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Table of Content

    20 November 2017, Volume 39 Issue 11 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Orginal Article
    The coordination and response between regional marine economy and marine science and technology in China
    SUN Caizhi, GUO Kemeng, ZOU Wei
    2017, 39 (11):  2017-2022.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.01
    Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (3299KB) ( )   Save
    Aiming at constructing the marine economy and marine science and technology evaluation system which is suitable for Chinese coastal areas, this paper estimates the levels of marine economy and marine science and technology of 11 coastal provincial-level areas from 2000 to 2014 based on the subjective and objective weighting. By using the coordinated development model, this paper measures the coordinated development degree of marine economy and marine science and technology, and analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of the coordinated development degree of the two aspects. Based on the impulse response function of VAR model, the response relationship between marine economy and marine science and technology was examined in a dynamic way. The results show that, in recent years, the levels of marine economy and marine science and technology present an increasing trend. The coordinated development between marine economy and marine science and technology has been increasing year by year. From 2000 to 2007,the coordinated development degree of Fujian province was significantly improved. And the coordinated development degree of Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong was promoted from intermediate coordination development to high-level coordinated development from 2007 to 2014. Nationally, the marine economy had a weak response to marine science and technology,while the latter had a strong response to the former. The relationships between the two parts are different from various regions.
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    The variations and trend analyses of sea area use in China
    LEI Lei, GAO Qiuxiang, YANG Chen
    2017, 39 (11):  2030-2039.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.02
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    In order to promote the rational utilization of marine resources and the effective allocation of sea area,it is important to get a better understanding of the changing trend of sea area use scale and structure. In the current study,temporal-spatial differences of sea area use scale and structure in China from 2002 to 2015 were analyzed by using the centralization index of Lorentz Curve,Information Entropy,Equilibrium degree and Dominance degree. The changing trend of sea area use was predicted by using R/S method,and the main factors influencing sea area use changes were also explored. The results could be concluded as follows:(1)the scale of nationwide sea area use has increased continuously with a high degree of spatial agglomeration. The newly increased sea area use scale has been rolling up and the spatial differences of sea area use was enlarged during the study period. The sea area use is mainly concentrated in Liaoning,Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. (2)The sea area use of fisheries,industry and communication accounts for a high proportion. The relative growth rate of sea area use speeded up in most categories (with the exception of sewage dumping and other types of sea area use). The dominant degree of sea area use structure first decreased from 2002 to 2004 and then increased after 2004. The sea area use structure was approaching to an ordered state based on reducing information entropy. Ocean development may negatively impact the marine environment through declining sea water quality and disrupting ecological balance. (3)In the next 14 years (2016—2029),sea area use scale will keep the same changing trend as the past and will still be growing in the whole country as well as in coastal provinces of China. The categories of sea area use scale such as industry,communication,submarine engineering and special use will keep increasing,while those such as fishery and tourism & recreation will slow down and the sea area use of sewage dumping will present a downward trend. (4)The scale and structure of sea area use and their changes have been influenced by many factors including the location,history,economy,land and policy of the local administrative division where the sea area is distributed,which may have negative impacts on the marine ecological environment. The results of the current study will provide reference value and guidance significance to formulate administrative policies and relevant optimizing strategies for sea area use.
