Table of Content

    14 January 2016, Volume 37 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Orginal Article
    Construction and development stage decision model of coal industry life cycle in China
    WANG Yun,ZHU Yuen,ZHANG Junying,WANG Bing
    2015, 37 (10):  1881-1889. 
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    The coal industry is a pillar of the energy industry and very important in the Chinese economy and social development. The coal industry of China developed some new characteristics after the ‘golden ten years’ period,and the objective judgement for coal life-cycle stage is of great significance for the sustainable development of China’s coal industry. Adopting relevant theories of industry cycle,and combining the Gompertz-curve model with two methods (calculation and judgement method,empirical method of contrast),based on the status quo of China’s economy and coal industry we built a coal industry life-cycle model and conducted empirical application. By analyzing four dimensions (coal resources and industrial scale,coal industry structure and organization,coal industry technology structure and efficiency dimension,and the government’s role),11 indexes and three judgment methods,we infer that the coal industry in China has experienced a transition period of the industry life cycle and transforming from formation period to a growth period. This means that the coal industry’s reform entered the crucial period and deep water area,the period is also in a major adjustment and transformation period. There are three typical characters:the transition stage of price growth rate,the throes of structural adjustment and the overcapacity digestion phase. This implies that the coal industry wills re-alignment around price for a long period as resources and location advantage gradually disappear in China. With energy production and use trend changing from transform to revolution,technology breakthroughs,popularization and application of coal management innovation and effective application of the clean coal technology,China's coal industry will enter rapid growth. The government should develop many diverse economic policies and measures and promote coal industry transformation and upgrading.

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    Relationship of grain output and economic development from 1978 to 2013 in the major grain producing area of China
    LIU Ying,XIAO Chiwei,LI Peng,JIANG Luguang
    2015, 37 (10):  1891-1901. 
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    Using yearly statistics for grain output and economic development (GDP)from 1978-2013 at the provincial level in the major grain producing area (MGPA)in China,three indicators including the gravity center (GC),geographic concentration index (GCI),and coupling index(CI),were used to determine the GCs of grain output and economic development,quantify the concentration degrees of grain output and economic development and its related CI,and then analyze the relationship and consistency between grain output and economic development. We found that the yearly GCs of grain output and economic development were typically located in the southwest of the geometric GC of MGPA. The grain GC generally moved in a northeastward direction characterized by noticeable but unstable movement,whereas the economic GC moved in an opposite (southwestward)direction featured by slight and stable movement from 1978 to 2013. In 1978,there was 1.173 8 latitudinal degrees of the GCs between grain output and economic development. However,the deviation of the two GCs further increased to 1.506 8 degrees in 2013,and the GC of grain was located to the southwest of the economic GS. Both grain output and economic development showed a weak conformity in 1978. Developed provinces in the east of the MGPA had a lower level of grain production,displaying a slightly reverse-economic feature in the course of grain production concentration. However,the grain-economy relationship was characterized by higher concentration of grain output with obvious reverse-economic feature. In the past 35 years,the number of provinces featured by conformity declined,while difference in the consistency coefficient of grain-economy increased. The inconsistency between economic level and grain production showed an increased tendency which meant both were not spatially-matched, leading to an unfavorable situation labelled by weak economy in the MGPA.

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    Study on South-to-North water transfer middle route project ecological compensation standard
    LI Guoping,WANG Yiqi,ZHANG Wenbin
    2015, 37 (10):  1902-1911. 
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    Here,we explain the comparative advantage theory of regional division and cooperation in a new way,building the theoretical model of division and cooperation of South-to-North water transfer middle route project upstream and downstream ecological and material products,and using regional resource endowments to improve efficiency. However, because of externalities it is hard to translate economic value for ecological products,resulting in development imbalances and inequities between South-to-North water transfer middle route project upstream and downstream areas. We argue that the establishment of watershed ecological compensation mechanisms is an important way to solve the problems of regional developmental imbalances and inequities,and explicating ecological compensation standards is a core issue. We built a watershed ecological compensation standard econometric model combining opportunity cost methods and water value methods. Estimating the loss of emission rights value of South-to-North water transfer middle route project Shaanxi water source areawater sources,we found that three cities in southern Shaanxi should have received 17.63 billion CNY in ecological compensation in 2012. According to the tone water allocation of the intake area,Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and Henan should pay the Shaanxi water source area 2.228 billion CNY,1.857 billion CNY,6.494 billion CNY,and 7.051 billion CNY respectively. This calculation comprises the ecological product value of upstream areas and gives full consideration to the compensation ability of downstream areas. This work provides a reference for other cross-regional ecological compensation standards.

