Table of Content

    14 January 2016, Volume 37 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Orginal Article
    National balance sheets and implications for natural resources balance sheet
    FENG Zhiming,YANG Yanzhao,CHEN Yue
    2015, 37 (9):  1685-1691. 
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    The investigation and preparation of natural resources balance sheet was regarded as an important national strategic mission during the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. It is also an important measurement for perfecting natural resources management system and promoting the construction of an ecological civilization. As a new concept,natural resources balance sheet is lack of theoretic reserve and practical experience in this field and there are many fundamental problems that need to be studied. For example,the definition of natural resources asset and liabilities is not clear,the concept and connotation of natural resources balance sheet is uncertain,and the accounting system is not perfect. National balance sheet has a very important reference value for the preparation of natural resources balance sheet. Here,we discuss the basic problem of natural resources balance sheet from the view of national balance sheet. First of all,we discuss the basic concept and connotation of the national balance sheet. The next,a detailed introduction of the development progress of national balance sheet is given,especially the accounting of natural resources. We briefly reveal the general form of the national balance sheet and estimation methods. Lastly,on this basis,we propose a basis of natural resources balance sheet type,confirm the recognition principle of natural resources asset and liabilities,and recommend accounting methods of natural resources asset.

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    Establishment of a space-temporal database for compiling a natural resources asset balance sheet
    JIANG Dong,ZHUO Jun,FU Jingying,YAN Xiaoxi,HUANG Yaohuan
    2015, 37 (9):  1692-1699. 
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    To improve environmental governance and ecological restoration and promote the construction of an ecological civilization,the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to compile a natural resources asset balance sheet and execute off-office auditing of leader implement natural resources assets. Here we preliminarily combed data supporting the main methods of international natural resources and environmental accounting,analyzed data requirements and source circumstances when China compiles the natural resources asset balance sheet. We propose a natural resources asset balance sheet compilation combining natural resources science and spatial information technology. On this basis,combining research from Huzhou in Zhejiang province (one of the first demonstration areas of ecology civilization construction)we deal the owned scientific data with integration,index integration and quality diagnostics. We generate the bottom data set according to basic database standards of natural resources asset balance sheets for the focal area,including natural resources and environmental profit and loss elements. We adopted methods such as multi-source remote sensing data fusion,human elements,spatialization updating the database dynamically,building natural resources asset balance sheet compilation,and an applied basic database that is standardized,normalized and high-precision in space-time.

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    Design and application of regional scale environmental pollution physical accounting
    FENG Zhe,GAO Jiangbo,MA Guoxia,GAO Yang,PAN Tao
    2015, 37 (9):  1700-1708. 
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    Natural resources accounting is an essential tool in the process of understanding physical flows within the environmental and economic coupling system. It is also an important means to balance regional economic development,environment protection and sustainable development. Physical accounting of environmental pollution is an important part of natural resources accounting. This research reviews the development of environmental physical accounting,drawing on the latest international research and the accounting system of green national accounting experience,and collecting principles of accounting systems at a regional scale. Based on the existing national accounting system and environmental statistics,this research designs the physical accounting system of environmental pollution,including environmental pollution physical accounts,balance sheets,and integrated environmental quality evaluation index. Taking Huzhou,Zhejiang,China as a study case,this research accounts the physical quantity in water environment pollution,and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of this accounting system. The results show that in order to meet the need of environmental accounting at a regional scale,the designs of physical accounting systems of environmental pollution should follow four principles:compatibility,relevance,orientation and feasibility. In the process of environmental pollution physical accounting,researchers should use the integrated indicators to reflect environment quality,and establish flow accounts to account for pollutants and waste generation,treatment,discharge and consumption in regional economic activity. Using this accounting system will benefit governments,residents,and companies. This requires broad participation and support from regional governments and the community.

