全球农产品贸易的虚拟耕地资源流动演变及影响因素

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.09.06

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the effects of agricultural trade on land resources, this study analyzes the evolution of virtual land trade in relation to global agricultural trade, and reveals the driven factors behind the change trend by the trade gravity equation at the basis of virtual land calculation during 1986 to 2016. The results show that: the volume of global virtual land trade has increased by 1.74 times during 1986 to 2016, oil crops substitute the cereals and became the major categories of land exchange. The volume of virtual land exports increased rapidly in countries with abundant land resources, and countries with scarce land resources and rapid economic development became land importers. Population size, per capita income and trade agreements had a significant promoting effect on virtual land flow, but the impact of income varied in different economic development countries. The land and water resource endowment of the importers had a significant negative effect on the flow of virtual land, and the geographical distance between trading countries had a significant negative effect on the flow of virtual land. China has become the world’s largest importer of virtual land since 2004, and the volume of its virtual land import will continue to increase with the increase of income and shortage of agricultural resources. Thus China should take corresponding measures to ensure the sustainable supply of virtual land.

Key words: evolution, driving factors, virtual land resources, agricultural trade, trade gravity model, global

QIANG Wenli, ZHANG Cuiling, LIU Aimin, CHENG Shengkui, WANG Xiang, LI Fan. Evolution of global virtual land flow related to agricultural trade and driving factors[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1704-1714.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 30

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农产品类别	农产品种类
谷物	小麦、玉米、稻米、小米、大麦、荞麦、高粱、燕麦、黑麦
油料	大豆、油棕榈、花生、向日葵、亚麻籽、油菜籽、芝麻、油橄榄
纤维	皮棉、黄麻、剑麻、苎麻、亚麻
糖料	甘蔗、甜菜
薯类	木薯、马铃薯、甜薯、山药、根和块茎
果蔬	苹果、菠萝、草莓、桃子、西瓜、香蕉、樱桃、梨、芒果、猕猴桃、木瓜、柠檬、葡萄、杏子、牛油果、蓝莓、无花果、橙子、李子、大蒜、洋葱、西红柿、萝卜、西蓝花、黄瓜、茴芹、生姜、卷心菜、辣椒、竹笋、生菜、茄子、豆类
嗜好类	茶叶、咖啡、可可
畜禽类	猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、牛奶及其制品

变量名称	变量选取	数据来源	预期系数符号
人均GDP	1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国人均GDP	世界银行（https://data.worldbank.org/）	输入国：+ 输出国：-
人口数量	1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国人口数量	世界银行（https://data.worldbank.org/）	输入国：+ 输出国：-
农用地面积	1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国农用地面积	世界银行（https://data.worldbank.org/）	输入国：- 输出国：+
可更新淡水资源量	1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国人均可更新淡水资源量	世界银行（https://data.worldbank.org/）	输入国：- 输出国：+
国家距离	输入国与输出国首都（首府）间距离	法国CEPII 数据库（http://www.cepii.fr/）	-
相邻关系	输入国与输出国是否相邻	法国CEPII 数据库（http://www.cepii.fr/）	+
贸易协定	输入国与输出国是否加入同一区域贸易协定	法国CEPII 数据库（http://www.cepii.fr/）	+

变量	模型(1)	模型(2)	模型(3)
出口国人均GDP（Gdp_e）	0.403***	0.329***	0.277***
	(0.0103)	(0.00894)	(0.00938)
进口国人均GDP（Gdp_i）	0.362***	0.342***	0.372***
	(0.00806)	(0.00713)	(0.00719)
出口国人口数量（Pop_e）	0.623***	0.102***	0.158***
	(0.00789)	(0.00957)	(0.0110)
进口国人口数量（Pop_i）	0.635***	0.839***	0.788***
	(0.00941)	(0.0114)	(0.0121)
出口国农用地面积（Land_e）		0.606***	0.573***
		(0.00802)	(0.00873)
进口国农用地面积（Land_i)		-0.169***	-0.112***
		(0.00568)	(0.00743)
出口国人均可更新淡水资源量（Water_e）			0.165***
			(0.00806)
进口国人均可更新淡水资源量（Water_i）			-0.138***
			(0.00640)
地理距离（Dis）	-0.227***	-0.479***	-0.506***
	(0.0167)	(0.0151)	(0.0150)
是否相邻（Conti）	1.024***	0.613***	0.580***
	(0.0373)	(0.0365)	(0.0386)
是否签订贸易协定（RTA）	0.283***	0.370***	0.440***
	(0.0301)	(0.0285)	(0.0289)
常数项（Constant）	-23.55***	-20.59***	-20.88***
	(0.421)	(0.382)	(0.404)
样本数（Observations）	216491	211908	202212
R²	0.215	0.312	0.324

Evolution of global virtual land flow related to agricultural trade and driving factors

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