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    Study on the system of assessing value of eco-compensation mechanisms
    ZHANG Sixue,LIN Hanchuan,FANG Wei,HU Haichen
    2015, 37 (10):  1912-1919. 
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    There are two main difficulties with establishing an eco-compensation mechanism in China. First,what is the mechanism of eco-compensation,that is,how and why does it work? Second,how do we assess the compensation value of ecological resources? It is necessary and urgent to establish ecological compensation mechanisms in China because the resource services' function of the ecosystems have been abused,environmental damage,a scarcity of environmental resources and lack of supply,and the excessive use of resources. The elements of the eco-compensation mechanism have been identified;the operation mechanism has been analyzed from funds chains and behavior chains. Ideas and the overall design of the framework focused on five dimensions: who compensates for whom,how much is the compensation amount,where are the compensation funds sourced from,how to compensate,and compensation effects. Taking eco-compensation of resources as an example and using Analytic Hierarchy Processes,we established a system of assessing the value of eco-compensation,and found that the environmental value should be highlighted in assessing eco-compensation value. Further,China should pay full attention to the values or contributions of these indicators,such as clean air,air negative ions,vegetation cover and resource scarcity.

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    Extraction and spatial analysis of impervious surfaces in the Bohai Bay region based on OLI imagery
    ZHAI Ke,WU Xiaoqing,QIN Yuanwei,YU Lu,DU Peipei
    2015, 37 (10):  1920-1928. 
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    The magnitude,location,geometry and spatial pattern of the impervious surface area (ISA)and the ratio of perviousness-imperviousness significantly affect regional eco-environment changes. In 2013,the success of Landsat 8 satellite contributed to the Landsat satellite missions and provided a new data source for land eco-environmental system studies. The OLI and TM imagery were selected as data sources in this paper. The end-member model samples included vegetation,soil,high albedo surface and low albedo surface were selected by the Minimum Noise Fraction Transform (MNF)method. The classification was made by the Support Vector Machine (SVM)method with end-member model samples. In terms of the results of previous studies,an aggregation of high albedo surface and low albedo surface was regarded as the impervious surface area after excluding water and shadows using water indices. The results show that extraction results for the impervious surface area based on OLI imagery is better than for TM imagery;the kappa coefficient of the impervious surface area extraction result based on OLI is 0.90;with the radiance resolution of OLI is 16 bit and the band ranges are narrowed,the color abundance of OLI imagery is improved compared with TM imagery. The area percentage of the impervious surface area in the Bohai Bay region is up to 16.74% totally in 2013;it is about 1 794.30km2 in the region of 0~10km and the reclamation area away from the coastline. Compared with impervious surface area extraction based on TM imagery,the impervious surface area extraction based on OLI imagery is concentrated on the center metropolises and harbor zones,such as Tianjin Harbor district and Huanghua Harbor district,and distributes as a reunite state in the Bohai Bay region.