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    Concept definition and system construction of gross ecosystem production
    MA Guoxia,ZHAO Xuetao,WU Qiong,PAN Tao
    2015, 37 (9):  1709-1715. 
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    Ecosystems are a dynamic complex of plant,animal and micro-organism communities and their non-living environment interacting as a functional unit. They change as a result of natural processes or because of human actions. Ecosystem services are central in the ecosystem accounting framework since they provide the link between ecosystem assets on the one hand,and benefits used and enjoyed by people on the other. How to carry out scientific and rational Gross Ecosystem Production (GEP)accounting is a key point in realizing ‘the establishment of the ecological civilization requirements of the target system,assessment,reward and punishment mechanism’ as stated by the 18th Party Congress. However,many researchers have confused the concept of GEP and ecosystem assets value,and concepts and accounting systems require defining. The terms gross and net are used in a wide range of accounting situations. The term net is used simply to refer to the difference between two accounting items,GEP accounting should be net accounting,but not gross accounting as in the same meaning in GDP. Based on reviews of ecosystem services value,the accounting boundary,unit,framework and methods of GEP are explored here,and the accounting difficulties of GEP analyzed. Biological diversity,inter-ecosystem flows,support system,and non-biological service should not be included in the accounting of GEP. In common with all accounting systems,ecosystem accounting is founded on relationships between stocks and flows. There are two key points in GEP accounting:ecosystem services change led by ecological system assets change,and benefit changes in the economic system based on changes in ecosystem services.

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    Natural resources accounting and the natural resources balance sheet
    CHEN Yue,YANG Yanzhao,YAN Huimin,FENG Zhiming
    2015, 37 (9):  1716-1724. 
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    Investigation and preparation of natural resources balance sheet is an important measurement for perfecting natural resources management system and promoting development in China. Natural resources accounting is regarded as an important method of sustainable development and the basis of natural resources balance sheet. Here,we briefly described the link and differences between RA and EA and reviewed international research progress of natural resources accounting from theoretical and practical aspects,natural resources accounting progress from resource accounting,environmental pollution and comprehensive accounting aspects in China. We described the evolution of the SEEA system in detail and compared the major Environment-Economic accounting systems from the aspect of accounting content,accounting scope and accounting methods and through this comparison of different Environment-Economic accounting systems,pointed out the virtue we need to learn from natural resources accounting during the establishment of natural resources balance sheet. On this basis,we analyzed the difficulty when preparing natural resources balance sheet and its relationship with SEEA which the system of Environment-Economic accounting serves as an important theoretical basis and data sources for the preparation of the natural resources balance sheet. We hope to promote and perfect system of natural resources balance sheet through investigation and practical application.

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    Design and empirical study of a land resource accounting system for natural resources asset balance-sheet compilation
    XUE Zhichao,YAN Huimin,YANG Yanzhao,FENG Zhiming
    2015, 37 (9):  1725-1731. 
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    Natural resources asset balance-sheet(NRABs)is a new concept proposed during the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. There are no precedents for this framework and it is imperative to explore the system and method of natural resources balance sheet for all kinds of natural resources. As a basic resource,land resource accounting is an essential part of compiling natural resources asset balance sheets. We provide a review of the method and system of land accounting,describe the target,content and principles of land accounting in our NRABs compiling practice,and discuss the possible challenges in land accounting for NRABs with the example of Huzhou city,Zhejiang province. We tried to establish a land resources asset accounting system that focuses on land resources assets changes caused by land use activities,and the land accounting system should reflect the land resources status quantitatively and qualitatively. Land resources asset is difficult to evaluate because the land quality and quantity always change with land use activities. Multi-function land use is important for land resources accounting because the land function can quantitatively express land quality variations. However,the accounting methods of land assets value at present cannot reflect functional differences between lands in different locations or with diverse qualities. Therefore,establishing a new method for land assets value evaluation based on multi-functional theory in land use would be a useful attempt to promote the accurate land accounting for compiling of NRABs.

