碳交易政策对高污染工业企业经济绩效的影响——基于多重中介效应模型的实证分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.09.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Taking China’s carbon trading policy introduced in 2011 as a natural exogenous shock, this study used the micro-enterprise data from 2010 to 2018 to construct a quasi-natural experiment. The triple difference model and multiple mediating effect models were used to examine the impact of this policy on the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises, and to verify whether carbon trading policies can achieve economic dividends and its transmission mechanisms. The results show that: (1) Carbon trading policy significantly improves the economic performance of high-pollution industrial enterprises and realizes economic dividends. (2) Mechanism test shows that the carbon trading policy can indirectly affect the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises through the low-carbon subsidy support effect, corporate benefit incentive effect and R&D innovation dynamic effect. Enterprise benefit incentive effect and innovation motivation effect show positive effects, while the support effect of low-carbon subsidies shows a concealing effect. (3) The heterogeneity analysis shows that, in terms of the overall effect, carbon trading policy has a better effect on the economic performance of non-state-owned enterprises and small-scale enterprises. As for the mediating effect, the whole mediation effect of carbon trading policy on the economic performance of state-owned enterprises and large-scale enterprises is obvious, and there are only some significant parallel and chain-mediated mediation effects on the economic performance of non-state-owned enterprises and small-scale enterprises. This study makes a beneficial supplement to the theoretical construction of China’s carbon market from a micro perspective, and provides data support and policy suggestions for the differentiated implementation of carbon trading policies and the design of emission reduction and efficiency enhancement mechanism for highly polluting industrial enterprises.

Key words: carbon emissions trading, corporate economic performance, Difference-in-difference-in-difference Model, Multiple Mediating Effect Model

REN Xiaosong, MA Qian, LIU Yujia, ZHAO Guohao. The impact of carbon trading policy on the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises：Empirical analysis based on multiple mediating effect model[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1750-1763.

Figures/Tables 7

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Estimation results of difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) models of carbon trading policy effect on economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises"

	Ea				Roa
	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）	（7）	（8）
$are a r × tim e t × industr y j$	1.994*** (4.58)	2.211*** (4.14)	1.602*** (3.56)	1.935*** (3.38)	2.274*** (5.45)	2.414*** (4.26)	1.890*** (4.18)	2.037*** (3.46)
控制变量	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
个体固定效应	Y	Y		Y	Y	Y		Y
时间固定效应	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
地区 $×$ 时间趋势固定效应		Y	Y	Y		Y	Y	Y
行业 $×$ 时间趋势固定效应			Y	Y			Y	Y
常数项	-43.17*** (-7.45)	135.6 (0.42)	-27.8*** (-5.81)	222.0 (0.31)	-43.65*** (-7.85)	81.01 (0.22)	-29.0*** (-6.02)	-125.9 (-0.18)
R-square	0.153	0.002	0.251	0.001	0.177	0.001	0.285	0.001
N	3114	3114	3114	3114	3114	3114	3114	3114

Table 3

Table 4

Mechanism analysis of the multiple mediating effect of carbon trading policy on the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises"

变量		Ea	Roa
总体中介效应		0.235** [0.017,0.450]	0.226** [0.002,0.443]
并行中介效应	Lcs ( $a 1 b 1$ )	-0.058** [-0.101,-0.020]	-0.071** [-0.122,-0.031]
	Cash ( $a 2 b 2$ )	0.210** [0.001,0.426]	0.211** [0.001,0.433]
	R&D ( $a 3 b 3$ )	0.034** [0.005,0.079]	0.037** [0.005,0.078]
链式中介效应	Lcs→ Cash ( $a 1 d 1 b 2$ )	0.049** [0.026,0.080]	0.049** [0.027,0.082]
	Lcs→ R&D ( $a 1 d 2 b 3$ )	0.004** [0.001,0.011]	0.004** [0.001,0.011]
	Cash→ R&D ( $a 2 d 3 b 3$ )	-0.003** [-0.010,-0.001]	-0.004** [-0.10,-0.001]
	Lcs→ Cash→ R&D ( $a 1 d 1 d 3 b 3$ )	-0.001** [-0.002,-0.001]	-0.001** [-0.002,-0.001]

Table 4

Table 5

Heterogeneity analysis of carbon trading policy effect on economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises"

变量	企业所有制		企业规模
变量	国有企业	非国有企业	大规模企业	小规模企业
$are a r × tim e t × industr y j$	1.782*** (3.43)	2.618** (2.27)	1.485** (2.31)	2.655*** (3.07)
控制变量	Y	Y	Y	Y
个体固定效应	Y	Y	Y	Y
时间固定效应	Y	Y	Y	Y
地区 $×$ 时间趋势固定效应	Y	Y	Y	Y
行业 $×$ 时间趋势固定效应	Y	Y	Y	Y
常数项	-43.16 (-0.09)	-68.33 (-0.04)	145.2 (0.22)	-347.0 (-0.30)
R-square	0.014	0.031	0.010	0.014
N	1903	1211	1422	1692

