Table of Content

    26 January 2016, Volume 38 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Orginal Article
    Trade-off analyses and synthetic integrated method of multiple ecosystem services
    FU Bojie,YU Dandan
    2016, 38 (1):  1-9.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.01
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    :Ecosystem services are the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems. Research on ecosystem services has been a hotpot in the fields of ecology, geography and environmental sciences since 1990s. Towards a better understanding of ecosystem services and a strengthened linkage between science and policy, Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) was established officially by the United Nations General Assembly in 2012. To date, IPBES has built a conceptual framework for assessment of ecosystem services, and determined the main tasks, including three rapid assessments and two assessments for policy decision. To provide insights into the main tasks, we synthesized trade-off analyses and synthetic integrated method of multiple ecosystem services, and took the Loess Plateau as a case to identify the potential and effectiveness of the above method. The results showed that there was a positive relationship between land use and soil conservation, carbon sequestration, while there was a negative relationship between land use and water yield. In addition, the grain productive capacity was closely related to agricultural production condition, artificial input and technical progress. As trade-off and synergy among the multiple ecosystem services are scale-dependent, more research should be carried out in the aspects of regional suitability assessment of vegetation restoration and water effect.

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    Ecological footprint of catering industry food waste in Beijing
    ZHANG Dan,CHENG Shengkui,GAO Liwei,CAO Xiaochang,LIU Xiaojie
    2016, 38 (1):  10-18.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.02
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    Food waste is a problem of increasing severity and awareness. Wasting food not only means food itself is wasted,but that agricultural inputs such as land resources are also wasted. It is widely accepted that food waste has to be reduced;however,a lack of knowledge on food loss and waste within the catering industry has caused serious ignorance and underestimation of catering food waste among governments and the public. This research is specifically targeted at catering food waste and land costs. Detailed information and data were collected by an investigation of catering food waste in different restaurants and fast food restaurants in Beijing. Ecological footprint(EF)is used to calculate land utilization related to food waste. The EF method is improved with new parameters to make the calculation more suited for Beijing. The results show that the total catering EF of food waste is 294.7knhm2, nearly one fifth of Beijing’s territory area. The catering EF of urban inhabitant food wastage is 205.3knhm2,about 70% of the total EF of catering food wastage in Beijing. The catering EF of tourism population food wastage is 89.4 knhm2,which is 30% of the total EF of catering food wastage in Beijing. The most important part of catering food waste is meat,which accounts for more than 80% of total food waste EF. Grain follows,accounting for 7% of the total food waste EF. Importing food from other provinces seems to be effective in reducing EF in Beijing. On the other hand,Beijing tends to be suitable for developing animal husbandry and fishery. To reduce food wastage,China must strengthen the guidance of green consumption,promote the practice of thrift and economy within society,establish and perfect the rules and regulations of saving food.

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    Variation in Hetao Basin wetlands from 1973 to 2014
    LI Shanyang,GUO Huaming,HUANG Shifeng,MA Jianwei,LIU Haiyan,SUN Yayong
    2016, 38 (1):  19-29.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.03
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    A study on variations of wetland and their causes in the Hetao Basin was carried out against the background of water pollution,swamping of lakes and salination in order to provide references for rational utilization and protection and relevant researches of wetlands in study area. Here we examined variation in wetlands over the last 40 years based on wetland watersheds and remote sensing images of the Hetao Basin,Region,China. According to hydrologic conditions and characteristics of human activity,the study area was divided into irrigation wetlands and Wuliangsuhai wetlands;the irrigation wetlands consisted of Yellow River irrigation areas and well irrigation areas. We found that the total wetland has generally increased. The Yellow River irrigation area was greatly influenced by local precipitation and showed an obvious recession during periods of low rainfall. The Wuliangsuhai wetland changed significantly and expanded from 1977 to double in area by 1996 because of large-scale construction of canal irrigation and drainage. A progressive decrease in the area of well irrigation in the northern part of the Hetao irrigation area can be attributed to massive exploitation of groundwater for agricultural irrigation. Overall,under the influences of human activity and climate change,the Hetao wetlands have changed greatly,especially during the 1970's. The wetlands in different geographical locations suffer from different influences,resulting in distinguished changes in the area of wetland.