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    Marine fishery economic efficiency and its spatio-temporal differences based on undesirable outputs in China
    SUN Kang, JI Jianwen, LI Lidan, ZHANG Chao, LIU Junfeng, FU Min
    2017, 39 (11):  2040-2051.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.03
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    In view of the fact that the pollution index is not easy to measure,less attention has been paid to the undesirable outputs from the frontier quantitative research on marine fishery economy. In this study,it is assumed the negative effect caused by pollution of marine natural fisheries waters as the undesirable outputs. We adopt SBM (Slacks based measure)model to evaluate the economic efficiency of marine fishery in 11 coastal provincial-level areas of China from 2004 to 2015. Furthermore,we use Kernel density and Tobit model to analyze the spatio-temporal evolu-tion and influencing factors of economic efficiency of marine fishery. The results show that:In the time series perspective,the economic efficiency of marine fishery remains low,indicating that the marine fishery economic restructuring and upgrading has not yet achieved the desirable effect;From the perspective of time and space,the economic efficiency of marine fishery in the study area has shown a polarization trend and has not been effectively improved. This indicates that the level of marine fishery development is unbalanced in China. Generally speaking,the economic efficiency of marine fishery is low,which indicates that marine fishery economic development is relatively slow in China. In terms of industrial structure,the main reason for the low overall economic efficiency of marine fishery is attributed to the high proportion of the primary industry and the low level of technology,suggesting that marine fishery industry structure continues to follow the traditional mode that the primary industry dominates the economy. In order to reverse the negative relationship between the professional level and efficiency of fishermen's employment, it should be improved in quality and efficiency of the transfer industry and employment policy. In the future,marine fishery will face the dual challenges of institutional and structural transformation in China. According to the different resource endowments of coastal areas,firstly,the institutional innovation should hold a leading position in the transformation and upgrading of the system. Secondly,it is urgent to develop a differentiated and innovative development path. To improve the economic efficiency of marine fishery,we should adjust the industrial structure and optimize the regional layout.
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    Spatio-temporal analysis and type classification of marine economic growth quality in Bohai Rim region
    LI Bo, TIAN Chuang, SHI Zhaoyuan
    2017, 39 (11):  2052-2061.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.04
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    The quality of marine economic growth needs improving urgently under the background of the implementation of national ocean strategy. Based on the analysis of the progress of marine economic research at home and abroad,we use entropy method and set pair analysis to measure the marine economic growth quality of 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim region from 2000 to 2014. The Kernel density estimation method and Mean standard deviation method are employed to analyze the growth quality of the marine economy in the study region. The results can reflect the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of the marine economic growth quality during the study period. The conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)In terms of the temporal dimension,the growth quality of the marine economy in the Bohai Rim region is skewed as a non-strict single peak. Seen from the Kurtosis,the growth quality of the marine economy in this region shows a broad peak shape to the peak development trend from 2000 to 2014. And the marine economic growth quality in the majority of the cities has been greatly improved. (2)In terms of the spatial dimension,the distribution pattern of grades for marine economic growth quality in the study region tends to change from “high in the north and low in the south” to “high in the south and low in the north”. (3)By classifying marine economic growth quality,we can find the cities in rapid growth are Qingdao,Tangshan and Cangzhou;the cities in steady growth are Tianjin,Qinhuangdao,Yantai,Weifang,Rizhao and Dandong;the cities in slow growth are Dalian,Jinzhou,Yingkou,Panjin,Huludao,Weihai,Binzhou and Dongying;the type division of marine economic growth quality provides reference for the marine economic development of these cities.
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    Environmental change,transfer price and willingness of forestland transfer based on the survey of farmers in Guangdong and Jiangxi
    ZHANG Ziqiang, LI Yi
    2017, 39 (11):  2062-2072.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.05
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    Based on the maximization of farmer households’ utility,this paper developed a model of the relationship between households’ willingness of collective forestland transfer and forestland transfer price. We found that the expected price of forestland transfer depended on the income of forestry management. And,households’ income was changed due to the change of macroeconomic environment. Therefore,clarifying the logical relationship is important for local governments to design and implement relevant policies that are conducive to forestland scale management. On the one hand,in the past decades,timber prices have kept going up and are expected to rise in the future. Moreover,non-timber values of forestland management have increased continuously in recent years. With both the changes,the endowment effect of forestland was enhanced. As a result,these factors have helped raise the expected price of forestland transfer among farmers. In addition,with the increasing upgrade of forestry management abilities,farmers are more willing to manage woodlands and reluctant to convert woodlands to other types of land. On the other hand,the increment of forest scale income is limited,which is not conducive to the rise of the expected price of forestland transfer. Based on survey data from farmers in Jiangxi and Guangdong provinces,we found that collective forestland transfer among farmers were inactive such as less ratio of forestland transfer,low frequency of forestland transfer and low willingness of forestland transfer. Furthermore,the empirical results show that the trees with longer rotation receive low willingness of forestland transfer. The forestry financial services have a significantly negative impact on the farmers' willingness of forestland transfer. Finally,we believe that the realization of forestland scale management may be preferred to cooperation because of double-side weakening of forestland transfer among households. Share cooperation,union operation and other cooperative modes need the policy support for forestland scale management.
