Table of Content

    20 June 2017, Volume 39 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Orginal Article
    Land use patterns of the Xiongan New Area and comparison among potential choices of start zone
    Luguang JIANG, Peiyi LV, Zhiming FENG, Ye LIU
    2017, 39 (6):  991-998.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.01
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    China announced plans on 1 April 2017 to create the Xiongan New Area,a new economic zone about 110km southwest of Beijing. The new area covers the counties of Xiongxian,Rongcheng and Anxin in Hebei province,and is home to Baiyangdian,a major wetland in northern China. This is a new area of national significance. It will cover around 100km2 initially (termed as the start zone)and will be expanded to 200km2 in the mid-term and 2000km2 in the long term. It is important to reveal and analyze the land use pattern for planning and development. Based on remote sensing interpretation from Landsat OLI images,current land use features,potential of built-up land saving and intensive use,and spatial variation of arable land quality were analyzed. Three potential choices for the start zone are listed and compared. The results indicate that the proportion of arable land,built-up land and wetland are around 60%,20% and 10% respectively. The potential for rural built-up land savings and intensive use is large. The arable land quality and use intensity in Rongcheng and Anxin counties are much better than that of Xiongxian. Among three potential choices, the medium plot is the best suitable start zone. Policy recommendations on built-up land expansion,farmland saving and flood risk mitigation for the Xiongan New Area are discussed.

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    Characterization and diagnosis of rural decline in poor mountainous areas
    Yixiao RAN, Fengrong ZHANG, Bailin ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Chao LI, Zhen XIE
    2017, 39 (6):  999-1012.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.02
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    Few natural resources,a low population capacity,inconvenient traffic and poor public services are characteristics of poor mountainous areas. These areas are centrifugal areas of population and industry that have fragile ecologies. Focusing on seven typical villages in Youyang County in Chongqing City,we analyzed the micro-scale evolution of rural land use to explore rural decline in poor mountainous areas based on participatory rural appraisal methods and remote sensing imagery interpretation. We found that the degree of rural decline in poor mountainous is severe. Along with rural labor flowing into cities and towns and an increasing number of aging people,rural construction land is inefficient,and the diversity of the rural land use changed from simple to richness to simple again. Cultivated land size became smaller,gathered and less fragmented. Meanwhile,the vegetation rate increased due to conversion between cultivated land and woodland. Many reasons,including a lack of agricultural livelihood resources,difficulty in realizing agricultural mechanization,decentralization and the comparative benefits of urban and rural areas were responsible for the decline in rural mountainous areas. A diagnosis index system of rural decline,including population loss rate,rural residential land shrinking rate and reduction in cultivated area was established. This showed that rural decline mainly occurred in remote mountainous villages. We suggest that rural land consolidation and poverty alleviation should obey the object law,making a rural plan scientific. Self-repair of ecosystems should be emphasized in ecological restoration. Cultivated land should be transferred selectively.

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    Evaluation of construction land intensive use and obstacle control based on Five-Variables Collaboration Model
    Yanbo QU, Yong ZHANG, Huiyan LI, Yu GAO
    2017, 39 (6):  1013-1025.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.03
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    Construction land intensive use is a dynamic process of gradual development. The deep understanding of its procedural connotation and the relationship between variables has important significance to the research methods used in construction land intensive use evaluation. We define the meaning of construction land intensive use based on the five-variables collaboration model,construct an evaluation index system of construction land intensive use materialized in such five aspects (total scale,incremental effect,quality elasticity,stock potential and flux efficiency;the TIQSF indicator system)and include multivariate weighted summation,polygon areas and obstacle factor diagnosis. Through actual attests and analyses of 17 cities in Shandong we propose the five-variables collaborative controlling method and countermeasures of regional construction land intensive use. We found that the T,I,Q,S and F scores showed obvious diversity and the variable coefficients were 19.81%,18.23%,21.13%,20.84% and 16.78%; the spatial distribution also had certain local similarity. The comprehensive scores were 2.05~7.77,the coordination of T,I,Q,S and F scores gradually improved from low to high,but the concentrated distribution phenomenon was obvious. The dominant obstacle factors in different regions were significant: T1,T2,I1 and I2 showed single factor strong effects;Q1,Q2,S1,S2,F1 and F3 showed double factor equilibrium effects. Effective control of the total and incremental scale of construction land was key to enhancing the level of construction land intensive use in Shandong. Shandong should reduce the increment of construction land in annual planning to control the scale of construction land plan along paths,including reducing the quantity,heightening the effect and improving quality.

