Table of Content

    25 October 2016, Volume 38 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Growth in China's marine economy based on MF-VAR model
    YIN Kedong, JIN Xue, LI Xuemei, WANG Fengjiao
    2016, 38 (10):  1821-1831.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.01
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    Since the 21st century,the development of China's marine industry has ushered in a new era and the marine economy has become an important part of China's macro-economy. Formulation of national macroeconomic policy and the implementation of marine economic strategy all need to have a comprehensive grasp of the current economic growth situation. Given that monthly data and quarterly data for China's marine economic indicators are not published,annual low frequency marine economic data analysis in a short sample data is not accurate. Here,we constructed a MF-VAR model to measure China's marine growth and using real-time data from 2005 to 2013 optimised selection and parameter estimation for the MS-VAR model. We then compared the results of the benchmark model to explore the application of the frequency mixing data model to the marine economy. The result shows that MF-VAR modeling has relatively smaller error when applied to China's measurement of marine growth,and the fitting effect of the multivariable MF-VAR model is better than the single variable MF-VAR model of GOP-CIFA and GOP-VFH separately. This illustrates that cyclic fluctuation in the marine economy is affected by various factors and only the influence degree is different. Compared with the benchmark model,the MF-VAR model has a comparative advantage in the accuracy of short-term forecasting. Estimation and prediction precision decrease with increasing forward prediction steps. The MSE of both univariate and multivariate MF-VAR models are lower than corresponding data with the same frequency mixing benchmark model. The frequency mixing data model can not only solve the problem of short sample length,but also has advantages of extracting high frequency data for the marine economy and improving economic analysis accuracy and timeliness.
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    Response measures of the marine economy to regional economic development
    WANG Zeyu, ZHANG Zhen, HAN Zenglin, SUN Caizhi, LIN Yingrui
    2016, 38 (10):  1832-1845.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.02
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    This article examines the evolution of China’s marine development strategy over different historical periods. Based on the comprehensive empowerment method,we used a fuzzy recognition model,VAR model and GIS space technology to measure the marine economy development level,and analyzed the response of the relationship between national marine strategy and marine economy. We found that from 1996 to 2013,low-value area development accelerated faster,while the development of high-value area development slowed. The regional gap is narrowing and the overall development level presents a fluctuant rising state. In specific regions including Shandong,Guangdong and Zhejiang,the marine economic development tendency remained at a relatively high level;in Liaoning,Jiangsu,Fujian and other provinces the rising tendency evidently ascends to intermediate level while Hainan and Guangxi are at a relatively low level. In Shandong,Zhejiang and Jiangsu,the response degree to national marine strategy is relatively high and their marine economy development positive trend is obvious. In Liaoning,Tianjin and Hebei,the early response degree to national marine strategy is relatively high,while after 2006,the trend starts to decrease and enter a steady state. The response degree to the national marine strategy of Shanghai and Guangxi is less volatile,which shows that marine economic development is relatively stable. Marine economic development in Guangdong,Fujian and Hainan continues to ascend by the influence of national marine strategy,albeit with a lag. In the future,we should generate marine economic development strategies and policies according to local conditions.
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    Impact of urbanization and higher performance industrial structure on CO2 emissions in China: independent and coupling effects
    SUN Yefei, ZHOU Min
    2016, 38 (10):  1846-1860.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.03
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    In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve sustainable economic development,we studied the nexus among urbanization,higher performance industrial structure,and carbon dioxide emissions using panel data from 2000 to 2014 for Chinese provinces. Based on the analysis of the quality effect and expansion effect from urbanization,and the trend of service economy produced by higher performance industrial structure,we studied the nexus from different perspectives. The empirical results indicated that migration caused infrastructure expansion during the process of urbanization,so the expansion effect controls the development of urbanization,and the quality effect has not yet played the role of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. There is a positive correlation between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions. The structural bonus brought by higher performance industrial structure promotes the economic development to show the characteristics of service,so there is a negative correlation between higher performance industrial structure and carbon dioxide emissions. The technological progress and technological substitution produced by higher performance industrial structure are also beneficial to reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Higher performance industrial structure can enhance the capability of absorbing migrants and the level of modern urbanization,so the quality effect of urbanization can reduce carbon dioxide emissions. We can conclude that the structural bonus of higher performance industrial structure can help weaken the high carbon dioxide emissions phenomenon resulting from the expansion effect,but the weakening function shows space heterogeneity.