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    Carbon effect of rural land consolidation and its policy response
    FEI Luocheng, WU Cifang, CHENG Jiumiao
    2017, 39 (11):  2073-2082.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.06
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    In the new era,China is strengthening the construction of ecological civilization to realize the goal of “carbon sequestration and emission reduction”. It is important to promote ecological environmental protection in large-scale rural land consolidation,and take the carbon effect as a great concern. According to the framework of the implementation of rural land consolidation,we,from a theoretical perspective,analyzed the carbon effect in terms of land use structure,engineering measures,and cropland management caused by the project. Subsequently,the comparative analysis method was used to discuss the causes of carbon effect of rural land consolidation. Finally,according to the fact that the carbon effect exists in the rural land regulation,we propose relevant policies for the project of rural land consolidation in initiation stage,construction stage and maintenance stage. According to the research,we look forward to promote rural land consolidation to a higher stage. Research shows that:(1)the carbon effects of rural land consolidation is featured by complexity,diversity and dynamics,instead of by a linear relationship of increasing or decreasing carbon storage. We need to consider land use change,construction quantity and construction type,final farmland management measures,etc. in the project-covered area;(2)the priority policy needs to be formulated to realize the leading goal of “the maximum increase or minimum decrease in carbon pools” in initiation stage,construction stage and final management and maintenance stage. Then the carbon sequestration function of rural land consolidation project may be enhanced;(3)management measures related to carbon effects should focus on internal needs of the local governments and the grassroots,as well as factors such as socio-economic status of a region. Accordingly,the policy guidance of carbon effect in rural land consolidation should be promoted gradually and orderly,to avoid the trend from “economic supremacy" to "ecological fundamentalism".
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    Analysis on the choice of livelihood strategies of peasant households who rent out farmland and influencing factors:an micro-empirical study of the contiguous destitute areas of Liupan Mountains
    CAI Jie, MA Hongyu, XIA Xianli
    2017, 39 (11):  2083-2093.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.07
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    Investigating the choice of livelihood strategies has great significance for improving the livelihood of peasant households who rent out farmland. This paper makes use of 428 field survey data from peasant households who rent out farmland. The K-means clustering method was used to classify the livelihood strategies of the sample farmers,and based on a sustainable livelihood approach framework,the status quo of livelihood capital for peasant households who rent out farmland was calculated. The Multinomial Logit regression model was used to explore the relationship between livelihood capitals and livelihood strategies. The results showed that:firstly,for the five types of livelihood capital,most peasant households who rent out farmland process a large amount of human and social capital,whereas there is a smaller impact on livelihood strategies because of natural and physical capital,which have respective indexes of 0.084 and 0.063. Human capital is the main driving force for farmers to help maintain family income growth and promote livelihood model innovation. Social capital also helps farmers deal with risks and reduce vulnerability. Secondly,livelihood strategies are divided into three types,namely,agriculture oriented,part-time oriented and labor oriented. Thirdly,increasing the size of the labor force and the amount of non-formal channel loans,peasant households who rent out farmland make the best choice of selecting the labor oriented livelihood strategy. However,when peasant households who rent out farmland have a high proportion of the labor force and are able to receive free assistance,they tend to choose the agriculture oriented strategy. We also find that when the family members are healthier,there is a higher probability for selecting the part-time oriented strategy. Further,the younger the head of the household,the more likely it is that peasant households who rent out farmland will choose the "part-time" livelihood strategy.