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    Progress on monitoring soil moisture using SAR data
    LI Li,WANG Di,WANG Pengxin,HUANG Jianxi,ZHU Dehai
    2015, 37 (10):  1929-1940. 
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    Soil water is an important component of surface water storage, and has a direct impact on materials and energy exchange between earth and atmosphere. Soil moisture estimation has been a research hotspot in hydrology, meteorology, agriculture and ecological environment studies. Because of the sensitivity of polarization characteristics, backscatter intensity and phase characteristics to soil moisture, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has demonstrated the potential to map and monitor relative soil moisture changes over field-scale areas with high spatial resolution. However, available SAR data and models once limited its use. Fortunately, with the development of SAR sensors, more and more data are and will be available. Here, SAR sensors are introduced and the trend of sensor development is analyzed. Technical advances such as high resolution, multi-band,multi-polarization,multi-angle, multi-mode radar and forthcoming SAR constellations will enrich the information of backscatter signals and greatly enhance the ability of SAR with respect to soil moisture estimation. Theoretical, empirical and semi-empirical microwave scattering models have been established. Commonly used backscattering models are summarized for random rough surface of bare soil and vegetation cover soil respectively. The effects of radar parameters, soil surface condition and vegetation will confound the retrieval of soil moisture from SAR, and limit applications of SAR as an operational source of soil moisture in spite of its well-known benefits of high-resolution distributed soil moisture. Following a discussion of the influencing factors for soil moisture retrieval, a discussion of parameter selections and correction for soil roughness and vegetation effects is presented. We then review state-of-the-art of SAR soil moisture retrieval methodology. A discussion of problems and trends of soil moisture retrieval is conducted to direct future research.

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    Progress on metabolism of cities
    SHEN Lina,MA Junjie
    2015, 37 (10):  1941-1952. 
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    Along with the increasing rate of urbanization in China,the population living in cities and surrounding areas has gradually grown. In such a highly concentrated modern city,mainly directed by the artificial built-environment,people are importing more and more resources from nature and exporting waste in excess of the load-capacity of natural ecological systems. This has led to environmental degradation in surrounding areas,resource depletion,degradation of natural ecosystems and an imbalance in urban ecosystem metabolism. Imbalances in urban metabolism cause many environmental problems. Here,we review research in this field and summarize the process of the rise,development,stagnation and progress of urban metabolism. Studies tend to approach this from two angles:metabolism on the energy equivalent of Odum,and metabolism from the input to output of urban material. We conclude that the direction of future research is reflected in four aspects:urban indicators of sustainable development;urban greenhouse gas emissions calculations;mathematical models of urban metabolism;and foundations of sustainable urban design. Using urban metabolism to guide urban planning is a new research direction for China. Our future direction should be social,health and economic indicators into the framework of urban metabolism in order to determine a reasonable path for the sustainable development of cities.

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    Effect of ecological construction projects on land use/cover changes in the Poyang Lake area
    SUN Chuanzhun,ZHEN Lin,WANG Chao,DU Bingzhen,HU Jie,LI Peng
    2015, 37 (10):  1953-1961. 
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    Ecological construction projects can quickly change land use and cover (LUC)to a large extent. This paper took three typical villages in Poyang Lake area as our research objects and used high-resolution remote sensing images for land use and cover field study. We shaped the village LUC map for the years 2000 and 2013,before and after ecological construction projects. Based on this information and household questionnaires we analyzed land use/cover change (LUCC)in the three typical villages via LUCC indexes,such as land use degree Index,LUCC importance Index,and the forest and grass cover rate index. Our results shows that from 2000-2013 under a context of ecological construction projects and farmland abandonment,the land use degree decreased and the forest and grass cover rate increased. Different types of ecological projects had different impacts on LUCC. The LUCC importance index caused by returning farmland to lake is relatively high,and this project had a big influence on land use degree index and the forest and grass cover rate index. The LUCC importance index caused by the One Big Target and Four Little Target project is also high; the single One Big Target and Four Little Target project had little impact on land use degree and forest and grass cover rate. However,the combination of this project and returning farmland to lake made the land use degree decrease and forest and grass cover rate increase. The LUCC importance index caused by retuning farmland to forest is relative low,but it had a big influence on land use degree decline and the forest and grass cover rate.

