基于熵权TOPSIS法的中国区域能源安全评价及差异分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.03.02

Abstract

Abstract:

In many regions in China, energy shortages (e.g. coal, oil, gas and electricity) are common. There are signs that regional energy security remains an important issue in the development of China and cannot be ignored. Here, we construct a corresponding index system of regional energy security from four aspects: regional energy supply, use, economic and environmental safety in China. The weight of the index is determined by the entropy method, overcoming the subjectivity of the traditional weighting method, and the TOPSIS evaluation method is used to quantitatively evaluate energy security of provinces. The results show that China’s regional energy security is generally low. The energy security value is higher than the national average for only Shanxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and six other provinces, accounting for 30% of provinces. The remaining 21 provinces have lower than average energy security. Energy security in China shows a gradual decrease from the northwest to southeast. In northwest provinces, energy reserves are abundant and energy consumption is relatively low, resulting in high energy security. Energy savings in the eastern and central provinces are scarce and energy consumption is huge, leading to low energy security. Several policy recommendations are discussed, including optimizing energy structure and increasing diversification of energy to improve supply stability, increasing research investment and improving energy efficiency, reducing and diversifying energy consumption, paying attention to environmental protection investment and lessening environmental pollution.

Key words: regional energy security, methods of entropy-weight and TOPSIS, safety evaluation, difference analysis

Han SUN, Feifei NIE, Xueyuan HU. Evaluation and difference analysis of regional energy security in China based on entropy-weight TOPSIS modeling[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(3): 477-485.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1

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Table 3

Figure 1

Table 4

References 29

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	度量层	指标层	单位	定义	作用方向
中国区域能源安全指标体系	供应安全	自给率（X1）	%	反映区域能源生产与消费之比的指数	+
		储量比（X2）	%	反映区域各种类能源基础储量占全国能源基础储量的指数	+
		能源生产多样化指数（X3）	-	反映区域能源生产构成多元化程度的一个指数	+
		对外依存度（X4）	%	反映区域各种类能源生产量占能源消费总量的指数	–
		人均能源产量（X5）	万t/人	反映区域人口生产能源的数量	+
	使用安全	能源强度（X6）	-	反映能源强度是能源利用与经济或物力产出之比	–
		能源消费多样化指数（X7）	-	反映区域能源生产构成多元化程度的一个指数	–
		人均能源消费量（X8）	万t/人	反映区域人口消费能源的数量	+
		电力消费量（X9）	亿kWh	反映区域电力消费总量	-
	经济安全	能源工业投资（X10）	万元	反映区域能源工业的投资量	+
		节能与环境保护投入量（X11）	万元	反映区域对能源节约与环境保护的投资量	+
		科研投入量（X12）	万元	反映区域对科学技术的投资量	+
	环境安全	人均废水排放量（X13）	万t	反映区域人均产生的废水量	–
		空气API（X14）	-	反映区域工业生产导致的空气质量程度	–
		人均废物排放量（X15）	万t	反映区域人均产生的固体废弃物量	–
		万元GDP碳耗（X16）	-	反映区域每万元GDP所产生的碳排放量	-

指标	权重	正理想解	负理想解	指标	权重	正理想解	负理想解
自给率	0.083 3	0.046 6	0.000 1	电力消费量	0.057 5	0.037 0	0.001 9
储量比	0.059 0	0.049 3	0.000 0	能源工业投入	0.070 1	0.030 1	0.001 3
能源生产多元化指数	0.075 1	0.017 4	0.000 9	节能环保投入	0.069 0	0.024 9	0.002 4
对外依存度	0.040 7	0.017 0	-0.023 9	科研投入量	0.066 3	0.041 4	0.000 8
人均能源产量	0.084 3	0.052 4	0.000 1	人均废物排放量	0.025 2	0.014 3	0.000 2
能源强度	0.041 9	0.021 9	0.001 6	空气质量指数	0.032 4	0.014 8	0.001 0
能源消费多元化指数	0.072 6	0.014 0	0.005 3	人均废水排放量	0.046 8	0.015 2	0.004 2
人均能源消费量	0.052 6	0.015 2	0.003 3	万元GDP碳耗	0.041 9	0.021 9	0.001 6

