中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究——基于人均耕地面积视角

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.02.05

Abstract

Abstract:

Land use transitions and socioeconomic transitions jointly drive urban-rural transformation development in China. Given the man-land relationship defined by large populations with relatively little farmland in China, farmland resources are a core element contributing to food security. Therefore, it is of great strategic significance to develop a reasonable policy of farmland protection and promote the modernization of agricultural production via analysis of the law of farmland transition in China. Based on the theory of forest transition, we constructed a theoretical model for farmland transition from the perspective of per capita farmland area (PCFA) change and discussed the changing process of PCFA from continuous decline to gradual increase in the process of urbanization. Based on transitions measured at a 10 km gridded resolution of PCFA across the country, this study found that China’s PCFA transitioned from a gradual decline to a steady rise during 1990—2010. It contains 71% of the farmland coverage area, which basically validates the theoretical model of farmland transition. In addition, we used the spatial econometric regression model to quantitatively identify the driving mechanisms of natural factors, location factors and socioeconomic factors for farmland transition. We found that the role of socioeconomic factors in promoting the farmland transition has been strengthened during the process of urbanization, and there were obvious differences in the driving mechanism for farmland transition in different stages. Theoretical and practical research on farmland transition is the frontier exploration of land use transition. In addition, further study of farmland transition in rural areas provides theoretical guidance for the transformation of agricultural production.

Key words: farmland transition, per capita farmland area, urban-rural transformation development, urbanization, spatial econometric regression model

Dazhuan GE, Hualou LONG, Ren YANG. The pattern and mechanism of farmland transition in China from the perspective of per capita farmland area[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 273-283.

Figures/Tables 6

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列表	变量	描述/单位
因变量	PCFC	人均耕地面积变化率
自变量
自然因素	Elevation	平均海拔/m
自然因素	Slope	平均坡度/°
区位因素	Dis2city	与地级市的最近距离/km
	Dis2river	与主要河流的距离/km
	Dis2railway	与主要铁路的最近距离/km
社会经济因素	PGDP	人均GDP/元
	AIR	灌溉面积占播种面积的比重/%
	CPGDP	人均GDP变化/%
	CAIR	灌溉比率变化/%

	人口比重/%			耕地比重/%				人均耕地面积/hm²
	1990年		2000年	2010年	1990年	2000年	2010年	1990年	2000年	2010年
胡焕庸线东南部	94.21	93.97	93.79	87.62	87.18	86.63		0.34	0.33	0.36
胡焕庸线西北部	5.79	6.03	6.21	12.38	12.82	13.37		1.38	1.43	1.44
东北区	10.23	9.79	9.57	16.31	17.67	17.88		0.81	0.89	0.94
黄淮海区	25.19	25.04	24.99	17.29	16.76	16.61		0.16	0.13	0.13
长三角区	9.78	9.83	10.85	5.88	5.60	5.36		0.18	0.16	0.16
长江中下游区	21.00	20.07	19.35	14.16	13.83	13.71		0.16	0.15	0.15
珠三角区	5.15	6.77	7.85	2.01	1.88	1.73		0.13	0.11	0.10
华南区	5.08	4.99	5.09	4.58	4.48	4.47		0.34	0.32	0.34
西南区	19.26	18.59	17.10	17.35	17.05	16.99		0.24	0.24	0.26
黄土高原区	7.82	7.89	7.74	8.72	8.61	8.49		0.42	0.40	0.41
内蒙区	3.80	3.69	3.68	8.32	8.63	8.63		1.14	1.20	1.34
甘新区	2.51	2.73	2.90	4.83	4.95	5.57		1.61	1.53	1.58
青藏区	0.41	0.40	0.43	0.54	0.55	0.56		1.78	1.79	1.73

变量	PCFC 1990-2000（SEM）	变量	PCFC 2000-2010（SEM）
常数项	-0.57*	常数项	12.07***
PCFA_1990	4.16***	PCFA_2000	1.20***
Elevation	-0.12	Elevation	5.09**
Slope	8.48***	Slope	1.13
Dis2city	45.41***	Dis2city	8.02***
Dis2river	17.75***	Dis2river	1.12
Dis2railway	-23.69***	Dis2railway	-1.48
PGDP_1990	-3.86	PGDP_2000	-14.16***
AIR_1990	-2.28	AIR_2000	-7.63***
CPGDP_1990-2000	-0.01	CPGDP_2000-2010	-2.39*
CAIR_1990-2000	3.64*	CAIR_2000-2010	-5.98**
LAMBDA	0.93***	LAMBDA	0.97***
R²	0.73	R²	0.86
AIC	461 342	AIC	441 159
SC	461 440	SC	441 258
Log likelihood	-230 659.78	Log likelihood	-220 568.71
Lagrange Multiplier （lag）	97 503.20***	Lagrange Multiplier （lag）	137 354.00 ***
Robust LM （lag）	18.82***	Robust LM （lag）	894.14***
Lagrange Multiplier （error）	97 868.80***	Lagrange Multiplier （error）	137 586.03***
Robust LM （error）	384.42***	Robust LM （error）	1 125.81***

The pattern and mechanism of farmland transition in China from the perspective of per capita farmland area

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