基于单边界二分式CVM的不同样本方案下耕地保护外部性测度与分析——以河南省焦作市为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.07.01

Abstract

Abstract:

The cultivated land protection externalities are remarkable. To explore the difference and influencing factors of cultivated land protection externalities under different sample schemes based on the single-bounded dichotomous choice CVM,which is conducive to scientifically measure the economic compensation standard of cultivated land protection. Taking Jiaozuo as an example,to evaluate the cultivated land protection externalities of the average sample scheme,the non-average sample scheme and the classified non-average sample scheme. The effects of classification and merging of the samples,the number and the balance of samples on the validity and accuracy of the measure of the cultivated land protection externalities were clarified. The results show that：（1）Combined with the case comparison,the results are higher reliability of the average sample scheme and non-average sample scheme in the scientifically set the bid value and the hypothetical market situation,reasonably avoid bias and properly set the sample size,which is chosen as the lowest economic compensation standard of cultivated land protection under realistic conditions;（2）The result deviation of the average sample scheme and the non-average sample scheme are 41.5yuan and 255.5yuan respectively,the corresponding deviation rates are 3.2% and 19.5% respectively based on the result of the non-average sample scheme. Therefore,the results are significantly correlated with sample size of bid,and the correlation with equilibrium of sample size of the bid is not significant based on the single-bounded dichotomous choice CVM;（3）It is recommended to use the average sample scheme,the classified average sample scheme and the classified non-average sample scheme in the design and implementation of sample schemes of the dichotomous choice CVM. However,the measure result is highly reliable,which is only the minimum sample size of each bid value （including classified samples）is more than 30;（4）In practice,to establish and improve the dynamic promotion mechanism and system of cultivated land protection based on the lowest economic compensation standard of cultivated land protection.

Key words: single-bounded dichotomous choice CVM, different sample schemes, willingness to pay, cultivated land protection externalities, Jiaozuo City

Haipeng NIU, Kunpeng WANG. Measurement and analysis of cultivated land protection externalities under different sample schemes based on the single-bounded dichotomous choice CVM：a case study of Jiaozuo[J].Resources Science, 2017, 39(7): 1227-1237.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1

Table 2

The selection and definition of the variable under single-bounded dichotomous choice CVM"

变量名称/单位变量指标说明
Y	被解释变量,受访者对投标值回答接受时,Y=1;受访者对投标值回答不接受时,Y=0
TC/元	初始投标值
X₁	您认为耕地重要吗?1=“不重要”,2=“不清楚”,3=“重要”
X₂	您认为政府有必要进一步加强耕地保护并出台相关政策吗?1=“没有”,2=“无所谓”,3=“有”
X₃	您认为耕地种植农作物除了能产生经济效益外,还具有涵养水源、保持水土、调节气候、改善大气质量、维持生物多样性和土壤净化等生态效益以及提供粮食安全保障、农民养老和失业的社会保障、开敞空间及景观效益和科学文化等社会效益吗?1=“没有”,2=“不清楚”,3=“有”
X₄	您认为耕地面积减少和质量降低会影响您家庭今后的生活吗?1=“不会”,2=“不清楚”,3=“会”
X₅	您认为耕地面积减少和质量降低会影响子孙后代的生活吗?1=“不会”,2=“不清楚”,3=“会”
X₆/人	受访者家庭总人口,实际调查数据
X₇/人	受访者家庭劳动力人数/工作人数,实际调查数据
X₈/人	兼业人数,实际调查数据
X₉/人	在校学生人数,实际调查数据
X₁₀/人	家庭被抚养人数,实际调查数据
X₁₁	性别,1=男,0=女
X₁₂/岁	年龄,l=30以下,2=31~45,3=46~60,4=60及以上
X₁₃	文化程度,1=未念过书,2=小学,3=初中,4=高中（中专）,5=大专,6=本科及以上
X₁₄	健康状况,1=较差,2=一般,3=良好
X₁₅/（万元/年）	家庭年总收入水平,1=1以下,2=1~3,3=3~5,4=5~7,5=7~9以上,6=9以上
X₁₆	区域,1=城镇,0=农村
X₁₇/%	日常支出比例,1=30以下,2=31~60,3=61~90,4=90以上
X₁₈	职业,1=公务员/公司领导,2=公司经理或高管,3=教师/医务人员,4=私营企业家,5=其他技术人员,6=企事业办事人员,7=工人/服务员/业务员,8=个体工商户,9=下岗/失业人员,10=退休人员
X₁₉/亩	耕地面积,1=3亩以下,2=3~5亩,3=5~7亩,4=7亩以上
X₂₀	兼业,1=是,2=否
X₂₁/%	农业收入占家庭总收入比例,1=30以下,2=31~60,3=61~90,4=90以上
X₂₂	家庭收入来源,1=种地,2=本地或外地打工,3=自己创业

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Externality of cultivated land protection in Jiaozuo in 2014"