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    Changes of coastal zone landscape spatial patterns and ecological quality in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2010
    CHU Lin,HUANG Chong,LIU Qingsheng,LIU Gaohuan
    2015, 37 (10):  1962-1972. 
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    The coastal zone is the most active natural region on earth's surface due to its special geographical location. The coastal wetland ecological environment has been seriously disturbed by human activity during the past decade. The aim of this study is to reveal changes in coastal wetland ecosystems in Liaoning,China and discuss reasons for change. To do this,landscape types in 2000,2005 and 2010 were analyzed for temporal and spatial characteristics of landscape changes. A landscape ecology classification index model was used to compute the transformed intensity of each ecosystem type. The quality of ecosystem habitat was evaluated using the biodiversity module in InVEST. The relationship between landscape pattern changes and human activities was explored. Results show that the area of natural and artificial wetlands increased in the past ten years and the area of aquaculture land spread was transferred from the sea. The negative value of landscape transformed intensity index in three periods indicate that ecosystem structure degenerated. The decline in the ecosystem habitat quality index implied that habitat quality and biodiversity degraded. Urban expansion and wetland and land reclamation caused this degradation in ecosystem habitat quality. Human activities appear to be a critical factor contributing to land use change phenomena in the coastal zone. Coastal wetland reclamation appeared to be the main reason for coastal wetland evolution. A scientific basis for analyzing characteristics of land use changes and revealing its driving force can provide for the sustainable use and management of coastal land and marine resources.

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    Impact of coal price fluctuation on China's economic growth based on linear and nonlinear perspectives
    LI Wenbo,LONG Ruyin,DING Zhihua
    2015, 37 (10):  1973-1982. 
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    For quite a long time into the future,China's energy production and consumption will continue to be dominated by coal and significant increases in coal prices will have a material impact on the Chinese economy. Based on linear and nonlinear hypotheses and time series data from January 1993 to December 2014 we measured the impact of coal price fluctuation on the macro economy using the chow text,granger causality test and the VAR model. The result indicates that there is a structural break in the sample because of the reforms of coal price mechanisms. Under the linear hypothesis,coal price fluctuation has an obvious short term negative effect on China's GDP but a long term positive impact. This may be caused by China's particular pattern of economic growth. Under the nonlinear hypothesis,the influence of coal price fluctuation on China's macro economy is asymmetrical and compared with the rise in coal prices a fall in coal price has a larger influence on China's macroeconomics. When coal prices climb,the relationship between coal price and macroeconomics are greatly overshadowed by China's growing coal imports and the widening gap of coal price inside and outside. When coal prices decline,the effect of the coal price on macroeconomic enhances with the decrease of coal imports and reductions of the gaps between coal price inside and outside. Based on the above conclusions,several suggestions are proposed to promote the marketization of the coal price,improve the coal market regulation and optimize energy consumption structure.

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    Equilibrium pricing of natural gas in China based on the cournot model of variational inequality transformation
    PENG Ying,XIAO Jianzhong,WANG Xiaolin,DAI Sheng
    2015, 37 (10):  1983-1991. 
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    Resource pricing reform will be an important breakthrough in future reform in China. As an important natural resource,natural gas pricing reform will promote the developmental path and direction for China's natural gas market and will be a critical step in the process of natural gas marketization. Here,we construct an equilibrium model for the natural gas network including natural gas producers,retailers and consumers and analyze interaction mechanisms among three market agents based on the classical Cournot model by means of variational inequality transformation. We applied a numerical equilibrium in order to discuss the change in equilibrium outcomes including equilibrium price and social welfare in three different cases such as cost heterogeneity,multi-gas competition and price regulation. We found that the equilibrium price of natural gas in China will be influenced by upstream competition,transportation costs and production costs in the format of social welfare. Reducing production costs for upstream sectors will not benefit the improvement of social welfare,whilst price regulation will reduce demand expansion in the long-run equilibrium and result in gas shortage. Different pricing reform has different effects on equilibrium price and quantity. Gas-to-gas pricing will drive away the higher cost gas producer. Net-back pricing should play its role through demand function and benefit the development of the natural gas value chain. In the environmental gap between production and demand,net-back pricing has the same effect as gas-to-gas competition pricing and is also an effective price reform transition regime. The condition of transition is the interconnection of gas pipelines which will help regional node pricing.

