中国北方农牧交错带贫困动态——基于贫困距离指数的分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.02.16

Abstract

Abstract:

The Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China (APTZNC) is one of the most impoverished areas in China. Accurately assessing poverty dynamics in the APTZNC is of significance to regional sustainable development. We used the poverty gap index to investigate the dynamics of poverty in the APTZNC from 2000 to 2014 at three scales: regional, sub-regional and county scales. The results showed that all impoverished counties were lifted out of poverty from 2000 to 2014 based on the poverty gap index. At the county scale, the number of impoverished counties decreased by 167 from 2000 to 2014, and the population in impoverished counties decreased by 45.70 million. Specifically, the number of impoverished counties decreased from 167 in 2000 to 10 in 2010, a reduction of 94.01%. The population in impoverished counties decreased from 45.70 million in 2000 to 2.73 million in 2010, a reduction of 94.03%. From 2010 to 2014, the number of impoverished counties decreased by 10 and the population in impoverished counties decreased by 2.73 million. We also found that poverty alleviation from 2000 to 2014 was closely related with economic development. Among all indicators, public fiscal revenue had the highest correlation with poverty alleviation (r = -0.51, P < 0.01). Meanwhile, difference in incomes between urban and rural residents in the out-of-poverty areas increased from 4 455.27 CNY in 2000 to 11 104.71 CNY in 2014, a 2.11-fold increase. The coefficient of variation in per-capita rural income among out-of-poverty counties also increased from 0.24 in 2000 to 0.34 in 2014, an increase of 41.67%. Thus, we suggest that special attention should be paid to reducing income inequity during targeted poverty alleviation to ensure sustainable development of the APTZNC.

Key words: Argo-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China, poverty gap index, poverty line, income inequity, targeted poverty alleviation measures, sustainable development

Qiang REN, Chunyang HE, Qingxu HUANG, Zhifeng LIU, Jingwei Li. The poverty dynamics in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China : a multi-scale perspective based on the poverty gap index[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 404-416.

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References 66

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贫困状态		东段	中段	西段	全区
特别贫困	贫困县数量（比例）*	5（16.67%）	19（30.16%）	34（45.94%）	58（34.73%）
	贫困县总人口（比例）**	248.08（19.55%）	418.37（30.70%）	956.26（49.35%）	1 622.72（35.51%）
	贫困县城镇人口/万人	25.94	55.35	77.04	158.33
	贫困县农村人口/万人	222.15	363.02	879.22	1 464.39
中等贫困	贫困县数量（比例）*	16（53.33%）	28（44.44%）	26（35.14%）	70（41.92%）
	贫困县总人口（比例）**	679.42（53.54%）	558.50（40.97%）	631.11（32.57%）	1 869.02（40.90%）
	贫困县城镇人口/万人	149.08	101.35	88.49	338.93
	贫困县农村人口/万人	530.33	457.14	542.62	1530.09
轻微贫困	贫困县数量（比例）*	9（30.00%）	16（25.40%）	14（18.92%）	39（23.35%）
	贫困县总人口（比例）**	341.42（26.91%）	386.22（28.33%）	350.38（18.08%）	1 078.02（23.59%）
	贫困县城镇人口/万人	71.67	74.35	102.45	248.47
	贫困县农村人口/万人	269.75	311.87	247.92	829.54
合计	贫困县数量	30	63	74	167
	贫困县总人口/万人	1 268.92	1 363.09	1 937.75	4 569.76
	贫困县城镇人口/万人	246.69	231.05	267.99	745.73
	贫困县农村人口/万人	1 022.23	1 132.04	1 669.76	3 824.03

时间	贫困状态	东段			中段			西段		全区
时间	贫困状态	贫困县数量减少量		贫困县人口减少量		贫困县数量减少量	贫困县人口减少量	贫困县数量减少量	贫困县人口减少量	贫困县数量减少量	贫困县人口减少量
2000—2010年	特别贫困	5	248.08		19	418.37		34	956.26	58	1 622.72
	中等贫困	16	679.42		28	558.50		22	523.16	66	1 761.07
	轻微贫困	9	341.42		14	317.14		10	253.70	33	912.25
	合计	30	1 268.92		61	1 294.00		66	1 733.12	157	4 296.04
2010—2014年	特别贫困	0	0		0	0		0	0	0	0
	中等贫困	0	0		0			0	4		107.95	4	107.95
	轻微贫困	0	0	2		69.09	4		96.68	6	165.76
	合计	0	0	2		69.09	8		204.63	10	273.71
2000—2014年	特别贫困	5	248.08	19	418.37	34	956.26	58	1 622.72
	中等贫困	16	679.42	28		558.50	26		631.11	70	1 869.02
	轻微贫困	9	341.42	16		386.22	14		350.38	39	1 078.02
	合计	30	1 268.92	63		1 363.09	74		1 937.75	167	4 569.76