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    Differences in driving-force mechanisms in urban land expansion in China
    ZHANG Yaoyu,CHEN Ligen,SONG Luyi
    2016, 38 (1):  30-39.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.04
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    Considering the basic characteristics of China can be described as too many people and too little land. So the phenomena that urban sprawl in the urbanization should be taken as a seriously problem and be solved as soon as possible. Before we try to regulate the urban sprawl ,we must make clear the driving-force mechanism of the urban growth. In this paper,from the view of urban size and urban hierarchy,we attempt to form a more detailed theoretical framework of urban expansion driving force. Furthermore,we used data from 2001 to 2011 for 243 cities in China and a fixed effects model and found that the pushing effect of population on urban expansion decreases when urban size increases. Tertiary industries are pushing small city expansion and secondary industries are pushing medium city and mega city expansion. Government expenditure plays a more significant role in urban expansion in large cities and mega cities than small and medium cities, The government’s behavior regarding inviting investment can push urban expansion in large cities;however,it can reduce urban expansion in small and mega cities. Land finance can push land expansion. Compared with prefecture level cities,governments in high status cities can promote urban expansion more effectively by using the government expenditure. Because of policy bias,the governments of the high status cities have more power to influence urban expansion and the existence of the misapplication of resources,secondary industries are still a powerful factor which can influencing urban expansion in high status cities, especially in mega cities. After the existence of heterogeneity between cities is shown,then we can suggest that the policy about urban expansion need to consider differences between the cities.

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    The distribution relationship between urban land-use type and industry units in the central urban area of Tonghua City
    LI Wenbo,WANG Dongyan,LI Hong,JIANG Shan,SHI Pu,LIU Shuhan,LU Hong
    2016, 38 (1):  41-49.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.05
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    Reasonable industry land-supply and intensive industry land-use are formed on the premise of knowing about details of regional industry and distribution relationships between land and industry units. Here,we report the spatial autocorrelation conditions of urban land and industry units and their spatial distribution using the central urban area of Tonghua City as an example. We found that the distribution of urban land and industry units shows a positive spatial autocorrelation and that Moran’s I decreases with an increase in weighted distance. Spatial autocorrelation of mining warehouse land,residential land,commercial services land and public management-services land is significant,as is wholesale and retail,public management social security and folk organizations and other commercial service industry units. Manufacturing,mining and other public service industry units distribute randomly across the study area. All industry units can be incorporated into secundiparity units,tertiary industry units and nonprofit units;in correspondence with mining warehouse land,commercial services land and public management-service land respectively. The attributes of industry units in Tonghua mostly match the land they are located within. Hybrid functional areas should be established for mismatches with reasonable existence,but most mismatches should be avoided by strengthening industry land-use review. Designation and regulation of pillar industry land-use would support and guide industrial development based on regional industry structure. The future spatial distribution of Tonghua steel-smelting units should be more focused and eventually form a scale industrial land zone. Pharmacy and wine-making industry land should be transferred outside the central area and gradually gather in the pillar industry band.