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    Industrial structure changes impacts on carbon emissions in China based on LMDI method
    GU Alun, HE Congkai, LV Zhiqiang
    2016, 38 (10):  1861-1870.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.04
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    China’s rapid economic growth of the past 30 years has been accompanied by large changes in industrial structure. Changes in industrial structure have a significant impact on carbon emission control,and this is becoming increasingly serious for China. Based on energy end-use data from energy balance sheets we calculated CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2010 in China. Using the LMDI method,the change in carbon emissions was decomposed into economic gross effect,industrial structure effect,energy intensity effect and energy structure effect,and change in carbon emission intensity was decomposed into industrial structure effect,energy intensity effect and energy structure. We then obtained a measure of the influence of industrial structural change on carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. We found that the average annual decline ratio in China’s carbon emission intensity reached 3.71% (2005 constant prices),which basically equals the fastest rate of decline in developed countries. Energy conservation and emission reduction in China has been remarkable. The advancement of technology has made a large contribution to the decline rate and the contribution of industrial structural change is relatively small. The sector breakdown degree will have impacts on the results of industrial structure change influences on carbon emissions in China. The more detailed the classification of sectors,the greater the effect of industrial structural change, but the increased magnitude will decrease. Adjustment of industrial structure will contribute to economic increases,energy demand and CO2 emission reduction in China.
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    Zoning of protected cultivated land based on improved local indicators of spatial association
    CHEN Lili, SONG Ge, ZOU Chaohui, ZHOU Hao, ZHANG Xu
    2016, 38 (10):  1871-1882.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.05
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    This paper presents an improved model of local indicators of spatial association established using an inverse distance weighting matrix amended by cultivated land area and distance. Taking Luobei county, Heilongjiang as an example,we conducted a study on protection zoning of arable land. Our improved model was used to explore the spatial structural characteristics and agglomerate regulation of cultivated land quality by taking the cultivated land quality index as the spatial variable. Spatial association results of different types of cultivated land quality index were analyzed. We found that the reasonableness and accuracy of improved local indicators of spatial association methods were verified. Cultivated land quality exhibited an agglomerate regulation to some extent in terms of spatial distribution,which were similar among different types of cultivated land quality across Luobei. The positive spatial autocorrelation of cultivated land quality which contained the High-High type and Low-Low type emerged as the shape of cluster or band and had a powerful agglomeration. The negative spatial autocorrelation which included the High-Low type and Low-High type barely had a concentrate region;most were distributed dispersedly with little outstanding regular pattern. Different kinds of protection zoning schemes were put forward based on local indicators of spatial association analysis of different types of cultivated land quality indexes. Cultivated land was divided into four one-class types and eleven second-class typesthe four one-class types included core protected areas,key areas of improvement,moderately protected areas and comprehensive improvement areas,and the local indicators of spatial association analysis expanded the regionalization basis of cultivated land protection and provides new thought into the hierarchical and fine management of cultivated land.
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    Utilization dilemma of unstable farmland: the trade-offs between food safety, famers' income and ecological safety
    ZHAO Aidong, XU Shi, ZENG Wei, MA Xianlei, RAO Fangping
    2016, 38 (10):  1883-1892.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.06
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    The existing studies have not yet paid enough attention to the potential impact of the unstable farmland utilization and how to optimize utilization of the unstable farmland. This paper developed a primary impact assessment system of unstable farmland utilization from the triple dimensions of food safety, famers' income and ecological safety, and employed the impact assessment system to analyze the impact of unstable farmland utilization in Jingtai County of Gansu province. The results show that the grain output will decrease by 1.29% and the net income of farmers will fall by 10.22% if all unstable farmland is not used for agricultural production in Jingtai County. However, remaining agricultural production will also lead to serious ecological problems in Jingtai County. Under trade-offs between food safety, famers' income and ecological safety, this paper put forward the suggestions of optimized utilization of unstable farmland in Jingtai County. Based on the case experience, this paper also distinguished the different utilization status of unstable farmland, and proposed three subsequent management measures including remaining farming, engineering reconstruction and farmland conversion. Finally, this paper generalized an analytical framework of unstable farmland management at county-level in China, which provided an policy implication for future unstable farmland utilization.
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    Basis of water rights empowerment and classification of water rights
    SUN Yuanyuan, JIA Shaofeng
    2016, 38 (10):  1893-1900.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.07
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    We analyze the existing water right systems in China and abroad and discuss the present basis of water rights empowerment and classification status. We then state the related concepts regarding water rights empowerment. These concepts include the connotation of water rights,the meaning of water rights empowerment and the necessity of water rights empowerment. On this basis,combined with historical facts of water rights empowerment,we discuss the theoretical basis of water rights empowerment in detail,including the human ethical basis and the practical specific basis of water rights empowerment. Among them,the human ethical basis was the fundamental basis that the water rights empowerment must abide with. In addition,it needed to transfer the ethical basis to operable and specific empowerment basis in order to divide the basic types of water rights. Based on the determined water rights empowerment basis,it broke through the understanding that simply divided water rights into riparian right,priority right and so on. Water rights are comprehensively divided into five basic types,namely the riparian right,priority right,rotation water right,demand weighting water right and ecological water right. The features of different water rights types are compared. Through the clarification of the basis of water rights empowerment and the rational classification of water rights,we have attempted to provide a theoretical basis for the reform of water rights institution.
