江西省农业人口转移对城市建设用地增加的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.08.03

Abstract

Abstract:

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the area of urban construction land has been increasing, when a large number of agricultural population keep transferring to cities. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of agricultural population transfer on the growth of urban construction land,which is of great significance for promoting the construction of new urbanization and achieving the real transfer of agricultural population.Based on the statistical data of 11 cities in Jiangxi province from 2006 to 2015,the fixed effect and the random effect model were used to study the influence of the agricultural population transfer on the increase of urban total construction land and different types of urban construction land. The results show that the transfer of agricultural population in Jiangxi had a significant positive impact on the growth of urban construction land, and passed the test under one percent level. What's more, the transfer of agricultural population also exerted significant effects on the growths of urban industrial-commercial land, urban residential land and traffic-green-square land, and quite obvious in the scope of ten percent,one percent and five percent respectively, and the influence coefficients correspondingly were 0.167, 0.155, and 0.135. However, with the transfer of agricultural population, there has been no significant growth in urban public facilities-service land.There are regional differences among different cities, when the increase of different types of construction lands are impacted by the agricultural population transfer.Thus, it is concluded that the transfer of agricultural population will enhance the total amount of urban construction land. Thus, according to the process of agricultural population transfer, the government should moderately increase the urban public facilities land, rationally layout different types of urban construction land, for effectively promoting the construction of new urbanization and finally realizing the urbanization of agricultural population.

Key words: agricultural population transfer, growth of urban construction land, urbanization, fixed effect model, random effect model, Jiangxi Province

Xiuqing ZOU, Meihui XIE, Zegan XIAO, Xiaosong TU, Yan WANG, Guoliang XU. An empirical study on the influence of agricultural population transfer on urban construction land increase in Jiangxi Province[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(8): 1515-1525.

Figures/Tables 3

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References 58

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变量分类	变量代码	指标特征	计算方法
被解释变量	城市总建设用地增加（UCL）	城市建成区面积增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市居住用地增加（RL）	城市居住用地增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市工商用地增加（IC）	城市工业、商业服务业用地增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市交通绿地广场增加（TGS）	城市交通、道路、绿地广场增加量/km²	自然对数
	城市公共设施用地增加（GS）	城市公共设施用地增加量/km²	自然对数
解释变量	农业人口转移（POP）	每年城区人口增加-每年城区自然增长/人	自然对数
控制变量	城市经济发展水平（EDP）	年鉴地区人均GDP×100/当年CPI价格指数/元	自然对数
	固定资产投资（INV）	固定资产投资/万元	自然对数
	产业结构调整（INDS）	第三产业产值/第二产业产值/%	比值
	城市人均绿地（AGL）	城市人均绿地面积/km²	自然对数

	居住用地		工商用地		交通绿地广场用地		公共设施用地
	固定效应		固定效应		随机效应		固定效应
	β 值	t 值	β 值	t 值	β 值	z 值	β 值	t 值
农业人口转移（POP）	0.155***	3.20	0.167*	2.02	0.135**	2.23	0.154	1.71
城市经济发展水平（EDP）	0.123	0.26	1.060**	2.28	-0.071	-0.47	-1.060*	-1.85
固定资产投资（INV）	0.041	0.16	-1.212***	-4.27	0.487***	3.61	0.661	0.21
产业结构调整（INDS）	0.901	0.75	0.534	0.49	0.407	0.42	1.420	1.74
城市人均绿地（AGL）	-0.860*	-2.16	0.917	1.27	-0.256	-0.54	0.897*	2.49
常数项	0.503	0.28	6.134	5.93	-6.006	-3.57	6.259	2.57
样本量	120		120		120		120
模型修正结果	Driscoll & Kraay		Driscoll & Kraay		聚类稳健		聚类稳健
hausman检验P值	0.019		0.000		0.961		0.002
R²	0.063		0.088		0.210		0.137
F统计量	23.010		22.760		52.850		11.720
F检验P值	0.000		0.000		0.000		0.000

	城市总建设用地增量		城市总建设用地增量(修正后)
	固定效应		固定效应
	β 值	t 值	β 值	t 值
农业人口转移（POP）	0.260***	3.84	0.260***	4.34
城市经济发展水平（EDP）	0.619	1.26	0.619*	2.19
固定资产投资（INV）	-0.514	-1.45	-0.514*	-2.18
产业结构调整（INDS）	-1.232	-1.20	-1.232**	-2.49
城市人均绿地（AGL）	0.258	0.49	0.258	1.02
常数项	3.193	1.47	3.193	2.22
样本量	120		120
模型修正结果	未修正		Driscoll & Kraay
hausman检验P值	0.000		0.000
R²	0.141		0.141
F统计量	2.830		9.310
F检验P值	0.014		0.001

An empirical study on the influence of agricultural population transfer on urban construction land increase in Jiangxi Province

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