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    Characterizations of urban sprawl in major Chinese cities
    TONG Luyi,HU Shougeng
    2016, 38 (1):  50-61.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.06
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    Synthetic multi-scale expansion measurements are essential to identifying inherent urban sprawl driving forces and dynamic principles,approaching effective national urban sprawl control,and facilitating neo-urbanization and ecological civilization construction in China. We characterized urban sprawl from 2000 to 2012 in 216 major cities in China using degree-of-freedom,degree-of-sprawl and conceptual degree-of-goodness metrics. We found that despite overall compact urbanization sprawl observed in China,the relatively low-quality urban growth contributed by the expansion under uncontrolled modes was still scared. This showed different characteristics of urban sprawl at varied scales;specifically,the major sites for sprawl in eastern and central China with high degree-of-freedom and degree-of-sprawl values, which were mixed in different areas, obtained less comfortable expansion. Relatively low-quality expansion processes were observed in Guangdong,Hebei,Shandong,Henan and Anhui,while autonomous and western regions experienced more amicable urban growth. Although general compact growth patterns were generated in metropolitan areas,they were less coordinated,i.e.,high heterogeneous expansion in space and low-quality urban growth in some local parts from a conceptual perspective. It is predicated that inland and metropolitan districts will be major sites where urban land will be developed in coming decades. At the city scale,Guangzhou,Shijiazhuang,Ji’nan,Hefei and Xiangtan have lower degree-of-goodness values for urban sprawl. Initiatives to achieve hierarchical (national,regional,and local city levels)urban sprawl monitoring and management frameworks are vital tasks for integrated and balanced urban land development in time and space,high quality urbanization patterns,and sustainable urban development in China.

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    The impact of local government construction land supply structure on migration in Shandong,China
    PENG Shangui,WANG Yinghong,CHEN Chen,WANG Jian,LEI Gang,CHENG Daoping
    2016, 38 (1):  62-72.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.07
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    In order to reflect the impact of local government land supply behavior on migration, clarify the mechanism of population inflow influenced by construction land supply structure adjustment. Here,we built a general equilibrium model for local government,enterprise and residents using panel data for prefecture-level cities in Shandong,China from 2001-2013. We analyzed the empirical impact of construction land supply structure of local governments on population inflow using threshold regression. We found that the construction land supply structure has an inverted U type relationship with population inflow. The effects on population inflow are different when construction land supply structures are different. The (0,0.823) interval enhances the value of the construction land supply structure and helps draw population inflow while increasing the proportion of industrial land or decreasing the proportion of commercial and residential land. The (0.823,∞) interval has a negative impact on population inflow if we continue to increase the proportion of industrial land or reduce the proportion of commercial and residential land. The partial regression coefficients of construction land supply structure is less than the population size (26.617 3)and city location (11.445 5)and greater than infrastructure investment (1.399 5). This indicates that the structure of construction land supply is an indispensable factor to population inflow. Based on real demand of the government itself on population inflow,local governments can use the construction land supply structure as a tool and adopt different ways to regulate and guide the population inflow and outflow.

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    Relationship between changes in revenue sharing policy for land conveyance and arable land loss
    XU Zhiying,ZHONG Taiyang
    2016, 38 (1):  73-82.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.08
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    Recently,irrational use of land resource caused by land financial problems has drawn academic attention in China. Exploring the interaction between the change of revenue sharing policy for land conveyance and arable land loss, will provide suggestions for perfecting land financial policies. We reviewed the history of sharing schemes for farmland occupancy tax and state-owned land leasing revenue between the central government and local government since the 1980s. Then we analyzed time series data for the sharing proportion for these two types of land conveyancing related to revenue and arable land occupied for construction. Unit root test,co-integration test,vector error correction model and granger causality tests were used. Results show that the sharing proportion of farmland occupancy tax and state-owned land leasing revenue changed frequently from 1987 to 1999. A long term co-integration relationship exists between the revenue sharing proportion for land conveyance and arable land occupied for construction. We found single direction causality from the change in the revenue sharing proportion to change in arable land occupied for construction,revealing that increases and decreases in the arable land occupied by construction respond to changes in the revenue sharing proportion. The adjustment of revenue sharing schemes for land conveyancing was influenced by several complicated reasons,such as local government behaviors. Therefore,effective and powerful adjustment of revenue sharing schemes for land conveyancing play an important role in arable land protection. Government and land administrative departments could formulate proper sharing subjects and sharing proportions according to different types of land conveyance revenue to prevent high quality arable land conversion. At the same time,this move could effectively avoid failure under the overlay of many kinds of land revenue as well as waste of limited land resources.