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    The impact of Zhangye’s water price reform on the economy and water saving using Water-Land CGE model
    LIU Yu, WANG Yu, ZHOU Meifang, DENG Xiangzheng
    2016, 38 (10):  1901-1913.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.08
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    Increasing the water resource use price of agriculture sectors has been an important policy instrument in improving the sustainable use of water resources of the Heihe River basin. Zhangye city is the main consumer of Heihe River basin’s water resources. Taking Zhangye as an example,we explored the impact of agricultural water price reform on Zhangye’s economy and water-savings using a water-land integrated computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The model adopted a highly disaggregated agricultural sector profile and highlights three types of water resources in the production structure. These two features allowed us to better characterize the output change in different agricultural crops in the face of a water price shock,and to explore in detail how an agriculture planting structure adjustment and different types of water resource price adjustment can be conducted to generate minor negative economic impacts but obvious water-savings. Simulation results show that the reform only has minor negative impacts on the economy,with 0.091% loss for Zhangye’s GDP;the benefit from water-saving is obvious with a 9.568% decrease for total water use and 9.384% decrease for water consumption per million GDP. Agriculture sectors were found to be the only contributor to water-savings,with underground water being the main conservation water resource type. Water and land resources are expected to move from agriculture sectors to non-agriculture sectors. Only agriculture sectors experienced a negative shock,with outputs decreasing 4.1% on average. The negative performance of agriculture sectors is due to high water consumption coefficient and increasing water use cost. Our analysis enriches our understanding of the impact of price leverages on water conservation and emphasizes that government should pay attention to the initial negative impact on agriculture and price substitution effect among different water resources.
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    Changes and mechanism of internal water use of products in Tianjin
    LIU Yawen, ZHAO Xu, LIU Junguo
    2016, 38 (10):  1914-1924.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.09
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    Here,we introduce an indicator attached to the virtual water concept termed the internal water use of products (IWUP) to examine direct and indirect water use from local water supply for goods and services in Tianjin for the years 2002,2005,2007 and 2012. The indicator reflects the impact of final demand conditions and product supply chains on local water resources. An environmental input-output analysis technology was used to calculate Tianjin’s IWUP. The driving forces of its changes were studied with structural decomposition analysis (SDA),and its driving mechanism analysis on the social and economic aspects explored. We found that the IWUP of Tianjin increased by 6% (110 million m3)from 2002 to 2012. The effect of per capita final demand volume change is the main driving factor to the increasing IWUP. Whilst the effect of final demand structural change is the principal contributor offsetting IWUP increase. From the point of industrial sectors,which include three categories of agricultural,industrial and service sectors,we find that the agricultural sector has the largest IWUP,but the increase in IWUP is mainly due to expansion of the industrial sector. At the end of this paper we provide some feasible suggestions to save Tianjin’s local water resource and alleviate water pressure. They include reducing exports with high water intensity,improving water use efficiency of export industries,advocating local residents to change consumption patterns,and including water related indicators such as IWUP and water footprint into the green accounting systems of enterprises.
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    Social and ecological benifits evaluation of water-saving irrigation technology adoption in Minqin County
    XU Tao, YAO Liuyang, QIAO Dan, LU Qian, YAN Yan, ZHAO Minjuan
    2016, 38 (10):  1925-1934.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.10
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    An effective way to improve policy sustainability and rationality is via scientifically quantifying non-market social-ecological benifits brought by water-saving irrigation technology. Here,we take Minqin county,downstream of the Shiyang River,as an example,and designed and implemented choice experiments based on a benefit evaluation framework and index system. We then estimated the social-ecological benefits of technology water-saving irrigation adoption using a mixed logit model. The results show that residents of Minqin have formed the cognition of ecological protection,and they expect to take necessary measures to ensure the stability of the ecology and environment. The average willingness to pay for urban households is 657.21 CNY/year,and the average willingness to pay for rural household is 587.06 CNY/year, under the assumption that the ideal level of socio-ecological indicators can be reached through water-saving irrigation technology adoption in the next 10 years. We calculated that water-saving irrigation technology adoption could bring 394.6 million CNY of social-ecological benefits for county residents in the next 10 years,and total the benefits per unit area of farmland is 7674 CNY in Minqin. We point out that choice experiment methods have advantages of reducing measurement bias,acquiring more preference information,and also dealing with multi-index questionnaires more flexibly. However,in terms of selecting evaluation indicators,setting indicator levels,and measuring social-ecological benifits of a wider range of residents in the surrounding areas,more thorough work is needed.