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    Identification of mineral resource exploitation interests pattern rationality in Xinjiang
    ZHANG Xinhua,GU Shuzhong,WANG Limao
    2015, 37 (10):  1992-2000. 
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    Exploitation of mineral resources and its interest distribution are complex questions. The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China(hereafter Xinjiang)is a typical mineral resource rich region. It is crucial that economic,resources,ecological,and environmental problems are considered along with the development of mineral resources because these raise conflicts between different stakeholders. Here we classified the stakeholders and their interest demands regarding the exploitation of mineral resources in Xinjiang on the basis of questionnaires. The results show that the core stakeholders include central government,local government,mineral resources development enterprises and local residents. Different stakeholders have different interest demands and the central government attaches importance to the resource interests of mineral resource exploitation. Local government pays attention to economic interests of mineral resource exploitation and hopes to increase local fiscal revenue through mineral resource development. What resource development enterprises engage in the exploitation of mineral resources is to realize profit maximization. The first interest demand of local residents is to provide employment opportunities to raise income through mineral resource development. Through the establishment of an index system,the interest pattern rationality of mineral resource development is examined using factor analysis. The result shows that the pattern presents a morbid pattern of interest and needs adjustment and optimization.

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    Assessment of the implementation of general land use planning based on GIS in Sihong County,Jiangsu
    SUN Yujie,GONG Minfei,QIU Xiaolei,FU Bo,LIANG Liutao
    2015, 37 (10):  2001-2009. 
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    Overall land use planning of a certain region is the spatial and temporal arrangement and layout of land utilization types according to physical,economic and social conditions and regional requirements. More important is the strict implementation of planning text. Evaluations of implementation of general land use planning are an indispensable part of general land use planning and an important part of the planning implementation phase. Most of the current research has evaluated using the index system,but this does not reflect land use differences in space. In this paper the implementation effects of general land use planning were evaluated from spatial concordance during the implementation process,the spatial concordance of the implementation outcome,the shift of the barycenter of construction land and the layout of land use patterns by the spatial concordance model,the shift of barycenter model and the annular model with the aid of GIS software. Sihong County in Jiangsu was chosen as the study area for testing the applicability of the above-mentioned models and the models proved to be suitable tools in the assessment of enforcement effects of general land use planning. The evaluation models combine quantitative assessment and spatial analysis altogether and the results could be used in guiding the further actualization of general land use planning. Our study not only enriches the methodology of general land use planning evaluation but also provides constructive guidelines of better actualization of land use planning for local governments.

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    Optimization of land use structure for low-carbon targets in Haidong City,Qinghai Plateau
    ZENG Yongnian,WANG Huimin
    2015, 37 (10):  2010-2017. 
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    Optimizing land use structure for low-carbon targets is important to regional and global carbon cycle research. Here,we investigated low-carbon oriented land use structure optimization for Haidong in Qinghai,China,located in the eastern part of the Qinghai Plateau. Carbon storage and carbon emission factors for each land use type in Haidong were calculated based on local carbon mechanisms. Methods for calculating carbon storage and carbon emission estimation have been established systematically. Land use quantitative structure optimization models aimed at maximum carbon storage and minimum carbon emissions were constructed using linear programming methods. Two optimized schemes were obtained using land use quantitative structure optimization models. By comparing land use planning schemes with that of carbon storage maximizing and carbon emission minimizing we found that although the carbon emission minimizing scheme in Haidong is capable of bringing carbon emissions to the lowest level in 2020,the corresponding carbon accumulation is much less than that of the land use planning scheme. The carbon storage maximizing scheme can increase carbon storage in Haidong to 141.71×106t in 2020,which is 77.7×103t higher than the land use planning scheme. However,this maximizing scheme can decrease carbon emissions to 2.17×106t,which is 319.8×103t lower than for land use planning. In comparing the land use programming scheme,the main advantages of the carbon storage maximizing scheme would be that it increases the rate of increasing forestry and dampens the expansion rate of construction land. Therefore,low-carbon oriented land use structure optimization is good support for government land use planning and adjustment.