地区	D⁺	D^-	地区	D⁺	D^-	地区	D⁺	D^-
北京	0.110 0	0.056 0	浙江	0.113 1	0.047 8	海南	0.114 5	0.059 2
天津	0.109 2	0.048 1	安徽	0.116 0	0.044 2	重庆	0.111 8	0.046 0
河北	0.114 2	0.048 4	福建	0.112 2	0.050 7	四川	0.109 5	0.050 2
山西	0.081 5	0.093 8	江西	0.115 2	0.044 9	贵州	0.104 2	0.047 5
内蒙古	0.083 5	0.083 8	山东	0.108 8	0.049 9	云南	0.109 4	0.048 0
辽宁	0.115 2	0.044 0	河南	0.112 0	0.045 3	陕西	0.089 4	0.075 0
吉林	0.115 4	0.038 9	湖北	0.112 9	0.045 4	甘肃	0.117 0	0.035 7
黑龙江	0.108 3	0.051 0	湖南	0.112 4	0.047 9	青海	0.096 0	0.064 3
上海	0.113 8	0.048 8	广东	0.106 4	0.066 4	宁夏	0.113 4	0.040 6
江苏	0.107 6	0.062 8	广西	0.114 8	0.046 5	新疆	0.088 5	0.086 9

东部地区	供应安全值	使用安全值	经济安全值	环境安全值	西部地区	供应安全值	使用安全值	经济安全值	环境安全值	中部地区	供应安全值	使用安全值	经济安全值	环境安全值
广东	0.295 4	0.255 4	0.735 7	0.146 8	内蒙古	0.596 9	0.057 7	0.357 3	0.090 5	山西	0.642 6	0.101 1	0.371 9	0.072 8
江苏	0.300 2	0.369 8	0.632 6	0.245 2	新疆	0.575 2	0.134 5	0.402 7	0.097 3	黑龙江	0.349 2	0.275 9	0.195 0	0.095 8
海南	0.301 4	0.700 1	0.001 6	0.774 8	陕西	0.519 2	0.219 3	0.307 8	0.087 4	湖南	0.299 6	0.341 1	0.204 9	0.175 5
北京	0.300 3	0.346 5	0.454 5	0.470 8	青海	0.468 1	0.305 5	0.101 7	0.292 3	河南	0.304 0	0.197 9	0.280 3	0.049 3
山东	0.302 1	0.132 4	0.473 1	0.052 2	四川	0.323 7	0.250 7	0.330 6	0.083 7	湖北	0.299 9	0.225 1	0.266 8	0.075 4
福建	0.301 6	0.375 6	0.181 7	0.251 3	贵州	0.347 6	0.238 7	0.141 9	0.125 7	江西	0.297 3	0.318 9	0.130 7	0.112 6
天津	0.327 1	0.310 9	0.178 7	0.222 4	云南	0.317 8	0.250 4	0.254 5	0.125 6	安徽	0.285 1	0.256 4	0.252 1	0.090 7
上海	0.300 6	0.233 4	0.333 0	0.119 5	重庆	0.307 0	0.319 3	0.177 6	0.144 9	吉林	0.253 4	0.360 0	0.169 5	0.105 7
河北	0.301 1	0.096 8	0.378 8	0.027 6	广西	0.305 5	0.278 8	0.142 9	0.121 3
浙江	0.293 2	0.189 2	0.395 7	0.113 5	宁夏	0.294 9	0.246 2	0.116 9	0.226 5
辽宁	0.307 2	0.159 7	0.174 4	0.067 5	甘肃	0.239 7	0.238 9	0.152 4	0.130 6

Evaluation and difference analysis of regional energy security in China based on entropy-weight TOPSIS modeling

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