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    Suitability evaluation of arable land consolidation in mountain areas of Northwestern Hubei based on Bayesian Probability Modeling
    HU Xuedong,WANG Zhanqi,ZOU Lilin
    2016, 38 (1):  83-92.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.09
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    How to arrange arable land consolidation projects and improve the efficiency of arable land consolidation in mountain areas under increasingly serious arable land protection situation is an important component of land consolidation planning. And suitability evaluation of arable land consolidation is the premise of arable land consolidation projects arrangement. Taking Fang county in northwest Hubei,China as a case study,we first selected eight affecting factors, including irrigation assurance rate,terrain slope,soil texture,effective soil layer thickness,arable land coefficient,distance to road,distance to town center and field scale index, to characterize the arable land consolidation suitability. The weight values of affecting factors and posterior probability of arable land consolidation were calculated to obtain a distribution map of arable consolidation suitability by Bayesian Probability Modeling. We found that among factors affecting arable land consolidation of mountain areas,arable land coefficient,irrigation assurance rate,terrain slope and distance to road have more influence on arable land consolidation than others. A total of 88.81% of the area is distributed in suitable arable consolidation areas when comparing arable land consolidation placing in 2013 with predictions of arable consolidation suitability; this indicates the model is feasible. These data provide a reference for suitability evaluation of arable land consolidation and can contribute to the practicability of land consolidation planning in mountainous areas in China.

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    Determining and estimating impacts of farmland consolidation projects on the regional carbon effects
    ZHANG Shu,JIN Xiaobin,YANG Xuhong,SHAN Wei,ZHOU Yinkang
    2016, 38 (1):  93-101.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.10
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    As a practice relying on engineering measures,farmland consolidation has an important influence on land use such as altering its structures and patterns. Farmland consolidation projects also exert significant effects on regional carbon balances. Here,we analyzed the carbon effect from three aspects:the carbon effect of engineering construction,land structure and land use patterns. We calculated comprehensive carbon effects in the case of farmland consolidation projects in Yixing City,Jiangsu,China. We found that farmland consolidation increased regional carbon sinks,carbon storage increased by 3 718t,but it also remarkably increased carbon emissions. Carbon emissions increased by 6 830t because of engineering construction,and the annual carbon sink increased by 5 459t. Farmland carbon stocks increased by 11 071t,among which the increase in farmland was a main factor. The increment of soil carbon storage accounted for 87.21% of the total carbon storage increment. Irrigation and drainage engineering were the main reasons affecting carbon emissions,accounting for 70.96% of total carbon emissions during engineering construction. The consumption of construction materials such as cement,steel and diesel were major sources of carbon emissions. The construction of shelterbelts had significant effects on the result. The annual carbon sink increased by 23.64% because of the increased acreage of arable land and improvements in agricultural irrigation.

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    Analysis of the industrial water Kuznets curve
    ZHANG Bingbing,SHEN Manhong
    2016, 38 (1):  102-109.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.11
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    Water scarcity is a major challenge during economic development and even for human survival in the 21st century. Under pressure to implement total water consumption controls in China,we should pay attention to industrial water saving because of its great water saving potential. Based on panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2013,qualified through the unit root test and co-integration test,we tested the relationship between industrial water usage and industrial economic growth for China overall and eastern,central and western China. We found that the relationship curve between industrial water usage and industrial economic growth of eastern China is an inverted U type Kuznets curve,with a turning point at 28 612.15 CNY per capita in industrial output. The relationship between industrial water usage and the industrial economic growth curve of central China is an N type Kuznets curve,with a turning point at 15 546.048 and 35 733.952 CNY per capita in industrial output. However,the curves for industrial water usage and industrial economic growth for China overall and western China are monotone increasing curves. Through further analysis,we found that technological innovation and structural upgrades are reasons for the turning point of the inverted U type Kuznets curve; while water price increases and water rights trading systems are economic incentive reasons. In order to save water resources,China should be positive about technological innovation,promote industrial upgrades,increase industrial water prices and implement a water rights trading system.

