中国天然气安全评价及影响因素分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.12.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Studying the security state of China's natural gas, analyzing the influencing factors, and finding the systematic coping strategies are of great significance for promoting China's sustainable economic and social development and ensuring China's energy security. Based on the historical background of ecological civilization construction and energy structure adjustment, this current study constructs the security evaluation index system of China's natural gas security state from the four dimensions of security of supply, storage and transportation, market, and environment and uses the combination weighting method to carry out index empowerment. China's natural gas security has been evaluated in terms of overall, regional, and provincial aspects. The overall evaluation results show that the average national natural gas security is 0.546. Although the natural gas security level has been rising from 2006 to 2015, the overall security state is general. The results of regional evaluation show that the average security of natural gas in the four major regions in China is 0.582 in the east, 0.571 in the central area, 0.516 in the west, and 0.515 in the northeast, presenting the characteristics of “the best in the east, the second in the central area, the poor in the west and northeast. ” The results of provincial evaluation illustrate a great difference in the security levels of natural gas in different provinces. Among them, there are seven provinces rising, five provinces declining, eight provinces fluctuating greatly, and ten provinces stabilizing. The provinces have met obvious spatial agglomeration effects on security of supply, storage and transportation, market and environment. Finally, proposed from the national, regional, and provincial levels, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for guaranteeing China's natural gas security.

Key words: natural gas, security evaluation, impact factors, combination weighting method, China

Mingjing GUO, Yan BU, Congxi CHEN, Rui QI. Assessment of natural gas security and its impact factors in China[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(12): 2425-2437.

Figures/Tables 6

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Natural gas comprehensive security evaluation results by province in China from 2006 to 2015"

区域	年份										均值	排名
区域	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	均值	排名
北京	0.600	0.607	0.618	0.612	0.610	0.619	0.621	0.624	0.625	0.631	0.617	5
天津	0.589	0.584	0.589	0.592	0.585	0.578	0.591	0.591	0.576	0.556	0.583	10
河北	0.544	0.539	0.529	0.537	0.533	0.555	0.547	0.554	0.554	0.549	0.544	15
上海	0.663	0.658	0.661	0.665	0.667	0.674	0.677	0.676	0.678	0.697	0.672	1
江苏	0.578	0.601	0.597	0.609	0.627	0.632	0.639	0.646	0.649	0.656	0.623	2
浙江	0.509	0.560	0.578	0.586	0.573	0.575	0.586	0.588	0.592	0.592	0.574	11
福建	0.528	0.534	0.537	0.467	0.506	0.530	0.545	0.534	0.541	0.551	0.527	18
山东	0.581	0.597	0.607	0.599	0.612	0.631	0.628	0.652	0.647	0.631	0.618	3
广东	0.531	0.505	0.546	0.526	0.555	0.707	0.705	0.706	0.708	0.685	0.617	4
海南	0.482	0.482	0.465	0.467	0.453	0.413	0.405	0.424	0.420	0.453	0.446	30
东部均值	0.560	0.567	0.573	0.566	0.572	0.591	0.595	0.599	0.599	0.600	0.582
山西	0.533	0.537	0.580	0.519	0.500	0.510	0.508	0.504	0.486	0.502	0.518	21
安徽	0.663	0.630	0.613	0.615	0.584	0.570	0.579	0.590	0.586	0.586	0.602	8
江西	0.505	0.560	0.531	0.555	0.537	0.563	0.559	0.556	0.563	0.581	0.551	14
河南	0.555	0.559	0.557	0.561	0.562	0.565	0.560	0.569	0.574	0.574	0.564	13
湖北	0.559	0.593	0.570	0.583	0.589	0.591	0.593	0.605	0.594	0.602	0.588	9
湖南	0.567	0.583	0.615	0.606	0.610	0.612	0.604	0.619	0.610	0.601	0.603	7
中部均值	0.564	0.577	0.578	0.573	0.564	0.568	0.567	0.574	0.569	0.574	0.571
广西	0.480	0.509	0.499	0.496	0.497	0.505	0.505	0.501	0.496	0.515	0.500	24
重庆	0.529	0.521	0.522	0.522	0.523	0.530	0.532	0.538	0.528	0.533	0.528	17
四川	0.588	0.613	0.616	0.598	0.578	0.603	0.609	0.624	0.619	0.628	0.608	6
贵州	0.474	0.474	0.491	0.487	0.493	0.490	0.489	0.484	0.501	0.502	0.488	26
云南	0.525	0.520	0.522	0.491	0.506	0.508	0.511	0.517	0.500	0.503	0.510	23
陕西	0.564	0.554	0.550	0.563	0.555	0.561	0.573	0.576	0.591	0.585	0.567	12
甘肃	0.497	0.505	0.519	0.518	0.517	0.521	0.519	0.521	0.526	0.519	0.516	22
青海	0.508	0.538	0.500	0.505	0.485	0.459	0.446	0.443	0.447	0.427	0.476	28
宁夏	0.500	0.503	0.462	0.448	0.469	0.446	0.462	0.475	0.491	0.476	0.473	29
新疆	0.512	0.517	0.527	0.531	0.529	0.520	0.529	0.522	0.505	0.521	0.521	19
内蒙古	0.394	0.454	0.509	0.465	0.474	0.510	0.494	0.482	0.484	0.502	0.477	27
西部均值	0.506	0.519	0.520	0.511	0.512	0.514	0.515	0.517	0.517	0.519	0.516
辽宁	0.520	0.509	0.501	0.502	0.498	0.479	0.478	0.483	0.489	0.513	0.497	25
吉林	0.541	0.522	0.518	0.517	0.508	0.513	0.513	0.518	0.523	0.532	0.520	20
黑龙江	0.531	0.525	0.520	0.520	0.529	0.526	0.532	0.530	0.531	0.536	0.528	16
东北均值	0.531	0.519	0.513	0.513	0.512	0.506	0.508	0.510	0.514	0.527	0.515
全国均值	0.538	0.546	0.548	0.542	0.542	0.550	0.551	0.555	0.554	0.558	0.546

