (2012-2017), showing similar trends of annual changes. The latter has the advantage of longer time series since 2000, while the former has higher accuracy of detection with more detailed information and greater potential for application.

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    Demand of urban green space cool islands based on heat island pattern: A case study of Chaoyang District of Beijing
    Yunting SHI,Biao ZHANG,Jixi GAO,Yue TONG,Shanshan SHAO
    2019, 41 (8):  1541-1550.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.13
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    Urban green space is often used as an effective measure to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect through their cooling effect. Although abundant studies have observed the cool island phenomenon of urban green space, few studies estimated cool island demand in the context of urban heat island. This study built an empirical model of cool island demand on the basis of urban heat island spatial pattern, and estimated the demand level and configuration requirement of green space for UHI mitigation. The results indicate that in 2017, there existed about 6522 hm 2 of heat islands with land surface temperature exceeding 40℃ in Chaoyang District. The number of urban heat island patches reached 619, concentrated in the southern part of Chaoyang District. The area of heat islands greatly increased from the western to the eastern part of the city. Approximately 6154 hm 2 of cool islands were needed for the mitigation of the urban heat island effect. The area of high demand region for cool islands was 1054 hm 2, distributed in Balizhuang of Chaoyang District. The moderate demand region reached 2021 hm 2, located in Shuangjing, Jinsong, and Panjiayuan. The remaining 3079 hm 2 belonged to the low demand region for cool islands, scattered in the district. In planned ecological land, urban green space cool island demand region should meet the requirement of greening area, community structure, and vegetation configuration, whereas the cool island demand area in the planned construction land should improve and utilize the cooling effect of adjacent green spaces.

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    Farmland transfer performance and obstacles from the perspective of farmers’ livelihood:Based on rural household survey of greater Wuhan Metropolitan Area
    Man CHEN,Chenlin GAN,Yun MEI,Yinrong CHEN
    2019, 41 (8):  1551-1562.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.14
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    Farmers are the most directly affected by farmland transfer policy. Their livelihood satisfaction is the subjective evaluation of the livelihood change based on their own standards and the ultimate assessment of farmland transfer performance. Examining the performance of farmland transfer and its barriers from the perspective of farmers’ livelihoods is of great significance for improving the performance of farmland transfer and promoting the sustainable development of rural land transfer. This study constructed a satisfaction index system from seven dimensions of natural, human, physical, financial, social, psychological, and policy capitals. The Wuhan Metropolitan Area was selected for case study, and the entropy weight Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method and the obstacle degree model were used to evaluate the performance of farmland transfer policy and reveal the obstacles. We found that the performance level of the entire surveyed area is average. The most important factors affecting the performance of farmland transfer are policy capital, natural capital, and psychological capital. The main obstacles that affect the performance of farmland transfer were farmers’ satisfaction with government’s respect for individual willingness to transfer (PS1), farmers’ satisfaction with changes in land quality after transfer (N1), and farmers’ satisfaction with government’s farmland transfer policy supervision work (PO4). The government plays a vital role in promoting the transfer of agricultural land. In order to improve the performance of farmland transfer, the government should improve the farmland transfer system and process, standardize the management mechanism, and prevent the non-food production and non-agricultural use of the transferred land on the basis of fully respecting the farmers’ wishes.

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    Dynamic evolution mechanism of regional disparity in labor productivity of planting
    Fuxia YANG,Fan ZHENG,Mian YANG
    2019, 41 (8):  1563-1575.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.15
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    This study evaluates the mechanism of change of regional differences in labor productivity of planting using the dataset for 31 provinces in China’s mainland over the period 2000-2016. Based on a non-parametric estimation method, labor productivity growth of planting is decomposed into five components including technical efficiency, technological progress, substitution effect of capital to labor, substitution effect of land to labor, and output structure effect. The results indicate that: (1) The regional differences in labor productivity of planting present an obvious upward trend during the whole study period. It experienced an alternate change process of “expanding (2000-2003)”, “narrowing (2003-2009)”, “another expanding (2009-2012)”, “another narrowing (2012-2016)”. (2) Technological progress contributed to the divergence in the first phase. Subsequently, the improvement of technical efficiency and the optimization of output structure jointly narrowed the gaps. Afterward, the adjustment of the output structure led to the expansion of regional disparity. Recently, due to the optimization of land-labor ratio and output structure, the regional gaps became narrower.

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    Threshold effect of agricultural population transfer on cultivated land use efficiency in Jiangxi Province
    Xiuqing ZOU,Ying WANG,Tingyan WU,Yulin YIN,Xiaosong TU,Guoliang XU
    2019, 41 (8):  1576-1588.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.16
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    The large-scale transfer of agricultural population to cities and secondary and tertiary industries causes other agricultural production factors to change, ultimately affecting the efficiency of cultivated land use. In this study, 11 cities in Jiangxi Province were used as research areas. The super-EBM (Epsilon Based Measure) model was used to measure the utilization efficiency of cultivated land from 2007 to 2016. On this basis, taking the proportion of agricultural transferred population in agricultural population as the threshold variable, the impact of agricultural population transfer on farmland utilization efficiency was analyzed through the panel threshold model. The study indicates that during the inspection period, the agricultural transfer population and the cultivated land use efficiency of the cities in Jiangxi Province showed an upward trend, and the regional differences were significant. In 2016, the impact of agricultural population transfer on the efficiency of cultivated land utilization in most cities of Jiangxi Province showed a threshold effect. Before and after the threshold value (0.428), agricultural population transfer always promoted the efficiency of cultivated land use, but its impact coefficient decreased from 0.5089 to 0.2495. The promotion effect is reduced by 51%. According to whether the degree of agricultural population transfer is across the threshold, the countermeasures for improving the utilization efficiency of cultivated land for different regions are proposed.

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