贫困标准	贫困线（元/年）	2000年贫困状态			2000—2014年贫困动态
贫困标准	贫困线（元/年）	旗县数量^①		人口^①	旗县数量^①	人口^①
2000-2007年中国贫困标准^②	668	-167	-4 569.76		-167	-4 569.76
2008-2010年中国贫困标准^③	1 222	-166	-4 514.42		-166	-4 514.42
2011年中国贫困标准	2 300	-124	-3 381.20		-124	-3 381.20
1美元/天的国际贫困标准	2 225	-130	-3 536.38		-130	-3 536.38
1.25美元/天的国际贫困标准	2 782	-85	-2 394.02		-85	-2 394.02

时间	分类	贫困距离指数/元
时间	分类	国家级贫困县	非国家级贫困县	集中连片特困区	非集中连片特困区
2000年	平均值	1 438.54	-117.69	1 434.44	241.92
	标准差	827.82	1 863.47	977.69	1 735.60
	t检验结果	存在显著性差异,t =-7.074**		存在显著性差异,t =-10.688**
2010年	平均值	-2 837.99	-7 133.68	-2 248.31	-7 081.60
	标准差	2 073.60	4 707.92	1 858.33	4 224.53
	t检验结果	存在显著性差异,t =-8.066**		存在显著性差异,t =-9.816**
2014年	平均值	-5 725.48	-11 043.22	-5 105.36	-10 874.14
	标准差	2 773.40	5 902.57	2 633.09	5 383.78
	t检验结果	存在显著性差异,t =-7.892**		存在显著性差异,t =-6.098**

	2000—2010年	2010—2014年
阶段划分	大规模扶贫阶段	针对性扶贫阶段
核心文件	《中国农村扶贫开发纲要（2001-2010）》	《中国农村扶贫开发纲要（2010-2020）》
扶贫重点	中西部少数民族地区、革命老区、边疆地区和特困地区	集中连片特困区中的贫困重点县
奋斗目标	1）提高贫困地区经济状况 2）解决贫困人口温饱问题	1）推进贫困地区（特别是集中连片特困区）经济发展 2）保障贫困地区人均收入高于区域平均水平 3）缩小贫富差距
脱贫县数量（脱贫率）	157个（94.01%）	10个（100%）
城乡收入差距变化量（变化率）	5 925元/年（132.99%）	3 489元/年（33.61%）
贫困县间人均收入的变异系数变化量（变化率）	0.11（47.17%）	-0.02（-6.02%）

The poverty dynamics in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China : a multi-scale perspective based on the poverty gap index

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指标		全区	东段	中段	西段
人口类	总人口数量	-0.157*	-0.383*	-0.086	-0.147*
	城镇人口数量	-0.495**	-0.446*	-0.496**	-0.505**
	农村人口数量	0.247**	0.247	0.266*	0.241**
经济类	地区生产总值	-0.463**	-0.464**	-0.438**	-0.485**
	第一产业增加值	-0.058	-0.447*	-0.164	-0.067
	第二产业增加值	-0.483**	-0.345	-0.432**	-0.497**
	第三产业增加值	-0.378**	-0.483**	-0.448**	-0.398**
	规模以上工业总产值	-0.365**	-0.350	-0.316*	-0.385**
	规模以上工业企业单位数	-0.361**	-0.447*	-0.344**	-0.435**
	公共财政收入	-0.508**	-0.484**	-0.444**	-0.528**
基础设施建设类	固定资产投资	-0.274**	-0.193	-0.412**	-0.312**
基础设施建设类	年末金融机构各项贷款余额	-0.360**	-0.286	-0.391**	-0.365**

区域	城乡居民收入差			城乡居民收入差变化		城乡居民收入比			城乡居民收入比变化
区域	2000年		2014年		2000—2014年变化量	变化率	2000年	2014年	2000—2014年变化量	变化率
全区	4 455.27	13 868.90		9 413.62	211.29	3.14	2.93		-0.21	-6.69
东段	4 358.25	11 104.74		6 746.49	154.80	3.05	2.27		-0.78	-25.57
中段	4 802.01	13 291.92		8 489.91	176.80	3.29	3.01		-0.28	-8.51
西段	4 230.80	16 440.95		12 210.15	288.60	3.06	3.52		0.46	15.03

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区域	变异系数				变异系数变化
区域	2000年		2010年	2014年	2000—2010年变化量	2010—2014年变化量	2000—2014年变化量
全区	0.24	0.36	0.34		0.12	-0.02	0.10
东段	0.18	0.17	0.18		-0.01	0.01	0.00
中段	0.23	0.29	0.24		0.06	-0.05	0.01
西段	0.27	0.46	0.45		0.19	-0.01	0.18