支付意愿/（元/（户 $?$ 年））				支付率/%				单位面积耕地外部性/（元/（hm² $?$ 年））
均分样本	非均分样本	分类非均分样本		均分样本	非均分样本	分类非均分样本		均分样本	非均分样本	分类非均分样本
均分样本	非均分样本	城镇类		均分样本	农村类			均分样本	城镇类	农村类
293.19	284.20	255.20	201.30	89.74	89.74	88.03	91.06	1 351.80	1 310.30	1 054.80

Table 7

References 30

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							Exp（B）的95%C.I.
模型	自变量	均值	系数	自由度	显著水平	Exp（B）	下限	上限
步骤11	X₄	2.650	-0.553	1	0.002***	0.575	0.407	0.812
	TC	270.450	-0.007	1	0.000***	0.993	0.991	0.995
	X₁₃	3.400	0.237	1	0.036**	1.268	1.016	1.582
	X₁₅	2.990	0.273	1	0.035**	1.315	1.019	1.696
	X₁₆	0.480	-1.158	1	0.003***	0.314	0.147	0.670
	常量	-	2.438	1	0.001	11.451	-	-

							Exp（B）的95%C.I.
模型	自变量	均值	系数	自由度	显著水平	Exp（B）	下限	上限
步骤7	TC	256.860	-0.006	1	0.000***	0.994	0.992	0.995
	X₁₃	3.310	0.326	1	0.001***	1.386	1.141	1.684
	X₁₆	0.430	-0.509	1	0.050***	0.601	0.361	1.000
	常量	-	0.807	1	0.011	2.242	-	-

							Exp（B）的95%C.I.
模型	自变量	均值	系数	自由度	显著水平	Exp（B）	下限	上限
城镇类
步骤2	TC	253.030	-0.008	1	0.000***	0.992	0.990	0.995
	X₁₃	4.220	0.301	1	0.019***	1.351	1.052	1.735
	常量	-	0.698	1	0.226	2.010	-	-
农村类
步骤4	TC	259.730	-0.006	1	0.000***	0.994	0.992	0.996
	X₁₃	2.620	0.390	1	0.023***	1.477	1.056	2.065
	X₁₅	2.130	0.595	1	0.002***	1.184	1.249	2.634
	X₂₁	1.860	0.477	1	0.000***	1.611	1.244	2.087
	常量	-	-1.586	1	0.023	0.205	-	-

类别		模型	模型系数综合检验			H-L检验			-2对数似然值	C＆S R 方值	Nagelkerke R方值
类别		模型	卡方	df				sig	卡方	df	sig
均分样本		步骤1	114.229	15	0	10.324	8	0.243	417.869	0.257	0.343
		步骤6	113.236	10	0	11.461	8	0.177	418.863	0.255	0.340
		步骤11	107.042	5	0	7.994	8	0.434	425.056	0.243	0.324
非均分样本		步骤1	98.413	1	0	10.324	8	0.243	568.043	0.185	0.247
		步骤4	120.727	4	0	11.461	8	0.177	545.730	0.222	0.296
		步骤7	132.752	7	0	7.994	8	0.434	533.704	0.241	0.322
分类非均分样本	城镇类样本	步骤1	51.495	1	0	16.575	8	0.035	233.771	0.221	0.295
		步骤2	57.308	2	0	13.616	8	0.092	227.958	0.243	0.324
	农村类样本	步骤2	56.303	2	0	24.747	8	0.002	324.837	0.185	0.247
		步骤4	73.860	4	0	10.710	8	0.219	307.280	0.236	0.314

Measurement and analysis of cultivated land protection externalities under different sample schemes based on the single-bounded dichotomous choice CVM：a case study of Jiaozuo

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投标值/元	总样本量/份				接受样本量/份				接受率/%
	均分样本	非均分样本	分类非均分样本		均分样本	非均分样本	分类非均分样本		均分样本	非均分样本	分类非均分样本
	均分样本	非均分样本	城镇类		均分样本	农村类			城镇类	农村类	城镇类	农村类
50	35	49	17	32	35	49	17	32	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
75	35	36	15	21	31	31	14	17	88.60	86.11	93.33	80.95
100	35	60	31	29	29	44	23	21	82.90	73.33	74.19	72.41
150	35	47	18	29	20	25	13	12	57.10	53.19	72.22	41.38
200	35	41	20	21	14	16	7	9	40.00	39.02	35.00	42.86
250	35	39	19	20	19	19	10	9	54.30	48.72	52.63	45.00
300	35	53	25	28	18	22	7	15	51.40	41.51	28.00	53.57
350	35	42	14	28	10	11	4	7	28.60	26.19	28.57	25.00
400	35	40	18	22	11	11	6	4	31.40	27.5	33.33	18.18
500	35	36	14	22	11	11	4	7	31.40	30.56	28.57	31.82
600	35	38	15	23	7	8	2	6	20.00	21.05	13.33	26.09
合计	385	481	206	275	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–