Resources Science ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (11): 2331-2341.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.11.15

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Carbon peak time and peak level of relevant provinces in the Yellow River Basin under stable economic growth

WANG Liangdong1(), WU Leying1(), CHEN Yulong1, MA Xiaozhe2,3, DU Mengna1   

  1. 1. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
    2. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
  • Received:2021-02-23 Revised:2021-04-06 Online:2021-11-25 Published:2022-01-27
  • Contact: WU Leying

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological security barrier in China, and it is of great practical significance to examine the carbon peak of the region. This study adopted the optimal economic growth model to calculate the optimal economic growth rate of relevant provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2020 to 2050, simulated and analyzed the carbon peak of each province under different emission scenarios, and explored the impact of emission reduction scenarios on the equality of carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) Emission reduction scenarios are conducive to the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development in relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin, thereby promoting the achievement of carbon peak; (2) Under the baseline scenario and the intended nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin cannot achieve the target of carbon emissions by 2030; Early peaking emissions scenario has the largest emission reduction; (3) Emission reduction scenarios can improve the equality of carbon emissions in relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin., and the effect of the early peaking emissions scenario is more significant. However, the problem of regional inequality of carbon emissions still exists. In order to achieve the carbon peak in the Yellow River Basin as soon as possible, the government should further reinforce its policy orientation, fully consider regional differences, strengthen inter-provincial cooperation, and formulate more appropriate emission reduction policies.

Key words: optimal economic growth rate, carbon emission intensity, carbon emission peak, Gini coefficient of carbon emissions, Yellow River Basin