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标说明	属性	综合权重
中国天然气安全评价指标体系	供应安全（0.352 3）	供气能力	天然气供气总量	+	0.066 1
		外省依存度	外省天然气调入量与天然气消费量的比值	-	0.062 2
		进口依存度	区域天然气进出口差值与天然气消费量的比值	-	0.059 3
		人均天然气产量	区域天然气产量与用气人口的比值	+	0.058 6
		气源保障率	天然气供气量与天然气消费量的比值	+	0.053 8
		天然气探明储量	反映所在地区已探明的天然气资源量	+	0.052 3
	储运安全（0.250 1）	储运设施建设成本	采用地区人口密度来代替,人口密度大（小）成本低（高）	+	0.063 9
		人均储气能力	储气能力与用气人口比值	+	0.064 7
		人均管道长度	天然气供气管道长度与用气人口比值	+	0.062 2
		供储比	供气能力与储气能力的比值	-	0.059 3
	市场安全（0.296 7）	天然气价格指数	以各地区2005年天然气价格为基期算得	-	0.057 7
		能源消费比	天然气消费量与能源消费总量的比值	-	0.040 7
		天然气消费增长率	天然气消费量较之上一年的增长率	-	0.049 4
		用气人口增长率	当年天然气用气人口与上年天然气用气人口比值-1	-	0.045 6
		万元GDP天然气消耗量	天然气消费量与地区GDP的比值	-	0.056 5
		燃气普及率	城区用气人口与城区人口及城区暂住人口之和的比值	-	0.046 8
	环境安全（0.100 9）	人均SO₂排放量	SO₂排放量与总人口的比值	-	0.052 7
	环境安全（0.100 9）	万元GDP碳排量	每万元GDP所产生的碳排放量	-	0.048 2