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    Efficiency evaluation of industrial parks land in Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations based on VRS-DEA Model and Malmquist Productivity Index
    Jiangang SHI, Tianheng XU
    2017, 39 (6):  1026-1036.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.04
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    Given insufficient efficiency areas of industrial park land in China,we selected 16 state-level industrial parks in the Yangtze River delta urban agglomeration. Based on the input and output unit land area index,VRS-DEA modeling and the Malmquist index,we decompose the dynamic evaluation of land use efficiency,and analyze the input and output factors of improving potential. We found that from 2010-2014,the Yangtze River delta urban agglomerations industrial park comprehensive efficiency of land use was an average of 0.600. Only two industrial parks are efficient,and the efficiency differences between land use regions is obvious. In the view of changes in efficiency decomposition,changes in the scale efficiency of land use are the main cause resulting in the evolution of technical efficiency. From a dynamic time series,the Malmquist productivity index was driven by technical efficiency change and grew over the five years. Weakness in technical improvements is the core element of land use efficiency. Through the analysis of land use non-DEA efficient urban spaces,industrial parks have common output redundancy including tax revenues and industrial production. While maintaining investment scale effectiveness,improving the technical efficiency of industry,investment promotion and the tax system is a realistic path to improve land use efficiency of industrial parks in Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations.

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    A review of research on energy geopolitics in China
    Yebing FANG, Limao WANG, Qiushi QU, Yan YANG, Chufu MOU
    2017, 39 (6):  1037-1047.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.05
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    In the context of changing world energy,geopolitics and construction of Belt and Road Initiatives (B&R),energy geopolitics has been of increasingly interest academically. In order to explore the current situation and development of energy geopolitics,we discuss research progress for China’s energy geopolitics based on analysis of literature published in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI)since 1998. There are three stages of China energy geopolitics research and we analyzed major research content according to pattern,mechanism and effect. We found that China has made progress in several aspects of the evolution of pattern,driving mechanism,subject and object,energy security and geo-strategy,competition and cooperation of energy. However,there is still insufficient work on theory,research logic systems,research perspective,and quantitative analysis of the interactions between energy,geographical factors and geopolitics. Such research perspectives are also limited by geopolitical factors,comprehensive research,energy economy,energy security and the scale of research. In view of this,we propose a research framework for energy geopolitics. After reviewing research progress of energy geopolitics at home,according to the deficiency in numerous studies,we suggest that five research directions should be further developed:pay more attention to basic theory and methods of energy geopolitics;build big data of China energy geopolitics and enhance the expression of modeling and visualization;focus on hotspots as networks,geopolitical environments,new energy,oil currency and comprehensive analysis of various energy sources;emphasize medium-micro spatial scales of energy geopolitical research under the background of the B&R;and highlight global energy governance with participation from China.

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    Early classification warning for regional energy security exogenous sources based on FI-GA-NN Model
    Jian HU, Jinhua SUN
    2017, 39 (6):  1048-1058.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.06
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    In order to solve the problem of frequent occurrence of energy security incidents in China,we took the regional energy security exogenous source as focal research to develop effective early warning. We defined the concept of regional energy security exogenous source. From an external point of view we divided the root cause of regional energy events into three kinds of exogenous sources using analysis of typical regional energy security incidents,including energy price fluctuations,energy policy intervention and external environmental changes. Then,the attribute set and data set of regional energy security exogenous sources are constructed by extracting different cases. At the premise of considering exogenous source characteristics,such as suddenness nonlinear and complex,we designed a classification early warning model,known as the FI-GA-NN model,an exogenous source warning model with fuzzy integral (FI),genetic algorithm (GA)and neural network (NN). In this model,we have first of all designed the fuzzy integral method to make an exploration of the sample grade of exogenous source. Secondly,we adopted BP neural network methods as the early warning method. At the same time,a genetic algorithm was used to optimize the weights of BP neural network to improve the accuracy of the model. To verify the validity of the FI-GA-NN model,we have selected 30 typical cases of energy security exogenous source to make the classification early warning report during the years from 1999 to 2015. The training results showed that the FI-GA-NN model had fast convergence speed. The model error was less than the expected value when the model was trained to the 717th step. After approximately 60 generations of searching, the actual output value of the model training was closer to the expected output value. The testing results show that the classification warning accuracy rate of FI- GA- NN was higher. The classification early warning results of the regional energy security exogenous source prove to be well in agreement with actual conditions. Therefore, it is reasonable and effective to apply the FI- GA- NN model to the monitoring the regional energy security situations.