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    The property rights system of natural resources assets and balance sheet of natural resources asset compilation
    YANG Hailong,YANG Yanzhao,FENG Zhiming
    2015, 37 (9):  1732-1739. 
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    :The decision to “Explore to compile balance-sheet of natural resources assets,implement natural resources assets audit system to outgoing cadres” was made during the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. As an important institutional innovation,there is no ready-made experience to compile natural resources assets balance sheets. Compilation balance sheet of natural resources assets faces enormous challenges. The scientific compilation of the natural resources assets balance sheet is greatly affected to a large extent by the faultiness of the natural resources assets property rights system. Here,from the perspective of natural resources property rights,we analyze the specific characteristics of the natural resources assets property rights system,and point out that the diversity and complexity of the subject and object of natural resources assets should be taken into consideration. Ecological environmental protection should be brought into the establishment of the natural resources assets property rights system. On this basis,we discuss the indeterminacy of subjects and objects of natural resources assets and that its complexity largely affects the compilation of natural resources assets balance sheets. We should improve the property rights system of natural resources assets as soon as possible,further improve the legal regulations of natural resources assets property rights,and explore the compilation of natural resources assets balance sheets.

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    The value of ecosystem services in China
    XIE Gaodi,ZHANG Caixia,ZHANG Changsun,XIAO Yu,LU Chunxia
    2015, 37 (9):  1740-1746. 
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    Ecosystem services with an extremely high economic value impact human well-being significantly. The practices of ecological system asset management,ecological compensation,and paid use of ecological system assets are urging to fully evaluate ecosystem service value. In this paper,the economic values of 11 types of ecosystem services are accounted based on the expansion of labor value theory and using the method of equivalent value factor per unit ecosystem area. We found that the total value of ecosystem services in China is 38.10×1012 CNY,of which,forest ecosystem services value account for 46.00%,followed by aquatorium and grass ecosystem service value accounting for 21.16% and 19.68%,respectively. In terms of the economic value derived from different types of ecosystem services,support services accounted for 71.31%,regulation services accounted for 19.01%,provision services accounted for 5.87% and cultural services for 3.81%. The value of ecosystem services vary seasonally during a year,the value of ecosystem services during May to September is higher; from October to April the value of ecosystem services is relatively low. The ecosystems per unit area in southern and northeastern China supply higher ecosystem services values; the overall trend of the spatial distribution of ecosystem services value per unit of ecosystem area is gradual reduction from southeast to northwest. With comparison between per capita ecosystem service value and per capita GDP in different regions of China in 2010,the per capita ecosystem service value in China is 2.84×104 CNY,close to per capita GDP,which fully demonstrates the relative scarcity of China's ecosystem service,especially in economically developed and densely populated areas.

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    An overview of the resilience of agro-ecosystems
    LI Xiao,ZHOU Dingyang
    2015, 37 (9):  1747-1754. 
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    As an important attribute of the social-ecological system,resilience is essential for the sustainability of complex systems to implement sustainable development. On the basis of understanding existing results,this review summarizes the concept of resilience and the resilience of agro-ecosystems. Then it combs research progress of resilience of agro-ecosystems from influence factors,evaluation and scale effects in China and internationally in recent years,summarizes factors influencing the resilience of agro-ecosystems from two aspects of natural factors (water resources,land resources and climate resources)and social factors (economic conditions,resources management system,social characteristics,etc),discusses the influences of resilience of agro-ecosystems at different time and space scales,sums up the methodology of resilience of agro-ecosystems from the aspects of qualitative and quantitative evaluation. We point out that we should focus on using multi-scale coupling analysis and quantitative analysis in future research into the resilience of agro-ecosystems,strengthen research into more vulnerable areas of climate change,and pay attention to the role of social factors in the research of the resilience of agro-ecosystems.

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    Ecological red line planning and related key issues analysis for China
    JIANG Dalin,CAO Xiaofeng,KUANG Honghai,CAI Mantang,HUANG Yi,YIN Chunyan
    2015, 37 (9):  1755-1764. 
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    Ecological red line is a new eco-environment protection planning system in China. The concept of the ecological red line originated in the last decade and has developed into a national strategy. The purpose of ecological red line delineation is to ensure ecological integrity and ecosystem service function,and make sure that the economy develops in a sustained way. Red line areas of ecology play an important role in ecological security and environmental protection in China. Ecological red line delineation remains at an early stage,so here we review the definition and historical evolution of the ecological red line. The theories of ecological red line are summarized,including ecological security,ecological carrying capacity,ecological integrity and ecosystem service function. Indexes for evaluating ecosystem service function and eco-environmental sensitivity are summarized. According to different natural environment characteristics and ecosystem types,we propose key evaluation content and indexes for ecological red line planning in different regions of China,and analyze key issues in the progress of ecological red line delineation such as the minimum area percentage of ecological red line for local ecosystems;ecosystem function and ecological sensitivity evaluation content selection;minimum evaluation unit selection;ecosystem function and eco-environmental sensitivity evaluation methods and power determining;spatial data resolution selection and processing;coordinating ecological red line with other city planning;and how to manage the ecological red line. Preliminary advice for these issues are discussed. We hope this study supports ecological red line delineation theoretical development.