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    Land resources carrying capacity of urban agglomeration of the western coast of Taiwan Strait based on biological immunology
    WEI Wei,WU Bowei,WANG Qiang,ZENG Yuee,WU Shidai
    2015, 37 (10):  2018-2029. 
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    This article draws on immunological principles, land carrying capacity (including natural and acquired) and population and socioeconomic development to establish an evaluation index system, and a combined state space and biological immunology model, to evaluate the spatial and temporal differentiation of land resource carrying and sustainable development. We found that from 2006 to 2012, the angle between carrying capacity and pressure was positive to negative on the whole; the trend of sustainable development was less optimistic. Analysis of spatial distribution patterns of land carrying potential for urban agglomeration along the western coast of the Taiwan Strait in 2006 and 2012 found that the proportion of the area with preliminary overload expanded from 72.9% to 90.3%; however, the potential for an internal gap gradually narrowed. The carrying potential of space showed that coastal lands are higher than inlands, the area of local mountains and nodes of development are lower, and that the distribution is closely related to the spatial pattern of topography and development density of the urban agglomeration of the western coast of the Taiwan Strait. In the future the balance between carrying capacity and pressure should be regulated by improving resource utilization efficiency, changing the development approach, and promoting inner parts of urban agglomeration to develop by putting emphasis on guiding various social and economic factors within a reasonable spatial distribution.

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    Suitability assessment of reserve cultivated land resources south of the Yangtze River
    XIAO Linlin,YANG Xiaohuan,CHEN Sixu,CAI Hongyan
    2015, 37 (10):  2030-2038. 
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    Cultivated land in China is diminishing because of urban construction. The evaluation of the quantity and quality of reserve cultivated land resources provides a scientific basis for the application of cultivated land requisition-compensation balance and the expansion of cultivated land. Under the support of 3S technology (remote sensing,geography information systems and global positioning systems),laboratory analysis and field investigation were combined to evaluate the quantity and quality of reserve resources of cultivated land in four provinces south of the Yangtze River(Hunan,Jiangxi,Zhejiang and Fujian). The methods ‘zero for one' and ‘setting tolerance' were used to classify ecological security factors included in the evaluation system. Zero for one is suitable for the elimination of wetland and ecological construction land from reserve cultivated land resources. Setting tolerance is used to get rid of unused land resources with soil erosion and rocky desertification exceeding tolerable levels. We found that in study area,the total area of unused land resources is 8 992.30km2 and that reserve resources of cultivated land totals 5 394.70km2. The reserve resources of cultivated land with large area suitable for utilization were scant or nearly developed. Small amount,low quality and scattered distribution are the basic characteristics of reserve resources of cultivated land in four provinces south of the Yangtze River. The exploitation of reserve resources of cultivated land with small area is indispensable for the balance of cultivated land loss and gain.

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    Spatial difference of water footprint in China in the production perspective based on the analytical hierarchy of economic regions
    WU Zhaodan,WANG Zhangqi,Upmanu LALL
    2015, 37 (10):  2039-2050. 
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    There is significant divergence between water consumption in northern and southern China,and a comparison of regional water use and mining of reference values between mining areas are required. Based on the analytical hierarchy of economic regions,Multi-regional Input- output Analysis,and difference decomposition methods,the spatial disparities of water footprints from the perspective of production (domestic water footprint),and key difference factors are analyzed. We found that domestic water footprint differences among economic regions primarily yield to overall spatial variation with a contribution of 69.46%. The domestic water footprint in Northwest,Central and Northeast regions is larger than that in any other economic regions in China. The inter-economic regional domestic water footprint disparity in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery accounts for 59.19% of the domestic water footprint difference among economic regions,and its key factor is the final demand of this sector,contributing up to 74.57%. The water pressure index in Jingjin region,the domestic water footprint intensity in the Northwest region,and the waste rate of industrial domestic water footprint in the Northeast region are higher than in any other region. In each economic region there are always similarities and variation in the total amount,sector structure and divergence factor among provinces,and some differences in related indicators. There is a need for production adjustment in the Northeast region and Shanghai,and some necessity in the Beijing-Tianjin Area and Jilin. These areas should adjust major industrial production pointedly based on the water footprint regional differences and cause analysis conducted here.