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    Textual and quantitative research on Chinese urban mining policies from 1987 to 2015
    Hailin YAO, Yanfang XIANG, Chang WANG, Hongjun GENG
    2017, 39 (6):  1059-1070.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.07
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    China's developing urban mining industry can effectively resolve the dual constraints of resources and the environment by turning municipal waste into wealth. As an important and critical area to realize the circular economy,the urban mining industry needs a supportive policy environment; industrial policy has remarkable effects in this industry according to experiences from developed countries. Since the mid-1980s,China has made great efforts to encourage this industry and formulated a series of industrial policies to promote the development of relevant industries in China. In order to probe the features of China's urban mining policies,the systemic collection of urban mining policy documents issued by the Central Government,related departments and ministries from 1987 to 2015 was undertaken. We then looked at content quantitative and bibliometric analysis towards 77 policy texts from four dimensions (promulgation time,policy-making agencies,policy instruments and policy objects). We found the general situation and development process of China's urban mining policies and urgent issues. First,from the dimension of promulgation time,these policies display a sustained growth with well-characterized stages,and their continuity and stability have been improved. Second,regarding the dimension of policy-making agencies,the policy efficacy has so far been limited and a general director and coordinating department remains absent. Third,according to the dimension of policy instruments,they are mainly regulative,yet economic incentives and social policies are insufficient. Fourth,as for the dimension of policy objects,the design of a policy system lacks coordination of the product life cycle. We propose a series of related policy suggestions on the above issues.

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    Dynamic relations among oil production and trade and economic growth in oil producing countries in the Belt and Road
    Hanxiao KONG, Lei SHEN, Shuai ZHONG
    2017, 39 (6):  1071-1083.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.08
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    With the advance of the Belt and Road,trade contact between countries along the line and China has become increasingly closed. Oil resources are a crucial strategy energy is particularly important in the regional cooperation. Based on the principle of mutual benefit,in order to reveal action mechanism among economic growth and oil supply and demand,we collected Gross Domestic Product data,oil production data and oil trade data from the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2015 and applied the granger causality test,vector autoregressive modeling and impulse response to look at relationships between economic growth,oil production and oil trade. The results show that there are three kinds of dynamic relationships: circular causality chain,where a recurrent changing relationship is found from three variables;reciprocal causation,where one or two alternate changing relationships are found from two of three variables;and one-way causation,where only one successive changing relationship is found from two of three variables. Combined with the Chinese situation and the Impulse Response Function,we propose a differentiation trade cooperation strategy based on oil trade cooperation and talent technology output in order to contribute to strengthen trade cooperation between Chinese and oil producing countries in the Belt and Road. Strengthening the Economic Corridor of Central Asia and West Asia and the New Asia Europe Economic Corridor should be done via a priority cooperation strategy. This will help relieve pressure on China’s oil supply and promote the Belt and Road Initiative.

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    Spatio-temporal change characteristics and circulation causes of extreme precipitation in Fujian Province
    Xiangyu GUO, Zhengfang WU, Haibo DU, Lei WANG, Mangen YANG, Zhibiao CHEN
    2017, 39 (6):  1084-1098.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.09
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    Extreme precipitation is an important aspect of climate change. Fujian Province is often affected by extreme precipitation events such as typhoons and severe convective weather and it is critical to research changes in extreme precipitation events in Fujian with respect to global warming. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal change in extreme precipitation in Fujian and circulation causes using trend analysis,Mann-Kendall abrupt change analysis,wavelet analysis,Point-Measured methods and correlational analysis. We used daily precipitation of 22 meteorological observation stations in Fujian from 1961 to 2013. We found that extreme precipitation increased. The SDII,R50mm and CWD indices experienced obvious abrupt changes around 1994,1995 and 1998,respectively. The period of oscillation of each extreme precipitation index was similar,including 2~3 years,6~8 years short-cycle and 10~12 years middle-cycle at large. Extreme precipitation had obvious spatial differences. PRCPTOT revealed a decreasing trend from the eastern coast to western inland. Extreme precipitation was influenced by the location of land and sea,terrain and latitude. Circulation seasonal variation in the number of Fujian Province Typhoons,and the intensity and location of the Subtropical High affected extreme precipitation in Fujian. There was a negative low value center in the geopotential height difference of 850hPa and the 1000hPa over Fujian,which promoted the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. These findings provide a scientific reference for further our understanding and predicting trends in extreme climate in the future and estimates and decision-making of agro-meteorological hazard influence in Fujian.