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    Snowfall change characteristics in China from 1961 to 2012
    ZHANG Zhifu,XI Shuang,LIU Na,YU Yu,FAN Shaohua,FENG Mingnong
    2015, 37 (9):  1765-1773. 
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    The paper studies snowfall change characteristics in China using the relative index of snowfall from 1961 to 2012,based on daily precipitation and human observed weather phenomenon from 1400 stations. Results indicate that the distribution of snowfall is inhomogeneous spatially. The maximum snowfall season range,snowfall value and snowfall days were north of Sinkiang,northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau,respectively. The snowfall value of heavy snow is the chief class in Central China,and the snowfall value of light snow is the chief class in other regions. Snowfall days for light snow is the chief class in all five regions;it is 65% in the Central China and about 84% in other region. The snowfall season range is decreasing in all five regions,the snowfall season end date has evidently moved up in the Tibetan Plateau,North China Plain and Central China;the snowfall season origin date has been delayed north of Sinkiang. Changes are not evident in northeast China. In the time series trend analysis,the snowfall value and snowfall days are increasing north of Sinkiang because,its great snow is increasing. Snowfall days and snowfall value have no evident trend in the northeast of China. In the other regions,the snowfall value and snowfall days are decreasing;heavy snow and light snow are decreasing on the Tibetan Plateau; light snow is decreasing on the North China Plain;and great snow and light snow are decreasing in Central China.

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    Temporal-spatial abnormity of drought for climate warming in Southwest China
    YAO Yubi,ZHANG Qiang,WANG Jinsong,SHANG Junlin,WANG Ying,SHI Jie,HAN Lanying
    2015, 37 (9):  1774-1784. 
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    Drought index analytical methods based on the relative moisture index were used to study temporal variation,spatial distribution and sub-regional evolution characteristic of drought in southwest China using meteorological data from 1958 to 2012. The results show that the average drought area in recent 55 years covers 30% of the total area in southwest China.Some regions on the West Sichuan Plateau,Southwest Sichuan Upland and north and central regions in Yunnan have a drought appearance frequency of up to 60%. The negative absolute value of the relative humidity index in these regions increased over time and drought intensity increased. Components in most regions of the EOF first modality feature vector are negative,indicating that oscillation phases of drought intensity in most southwestern parts are the same. High load regions of each component are focused in the central part of Yungui Plateau,and this region is the area where abnormal drought would be easier to appear with a higher oscillation intensity and sensitivity among all spatial types. The EOF second modality feature vector field showed an opposed phase character because the,southern part including the Yunnan Plateau and south Guizhou Plateau are mainly influenced by the south Asian monsoon while the northern part including Sichuan,Chongqing and north Guizhou are mainly influenced by the Tibetan Plateau monsoon and east Asian monsoon. According to different modality and spatial distribution of REOF feature vector field,the studied region is divided into four sub-regions. West Sichuan abnormal type had obvious decreased drought intensity and catastrophe point from dry to wet was in 1987. Drought intensity of the North Sichuan abnormal type has increased and the catastrophe point from wet to dry was in 1968. The Yunnan Plateau abnormal type and Guizhou Plateau abnormal type have,a decreasing drought index had decreasing trend with fluctuation,but failed to pass a significance test.