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    The impact of increasing block water tariffs on residential water usage and the welfare of low income families in Chinese cities
    LIAO Xianchun, XIA Enlong, WANG Zifeng
    2016, 38 (10):  1935-1947.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.11
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    Water resource shortages in cities have become one of the most severe environmental problems in China. Under climate change,the rapid development of the social economy has resulted in an exacerbation of water resource shortages. Here,we examine the impact of increasing block water tariffs (IBWT)on residential water usage in Chinese cities using econometric models with a panel dataset (285 prefectures and above cities) spanning 2002 to 2012. The results of econometric analysis show that under a uniform pricing system (UP),increasing water price can really reduce residential water shortage in Chinese cities,however,the welfare of low income families is impacted as water prices increase. Cities with IBWT reduce water consumption by 16.58%,compared to cities with UP. Except for the water price factor,family disposable income per person on average,family total population on average,the ratio of the number of employees to total population in a city,annual rainfall on average,and annual temperature on average tend to increase residential water usage in Chinese cities,while education attainment and population concentration tend to reduce residential water consumption in Chinese cities. Based on these approaches,we designed an IBWT system with a four-tier structure. Through welfare analysis we found that the new IBWT system with a four-tier structure not only increases water use efficiency,but improves the welfare of low income families by 107.6 yuan with a prediction,compared to the three-tier structure proposed by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This work provides policy recommendations with a new IBWT system and four-tier structure by constructing household models under nonlinear budget constraints and welfare analysis.
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    Region-based urbanization and mechanism of Wuhan urban agglomeration
    ZHENG Yanting, MA Jinying, DAI Lizhu, ZHAO Sai
    2016, 38 (10):  1948-1961.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.12
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    Along with economic globalization and the development of information technology,mega-urban regions have become the main spatial unit of regional competition. Most studies of this in China have focused on coastal areas and less is known about central China. From the perspective of urbanization,China’s urban agglomerations are believed to be those areas where regional urbanization has taken place around major core cities. Using Wuhan urban agglomeration as a focal area and population census and social economic data,we demonstrated the characteristics of regional urbanization and explored underlying mechanisms. We found that Wuhan urban agglomeration is characterized by an initial trend of regional concentration of population;regional economic restructuring of employment;and improvement of urbanization level with the involvement of original rural areas which can be demonstrated in urban land use changes in other related study. Mechanism analyses show that this regional urbanization in Wuhan urban agglomeration may include economic growth driven by domestic forces;economic restructuring mainly focused on heavy industries in development zones;and industrial development in major nodes mainly driven by obvious improvements transportation conditions. Based on a fixed effect model,we found that different from the foreign-oriented coastal mega-urban regions,the economic development of Wuhan urban agglomeration is driven by domestic forces,and that the rural-urban transformation of its original rural areas is mainly driven by local economic development,the improvement of transportation and export development.
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    The spatial optimization of mineral industrial capacity reduction planning of resource-based cities in China based on ecological sensitive areas
    SHEN Ming, SHEN Lei, ZHONG Shuai, ZHANG Chao, KONG Hanxiao
    2016, 38 (10):  1962-1974.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.13
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    Against the background of 13th Five-Year Plan and “supply-side structural reforms”,resource-based cities have to cope with the pressures of mineral industrial capacity (MIC)reduction and eco-environmental protection. For coordinating mining and ecological protection,this study analyzed the MIC and integrated ecological sensitive areas (IESAs)layout as well as the MIC-IESAs spatial coupling relationship in 212 mining cities with the technology of geographic information system (GIS)and statistical package for social sciences (SPSS). On the basis,the MIC reduction optimization plan would be proposed. The research conclusion shows that(1)a significant concentration has been found in the MIC distribution,as 47.29% of MIC is mainly concentrated in 22 mining cities;(2)the overall eco-environmental foundation are fragile with the IESAs account for 50.91% in mining cities;(3)the spatial coupling relationship shows that there is no fundamental conflict between MIC and IESAs,for 76.49% of MIC are distributed in IESAs-II and IESAs-III mining cities;(4)according to the MIC reduction optimization plan,the MIC cuts and the IESAs avoiding areas are expected to reach 1.983 billion and 43.15% respectively by 2020,125 mining cities should reduce the MIC positively . Furthermore,coal,general,ferrous metal,nonferrous metal,nonmetal types cities is expected to cut 0.955 billion tons,0.342 billion tons,0.239 billion tons and 0.243 billion tons of MIC respectively;(5)as the result,we suggest to implement the MIC reduction plan preferentially in South China and county regions. Based on the orderly MIC spatial optimization,the sustainable development and transformations of national mining cities would be advanced smoothly.