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    Land use change and impact on groundwater storage in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
    Ming LEI, Xiangbin KONG, Xueliang ZHANG, Fangfang WU
    2017, 39 (6):  1099-1116.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.10
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    Impacts of land use on hydrologic processes and environmental problems caused by land use are hot research topics in global. Facing water shortages in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,a method of grid water balance principle is presented here based on a 1km grid geographic information database. The grid water balance model was applied to simulate groundwater storage of 310 863 grids in 1990 and 2010. The result of grid water balance effectively simulated the groundwater storage of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in 1990 and 2010. The reduction of groundwater storage from 1990 to 2010 has a close link with land use change and the water consumption intensity of land. The trend of land use change is that construction land occupies cultivated land and cultivated land occupies ecological land in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1990 and 2010. The rank for water consumption strength of land use grid is:Construction land > Cultivated land > Grassland and Unused land. Low water consumption strength land type turns to high water consumption rate land type in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,which means less groundwater storage in 20 years. Grid construction land water consumption increased by 1.07 million m3/km2 in 2010 from 1.66 million m3/km2 in 1990,grid cultivated land water consumption changed from 519 thousand m3/km2 in 1990 to 575 thousand m3/km2 in 2010. The water consumption rate of construction land and cultivated land increased consecutively. The rule of land use change is important for Huang-Huai-Hai Plain ground water decline.

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    The relationship analysis between Chinese industrial water use and economic growth based on the Kuznets Curve
    Yue ZHANG, Bolin PAN, Jinbin LI, Alun GU
    2017, 39 (6):  1117-1126.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.11
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    Global inequity and unbalanced water resources have been critical issues for many years. Chinese water resources per capita are only 1/4 of the global average. As the Chinese economy grows rapidly,the demands for Chinese industrial water are increasing. It is therefore important to balance the relationship between economic growth and industrial water use. To make industrial water use decisions economically,we divided China into eight economic areas and based on a reduced form model verified the industrial Kuznets Curve in different areas. We used water use per capita and GDP per capita of the eight economic areas from 2002 to 2014 and applied unit root tests and co-integration tests and curve fitting. The result indicates that the trend in Chinese industrial water use fits the Kuznets Curve,and that industrial water use per capita and GDP per capita show an inverted U type relationship. The different economic areas have different turning points due to different levels of technological development and industrial structure. A study of industrial water use trends has much meaning for co-integrating economic development and industrial water use. The government should try to achieve an earlier turning point in the Kuznets Curve by optimizing industrial structure,increasing water-use efficiency and developing advanced technologies.

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    The impact of FDD rotation mode and irrigation methods on rice irrigation water efficiency in Southwestern China
    Weiyong YU, Yanbin QI, Feng WEI, Xin DENG
    2017, 39 (6):  1127-1136.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.12
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    Water is the main bottleneck to agricultural production safety and stable income in China and improving irrigation efficiency is a fundamental requirement of water-saving society construction. Measuring the efficiency of the FDD rotation mode and irrigation informs the reasonable arrangement of planting structure,choice of water savings and improvements in irrigation policy. Here,based on survey data of rice planting in southwest China and employing a DEA-Tobit model we measured and analyzed farmers’ irrigation efficiency,explored the FDD rotation mode and irrigation method,and solved endogenous problems. The results show that the whole average irrigation efficiency of rice is 0.14,the average scale efficiency is 0.55,the average technical efficiency is 0.27,and the water resource utilization improvement space is larger. The rotation crop economic benefits pattern is negatively correlated with rice irrigation efficiency and the water-saving effect of crop rotation is positively related to these. The degree of water resource endowment can overvalue the influence coefficient of FDD rotation on rice irrigation efficiency by 0.10%,and undervalue the influence coefficient of irrigation method on rice irrigation efficiency by 2.04%. We put forward several suggestions for adjusting and arranging “FDD Rotation Mode and Irrigation Methods” according to local conditions,emphasize large-scale planting and regional irrigation of plains, intensive and fine irrigation of mountain,and arranging irrigation water according to crop growth cycles.