评价维度	地区	年份										均值
评价维度	地区	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	均值
供应安全	东部	0.323	0.325	0.335	0.340	0.352	0.395	0.409	0.419	0.426	0.433	0.376
	中部	0.325	0.333	0.336	0.332	0.320	0.329	0.335	0.349	0.345	0.365	0.337
	西部	0.327	0.337	0.340	0.330	0.334	0.348	0.360	0.372	0.383	0.384	0.351
	东北	0.274	0.264	0.258	0.262	0.266	0.262	0.276	0.274	0.278	0.281	0.269
	全国	0.320	0.325	0.329	0.327	0.330	0.351	0.363	0.373	0.379	0.386	0.348
储运安全	东部	0.355	0.357	0.362	0.352	0.353	0.369	0.366	0.373	0.371	0.365	0.362
	中部	0.350	0.356	0.355	0.344	0.339	0.342	0.339	0.341	0.333	0.336	0.344
	西部	0.274	0.277	0.269	0.268	0.271	0.275	0.278	0.274	0.275	0.284	0.275
	东北	0.269	0.259	0.255	0.256	0.256	0.257	0.255	0.263	0.271	0.281	0.262
	全国	0.316	0.318	0.316	0.310	0.311	0.318	0.317	0.320	0.318	0.321	0.316
市场安全	东部	0.718	0.733	0.731	0.714	0.718	0.712	0.709	0.703	0.696	0.696	0.713
	中部	0.755	0.780	0.774	0.778	0.767	0.770	0.764	0.763	0.761	0.752	0.766
	西部	0.704	0.727	0.726	0.717	0.712	0.709	0.701	0.692	0.683	0.684	0.706
	东北	0.788	0.775	0.767	0.765	0.757	0.747	0.740	0.737	0.735	0.761	0.757
	全国	0.727	0.744	0.741	0.733	0.729	0.726	0.720	0.714	0.708	0.709	0.725
环境安全	东部	0.594	0.596	0.605	0.606	0.606	0.607	0.607	0.613	0.614	0.613	0.606
	中部	0.539	0.540	0.552	0.547	0.548	0.544	0.542	0.548	0.545	0.545	0.545
	西部	0.421	0.425	0.440	0.431	0.427	0.408	0.398	0.405	0.398	0.390	0.414
	东北	0.540	0.536	0.540	0.533	0.532	0.520	0.519	0.535	0.536	0.534	0.533
	全国	0.514	0.516	0.527	0.523	0.521	0.513	0.509	0.516	0.513	0.510	0.516

年份	进口总量 /亿m³	LNG进口量/亿m³	管道天然气进口量/亿m³	进口依存度/%
2013年	534	252	282	31.60
2014年	584	271	313	31.01
2015年	614	258	356	31.50

安全等级	供应安全	储运安全	市场安全	环境安全
好	北京、上海、广东、四川、陕西、新疆	天津、山东、江苏、安徽、湖南、上海	山东、安徽、湖南、贵州、云南	海南、广东、福建、江西、浙江、安徽、江苏、上海、北京
较好	内蒙古、青海、山东、江苏	广西、广东、浙江、湖北、河南、山西、北京	黑龙江、吉林、甘肃、湖北、河南、河北、江苏、浙江、江西	四川、云南、广西、湖南、湖北、河南、山东、天津、吉林、黑龙江
一般	黑龙江、甘肃、宁夏、山西、河北、天津、湖南、湖北、江西、浙江、重庆、安徽、河南	四川、重庆、陕西、宁夏、江西、福建、海南、河北、辽宁、吉林	内蒙古、辽宁、宁夏、山西、陕西、北京、四川、重庆、广西、广东、福建、天津、上海	甘肃、陕西、重庆、河北、辽宁
很差	辽宁、吉林、云南、贵州、广西、海南、福建	甘肃、青海、新疆、贵州、云南、内蒙古、黑龙江	新疆、青海、海南	新疆、青海、内蒙古、山西、宁夏、贵州

Assessment of natural gas security and its impact factors in China

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