Abstract:

The cooperation of Sino-Russian natural gas has an important impact on the natural gas trade safety in both countries. In recent studies, the qualitative methods of natural gas trade safety have been the main focus. More and more researches have begun to use quantitative analysis methods to evaluate natural gas safety. Based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, this study has established a natural gas import and export safety evaluation system, assessing the Sino-Russian natural gas trade safety structure and situation under the influence of different factors. The results show: The diversification of natural gas import in China has gradually increased. The rising trend in the proportion of natural gas imported from Russia did show a positive impact on balancing China’s natural gas import sources and reducing China’s natural gas import risk. The gradually increasing natural gas export potential of Russia plays a positive role on China’s import safety. The price did exhibit a significant impact on China’s natural gas trade safety. The proportion of Russia’s natural gas exported to China has an impact on the export safety of Russia natural gas to a certain extent. The positive impact of China’s increasing natural gas import potential offsets the negative impact of the drop in natural gas demand of Russia’s major natural gas export countries. The drop in natural gas prices in recent years has a significant negative impact on the Russian natural gas export safety. In the next few years, the sharp increase in Sino-Russian natural gas trade volume will enhance the import concentration of China. Therefore, we should guard against the rising natural gas import risk.

Key words: Sino-Russian natural gas trade security, import risk, export risk, structure, situation