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    Landscape visual quality assessment based on eye movement:college student eye-tracking experiments on tourism landscape pictures
    Suling GUO, Ningxi ZHAO, Jianxin ZHANG, Ting XUE, Peixue LIU, Shuai XU, Dandan XU
    2017, 39 (6):  1137-1147.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.13
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    Landscape visual quality assessment is the basis of rational planning,development,utilization and protection of tourism resources. Various assessment methods have their own advantages,but many deficiencies. Most existing evaluation methods are subjectively qualitative approaches. Here,we introduce eye-tracking analysis to landscape visual quality assessment using the rural tourism destination Hongcun as a case study. An eyetracker was used to record eye movement data while subjects looked at Hongcun landscape pictures. We combined SBE and SD to obtain the subjective evaluation of landscape visual quality,which were analyzed by correlation and regression analysis with eye movement index data. We found that subjects had different eye movement characteristics in four landscapes types,among which,there were significant differences in fixation frequency,average fixation duration and saccade frequency. The fixation points mainly focused on the main buildings,some prominent elements and the borders of landscape elements. The subjective evaluation of landscape visual quality was significantly correlated with fixation frequency,percentage of fixation duration, average fixation duration and percentage of saccade duration. The eye movement evaluation model of landscape visual quality was built. Visual quality values of four landscape types in Hongcun, settlement, ecology, agriculture and culture, calculated by the model, were 5.99, 5.98, 5.96 and 5.90. The model shows that a higher fixation frequency and a longer watching time(a lower percentage of fixation duration) produce a higher landscape visual quality assessment of tourism landscapes. Our method is a new tool to conduct landscape visual quality assessments.

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    Risk perception and risk reduction of domestic tourists impacted by haze pollution in Beijing
    Aiping ZHANG, Hu YU
    2017, 39 (6):  1148-1159.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.14
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    Haze pollution has worsened in China. This type of environmental pollution may have a great effect on tourism images and the entire tourism industry. This study aims to reveal the impacts of haze pollution on the mental activity and behavior of on-site tourists. Based on the theoretical guidance of ‘Perceived Risk Theory’,risk perception and specific risk reduction affected by risk perception were examined. Theoretical assumptions and a model were established and Structural Equation Model (SEM)techniques were used to verify the model. The relationship between risk perception and specific risk reduction of tourists was revealed. We found that haze pollution has obvious impacts on the risk perception of on-site tourists,and risk involves health risk,functional risk,psychological risk and cost risk. On-site tourists for Beijing have obvious perceptions of these four aspects of travel risk. As to the perception level of travel risk,health risk is the highest aspect,followed by functional risk,psychological risk and cost risk. After we established the initial model of the four aspects of travel risk and risk reduction activities,SEM techniques were used to reveal the relationship between risk perception and risk reduction. The results show that risk perception has a significant influence on risk reduction activities;the influence level of health risk is the highest,followed by functional risk and psychological risk. The effect of cost risk,which is important in tourism decision-making,is not significant. Group features of on-site tourists also have important effects on risk perception and risk reduction and tourism market segmentation divided by travel purpose has the most important effect.

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    Evaluation on leisure tourism in coastal wetlands in Liaoning Province based on travel cost interval analysis
    Baodi SUN, Lijuan CUI, Wei LI, Xiaoming KANG, Manyin ZHANG, Xu PAN, Yunmei PING
    2017, 39 (6):  1160-1170.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.15
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    Wetland leisure tourism refers to a series of recreational behaviors among residents,tourists and wetland landscape resources resulting in obvious economic,social and ecological benefits. Coastal wetlands have relatively unique functions in bird watching,ornamental plants,natural estuary geomorphology and environmental education,so leisure tourism is an important function of coastal wetlands. The Travel Costs Interval Analysis (TCIA)is a popular value evaluation method widely applied in the tourist destination (resources)of leisure tourism value evaluation. Here,we look at six typical coastal wetlands (Honghaitan Wetland in Panjin,Linghekou Wetland in Jinzhou,Banhaibao Wetland in Dalian,Yalvjiang estuary Wetland in Dandong,Longwan Wetland in Huludao,Xipaotai Wetland in Yingkou)and used TCIA to evaluate the unit area value of leisure tourism of every coastal wetland (travel cost,travel time cost and consumer surplus). We multiplied each city's coastal wetland area to calculate the total leisure tourism value of coastal wetlands in Liaoning. We found that the value of leisure tourism of coastal wetlands in Liaoning was 20.184 billion CNY,among which,the value leisure tourism of coastal wetlands in the city of Dalian was 8.570 billion CNY,accounting for 42.46% of the total tourism value of all coastal wetlands. Dalian was followed by Panjin (2.903 billion CNY),Huludao (2.749 billion CNY),Yingkou (2.548 billion CNY)and Dandong (2.094 billion CNY). The value in Jinzhou was the lowest,accounting for only 6.54% (1.320 billion CNY)of total tourism value. These results can be used as an important basis for decisions on coastal wetland tourism resource development and environmental protection in Liaoning Province.