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    Water requirements within the pig industry in China and factor analysis
    LIU Xiaolei,LUAN Yibo,HU Ke,Reshmita Nath,CUI Xuefeng
    2016, 38 (1):  110-118.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.12
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    Due to rapid urbanization and increases in per capita income,China is experiencing a drastic increase in pig meat production in order to meet the growing demand of per capita meat consumption. The water requirements for livestock products is much higher than vegetal counterparts. The water requirements for pig production (composed of water requirement of feed crops growth and pig farming)are increasing to satisfy the development of China’s pig industry. From the perspective of pig production,we estimated water requirements for the pig industry from 2001 to 2012. The results indicate that the water footprint (WF)of pig production has decreased from 3.39 in 2001 to 2012,but during the same time total water requirements within the pig industry increased from 191 000×106m3 to 265 000×106m3,an increase by 38.95%. By applying the logarithmic mean divisia index method,we found that increasing consumption and population have positive effects on increasing water requirements in pig production. In contrast,an advancement in water footprint for pig production has promoted water saving. Among these three factors,the largest contributor to water requirements is consumption. Simultaneously,the scale of water requirement has increased. This study reveals changes in the pig farming water footprint under pig farming cultivation over a long time scale. These findings will help optimizing relationships between limited water resources and the sustainable development of the pig industry.

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    Circular-economic development of individual Chinese iron and steel companies by decomposing resource productivities indictors
    ZHANG Juan,ZHENG Yi,WANG Xuejun,WU Xin,TIAN Yong
    2016, 38 (1):  119-125.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.13
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    Resource productivities are key indices for measuring the performance of circular-economic practice and development. This study proposes an approach to decompose a resource productivity indicator into two sub-indicators:a ‘soft-power’ sub-indicator to reflect product structure,capital management and marketing performance of companies,and a ‘hard-power’ sub-indicator to reflect the circular economic technological and equipment levels of companies. This decomposition approach was applied to the resource-intensive steel and iron industry in China using three representative companies as case studies to help reveal the factors impacting company resource productivities. We found that during 2005 to 2012,the three selected companies demonstrated significant variation in resource productivities with development of the economy and technology in China. For the entire steel and iron industry,energy resource productivities and water resource productivities were controlled by the hard-power of industry and highly impacted by macroeconomic conditions. Iron ore productivity was mostly determined by soft-power,because the consumption of iron ore to produce per ton crude steel was mostly unchanged. For the three companies,their resource productivities were mainly determined by their soft-power. The soft-power of Baosteel and ShouGang Group was largely impacted by macroeconomic conditions such as raw material price and market demand. The soft-power of TISCO was determined by management performance,such as product structure,marketing management,staff education and training. Overall,the results of this study and the approach proposed will provide valuable information for circular-economic practice in the steel and iron industry of China and other resource-intensive industries.

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    The impact of national key forestry programs on labor utilization and transfer in China
    LIU Yue,YAO Shunbo
    2016, 38 (1):  126-135.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.14
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    The policy objectives of national key forestry programs are not only for ecological restoration and environmental governance, but improving farmers’ livelihood. Using balanced panel data for 15 counties in six provinces in China from 1995 to 2012 we measured the impacts of different types of key forestry programs on rural labor force utilization and transfer. The Panel Probit Model was used to consider labor force participation and the Fixed Effects Model was used for labor supply. Because of survey data with inter-class correlation,the Fixed Effects Model was completed by clustering. The main results show that there are different kinds of effects among different kinds of Key Forestry Programs. The Sloping Land Conversion Program(SLCP),Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (DCBT)and Wildlife Conservation and Nature Reserve Development Program (WCNR)improve access to non-agricultural markets for farmers. At the same time,these three programs have positive effects and increase the work time of farmers involved who already have off-farm jobs. However,the active influence of the Shelterbelt Development Program (SBDP)is not obvious both on work force participation and supply. The Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP)and Fast-growing and High-yielding Program (FHP)have a certain inhibition effect on rural labor force allocation. On this basis we use tracking household survey data over 18 years to measure the different ages of farmer participation in Key Forestry Programs,primarily the effects of the SLCP,DCBP and NFPP. We found that the DCBT was better than the SLCP in sustainability of farmers’ off-farm participation in final calculation results. We conclude with policy recommendations based on our main findings.

