Resources Science ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 775-789.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.04.14

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Risk assessment of water resource security in China

LIANG Yuanyi1, LV Aifeng2,3   

  1. 1. College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2018-11-23 Revised:2018-12-12 Published:2019-04-25

Abstract: Water resource security risk assessment is an important foundation of water resource risk management. In this paper, based on the definition of water resource security, we combine disaster system theory and risk theory to construct the risk assessment index system of water resources security and the risk assessment model of water resource security. The subjective AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and objective entropy weight method combined with the optimal combination of deviation square sum weighting method were proposed to determine the index comprehensive weight. And then, the risk level of water resource security of each province was calculated by coupling the above methods and combining with relevant data indexes which were obtained in China’s statistical yearbook, each provincial water resources bulletin and some water resources security research results in recent years. And extreme high risk level, high risk level, moderate risk level, low risk level and extreme low risk level of water resources security risk were calculated through the natural break classification method. Finally, the types of water resource security risks in each research unit with extreme high risk level, high risk level, and moderate risk level were calcounted based on hazard indicators. The water resources security risk statistical results show that the risk of water resources shortage is identified in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Ningxia, and Gansu provinces. Risk of water quality is found in Shanghai, Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Jilin, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi provinces. Drought risks is characterized in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Gansu, Hainan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces. Flood risk is exhibited in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Through different risk types of water resources security some risk preventive and controllable measures are proposed to manage China’s water resources security scientifically to remit and solve the water resources security risk level of each research unit.

Key words: water resource security, risk assessment, weight, assessment index system, risk prevention and control, China