基于开放式水资源嵌入型CGE模型的税改政策经济影响与节水效应

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.11.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Water resources tax reform is an important price reform measure implemented by the Chinese government to promote the effective conservation and sustainable utilization of water resources. The water- saving effect and economic impact of policy implementation are one of the important bases for determining whether the tax reform can be promoted nationwide. Taking Hebei Province the first pilot province of water resources tax reform as an example, this study constructed an open water resources embedded computable general equilibrium model (CGE) while expanding the standard social accounting matrix (SAM table), and three scenarios were set up to simulate the economic impact of the implementation of the water resources tax reform policy on Hebei Province. The results show that: (1) Levying water resources tax will have a certain negative impact on the macro economy in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, the implementation of water resources tax policy can effectively promote the conservation and protection of water resources, improve the efficiency of enterprises in the use of water resources, and is conducive to the construction of ecological civilization and the sustainable development of economic and social environments; (2) Different industries have different dependencies on water resources, so the differentiated water resources tax reform policy can more effectively achieve the goal of water saving and achieve better policy results; (3) The transfer payment of water resources tax can play the role of tax regulation, effectively reduce the welfare loss caused by taxation, and reduce the negative impact on economy and society while achieving the ideal water saving effect. Finally, the article puts forward the policy recommendation that the provinces of China should coordinate policy making, policy implementation, and tax use in the process of water resources tax reform.

Key words: water resources tax, water saving effect, economic impact, social accounting matrix, open water resource embedded CGE model, policy simulation, Hebei Province

WU Zheng, TIAN Guiliang, HU Yucan. Economic impact and water saving effect of tax reform policy based on open water resources embedded CGE model[J].Resources Science, 2021, 43(11): 2264-2276.

Figures/Tables 8

Figure 1

Figure 2

Table 1

Table 2

Elasticity parameter setting of the main functions of provincial water resources computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

部门	$δ a$	$δ a va$	$δ a kw$	$δ q$	$δ t$
农业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	5
一般耗水工业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
高耗水工业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
建筑业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
水的生产与供应业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
一般耗水服务业	0.3	0.8	0.6	2	4
高耗水服务业	0.3	0.8	0.6	2	4

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

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情景	情景设计
基准情景（S0）	不征收水资源税
情景一（S1）	所有部门征收20%的水资源税率
情景二（S2）	高耗水行业征收25%的水资源税率,其他行业征收20%的税率
情景三（S3）	同情景二实行差别税率,并将税收转移支付给居民和企业

变量	情景一（S1）	情景二（S2）	情景三（S3）
GDP	-0.021	-0.023	-0.022
政府收入	0.245	0.247	-0.229
居民收入	-0.023	-0.026	-0.019
企业收入	-0.912	-0.913	-0.899
进口	-0.027	-0.029	-0.028
出口	-0.048	-0.053	-0.051

行业	情景一（S1）	情景二（S2）	情景三（S3）
农业	-0.87	-0.85	-0.86
一般耗水工业	-0.82	-0.79	-0.80
高耗水工业	-1.07	-1.14	-1.07
水的生产和供应业	-0.90	-0.89	-0.89
建筑业	-1.08	-1.08	-1.08
一般耗水服务业	-0.88	-0.86	-0.87
高耗水服务业	-1.10	-1.29	-1.21

行业	情景一（S1）	情景二（S2）	情景三（S3）
农业	-0.026	-0.029	-0.028
一般耗水工业	-0.022	-0.025	-0.024
高耗水工业	-0.031	-0.034	-0.033
水的生产和供应业	-0.013	-0.015	-0.014
建筑业	-0.006	-0.007	-0.006
一般耗水服务业	-0.016	-0.018	-0.017
高耗水服务业	-0.020	-0.023	-0.022

Economic impact and water saving effect of tax reform policy based on open water resources embedded CGE model

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序号	水资源CGE模型的部门	2012年投入产出表里的部门
1	农业	农林牧渔产品和服务
2	一般耗水工业	能源采选产品,食品和烟草,木材加工品,燃料加工品,非金属矿物制品,金属制品,电子设备,通信设备,其他制造产品等
3	高耗水工业	纺织品,造纸印刷和文教体育用品,化学产品,金属冶炼和压延加工品,电力、热力的生产和供应等
4	水的生产与供应业	水的生产与供应业
5	建筑业	建筑业
6	一般耗水服务业	批发和零售,交通运输、仓储和邮政,信息传输、金融,科学研究和技术服务,水利、环境和公共设施管理,居民服务等
7	高耗水服务业	住宿和餐饮业

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