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    Influence of the farmland transfer institution on farmers’ behaviors of cultivated land quality protection:an empirical study of the fields in Hunan Province
    LONG Yun, REN Li
    2017, 39 (11):  2094-2103.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.08
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    Farmers' cultivated quality protection behavior mainly contains the soil fertility improvement behaviors and the weak cultivated land reformation behaviors. These behaviors will help to improve the quality of cultivated land. The farmland transfer institution is one of the most important rural land property system innovations in China,which plays an important role in the quality of cultivated land. From the perspective of cultivated land protection,studies on the relationship between the two behaviors will be important for the construction of farmland transfer institution system. The article examines how the farmland transfer institution exactly affects the farmers' behaviors of cultivated land quality protection,the performance effects,the influence paths and the generative mechanism. At the same time,the Logit model and the Tobit model are established to verify these theories by using survey data covering 13 prefecture-level cities in Hunan Province. The result shows that in the initial construction stage of farmland transfer market,farmers will exhibit less quality protection behaviors in the transferred cultivated land,but with the development of the transferred land market,the farmers will improve their cultivated land quality protection behaviors. The result also reveals that the family characteristic variables(such as the number of family members)and land characteristic variables (such as the fragmentation)have a certain influence on the behavior of cultivated land quality protection. In addition,the government’s subsidies have a significant positive effect on land protection. Evidence from this study suggests that we should enhance the construction of farmland transfer system and the process of market construction actively,subsidize or reward the farmers’ behavior of cultivated land quality protection,and improve the punishment system of the cultivated land quality protection.
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    Spatio-temporal variation of agricultural thermal resources at different critical temperatures in China's temperate zone
    ZHANG Xuting, PAN Xuebiao, XU Lin, WEI Pei, HU Qi, YIN Ziwei, SHAO Changxiu
    2017, 39 (11):  2104-2115.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.09
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    Agricultural production is facing serious risks under global warming. The spatio-temporal variation of agricultural thermal resources is of great significance to examine agricultural ecological environment,crop pattern and cropping system. In this study,the data,including daily mean temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature,are obtained from 840 meteorological stations during 1960—2015 in China’s temperate zone within a range of 200km. We analyzed spatio-temporal variation of agricultural thermal resources and changes in planting boundaries of double cropping regions,as well as winter wheat and spring maize. In addition,we,with the aid of ANUSPLIN interpolation software,used a deviation method to calculate start date,end date,the number of duration days,and accumulated temperature passing stably different critical temperatures (0℃,5℃,10℃,15℃ and 20℃). ANUSPLIN interpolation software was used in local statistical modeling of smooth thin plate spline function,considering longitude,latitude and altitude. Compared with the Inverse Distance Weight method and the Ordinary Kriging method,ANUSPLIN interpolation method was more suitable in the research on time series of meteorological data. Results show that it became the trend that start dates were advanced,end dates delayed,the number of duration days and accumulated temperature increased in China’s temperate zone,and the greatest change was observed in areas with ≥15℃ thermal resources;start dates at different critical temperatures delayed from south to north,end dates were advanced,and the number of duration days and accumulated temperature decreased. The number of duration days,as well as accumulated temperature anomalies had a shift from negative value to positive value,and there were significant differences between 1960s—1980s and 2000s—2015;a rising trend was found in high value areas of thermal resources in middle and warm temperate zones,while a decreasing trend was in low value areas in cold temperate zone. Compared with period I (1960—1989),planting boundaries of double cropping regions,together with winter wheat and spring maize,tended to expand northward at period II (1990—2015) to a certain degree.