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    Selection of WRF land use/cover data and usage in urban heat island simulations
    CAO Zheng,LIAN Lishu,GU Zongwei,ZHU Pingsheng,LI Baofu
    2015, 37 (9):  1785-1796. 
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    Given that WRF land use/cover data is delayed and incorrect, we selected three kinds of prevailing land use/cover data (MOD2012, GLC2009 and GLC2000) to compare with WRF inside LUCC data, and then selected LUCC data for UHI simulation. We found that MODIS2012 LUCC can best reveal the amount and spatial distribution of land use type among chosen data. When the MODIS2012 data is used in the WRF model, the correlation coefficient and rms error of simulated temperature, precipitation and wind speed is increased compared with simulation results, of which WRF inside LUCC data is used. The UHI intensity, which is 0.671 in study area, is strongest in October and weakest (0.467) in April. The maximum daily UHI intensity appears between 22:00 h to 23:00 h, and the minimum daily UHI intensity appears during 13:00 h to 14:00 h. Zaozhuang urban area has more influence on UHI intensity center location. Due to the influence of the prevailing wind, the UHI intensity center in Shizhong district of Zaozhuang and Tengzhou moves north in spring and summer, while the UHI intensity center in Shizhong district of Zaozhuang and Tengzhou moves south in autumn and winter. According to the temperature contribution of different land use types, the temperature contribution of built-up is the highest, and the smallest is that of water. The order of temperature contribution of different land use type is built-up> farmland > forest > unused >grassland > water.

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    A case-based cellular automation model for simulating changes in rural residential areas
    GONG Jian,YANG Jianxin,LI Yafang
    2015, 37 (9):  1797-1806. 
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    As at 2011 China had a rural population of 657 million people,accounting for 48.7% of the total population. The rural residential area,as a gathering place for rural people,still accounts for the vast proportion of urban and rural residential land in China. The study of rural residential area has mostly focused on rural residential land consolidation,spatial distribution optimization and the driving forces of evolution;however,simulating the spatial distribution changes of rural residential area remains rare. Here,we applied cellular automata modeling to simulate rural residential area changes,gained cellular transformation rules using case based reasoning methods based on analogical reasoning principle of k-Nearest Neighbor similarity,determined the new case state at reasoning only by accounting similarities of cases with states already changed,drive variable standard deviations to decide the variable weight,applied the ROC method to determine the optimum valve of the only parameter k of the model,applied the Markov method to take total number control over the model,and used the improved Kappa coefficient to verify the accuracy of simulation results. Rural residential area from 1991 to 2004 was the model training data;calibration of model parameters was done with data for changes from 2004 to 2009; rural residential area distribution situation of 2009 was simulated by contrasting the actual situation for the study area in 2009. The total percentage accuracy of simulation results was 96.68% and the improved Kappa coefficient value was 0.93. The results show that the cellular automata model based on case based reasoning has a higher simulation accuracy,which can be used in simulation and analysis of changes in rural residential areas.

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    A review of the impact of payments for ecosystem services on land use change:appearance,factors and mechanisms
    WANG Yurong,LONG Kaisheng
    2015, 37 (9):  1807-1815. 
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    Land use change can affect multiple ecosystem services,so linkages between land use change and ecosystem services have attracted broad academic and policy attention. Payments for ecosystem services are increasingly used for changing kinds of land use to promote environmental conservation. This article analyzes the appearance,factors and mechanism of the impact of payments for ecosystem services on land use change using literature review,a case study and theory induction. A framework of the impact of payments for ecosystem services on land use change iss established. The results indicate that,payments for ecosystem service programs lead to forest and grass land cover,landscape patterns and land use efficiency change. The design,property allocation,contracts and participants’ willingness;technology,regulation and payment strategy for ecosystem service programs,and the harmony of payments for ecosystem services programs to local culture and trust,exerted a profound influence on land use change. Based on the core interest of land use,we establish a framework with indicators of net income,sustainability and compliance. Generally speaking,land users,who made decisions under the consideration of net income,will exert an influence on land use change with the balance of interests from the paths of sustainability and compliance. This study provides recommendations to perfect the design and implementation of payments for ecosystem services programs in the future.