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    factors of China’s thermal power industry based on network DEA model
    SHAO Liuguo, HE Yingying, ZHANG Shijing, FENG Chao
    2016, 38 (10):  1975-1987.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.14
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    Thermal power plants are one of the main sources of pollution in China. Implementation of the circulation economy in thermal power plants will result in energy savings,emission reductions,and environmental protection. Here,we utilize network DEA modeling based on directional distance function,from economic,social and ecological dimensions to measure the efficiency of China's thermal power industry circulation economy from 2007 to 2013. Convergence tests and influencing factor analysis were also conducted. We found that the value of China’s thermal power industry circulation economy efficiency is generally low. Among which,the efficiencies of the social subsystem and ecological subsystem are relatively low,while the efficiency of the economic subsystem is better. Moreover,such value fluctuation presents the lowest in the eastern region,followed by central and western regions. Economic subsystem efficiency and overall efficiency are convergent and then divergent,and social subsystem efficiency is steady and ecological subsystem efficiency is convergent. The factor endowment structure and energy price are correlated with circular economic efficiency of the thermal power industry. Meanwhile,research and development investment,resource recycling utilization and environmental regulation intensity have negative effects on circulation economy efficiency. By introducing virtual variables,location choice verifies its important influence on the efficiency of the thermal power industry circulation economy.
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    An empirical analysis of policy instrument comparison in China’s environmental industry according to GRA-VAR modeling
    HUANG Qingzi, WANG Zhenzhen, WANG Lijian
    2016, 38 (10):  1988-2000.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.15
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    As a key to combining economy and environment, the environmental industry has been recognized as an essential part of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. In order to accelerate the development of the environmental industry,it is necessary to classify policy instruments and compare their effects on the environmental industry. This paper proposes a conceptual model to classify policy instruments in China's environmental industry. Based on this conceptual model, a GRA-VAR measurement model for comparison of the classified policy instruments is constructed. Based on the data for revenue and environmental policy instruments from 1995 to 2014,the importance of these policy instruments to the environmental industry is further measured. In this paper, the legal and technological policy instruments are used as the administrative means while the economic policy instrument is the economic means for analysis and discussion. The legal policy instrument has the least promotion effects on the environmental industry compared to the economic and technology policy instruments, which mainly results from the indirect effects on the environmental industry's revenue, the imperfect formulation and implement of regulations and the lack of effective mechanism of environmental standard revision. As the economic means, the economic policy instrument has a higher average correlation with the environmental industry compared to the policy instruments of the administrative means, because it costs less financial resources and triggers lower possibilities for rent-seeking or corruption. The technological policy instrument has the largest promotion effects on the environmental industry due to the critical role of technological innovations in the development of emerging industries, but the imperfect mechanism of the environmental technology achievement transformation enables little influence of the achievement promotion tool in this instrument on the environmental industry.
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    Typical country's coordinated development of the economy-society and energy-environment during industrialization
    WANG Xian’en, WANG Hanning, XIA Jing, ZHAO Jingchen, DUAN Haiyan
    2016, 38 (10):  2001-2011.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.10.16
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    During industrial development,harmonious development between the economic society and energy environment varies between nations. The coordinated development of the national economy and society and energy environment is different because of different levels of industrialization in different countries. Here,we look at a range of countries and use a modified coupled coordination development degree model to study the characteristics of national economic and social and energy environment developmental coupling from 1961-2011. We found that the development economy and society in the process of industrialization and the energy and environment have an obvious U pattern;upgrading of industrial structure is key to coupling coordinated development,and the key link in coordinated development is the energy structure and appropriate population scale and urbanization level. From 1961 to 2011,Japan,South Korea,Spain and other rapidly industrialized countries have gone through the whole process of industrialization,the coordinated development of economy and society and energy environment has a U trend. The early industrialized countries of the USA and France are at the right side of the U curve. Egypt,Malaysia and Thailand are at a stage of industrialization and the decline of the left of the U curve. Given the moderate population scale and level of urbanization in China,as soon as possible the country should improve industrial structure and transform energy consumption structure adjustment policy,promote industrial structural forms of development of the ‘Three two one’,prompt clean energy structure,and enhance high efficiency development.
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