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    Development of phenological models for simulating past flowering phenology of typical ornamental plants in China
    ZHONG Shuying, GE Quansheng, DAI Junhu, WANG Huanjiong
    2017, 39 (11):  2116-2129.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.10
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    Developing flowering phenological models is conducive to the accurate simulation of flowering periods of ornamental plants and could provide basis for seasonal flowering tourism events. We investigated four widespread ornamental plants with high aesthetic value,namely,Amygdalus persica,Armeniaca vulgaris,Cercis chinensis and Syringa oblate. Using the first flowering date (FFD)and end of flowering date (EFD)data of these species and corresponding meteorological data at 42 sites,we developed and validated the spatiotemporal model of FFD and EFD and reconstructed data series of FFD,EFD and flowering duration (FD)of the four species over their distribution area from 1962 to 2013. At last,we analyzed spatiotemporal patterns of mean phenophases and phenological changes. The results showed that the spatiotemporal model was able to simulate the flowering phenology accurately on large spatial and temporal scales with root-mean-square-error of about 4–6 days. The simulated mean FFD,EFD and FD followed certain geographical gradients. Latitude was the major factor influencing flowering phenology. The FFD and EFD were delayed by 1.23–4.46 days and the FD was extended by 0.07–1.47 days per degree increase of latitude. Over the past 50 years,the mean FFD and EFD of all species became earlier with a rate of 0.95–1.61 days decade-1. The advance of S. oblate FFD and EFD exhibited no obvious spatial pattern,while the changes of FFD and EFD for the other three species showed a noticeable spatial variation with clearer advance in the north than in the south. The FD of S. oblate extended by 0.20 days decade-1,while the other three species showed very weak trends of -0.01–0.07 days decade-1. The changes of FD showed strong spatial heterogeneity. These results provided a scientific basis for simulating flowering phenology of typical ornamental plants and assessing their phenological responses to climate change.
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    Spatio-temporal analysis of drought vulnerability on the Loess Plateau of China at town level
    SHI Yuzhong, LI Wenlong, LU Daming, WANG Ziqiao, YANG Xinjun
    2017, 39 (11):  2130-2140.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.11
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    Drought vulnerability assessment plays an important role in studies on mitigation and adaptation to combat drought. The assessment on the drought vulnerability of the rural areas at town level provides a new viewpoint of human-environment system sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern China. In view of drought vulnerability assessment,we constructed an indicator system in three dimensions including exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity,by adopting the comprehensive evaluation framework of drought vulnerability. We selected Yuzhong County,one of typical counties on the Loess Plateau,as the study area,and applied entropy evaluation method,drought vulnerability index,and the local spatial autocorrelation index to calculate indicator weights,the drought vulnerability index,and the spatial agglomeration respectively,based on statistical,meteorological and remote sensing data from 2002 to 2015 as model input. The main results include:(1)The drought vulnerability index varies greatly,with a clear rise or fall trend periodically from 2002 to 2015; (2)The number of towns with different drought vulnerability degrees ranging from high to low is middle,high,and low,and the number of towns with high drought vulnerability degree significantly increases;(3)The influential factors on drought vulnerability from high to low are annual precipitation,slope,annual mean air temperatures,drought area,net income of farmers,population density,and the proportion of agricultural population to total population,among which the annual precipitation is the main driver influencing the drought vulnerability; (4)In terms of spatial pattern of drought vulnerability,the hot spots are distributed in the south and north of Yuzhong County,while the cold spots are found in the central part of the county,indicating that there exists an obvious geographical agglomeration,and several towns in hot spot areas tend to be stable.
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    Moisture characteristics analysis of different weather backgrounds in Plum Flood Season in Jiangsu
    LIU Mei, WANG Lei, CHEN Shengjie, WU Haiying
    2017, 39 (11):  2141-2152.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.12
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    By using June and July daily ERA reanalysis data (0.75°×0.75°)from 2010 to 2014,observation data of rainfall at each station and precipitable water vapor (PWV)data from GPS monitoring in Jiangsu from 2010 to 2015,we examine the vapor characteristics in different weather backgrounds of flood seasons by contrastive analysis methods. Results show that vapor characteristic quantities have different functions in different weather backgrounds. Relative humidity is related to rainfall. Specific humidity and PWV can be used to determine the amount of precipitation. The judgement indexes of different rainfall levels correspond to specific humidity and PWV value given in the paper. The average amount of PWV is about 60mm when the storm rain is observed in Plum Flood Season. The value is 10mm higher than that of weak precipitation. In addition,the average amount of PWV is 30-33mm for no-rain weather. Spatial distribution of rainstorm PWV presents obvious difference in different parts of Jiangsu. Heavy rain area is found in the north of Jiangsu when PWV value is high throughout the province. The area with high PWV value is the heavy rain region when PWV value is high only in the south of Jiangsu. The rainstorm area corresponds to the area with high PWV value. Heavy rain is observed in the overlay region of high relative humidity and high moisture. The distribution type of humidity and vapor content in Jiang-Huai region in the process of heavy rain is different in the above two regions. On this basis,the structure diagrams of situation and vapor during storm rain in different parts of Jiangsu are compiled.