Table 5

Table 6

Heterogeneity analysis of the multiple mediating effect of carbon trading policy on the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises"

变量		企业所有制		企业规模
变量		国有企业	非国有企业	大规模企业	小规模企业
总体中介效应		0.370** [0.147,0.617]	0.277 [-0.140,0.620]	0.534** [0.257,0.847]	0.187 [-0.180,0.547]
总体中介效应	Lcs ( $a 1 b 1$ )	-0.119** [-0.120,-0.058]	0.114** [0.033,0.240]	-0.126** [-0.238,-0.059]	0.050** [0.001,0.143]
	Cash ( $a 2 b 2$ )	0.443** [0.213,0.679]	-0.024 [-0.425,0.314]	0.619** [0.353,0.935]	-0.090 [-0.426,0.245]
	R&D ( $a 3 b 3$ )	0.002 [-0.010,0.027]	0.161** [0.062,0.329]	0.004 [-0.007,0.044]	0.206** [0.113,0.355]
链式中介效应	Lcs→ Cash ( $a 1 d 1 b 2$ )	0.045** [0.017,0.082]	0.028** [0.008,0.066]	0.036 [-0.001,0.082]	0.011** [0.001,0.031]
	Lcs→ R&D ( $a 1 d 2 b 3$ )	0.003 [-0.001,0.012]	-0.003 [-0.024,0.006]	-0.001 [-0.006,0.001]	0.008** [0.001,0.020]
	Cash→ R&D ( $a 2 d 3 b 3$ )	-0.004 [-0.012,0.002]	-0.001 [-0.011,0.004]	0.002 [-0.004,0.010]	0.003 [-0.007,0.016]
	Lcs→ Cash→ R&D ( $a 1 d 1 d 3 b 3$ )	-0.001 [-0.001,0.01]	0.001 [-0.001,0.002]	0.001 [-0.001,0.001]	-0.001** [-0.001,-0.0002]

Table 6

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变量		均值		误差率 %	误差变动率 %	T检验
变量		对照组	实验组	误差率 %	误差变动率 %	t value	p>\|t\|
lnass	匹配前	22.986	22.635	23.2	92.0	5.14	0.000
lnass	匹配后	22.998	22.969	1.9	92.0	0.31	0.758
asslia	匹配前	48.200	50.182	-10.2	96.1	-2.14	0.033
asslia	匹配后	48.219	48.141	0.4	96.1	0.07	0.945
share	匹配前	35.944	37.955	-12.4	73.7	-2.62	0.009
share	匹配后	36.044	35.514	3.3	73.7	0.60	0.551
tbq	匹配前	2.246	1.941	17.7	87.0	4.19	0.000
tbq	匹配后	2.160	2.120	-2.3	87.0	-0.46	0.644
owner	匹配前	0.560	0.632	-14.6	87.0	-3.11	0.002
owner	匹配后	0.562	0.571	-1.9	87.0	-0.33	0.742

	DID				PSM-DID
	Ea		Roa		Ea		Roa
	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）	（7）	（8）
did	1.959*** （3.69）	1.911*** （3.86）	2.174*** （4.37）	2.117*** （4.60）	2.024*** （2.98）	1.915*** （3.10）	2.314*** （3.66）	2.208*** （3.87）
lnass		2.577*** （7.54）		2.512*** （7.91）		3.630*** （9.01）		3.450*** （9.27）
asslia		-0.190*** （-15.65）		-0.186*** （-16.49）		-0.202*** （-13.46）		-0.197*** （-14.23）
share		0.033* （1.73）		0.030* （1.69）		0.034 （1.47）		0.030 （1.39）
tbq		0.846*** （7.70）		0.841*** （8.24）		1.655*** （9.93）		1.617*** （10.51）
owner		0.591 （0.49）		0.133 （0.12）		1.099 （0.82）		0.658 （0.53）
个体固定效应	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
时间固定效应	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
常数项	4.672*** （14.70）	-47.15*** （-6.21）	5.278*** （17.72）	-44.86*** （-6.35）	4.925*** （11.99）	-72.98*** （-8.13）	5.529*** （14.44）	-68.05*** （-8.21）
R-square	0.020	0.131	0.027	0.159	0.020	0.125	0.025	0.152
N	2214	2214	2214	2214	1688	1688	1688	1688

The impact of carbon trading policy on the economic performance of highly polluting industrial enterprises：Empirical analysis based on multiple mediating effect model

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