农业气象台站玉米生育期的填补及对比分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.01.16

Abstract

Abstract:

Accurate data of growth period are the basis for crop growth and production process information service. The crop growth period data recorded by agricultural meteorological include a lot of growth stage period information missing. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai summer maize area as an example, this study calculated the accumulated temperature distribution ratio combining with the daily average temperature, and filled the information of the missing stage from 2002 to 2011. Ultimately this method filled the original growth period data of 13.8%, and the error of filling method was characterized. The results demonstrated that the errors in different growth stages were inconsistent, of which the error in milky maturity stage and maturity stage was the largest. In order to compare the difference between the growth period data of agricultural meteorological stations and the national maize regional test data, a variety of interpolation methods were applied to the two sets of data. By comparing MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), we chosen the Ordinary Kriging method. We compared the interpolated insults and defined difference values between [0, 5] indicating a small difference, large difference at (5, 10], and extremely difference at (10, +∞). Our result shows that, with the exception of 2006 and 2007, the majority of the two sets growth period data difference are limited, in which the difference between the two sets of growth period data was the least appeared in 2003, 2005. The difference between the two sets of growth period data was the largest in 2006. In terms of average of multiple years, there is not a significant difference in most parts of the study area, accounting for 53% of the total number of the agricultural meteorological stations. This study can be used in the filling and comparison of growth stages data in other maize growing areas or other crops.

Key words: Huang-Huai-Hai summer maize area, growth period, regional test, spatial interpolation, comparative analysis

Zhe LIU, Xuli ZAN, Wei LIU, Diyou LIU, Shaoming LI, Xiaodong ZHANG, Dehai ZHU. Filling and comparison of the growth period data of agricultural meteorological stations[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(1): 176-184.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 33

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数据来源	总体记录	出苗记录	成熟记录
农气站点数据（填补前）	3 104	346	412
农气站点数据（填补后）	3 532	452	458

填补方法	评估指标	总体误差	出苗期	三叶期	七叶期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期
积温比例模型	MAE	2.77	1.62	1.40	2.56	2.82	3.20	4.18	3.31
积温比例模型	RMSE	3.69	1.88	1.82	3.40	3.29	4.46	5.20	4.10
线性内插	MAE	7.10	3.77	5.32	6.80	8.18	6.52	8.39	8.60
线性内插	RMSE	9.24	4.73	7.14	9.36	10.28	8.27	11.46	10.75

插值方法	MAE	RMSE
多元逐步回归法	3.86	4.72
RBF	4.46	5.68
IDW	3.64	4.74
OK	3.41	4.36

Filling and comparison of the growth period data of agricultural meteorological stations

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