中国海外耕地投资发展的时空格局演变与影响因素

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.09.07

Abstract

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to explore the development of China’s overseas farmland investment activities. Based on the case statistics of GRAIN and Land Matrix, this study analyzed the change in spatial pattern and influencing factors of China’s overseas farmland investment development by means of literature review and spatial measurement. The results show that: (1) The overall spatial agglomeration effect of China’s overseas farmland investment began to appear after 2004, and obvious spatial differentiation has been formed locally at present. Russia and Southeast Asia have become high-high agglomeration areas; (2) The spatial variation range and degree of influence of China’s overseas farmland investment activities have undergone a process of volatile increase. The spatial variation from northwest to southeast is the most significant, and internal factors of host countries have become the key; (3) The development of China’s overseas farmland investment is significantly affected by geopolitical, geo-economic, and geo-cultural factors, including the proportion of agricultural land in the host country, the level of grain yield, the number of statements, declarations, and bulletins jointly issued with China, the number of visa-free documents of China, and the number of consular agencies in China are the six statistically significant indicators. In a situation that China’s overseas farmland investment scale has been spatially different and stable, relevant institutions should pay more attention to the protection and planning of investment for Southeast Asia and Russia.

Key words: overseas farmland investment, spatial pattern, influencing factors, spatial regression, China

HAN Jing, CHEN Zexiu, LU Xinhai. Spatiotemporal change of China’s overseas investment in farmlands and influencing factors[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1715-1727.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Figure 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Figure 2

Table 6

Table 7

References 30

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序号	被投资国	地区	意向项目数量/个	营运项目数量/个	意向项目面积/万hm²	营运项目面积/万hm²	最早投资年份
1	尼加拉瓜	北美洲	1	1	30.00	30.00	2013
2	牙买加	北美洲	1	1	1.80	1.80	2011
3	澳大利亚	大洋洲	4	2	3.95	0.45	2011
4	巴布亚新几内亚	大洋洲	4	4	51.69	51.69	2009
5	埃塞俄比亚	非洲	3	1	10.50	2.50	2008
6	安哥拉	非洲	3	2	52.15	2.15	2010
7	贝宁	非洲	4	3	2.96	1.96	2001
8	刚果（金）	非洲	4	3	39.54	28.63	2007
9	加纳	非洲	2	1	3.65	0.05	2013
10	津巴布韦	非洲	4	3	15.57	1.39	2003
11	喀麦隆	非洲	2	2	2.01	2.01	2006
12	利比里亚	非洲	1	1	1.00	1.00	2010
13	马达加斯加	非洲	5	5	3.95	3.45	2005
14	马里	非洲	1	1	2.00	2.00	2009
15	莫桑比克	非洲	9	8	6.38	6.26	2000
16	尼日利亚	非洲	6	4	4.23	3.23	2006
17	塞拉利昂	非洲	6	5	17.82	4.15	2009
18	苏丹	非洲	2	2	1.67	1.17	2009
19	坦桑尼亚	非洲	3	1	0.13	0.06	2007
20	乌干达	非洲	4	4	5.24	0.58	2009
21	赞比亚	非洲	4	3	0.44	0.50	2003
22	阿根廷	南美洲	6	6	34.34	34.34	2010
23	巴西	南美洲	7	5	44.40	4.40	2007
24	玻利维亚	南美洲	1	1	1.25	1.25	2005
25	哥伦比亚	南美洲	1	1	40.00	40.00	2010
26	圭亚那	南美洲	1	1	62.71	27.41	2011
27	乌拉圭	南美洲	4	4	0.40	0.40	2008
28	白俄罗斯	欧洲	1	1	10.00	10.00	2017
29	保加利亚	欧洲	5	5	7.42	6.62	2008
30	俄罗斯	欧洲	5	5	101.33	84.33	2004
31	乌克兰	欧洲	3	2	1.44	1.14	2013
32	菲律宾	亚洲	8	4	254.44	5.64	2006
33	柬埔寨	亚洲	28	27	25.78	24.98	2000
34	老挝	亚洲	29	28	75.25	29.67	2002
35	缅甸	亚洲	23	21	94.82	85.31	2006
36	塔吉克斯坦	亚洲	4	3	11.89	11.09	2012
37	印度尼西亚	亚洲	15	14	94.02	62.65	2004
38	越南	亚洲	14	13	36.55	26.55	2005