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    Perception on the sub-health improvement of tourists by forest healthcare tourism
    Qunming ZHENG, Jia LIU, Yan ZHU, Linsheng ZHONG
    2017, 39 (6):  1171-1181.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.16
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    Sub-health is a state between healthiness and disease,and can deteriorate to disease if people ignore it. Forest healthcare tourism is a hot issue amongst academic circles and professionals that refers to providing recreational and healthcare activities for tourists. Making full use of forest resources to develop forest healthcare tourism can not only satisfy the needs of sightseeing and vacation but also remove the sub-healthy syndrome of urban residents. We selected vacation areas in Mount Jianfengling,Mount Daweishan and Mount Lushan as study areas,then we constructed a forest healthcare tourism experience scale and forest health perceived efficacy scale. We collected 311 questionnaires from July12th~13th,August 15th~17th and 22th~24th in 2014. Using data reliability analysis,exploratory factor analysis,confirmatory factor analysis,we found that the three major experiential elements of forest healthcare tourism are natural landscape,ecological environment and healthcare facilities. The three major health benefits are recovery of body,adjustment of psychological state and improving of social relationship. Using multi-group structural equation model fitting test, we found that healthy tourists have significant perceptions on “Ecological environment experience → Physical health recovery”、“Healthcare facilities experience → Interpersonal relationship improvement,sub-healthy tourists have significant perceptions on seven paths,“Natural landscape experience → Physical health recovery”,“Natural landscape experience → Psychological state Adjustment”,“Natural landscape experience improvement → Interpersonal relationship”,“Ecological environment experience → Physical health recovery”,“Ecological environment experience → Psychological state Adjustment”,“Ecological environment experience → Psychological state Adjustment”,“Ecological environment experience → Interpersonal relationship improvement”, “Healthcare facilities experience → Physical health recovery”, moderating effect was partly supported. Based on these,three management implications for forest healthcare tourism are discussed.

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    Impacts of marine industrial structure changes on marine economic growth for 11 coastal provinces in China
    Bo WANG, Limin HAN
    2017, 39 (6):  1182-1193.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.17
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    Changes in industrial structure influence the flow and distribution of factors,and the allocation efficiency of factors determines the quality and speed of marine economic growth. Based on the VES production function,we establish an estimation model considering marine industry structure as a threshold variable to study the impacts of marine industrial structural changes on marine economic growth,Which provides a reference for promoting the structural reform of China's marine supply side and improving the quality of marine economic growth. We found that marine industrial structure changes have differences on the influence of marine economic growth. The proportion of marine secondary industry in GOP over the threshold has a significant impact on the growth of the marine economy,which has a large ‘structural dividend’ to the development of the marine economy and promotes marine economic growth. The effect of the proportion of marine tertiary industry in GOP on marine economic growth is not significant. However,the high level of marine industrial structure has a negative effect on the growth of the marine economy and hinder the development of the marine economy. A traditional marine investment structure promotes growth of the marine economy in the early stage of marine economic development,but oversteps marine economic growth after crossing the threshold. Marine labor has a positive effect on marine economic growth. The dependence of marine economic growth on science and technology investment means that intellectual support rather than physical supply is needed.