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    The relationship between livelihood capital and livelihood strategy based on logistic regression model in Xinping County of Yuanjiang dry-hot valley
    ZHAO Wenjuan,YANG Shilong,WANG Xiao
    2016, 38 (1):  136-143.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.15
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    Livelihood capital is the basis for farmers’ livelihood strategy. Probing into the impact of farmers’ livelihood capitals on livelihood strategies is of great significance for improving local farmers’ livelihood. Based on sustainable livelihood approach framework,status quo of livelihood capital for farmers of Xinping dry-hot valley was assessed with field survey data. Logistic regression model was adopted to explore the relationship between livelihood capitals and livelihood strategies. The results showed as follows:firstly,for the five types of livelihood capital,financial capital exhibited the highest index of 0.994,physical capital exhibited the lowest of 0.313,while natural capital,human capital and social capital ranked in between with respective indexes of 0.662,0.569 and 0.479. In the meantime,pure agricultural strategies,agricultural dominant strategies and non-agricultural dominant strategies were the popular ones adopted in the study area. Secondly,natural and physical capitals exerted the most significant impact on farmers’ choice of pure agricultural livelihood strategies,social and physical capitals exerted the most significant impact on farmers’ choice of agricultural dominant ones,while financial capital exerted the most significant impact on farmers’ choice of non-agricultural dominant ones. Thirdly,financial and social capitals were the key factors affecting farmers’ conversion from pure agricultural to agricultural dominant strategies. In particular,total family income,leadership,household labor capacity,per capita number of machines and per capita area of paddy field as well exhibited positive impacts. With increase of proportion of the above-mentioned indexes,odds ratio from pure agricultural strategies to agricultural dominant ones would increase as other conditions remain unchanged. Fourthly,financial and human capitals were the key factors affecting farmers’ conversion from pure agricultural to non-agricultural dominant strategies. In particular,per capita net income,bride expenditure,adult labor education level,participation in community rites and per capita acreage of dry land as well exhibited positive impacts. With increase of proportion of the above-mentioned indexes,odds ratio from pure agricultural strategies to non-agricultural dominant ones would increase as other conditions remain unchanged.

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    Regional economic and urbanization effects on iron ore demand based on a sample of 27 countries
    JIA Liwen,XU Deyi
    2016, 38 (1):  144-154.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.16
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    This paper uses data from 27 typical countries to examine and compare the demand for iron ore in China. The sample is divided to increasing countries,decreasing countries and increasing-decreasing countries;panel model and the FGLS method are applied. The main factors affecting the demand for iron ore are economic growth level,urbanization level,energy consumption level,industrialization level and technology level. The results show that there is a similar model of demand for iron ore in China and Russia (increasing countries). The economic growth level, technology level and energy consumption level has major effects on iron ore demand in these countries. In terms of China,a 1% increase in per capita GDP leads to an increase in per capita iron ore consumption of 1.4tons. For decreasing countries such as USA industrialization, urbanization and energy consumption level are the main factors adjusting the structure of iron ore demand. A 1% increase in industry factor results in an increase in per capita iron ore consumption of 8kg. For increasing-decreasing countries (e.g. Sweden),iron ore demand is mainly influenced by industry factors and energy consumption levels. In detail,a 1% increase in the industry factor increases per capita iron ore consumption by 22kg. We believe that the China iron ore market should draw on the experience of USA,Sweden,Russia and other countries to improve industrial structure,upgrade the efficiency of secondary industries and technology level for iron ore use,and promote urbanization construction in order to ameliorate iron ore consumption structure.