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    Spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation from 1961 to 2015 in the eastern inland river basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau
    LI Wei, DUAN Limin, LIU Tingxi, Geriletu, GAO Ruizhong, Buren Scharaw, YU Changxiang
    2017, 39 (11):  2153-2165.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.13
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    Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of extreme precipitation is of important significance for the relevant studies on hydrological ecology in a basin. In this paper,we use the grid data of precipitation (with a resolution of 0.5°×0.5°)in the eastern part of inland river basin of the Inner Mongolian Plateau from 1961 to 2015 as the basis of study and adopt the methods of climatic diagnosis (e.g.,M-K method,principal component analysis,and correlation analysis)to examine the spatial and temporal variations of six extreme precipitation indexes. Moreover,we study the response of extreme precipitation events to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)events. The results indicate that in recent 55 years,the inter-annual variation trend of extreme precipitation indexes for the study area is generally dominated by declination,except for the maximum precipitation over 5 days (RX5DAY)and the heavy precipitation (R95P). In particular,the region with decreasing consecutive dry days (CDD)accounts for 91% of the entire basin,6.7% of which is showing a significant downward trend. Except CDD,all the extreme indexes of the study area exhibit a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the east and low in the west",and the average SDII ranges from 3.8 to 5.3mm/d,with relatively small spatial differences. To some extent,CDD and R95P can be used to characterize the drought events and the heavy rainfall events,respectively,and they both have strong correlations (at a significance level of α=0.1)with the other indices that belong to the same category of extreme event. Moreover,more droughts may be observed in El Nino years,while the flood disasters may occur more frequently in La Nina years.
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    The estimate of sea ice resources in the Bohai Sea based on MODIS data
    YAN Yu, XU Li, XU Yingjun, LI Qian, TAO Jun, GU Wei
    2017, 39 (11):  2166-2175.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.14
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    To investigate sea ice resources in the Bohai Sea,we used MODIS satellite remote sensing data to examine the spatio-temporal variations of sea ice volume. Sea ice area was ex-tracted by using the ENVI feature extraction method,the sea ice thickness was estimated based on the exponential albedo model,and then sea ice volume was calculated. In addition,the spatio-temporal characteristics of sea ice volume were analyzed with the aid of ArcGIS. The results show that the sea ice formed and expanded from north (Liaodong Bay)to south (Laizhou Bay),and the sea ice coverage varied from 1.96% to 30.20% in the whole Bohai Sea. The values of estimated sea ice thickness were reliable,which was in accordance with the predictions based on Lebedev and Zubov empirical models,and the average sea ice thickness ranged from 5.69 to 23.75cm. The sea ice volume varied greatly during the 2012/13 winter,ranging from 0.84×108 to 50.83×108m3. The sea ice volume was small in December and March,while it was large in January and February,especially in mid-January,there appeared a peak of sea ice volume. The spatial distribution of sea ice resources in the Bohai Sea was also uneven,with the descending order of Liaodong Bay> Bohai Bay > Central Zone of the Bohai Sea > Laizhou Bay. The largest sea ice volume was found in Liaodong Bay(accounting for ~76.72% of the entire Bohai Sea). The Liaodong Bay was the main contributor to the sea ice resources of the whole sea area. In addition,we explored the relationship between the sea ice distribution and the real-time meteorological data. The sea ice volume was significantly affected by the air temperature and a 2-day lag effect was found,namely,the variations of sea ice volume may lag behind a weather event for approximately 2 days for the study period.
