1951-2012年科尔沁沙地气温在突变前后的时空对比

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.04.11

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on temperature data from 1951 to 2012 we analyzed abrupt change features of temperature and temporal and spatial variation before and after abrupt temperature change. We found that year （season）minimum temperature changed （1981-1987）,followed by year （season）mean temperature （1981-1994）,and then year （season）maximum temperature （1985-1999）. Winter temperatures have changed more abruptly than summer temperatures;minimum temperature was more abrupt than mean temperature,mean temperature was more abrupt than maximum temperature in spring （autumn and annual）;winter shows the opposite pattern. Before the abrupt change in minimum temperature （0.50℃/10a）in spring,after the abrupt change of the maximum temperature in autumn （0.75℃/10a）,are the largest contributor to temperature rise. Across all of the elements of temperature before and after abrupt change,the largest incremental mean value for many years is the winter minimum temperature （1.86℃）and the smallest is annual maximum temperature （0.83℃）. The largest incremental climate tendency rate is the autumn maximum temperature （0.72℃/10a）and the smallest is the summer maximum temperature （-0.02℃/10a）. Seasonal order of incremental mean temperature value for many years before and after abrupt change is opposite to their incremental climate tendency rate. The value range of all annual temperature elements' climate tendency rates after abrupt change are wider than before abrupt change;the area of annual minimum temperature increasing significant abrupt change increased by 6.79% compared with their before abrupt change. For the Xinkai and Xiliao Rivers the warming trend is higher than for other regions after abrupt change,except for the mean temperature for the Horqin Left Wing Middle Banner region. This study not only has a practical guide on ecological environment, farming and stockraising development, water resources development and utilization and and so on production and fliving but also has a certain scientific reference on global climatic change law.

Key words: Horqin Sandy Land, temperature, abrupt change, temporal and spatial variability, comparative analysis

WANG Jingru,MA Long,LIU Tingxi,HUANG Xing,LIU Danhui,LI Hongyu. Comparative analysis of temperature before and after abrupt changes in Horqin Sandy Land from 1951 to 2012[J].Resources Science, 2016, 38(4): 690-703.

Figures/Tables 9

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		多年均值 /℃	极大值 /℃（年份）	极小值 /℃（年份）	极值差 /℃	变异系数	气候倾向率 /（℃/10a）	峰（谷）值（次）
春季	突变前	14.51	16.55（1989）	12.75（1980）	3.80	0.08	0.101	3（4）
春季	突变后	15.43	18.13（1998）	11.92（2010）	6.21	0.09	0.275	1（0）
夏季	突变前	28.54	30.59（1997）	27.11（1992）	3.39	0.03	0.030	4（5）
夏季	突变后	29.70	31.58（2000）	28.55（2012）	3.03	0.03	0.009	1（1）
秋季	突变前	13.50	15.80（1975）	11.28（1981）	4.52	0.07	0.031	0（0）
秋季	突变后	14.35	16.28（2005）	11.72（2002）	4.56	0.09	0.747*	1（1）
冬季	突变前	-5.65	-3.38（1962）	-9.23（1969）	5.85	0.24	0.032	3（3）
冬季	突变后	-4.69	-1.09（2007）	-8.51（2012）	7.43	0.45	0.126	2（1）

		多年均值 /℃	极大值 /℃（年份）	极小值 /℃（年份）	极值差 /℃	变异系数	气候倾向率 /（℃/10a）	峰（谷）值（次）
春季	突变前	7.00	8.91（1975）	5.50（1957）	3.41	0.15	0.319*	4（4）
春季	突变后	8.25	10.61（2002）	5.70（2010）	4.91	0.14	0.520*	2（2）
夏季	突变前	22.36	23.66（1988）	21.17（1969）	2.49	0.03	0.087*	4（5）
夏季	突变后	23.45	25.24（2000）	22.22（2012）	3.02	0.04	0.400*	2（1）
秋季	突变前	6.04	8.01（1975）	4.37（1981）	3.64	0.13	0.142*	0（0）
秋季	突变后	7.13	8.91（2005）	4.93（2002）	3.98	0.14	0.422*	2（2）
冬季	突变前	-12.93	-10.81（1962）	-15.70（1969）	4.89	0.09	0.184	2（3）
冬季	突变后	-11.47	-8.24（2007）	-14.82（2012）	6.58	0.15	0.357*	2（2）

		多年均值 /℃	极大值 /℃（年份）	极小值 /℃（年份）	极值差 /℃	变异系数	气候倾向率 /（℃/10a）	峰（谷）值（次）
春季	突变前	-0.46	1.70（1975）	-1.87（1957）	3.57	2.24	0.496*	3（4）
春季	突变后	1.28	3.57（2002）	-0.55（1984）	4.12	0.83	0.569*	2（3）
夏季	突变前	16.35	17.38（1980）	14.53（1951）	2.85	0.04	0.249*	2（1）
夏季	突变后	17.37	18.85（2000）	15.99（1987）	2.86	0.04	0.455*	2（2）
秋季	突变前	-0.38	1.45（1975）	-1.93（1962）	3.38	2.11	0.195*	3（3）
秋季	突变后	0.97	2.52（2005）	-1.17（2002）	3.69	0.93	0.353*	2（1）
冬季	突变前	-18.75	-16.38（1955）	-21.87（1956）	5.49	0.07	0.220	3（4）
冬季	突变后	-16.89	-13.95（2007）	-19.93（2012）	5.98	0.10	0.335*	2（2）

显著性		不显著降低	显著降低	不显著升高	显著升高	极显著升高
年平均气温	突变前	–	–	96.85	3.15	–
年平均气温	突变后	19.22	–	79.14	1.52	0.11
年最低气温	突变前	–	–	22.70	58.10	19.20
年最低气温	突变后	1.17	0.81	13.92	35.67	48.42

Comparative analysis of temperature before and after abrupt changes in Horqin Sandy Land from 1951 to 2012

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