经济平稳增长下黄河流域相关省区碳达峰时间及峰值水平

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.11.15

Abstract

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological security barrier in China, and it is of great practical significance to examine the carbon peak of the region. This study adopted the optimal economic growth model to calculate the optimal economic growth rate of relevant provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2020 to 2050, simulated and analyzed the carbon peak of each province under different emission scenarios, and explored the impact of emission reduction scenarios on the equality of carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) Emission reduction scenarios are conducive to the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development in relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin, thereby promoting the achievement of carbon peak; (2) Under the baseline scenario and the intended nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin cannot achieve the target of carbon emissions by 2030; Early peaking emissions scenario has the largest emission reduction; (3) Emission reduction scenarios can improve the equality of carbon emissions in relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin., and the effect of the early peaking emissions scenario is more significant. However, the problem of regional inequality of carbon emissions still exists. In order to achieve the carbon peak in the Yellow River Basin as soon as possible, the government should further reinforce its policy orientation, fully consider regional differences, strengthen inter-provincial cooperation, and formulate more appropriate emission reduction policies.

Key words: optimal economic growth rate, carbon emission intensity, carbon emission peak, Gini coefficient of carbon emissions, Yellow River Basin

WANG Liangdong, WU Leying, CHEN Yulong, MA Xiaozhe, DU Mengna. Carbon peak time and peak level of relevant provinces in the Yellow River Basin under stable economic growth[J].Resources Science, 2021, 43(11): 2331-2341.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 33

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	GDP 全国占比	人口全国占比	能源消费全国占比	碳排放全国占比	区域三次产业增加值结构
总体	21.8	24.2	29.1	43.5	8.1: 45.1: 46.8
山西	1.8	2.7	4.4	13.2	5.2: 41.3: 53.5
内蒙古	1.9	1.8	4.4	6.6	11.1: 39.4: 49.5
山东	8.6	7.2	8.5	9.5	6.7: 45.3: 48.0
河南	5.3	6.9	5.0	4.8	9.6: 47.7: 42.7
陕西	2.6	2.8	2.8	5.5	8.0: 49.7: 42.3
甘肃	0.9	1.9	1.7	1.5	11.5: 34.4: 54.1
青海	0.3	0.4	0.9	0.4	9.7: 39.6: 50.7
宁夏	0.4	0.5	1.4	2.0	7.3: 45.9: 46.8

	山西	内蒙古	山东	河南	陕西	甘肃	青海	宁夏
基准情景	3.97	3.73	4.59	4.34	3.97	3.73	2.56	3.73
自主减排情景	4.11	4.11	4.11	4.11	4.11	4.11	4.11	4.11
提前达峰情景	5.97	6.86	5.88	4.87	5.27	6.01	6.92	5.30

地区	年份	基准情景	自主减排情景	提前达峰情景
山西	2020	0.86	0.86	0.86
	2030	0.31	0.29	-0.03
	2040	-0.35	-0.40	-1.03
	2050	-5.94	-6.19	-9.43
内蒙古	2020	0.15	0.15	0.15
	2030	0.44	0.38	-0.03
	2040	0.06	-0.03	-0.73
	2050	-1.87	-2.16	-4.28
山东	2020	0.42	0.42	0.42
	2030	0.20	0.28	-0.03
	2040	-0.16	-0.04	-0.49
	2050	-1.02	-0.81	-1.58
河南	2020	0.60	0.60	0.60
	2030	0.09	0.14	-0.02
	2040	-0.02	0.03	-0.14
	2050	-0.07	-0.01	-0.20
陕西	2020	0.19	0.19	0.19
	2030	0.23	0.20	-0.03
	2040	-0.38	-0.43	-0.83
	2050	-2.13	-2.24	-3.15
甘肃	2020	0.73	0.73	0.73
	2030	0.36	0.30	-0.03
	2040	-0.06	-0.17	-0.72
	2050	-3.32	-3.77	-5.97
青海	2020	0.52	0.52	0.52
	2030	0.62	0.39	-0.04
	2040	0.23	-0.24	-1.08
	2050	-2.95	-5.35	-9.70
宁夏	2020	0.08	0.08	0.08
	2030	0.28	0.20	-0.03
	2040	-0.07	-0.19	-0.53
	2050	-1.01	-1.22	-1.86
总体	2020	0.56	0.56	0.56
	2030	0.30	0.29	-0.03
	2040	-0.15	-0.16	-0.63
	2050	-1.10	-1.11	-1.80

	山西	内蒙古	山东	河南	陕西	甘肃	青海	宁夏	总体
基准情景/年	2035	2040	2036	2037	2034	2038	2042	2038	2037
自主减排情景/年	2035	2039	2039	2045	2033	2035	2037	2035	2036
提前达峰情景/年	2029	2029	2029	2028	2029	2028	2029	2029	2029

Carbon peak time and peak level of relevant provinces in the Yellow River Basin under stable economic growth

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