普惠金融对农户宅基地退出行为的影响——基于成都市试点区域401份农户样本

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.11.16

Abstract

Abstract:

Studying the impact of inclusive finance on farmers’ homestead exit behavior is of great significance to promote the reform of rural homestead system and rural revitalization strategy. Using the survey data in typical areas of Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, this study constructed farming households inclusive finance index by using factor analysis method from the micro level, adopted the Probit model to analyze the impact of inclusive finance on farming households' homestead exit decisions, explored the intermediary role of risk expectation in the impact, and further analyzed the intergenerational differences of the impact. The results show that: First, inclusive finance has a significant positive effect on household residential land exit behavior. Second, inclusive finance indirectly affected homestead exit through the intermediary variable risk expectation, and the intermediary effect of risk expectation accounted for 17% of the total effect. Third, inclusive finance of the new generation and the old generation both have a significant positive impact on the homestead exit behavior, but from the comparison between the two, there is no obvious intergenerational difference in the impact. Therefore, based on household financial demand and supply, we should increase rural financial support, enhance the level of inclusive finance, and guide farmers to form a reasonable risk perception towards homestead exit. We should also formulate targeted policies and measures for different generations of farmers to reduce their risk expectation, strengthen policy guidance and realize financial knowledge sharing among different generations and finally promote the orderly exit of rural homesteads.

Key words: inclusive finance, risk expectation, residential land exit, Probit model, factor analysis, Chengdu City

SUN Le, YUAN Shaofeng, ZHU Congmou. Effect of inclusive finance on farming households’homestead exit：A case of 401 households in the pilot area of Chengdu City[J].Resources Science, 2021, 43(11): 2342-2355.

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References 36

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	维度	指标命名	指标定义
需求层面	使用性可得性保障性	家庭储蓄/万元是否有借贷被拒情况从银行借贷难易度是否购买商业保险	无存款变量取值为0 被拒变量取值0,否则取值为1 1~5分,分值越高借贷越容易有购买变量取值1,未购买取值为0
供给层面	便利性	最近金融服务点到居住地的距离/km	是指最近的金融服务网点距居住地的距离, 采用倒数进行分析,并将负数转化为正向指标

变量类别	变量名称	定义及赋值	均值	标准差
被解释变量	Y：宅基地退出	已经退出=1;没有退出=0	0.59	0.49
核心解释变量	X1：普惠金融指数	“家庭储蓄”“是否有借贷被拒情况”“从银行借贷难度”“是否购买商业保险”“金融服务点距居住地距离”	1.25	0.15
控制变量	X2：性别 X3：户主年龄 X4：户主教育 X5：户主社会经历 X6：家庭总人口 X7：家庭年收入 X8：宅基地面积 X9：宅基地确权 X10：宅基地政策	男=1;女=2 户主实际年龄/岁户主接受教育年限有=1;否=0 家庭总人口数家庭年纯收入/万元宅基地总面积/m² 是=1;否=0 很不了解=1;不了解=2;一般=3;了解=4;很了解=5	0.94 57.35 5.74 0.13 4.30 7.17 188.45 0.94 1.96	0.24 12.30 3.87 0.34 1.75 6.86 97.92 0.25 1.16
中介变量	X11:风险预期	退出宅基地后面临的风险等级（毫无风险=1;微小风险=2;轻度风险=3;中度风险=4;高度风险=5）	2.52	1.09

成分	初始特征值			平方载荷的提取
成分	全部	方差百分比%	累计百分比%	全部	方差百分比%	累计百分比 %
成分一(F1)	1.29	25.73	25.73	1.29	25.73	25.73
成分二(F2)	1.09	21.82	47.55	1.09	21.82	47.55
成分三(F3)	1.04	20.77	68.32	1.04	20.77	68.32
成分四(F4)	0.83	16.51	84.83
成分五(F5)	0.76	15.17	100.00

	成分
	1	2	3
1.家庭储蓄(x1)	0.56	-0.22	0.09
2.是否有借贷被拒(x2)	0.21	0.21	0.81
3.从银行借贷难易度(x3)	0.53	-0.23	-0.05
4.是否购买商业保险(x4)	0.37	0.38	-0.54
5.金融服务点距居住地距离(x5)	0.08	0.79	0.05

是否退出宅基地（因变量）		回归（1）：基准模型估计					回归（2）：平均边际效应估计
		Estimate	S.E.	95%置信区间			Estimate （dy/dx）	S.E.	95%置信区间
		Estimate	S.E.	下限	上限	下限	Estimate （dy/dx）	S.E.	上限
普惠金融指数	X1	0.90*** （0.00）	0.16	0.58	0.58		0.25*** (0.00)	0.04	0.18	0.33
户主性别	X2	0.47 （0.11）	0.29	-0.10	1.04		0.13 （0.11）	0.08	-0.03	0.29
户主年龄	X3	-0.02*** （0.01）	0.01	-0.03	0.00		0.00*** （0.01）	0.00	-0.01	0.00
户主受教育程度	X4	0.05** （0.03）	0.02	0.00	0.09		0.01** （0.03）	0.01	0.00	0.02
户主是否有社会经历	X5	0.61*** （0.01）	0.23	0.15	1.07		0.17*** （0.01）	0.06	0.04	0.29
家庭人口数	X6	0.01 （0.76）	0.05	-0.08	0.11		0.00 （0.76）	0.01	-0.02	0.03
家庭收入	X7	-0.10*** （0.00）	0.02	-0.13	-0.07		-0.03*** （0.00）	0.00	-0.03	-0.02
宅基地面积	X8	-0.00** （0.02）	0.00	0.00	0.00		-0.00** （0.02）	0.00	0.00	0.00
宅基地是否确权	X9	1.42*** （0.00）	0.37	0.68	2.15		0.39*** （0.00）	0.10	0.20	0.59
是否了解退出政策	X10	0.12* （0.06）	0.07	-0.01	0.25		0.03** （0.06）	0.02	0.00	0.07
常数项	cons	-0.17 （0.79）	0.62	-1.38	1.05

Effect of inclusive finance on farming households’homestead exit：A case of 401 households in the pilot area of Chengdu City

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		回归（8）：随机剔除15%样本
		Estimate	S.E.	z	P>\|z\|	下限	上限
普惠金融指数	X1	0.95***	0.18	5.18	0.00	0.59	1.31
户主性别	X2	0.46	0.34	1.36	0.17	-0.20	1.12
户主年龄	X3	-0.01**	0.07	-2.00	0.05	-0.03	0.00
户主受教育程度	X4	0.06***	0.23	2.46	0.01	0.11	0.10
户主是否有社会经历	X5	0.66***	0.25	2.65	0.01	0.17	1.15
家庭人口数	X6	0.04	0.05	0.74	0.46	-0.07	0.14
家庭收入	X7	-0.12***	0.02	-6.53	0.00	-0.15	-0.08
宅基地面积	X8	-0.00**	0.00	-2.03	0.04	-0.00	-0.00
宅基地是否确权	X9	1.21***	0.40	2.99	0.00	0.42	1.99
是否了解退出政策	X10	0.18**	0.07	2.31	0.02	0.03	0.31
常数项	cons	-0.23	0.66	-0.34	0.73	-1.53	1.07
—	Cut 1	-1.85	0.44
—	Cut 2	-0.90	0.44
—	Cut 3	0.14	0.44
—	Cut 4	0.88	0.43

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