%0 Journal Article %A Yanzhi SUN %A Lei SHEN %A Shuai ZHONG %A Litao LIU %A Na WU %A Linpeng LI %A Hanxiao KONG %T Driving force analysis of carbon emission changes in China %D 2017 %R 10.18402/resci.2017.12.06 %J Resources Science %P 2265-2274 %V 39 %N 12 %X

As an important part of economic development,it is essential for carbon emission reduction to clarify factors affecting carbon emission changes in China. Based on input-output analysis (IOA)and structural decomposition analysis (SDA),we demonstrate detailed insights into how diverse driving factors affect carbon emissions. The results indicate that the total carbon emission is increasing from 5.36 to 15.82 billion tons,and carbon emission intensity is reducing from 2.00 to 0.86 t CO2/10000 CNY. The driving factors of these carbon emission changes are decomposed into technology,sectoral connection,economic structure,gross economic scale and population. Technology effect always offsets the carbon emission increase. On the contrary,gross economic scale and population have significant positive effects on carbon emissions. It is noteworthy that sectoral connection effects abruptly change from negative to positive because of industrial policy. In China,industrial policies are mainly divided into macro-control policies and industrial self-adjustment policies. Research shows that policy evolution is conducive to carbon emission reduction:before 2002,macro control policies plays a major role in the change in carbon emissions,and the expansion of economic and population scales increase carbon emissions. Technological progress is the major driving force of carbon emission reduction in this period. from 2002 to 2012,industrial self-adjustment policy has the larger impact on carbon emission reduction. Owing to strengthening industry market competition,energy flow and industrial restructuring are promoted. Energy efficiency is improving,and industrial linkage and economic structure play a more important role in reducing carbon emissions. In the future,technological progress is no longer the only driving force in decreasing carbon emissions,and pathways to carbon emission reduction are diversified.

%U https://www.resci.cn/EN/10.18402/resci.2017.12.06