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    The impact of farmland transfer on agricultural production efficiency based on the DEA-Tobit model
    QI Jiaoer,GUO Guancheng,CHEN Yongsheng
    2015, 37 (9):  1816-1824. 
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    We analyzed farmland transfer effects on agricultural production efficiency using the DEA-Tobit model and field surveys of Jiangsu, China. We found that the average productivity of sample farmers is only 0.143 and low level; there is much room for improvement, the main reason is the low efficiency of the technology. Overall circulation households efficiency is higher than households without transfer. Both the behavior of roll out land and roll in land are conducive to improve production efficiency, and the impact on production efficiency of the behavior of roll in land is more significant than the roll-out land. Therefore, farmland transfer is an effective way to improve the efficiency of agricultural production, but the government should increase production service investment and advanced technology in agriculture to raise technical efficiency firstly, and create more opportunities for transferring land to encourage conditional farmers to roll out land to let them have the best ratio of production factors to improve their production efficiency secondly. what’s more, the government should encourage farming experts to roll in land in order to achieve scale operation to further improve efficiency.

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    Self-development abilities of farmers in the northeast grain production area of China
    HUANG Xinxin,AN Pingli,CAI Lujia,WANG Fangtian,LI Sheng,LI Xueming
    2015, 37 (9):  1825-1833. 
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    The self-development ability of farmers is vital to ensure food security and to understanding three dimensional rural issues. Here,we developed the concept of farmer self-development ability and proposed a study at three levels:intention layer,behavior layer and the performance layer. An evaluation index system of farmer self-development ability was established and includes four basic methods:the ability to obtain information,ability to manage risk,ability to use resources and supporting ability of the environment. We studied farmer self-development ability in the northeast grain main production area of China. We found that the ability of farmers to obtain information in the northeast grain main production area is below average;the main reason is narrow information channels. In the face of disasters like drought,the ability to manage risk is low. Farmers’ performance in the disaster is insufficient,and low yield stability after a disaster is common. The ability of farmers to use resources is located at a mid-level,but their intention to use resources needs to be improved to improve potential resource utilization. In general,farmers’ self-development ability is low. The shortage and aging of agricultural labor and a low level of knowledge are the main factors limiting self-development abilities. The government has to pay attention to farmer characteristics and arable land use efficiency in order to improve self-development capacity in the farming community.

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    Changes of crop farming and policy implications in Chongqing Municipality from 1978 to 2011
    XIN Guixin,WEI Chaofu,YANG Chaoxian,DENG Hua
    2015, 37 (9):  1834-1847. 
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    Based on Chongqing Municipality,a grain production and marketing balance area in China,we used statistical data and semi-structured interviews to study changes,reasons of crop farming and policy implications over the last 30 years (1978-2011). The results indicate that during the last 30 years changes in crop farming were a kind of competitive situation with contraction of grain and expansion of vegetables and fruits;regional planting patterns changed from ‘dominated by grain’ to ‘give consideration to both grain and vegetables,fruits’;and crop farming realized efficiency. Changes in crop farming in Chongqing Municipality were a result of the combined action of various factors. For the whole process,the starting point of changes was from the liberation of farmer autonomy,the change condition was environmental change induced by all kinds of factors,and the basis of change was from different characteristics of crops. To ease the competitive situation,safeguard the self-sufficiency rate of grain,and improve the yield and quality of vegetables and fruits,methods include defining the redline of the grain sown area,shifting the planting patterns of grain,speeding up mechanization and installation,and the specialization of vegetables and fruits. To improve cultivated land use efficiency,based on Chongqing’s experience we suggest agricultural policies in grain production and marketing balance areas that transform the direction of agricultural policy from ‘One Focus’ (focusing on the grain production)to ‘Two Combinations’. One combination is the transfer of agricultural labor force and the capitalized agriculture of labor-saving,and the other is to maintain grain output stabilization and develop agricultural resource advantages and diversification.