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    Temporal and spatial distributions of area rainfall and the relationship with observed runoff in the Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2008
    ZHANG Xiaohong,CHEN Xing,LUO Liansheng,JIN Lili,WANG Hao
    2015, 37 (10):  2051-2058. 
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    On the basis of rainfall data from 141 observational stations in the Huaihe River Basin and diurnal observed runoff data from Wangjiaba and Wujiadu hydrometric stations from 1960 to 2008,we analyze area rainfall climatic characteristics and variation in observed runoff in the Huaihe River Basin. The relationship between area rainfall and observed runoff are tentatively probed. The statistical results show that from 1960 to 2008 there is a slight increasing tendency of yearly area rainfall in the Huaihe River Basin,but the increasing tendency was not significant. The annual distribution of area rainfall was distinctly heterogeneous,and seasonal transitioning was significant. Quarterly runoff in the region showed an increasing trend,and a decreasing trend in spring and autumn. The winter increasing trend and the autumn decreasing trend are significant. Further,obvious spatial differences exist. Corresponding to area rainfall,annual variation in observed runoff was also significant. Inter-annual variation in the middle reaches which water resources was more unstable and greater than that of the upper reaches. Variation trends in observed runoff corresponded with area rainfall for the catchment basin. There was a simultaneous positive correlation between area rainfall upstream and observed runoff of hydrometric stations in the upper and middle Huaihe River Basin. Precipitation was one of the important factors governing variation in observed river runoff. The unstable precipitation resources caused instability in water resources over the Huaihe River Basin. Human activities did not obviously affect observed runoff in our 50 years of analysis.

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    Hydrological reconstructions and climate events of the holocene paleoflood in the Jingyuan-Jingtai reach on the Yellow River
    HU Guiming,HUANG Chunchang,ZHOU Yali,PANG Jiangli,ZHA Xiaochun,GUO Yongqiang,ZHAO Xueru
    2015, 37 (10):  2059-2067. 
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    Hydrological and geomorphological investigations were carried out in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. Typical palaeoflood slackwater deposit beds of the Holocene period were found at the JPC and YPC site in the Jingyuan-Jingtai gorge. The palaeoflood peak stages were estimated with elevations and deposition depths of the SWD. The results indicated palaeoflood discharges were estimated between 15 110 and 17 740m3/s using the HEC-RAS one dimensional model running with the ArcView environment. A sensitivity test performed on the model indicated that for a 25% variation in roughness values,an error between -10.6% and 5.5% was introduced in the results for peak discharge. Based on flood stage indicators,peak discharge of the 2012 flood was reconstructed in the same reach using the HEC-RAS model and the same hydraulic parameters. The error between the reconstructed and gauged peak flood discharges is 2.7%. These show that the results reconstructed by the HEC-RAS model are reliable. The reconstructed peak discharge of the palaeoflood are about twice the gauged largest floods in the upper Yellow River reach. The flood data series for the river were extended to a 10,000-year time-scale. Stratigraphic correlation and OSL dating shows that extreme palaeofloods were dated to 3 200~3 000 years ago at the turn of the termination of middle Holocene and the initiation of the late Holocene,during the monsoonal shift in the East Asia. The hydrological system experienced abrupt change under the climatic background. Extreme palaeoflood events were documented not only in the upper Yellow River reaches,but also in the middle reaches and other tributaries of the Yellow River. These findings are of significance in understanding interactions between hydrological systems and climatic change in arid and semi-arid regions in China.