子目标	指标	单位	数据来源
资源基础	耕地总面积（C₁）	hm²	FAO数据库
	人均耕地面积（C₂）	hm²	FAO数据库
	农用地比例（C₃）	%	FAO数据库
	谷物单产（C₄）	kg/hm²	FAO数据库
	人均淡水资源量（C₅）	m³	FAO数据库
地缘政治	建交时长（C₆）	年	《中国外交》
	高层交往总数（C₇）	次	《中国外交》
	领事磋商总数（C₈）	次	《中国外交》
	声明、宣言和公报总数（C₉）	次	《中国外交》
	对华免签证件数量（C₁₀）	个	《中国外交》
地缘经济	年均出口总额（C₁₁）	万美元	《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》
	年均出口额增长率（C₁₂）	%	《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》
	年均进口总额（C₁₃）	万美元	《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》
	年均进口额增长率（C₁₄）	%	《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》
	年均对外承包工程完成营业额（C₁₅）	万美元	《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》
	对中投资合作政策数量（C₁₆）	个	《中国外交》
地缘文化	年均在华留学生人数（C₁₇）	人	《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》
	年均赴华旅游人数（C₁₈）	人/次	《中国贸易外经统计年鉴》
	人文合作交流总数（C₁₉）	次	《中国外交》
	驻华领事机构数量（C₂₀）	个	《中国外交》

年份	Moran’s I	Z值	P值	年份	Moran’s I	Z值	P值
2000	-0.0170	1.2452	0.1132	2009	0.5473	7.1715	0.0010
2001	-0.0411	-0.2855	0.4410	2010	0.4033	5.0061	0.0022
2002	-0.0713	-0.6835	0.2583	2011	0.3060	3.9024	0.0063
2003	-0.0369	-0.1106	0.4790	2012	0.3321	4.2150	0.0051
2004	0.2461	3.5586	0.0120	2013	0.3232	4.1461	0.0041
2005	0.3712	5.1180	0.0012	2014	0.3104	3.9976	0.0053
2006	0.4114	5.7002	0.0043	2015	0.3727	4.8210	0.0014
2007	0.4684	6.8745	0.0022	2016	0.3792	4.8981	0.0010
2008	0.5381	7.1604	0.0011	2017	0.4211	0.0013	0.0021

年份	模型	变程	块金值	残差平方和	基台值	块金系数	判定系数	偏基台值
2000	高斯	1333.68	0.0000	3.91E-03	0.0302	0.000	0.166	0.0302
2004	高斯	22014.37	0.0140	1.25E-03	0.0634	0.221	0.556	0.0494
2009	高斯	14306.74	0.0054	1.59E-03	0.0538	0.100	0.683	0.0484
2017	高斯	14358.70	0.0063	1.73E-03	0.0717	0.088	0.781	0.0654

年份	全方向		南—北		东北—西南		东—西		西北—东南
年份	D	R²	D	R²	D	R²	D	R²	D	R²
2000	1.853	0.258	1.945	0.254	1.979	0.025	1.929	0.116	1.893	0.188
2004	1.857	0.196	1.947	0.005	1.710	0.119	1.983	0.001	1.561	0.416
2009	1.671	0.521	1.831	0.101	1.560	0.272	1.633	0.134	1.226	0.653
2017	1.609	0.734	1.871	0.050	1.641	0.188	1.502	0.353	1.244	0.728

Spatiotemporal change of China’s overseas investment in farmlands and influencing factors

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Test	MI/DF	Value	Prob
LM(lag)	1	4.0454	0.04429
R-LM(lag)	1	5.7611	0.01638
LM(error)	1	0.1559	0.69296
R-LM(error)	1	1.8716	0.17129

模型	OLS	SLM	SEM
CONSTANT	-0.1974	0.4194	-0.3593
lnC₁	0.0145	0.0061	0.0266
lnC₂	-0.0315	0.0003	-0.0479
C₃	-0.0025	-0.0032**	-0.0043***
lnC₄	0.0999	0.0833**	0.1745***
lnC₅	-0.0203	-0.0338	-0.0448*
C₆	0.0030	0.0016	0.0025
C₇	-0.0006	-0.0009	0.0008
C₈	-0.0240	-0.0077	-0.0135
C₉	0.0098	0.0123**	0.0077*
C₁₀	-0.0182	-0.0368**	-0.0136
lnC₁₁	-0.0030	0.0205	0.0214
C₁₂	0.0041	0.0053*	0.0057*
lnC₁₃	0.0182	0.0216	0.0191
C₁₄	0.0006	0.0008	0.0008
lnC₁₅	-0.0319	-0.0460*	-0.0615**
C₁₆	0.0016	0.0012	0.0008
lnC₁₇	0.0081	0.0096	0.0107
lnC₁₈	-0.0514	-0.0637*	-0.0883***
C₁₉	-0.0010	-0.0008	-0.0028
C₂₀	0.0452	0.0451**	0.0417**
ρ		-0.8654**
λ			7.8271***
R-squared	0.6938	0.7290	0.5487
LogL	29.0833	31.0495	3.3681
AIC	-16.1666	-18.0990	-18.7363
SC	18.2227	17.9279	15.6530

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