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    Vulnerability assessment and mechanism of human-land systems in the Han Dynasty Chang’an large relic area
    ZHANG Lixin,YANG Xinjun,CHEN Jia,WANG Ziqiao,ZHANG Jing,YU Jie
    2015, 37 (9):  1848-1859. 
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    Theory of vulnerability is a tool to analyze interactions and mechanisms of human-land relationships and provides a new perspective on sustainability evaluation research. Here,we took the Han Dynasty Chang’an large relic area as an example and based on the concept of vulnerability evaluated the vulnerability of the human-land system using Fuzzy AHP and spatial analysis technology. The results show that the degree of vulnerability of the relic area is generally low:the low degree vulnerability area is concentrated and the high degree area is scattered along the edge of the relic area. The degree of society vulnerability is generally high:the high degree vulnerability area is concentrated,and society vulnerability in the northwest area is high and low in the southeast. In the large relic area,a weak degree vulnerability area in the whole area accounts for 27.2%,low degree vulnerability area accounts for 23.8%,moderate degree vulnerability area accounts for 27.9%,high degree vulnerability area accounts for 11.7%,and extreme degree vulnerability area accounts for 9.4%. The spatial distribution pattern of the vulnerability shows that the degree of human-land system in the north and west area is high,while in the south and east is low. The impact and stress of urbanization is the fundamental cause of vulnerability of the human- land system;residents’ rational choice is the internal agent of vulnerability of the human-land system;the externalities coming from protection policy to a certain extent affect the vulnerability of society.

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    Interpretative validity research of tourism panels based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of Shanghai historic districts
    PAN Zhiqiang,LIANG Baoer
    2015, 37 (9):  1860-1870. 
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    We use the example of tourism interpretative panels in Shanghai historic blocks,ranking as the most popular part in tourism interpretative system. Using a combination of factor analysis,AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,we establish a destination interpretative validity evaluation system from the perspectives of tourists. We found that the interpretative content of panels (U1),interpretative techniques of tourism panels (U2),design of tourism panels (U3)and techniques and setup of tourism panels (U4),which make up first-class indicators in validity evaluation system of destination interpretative panel,cater for the reading and understanding of tourists;the ranking of their weighting was (in descending order):U3> U1>U2>U4. Shanghai historic districts perform well in the construction of a tourism interpretative panel systems,all of the three aspects of interpretative contents of tourism panels (U1),design of tourism panels (U3)and techniques and setup of tourism panels (U4),won positive evaluation results,satisfying tourists demand for tourism panel design,interpretive content and tourism panel setup. However,the result of factor U2 (interpretative techniques of tourism panels)received a lower evaluation score and means that more attention should be given to tourism panel techniques. This has greatly affected tourists’ deep understanding of interpretative contents,thus depress tourists’ satisfaction and willingness to revisit. Overall,Shanghai historic districts have performed well in the evaluation of interpretive validity of tourism panels,satisfying tourists’ basic requests for tourism interpretation. However,more needs to be done regarding interesting,more interpretive techniques and establishment of tourism panels.

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    Interactions between inbound tourism from nine Asian countries and import and export trade
    SHI Zhangyu,ZHOU Baohua,SHEN Jinghong,ZHU Lei
    2015, 37 (9):  1871-1879. 
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    International tourism and international trade are two mutual connections and influence systems. International tourism can push international trade;international trade also promotes international tourism and these two are often synchronously developing in many countries. Based on relative data from 1997 to 2012 for inbound tourism from nine Asian countries and import and export trade between China and the same nine countries,we analyzed the interactive relationship between inbound tourism and two kinds of trade using the co-integration test,Granger causality test and regression analysis. We found that inbound tourism to China and two kinds of trade with China form a long term and stable equilibrium relationship. The results of Granger causality test indicate that interaction relationships of different countries’ inbound tourism and import and export trade are different due to high diversity in trade scale and structure,the level of tourism industry development and economic development. The states of Japan,South Korea,Malaysia and India belong to tourism-promoting trade; the states of Mongolia,Indonesia,Singapore and Thailand belong to trade stimulating tourism; the Philippines is a tourism and trade mixed type. Regression analysis shows that interaction strength between inbound tourism to China and import and export trade with China have obvious differences. The promoting role of Malaysia’s inbound tourism to import trade is the largest;and the pushing role of Indonesia’s import trade to inbound tourism is the largest. Conclusions show the different characteristics and interactive relationships between inbound tourism and import and export trade,and provide referential suggestions for developing inbound tourism industry and formulating international trade policy.

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