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    Temporal and spatial variation in drought and floods in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin from 1961 to 2010
    CAO Yongqiang,CAO Yang,XU Dan
    2015, 37 (10):  2068-2077. 
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    Based on daily precipitation data for 145 meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai River Basin over the last 50 years (1961-2010),we selected the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI),the frequency and range of droughts and floods,and combined morlet wavelet analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)to analyze characteristics of droughts and floods. The results show that,on time,the basin had a trend of warm and dry in the last 50 years. The basin has experienced four phases,1961-1977 was a wet period and the basin was flooded overall. From 1978-1985 was a normal period,in addition,flood event occurred in 1983,the rest area around zero. From 1986-2002 was a dry period,the SPI index value was almost less than 0. The basin was in drought status overall. From 2003-2010 was a transition period,after the moderate flood event in 2003. The drought situation improved,the SPI index was gradually within the normal range. On time,the range of moderate droughts presented a major period of 10 years,other range of droughts presented a major period of 20~25 years;the range of flood gradually reduced. The mutation point of four kinds of range of drought and the range of moderate floods,moderate flood and severe floods were 1977 to 1978. The range of extreme floods is gradually expanding,but not notable. On space,flood frequencies were lower than drought frequencies in the study area,changes in the Haihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin were basic synchronization;changes in the Huaihe River Basin were contrast. Because of the combined effects of latitude and monsoon factors,changes in the study area were zonal and showed an anti-phase change at a north-south latitude of 37°.

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    Analysis and prediction on abnormal persistent drought and flood and prediction in midsummer in southeast of Northwest China from 1961 to 2012
    YANG Jinhu,SUN Landong,LIN Jingjing,YANG Jianling
    2015, 37 (10):  2078-2085. 
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    Here,we used midsummer (July to August)month by month precipitation data from 156 stations from 1961 to 2012 in eastern northwest China,74 Circulation Index from CMA and NCAR/NCEP monthly mean reanalysis data,and the midsummer persistent drought and flood index to map circulation characteristics of persistent drought and flood abnormality over southeast northwest China. The results show that persistent drought events occurred slightly more than persistent flood events in the last 50 years. The strength of persistent flood events was stronger than persistent drought events. In persistent flood years,the Ural ridge is stronger,West Pacific subtropical high pressure is westerly and stronger,and the South Asian high pressure is easterly and stronger than that in persistent drought years. South Asian high pressure was bimodal,from the divergence field to see,low-level wind field performance convergence,and high-level wind field performance divergence,so vertical movement field display upward motion. Abnormal water vapor from the Indian Ocean and Pacific can be transported to southeast northwest China,moisture divergence field performance convergence,and therefore,sufficient water vapor conditions and upward movement result in more precipitation in midsummer. In persistent drought years the opposite is true: no exception of water vapor sources,vertical field show abnormal sinking movement,and precipitation is less. An ensemble forecasting model of persistent drought and flood events was established by the pre-atmospheric circulation index. By taking advantage of the forecast results of nearly 10 a to test prediction ability we found that the model has predictive ability for midsummer persistent drought and flood phenomenon in this region and provides a reference for short-term climate prediction of midsummer persistent drought and flood.

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    Temporal and spatial analysis of extreme climatic events in Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2013
    CAO Yongwang,YAN Junping
    2015, 37 (10):  2086-2098. 
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    Based on daily data for temperature and precipitation from 18 meteorological stations in Shanxi,China from 1961 to 2013 and extreme events define methods and Mann-Kendall Jump tests, 16 indexes that characterize the frequency and probability of extreme climatic events were calculated using RclimDex(1.0). The trends and spatial patterns of extreme climatic events across this region were obtained. The results indicate that the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events increased since the 1990s in comparison with smooth trends from the 1960s to the late 1980s. Frost day(FD0),the percentile value of cold night(TN10P),the percentile value of cold day(TX10P)and the duration of coldness(CSDI)characterizing extremely low temperatures presented downward trends;meanwhile,summer day(SU25),crop growth period(GSL),the percentile value of warm night,the percentile value of warm day(TX90P)and the duration of warmness(WSDI)characterizing extremely high temperatures showed upward trends. Extreme precipitation indexes, except SDII and CDD,showed downward trends during the past 53 years. Precipitation in the study area decreased slightly while the intensity of precipitation and continued dry index increased. Extreme precipitation index characterizing the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation has had obvious change since the 1970s,while the extreme temperature events have undergone a sharp jump since the 1990s. Additionally,extreme temperature and precipitation indices show clear spatial distributions decreasing from south to north. Cold and warm series indices showed that the highest value lies in southern Shanxi;heavy precipitation events increased recently.

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