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    Evaluation on the sustainable utilization potential of marine medicinal bioresources in China based on Entropy-AHP
    DAI Guilin, LIN Chunyu, FU Xiumei, WANG Na, LI Yusen
    2017, 39 (11):  2176-2185.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.15
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    Resource is the material basis for industrial development. This study focuses on quantitative calculation and rank for marine medicinal bioresources in sustainable utilization potential in coastal provincial-level areas of China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan),and then evaluates the development potential of regional marine biopharmaceutical industry,aiming to provide references for decision making on optimizing the allocation of resources and layouts industries reasonably. We select 20 impact factors from three aspects:natural conditions,economic and technological conditions,and social conditions. Then,we calculate weight values of 20 factors obtained through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)and Entropy method,and further establish a system for evaluating sustainable utilization potential of marine medicinal bio-resources. It is found that the top five weight values of 20 factors are policy support strength,marine biopharmaceutical market radiation,environmental diversity,the amount of supply of marine medicinal bio-resources,and the level of research and development of medicinal bio-resources,which are the main factors influencing sustainable utilization potential of marine medicinal bioresources. The above evaluation system is applied to 11 provincial-level areas in coastal,China. Results show that Guangdong and Zhejiang are in the first grade. Hainan,Shandong,Fujian,Jiangsu,Guangxi,and Shanghai are in the second grade. Liaoning,Hebei and Tianjin are in the third grade. Finally,considering the contribution degree of the main influencing factors,we propose suggestions for these provincial-level areas which can promote the development marine biopharmaceutical industries,and enhance sustainable utilization potential of marine medicinal bio-resources.
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    Spatial distribution of population specialization based on multi-source data:a case study of Zhangjiakou City
    HUANG An, XU Yueqing, SUN Piling, LIU Chao, ZHENG Weiran
    2017, 39 (11):  2186-2196.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.16
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    The study of population can reveal the spatial information behind the demographic data,and helps to provide data support for the research on regional sustainable development. With the aid of technology of GIS and RS,we selected six factors that affect the distribution of population:Human Settlements Index(HSI),Relief Degree of Land Surface (RDLS),and the area ratio of construction land,cultivated land,water area,and garden in a regular grid. We also obtained the contribution coefficient IFI value of population spatial distribution through principal component analysis model,and allocated the population of Zhangjiakou City to a 1km×1km grid,which obeys the principles that the statistical population of the township is assumed by the land space of the whole area,and the administrative area is taken as a model control unit to achieve the goal of specialization of population. The results showed that the population density obtained in this study conformed to the actual situation of the city. There are changes over various factors influencing the spatial distribution tendency,and there is a significant relationship between result and HSI and construction land,which was closely related to the other factors. High value population area mainly concentrated in the area includes Qiaoxi, Qiaodong and Xuanhua districts, as well as downtown center. The specific area is distributed in the area of HSI high value,low RDLS and high value of construction land ratio area. Based on the township level scale as the control unit to forecast the spatial population, the accuracy of the result is better than that of the county level as control unit, which can provide data support for multi-scale comprehensive research.
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    Simulation of heat island based on data assimilation and CA model in Baotou City
    HUANG Yuan, YUE Depeng, YANG Di, YU Qiang, ZHANG Qibin, MA Huan
    2017, 39 (11):  2197-2207.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.17
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    The numerical simulation is an important component of urban heat island. A study of numerical simulation has been conducted,with the aim to improve predicted accuracy of urban heat island. Baotou,the largest industrial city in Inner Mongolia,was taken as the study area. Remote sensing images of Landsat 5 in 1996,2001,2006 and 2011,as well as the remote sensing images of Landsat 8 in 2016 were used as the basic data. The IB algorithm was used to retrieve the land surface temperature initially. Then three common algorithms of data assimilation combined with CA model were used to simulate the urban heat island in this city. Instead of the traditional CA-Markov model,the optimal algorithm was selected to simulate the urban heat island in Baotou in 2020. Results show that using algorithm of data assimilation can improve the accuracy of CA model. The EnSRF-CA model is better than the other models in simulation of heat island in Baotou and its accuracy could reach 88.35%. According to the prediction of heat island,the overall warm-ing effect of urban area in Baotou will still be obvious in 2020. A large area of strong green island will be transferred to the green island,and the area of strong heat island will increase by 55.33km2. The decrease of water flow in the Yellow River basin has reduced the cooling effect of heat island. To alleviate the heat island effect,the protection of Nanhai wetland ecosystem should be strengthened and the urban green area should be increased in the future.
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