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    Estimation of prime farmland ecological compensation criteria based on the development restrictive loss of farmers in Jiangxia District of Wuhan City
    Xin YANG, Jingjing ZHANG, Xin GAO, Yinying CAI, Anlu ZHANG
    2017, 39 (6):  1194-1201.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.18
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    In China,farmland performs fundamental economic,social and ecological functions. Farmland restriction laws and regulations have been applied in China to guarantee national food security and social stability. This shift caused serious economic and social welfare “wipeout” and “windfalls” to relevant stakeholders in farmland protection,leading to the degradation of farmland ecological systems,and threatening social fairness and environmental justice. Ever since improving the ecological civilization level was put forward by the 12th Five Year Plan on National Economical and Social Development,developed cities such as Chengdu in Sichuan province,Foshan in Guangdong province,Suzhou in Jiangsu province and Minhang in Shanghai,began to explore their own ways of implementing farmland compensation policy. How to construct a farmland ecological compensation system that can meet the practical needs of social development is of urgent need in China. Based on the nine restriction rules in the Regulations of Prime Farmland Protection and face-to-face questionnaire surveys,the expected utility function and factor revision methods were employed to estimate prime farmland ecological compensation criteria by taking Jiangxia (one distract in Wuhan)as an example. We found that the residents’ cognition degree for rules of the Regulations of Prime Farmland Protection require improvement. Despite the fact that farmland protection policies have been well advertised in China over the past 20 years,more than 64.48% of farmers have not awared the nine restrictions clearly;nearly half of the farmers are unfamiliar with specific restrictions. Farmers’ restrictive loss from obeying the prime farmland protection policies is 9116.47 CNY/hm2 by applying the expected utility function. Whether farmers have combined occupations and agricultural income level significantly impact on their restrictive loss amount. Farmland ecological compensation in Jiangxia is settled based on farmers’ prime farmland development restrictive loss,which is 9116.47 CNY/hm2.

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    Information spillover effects of crude oil price shocks on Chinese basic industries according to CARR modeling
    Mingyuan GUO, Na WANG
    2017, 39 (6):  1202-1211.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.19
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    At the beginning of the 21st century the crude oil price experienced huge fluctuations and China's crude oil consumption continues to rise. The major concern has shifted to the influence of international crude oil prices fluctuations on China's economic development. The basic industry is the material basis for the development of industry,especially heavy industry,and plays a decisive role in national economic development. China's six basic industrial developments are closely related to crude oil prices. It is necessary to study how crude oil prices affect China's basic industries. Using CARR modeling and CCF tests,we researched the information spillover effects of crude oil price shocks on China's six basic industries (electricity,metallurgy,machinery,fundamental chemicals,coal and petroleum and petrochemical) from January 1st, 2005 to July 31st, 2014. The empirical results show that:①The volatility of crude oil price has significant influences on China's six basic industries;②There are the bidirectional mean and variance spillover effects between Chinese electricity, metallurgy, machinery, fundamental chemicals industries and crude oil price;③There are the unidirectional mean and variance spillover effects running from crude oil prices to coal industry;④There are bidirectional variance information spillover effects and unidirectional mean information spillover effects running from crude oil price to petroleum & petrochemical industry;⑤The information spillover effect is not very stable, seen from the significant level of 10 lags. We conclude that China's basic industrial markets are significantly affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices. In order to compete for crude oil pricing rights and protect China's energy security,it is necessary to establish a Chinese crude oil futures market.

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    Sensitivity analyses of industrial economic output to weather variability in Beijing
    Jianfeng SUN, Ji WANG, Guimei HE, Zhibo CHEN, Jianxin WANG
    2017, 39 (6):  1212-1223.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.20
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    Based on 12 years(2002-2013)of economic data and historical weather observations,we analyzed the sensitivity of the industry economy to changes in meteorological factors. By improving an econometric model,Cobb-Douglas(C-D) production function,a quantitative causal relationship is established between meteorological factors and industry economy. Ridge regression modeling was employed to analyze meteorological factors and the industry economy of Beijing. Sensitivity ranking of Beijing economic industry was obtained,three among which are hypersensitive:construction industry,wholesale and retail trade,and financial industry. Agriculture is the least sensitive. The sensitivity ranking,from highest to lowest was:construction industry (0.499 5),wholesale and retail trade(0.417 6),financial industry(0.293 3),transportation,warehousing and postal services(0.280 6),industry(0.279 9),accommodation and catering industry(0.271 0),health and social security and welfare(0.269 1),cultural and sports and entertainment industry(0.260 7),and agriculture(0.253 7). Sensitivity analysis is helpful to the government of Beijing when conducting the industrial restructuring and optimization of resource patterns. This research indicates ridge regression is more in keeping with local economic development in Beijing.

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