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    Modelling the impacts of climate change on spring maize yield in Southwest China using the APSIM model
    DAI Tong,WANG Jing,HE Di,WANG Na
    2016, 38 (1):  155-165.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.17
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    The APSIM-Maize model was calibrated and validated using crop and soil data from agro-meteorological experimental stations in maize planting zones in Southwest China (SWC). The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics in simulated rainfed yield of spring maize were analyzed to explore the impacts of changes in main climatic factors during the maize growing season on yields from 1961 to 2010. We found that the APSIM model performed well in simulating phenology,above-ground biomass and yield of six representative spring maize varieties. The root mean squared error between simulated and observed growing periods was less than 8 d for all varieties and the normalized root mean squared error between simulated and observed above-ground biomass and yield was less than 29% for four varieties. Growing season total solar radiation decreased in the central,southern and northern SWC;≥8℃ accumulated temperature increased evidently in western SWC;daily diurnal temperature range decreased in western and southeastern SWC;and total precipitation decreased in central SWC. As a result,the simulated rainfed yield of spring maize declined at 46% of all study stations in SWC,especially in central,eastern and southern SWC. The contribution of decreasing solar radiation,increasing temperature,decreasing precipitation and decreasing diurnal temperature range during maize growing season to yield reduction was 32%,40%,1% and -2%,respectively,in stations which had a significant decline in yield.

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    Evaluation of agricultural vulnerability to drought in Guanzhong Area
    LI Mengna,QIAN Hui,QIAO Liang
    2016, 38 (1):  166-174.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.18
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    Guangzhong Area is one of the most important production regions of crops,so it’s of great importance to know its agricultural vulnerability. In the evaluation of agricultural vulnerability to drought in Guanzhong Area,to make the selection of indexes and determination of the weights of indexes more scientific,grey relation analysis and combination weighting game theory were put into use. 10 indexes were screened out from 12 indexes,and the combined weights of these indexes were calculated. Agricultural vulnerability value to drought in Guanzhong Area was calculated by vulnerability model which is developed by comprehensive index method. Contribution model was applied to analysis each city’s main contributing factors and indexes. The results show that:the least vulnerable city is Xi’an,and the following is Weinan,Xianyang,Baoojiand and Tongchuan. Sensitivity and restorative make similar contribution to Xi’an,while lack of effective irrigation area,and less consumption of agricultural plastic film per unit arable area are the main contributors. Restorative contributes more for Weinan and Xianyang. Low government revenue and low per capita GDP are the main contributors for two cities. Sensitivity and restorative make similar contribution to Baooji. Sensitivity contributes more for Tongchuan. Irrigation water consumption per unit area of farmland and water supply capacity of water conservancy projects are the main contributors for Baooji and Tongchuan. Finally,to reduce each cities’ agricultural vulnerability to drought,countermeasures are put forward based on the main contribution indexes.

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    Changes in outdoor thermal sensation and sensitivity to climate factors in Beijing from 1960 to 2014
    LI Shuangshuang,YANG Saini,LIU Xianfeng,LIU Yanxu
    2016, 38 (1):  175-184.  doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.19
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    :Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index(UTCI),we analysed climatic charac-teristics of human-perceived temperature in Beijing from 1960 to 2014. Dominant climatic factors driving variation in UTCI were quantitatively analysed using sensitivity analysis methods. We found that the average annual UTCI was 9.2℃ in Beijing over the last 55 years and that people felt comfortable on the whole. Regarding decadal change,the UTCI in Beijing underwent a decrease (1960-1970),increase (1971-1990)and high stable period (1991-2014). Regarding seasonal change,people feel comfortable in spring and autumn. Moderate heat stress and moderate cold stress were detected in summer and winter,respectively. A significant increase in the UTCI was detected beginning in the mid- to late 1980s; warming in spring and winter is more obvious than summer and autumn. The decrease in strong cold stress days was obvious in Beijing (-5.8d/decade)and variation in moderate cold stress days has increased over time (2.6d/decade). Linear trends in moderate heat stress and comfortable days were 1.0d/decade and 1.6d/decade,respectively. UTCI sensitivity to temperature seems to be strong in Beijing at annual and seasonal scales. However,major factors and contributions of climate factors showed considerable differences across different seasons. For example,changes in UTCI were related to increasing temperature and decreasing wind speed in winter,whereas increasing temperature and relative humidity were major driving forces in summer. These results and sensitivity analysis were validated under given conditions based on modification of the real data set.

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