黄河下游经济-人口-资源-环境和谐发展水平评估

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.02.18

Abstract

Abstract:

With the rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization, the relationship between the economy, population, resources, and environment of the lower reaches of the Yellow River became increasingly complicated with clear conflicts. Quantitative assessment of their harmonious development level is of great significance for the high-quality development of the lower Yellow River Basin. This study constructed a harmonious development level evaluation index system from four aspects: economy, population, resources, and environment, adopting a single indicator quantification-multiple indicator synthesis-multiple criteria integration evaluation method to evaluate the harmonious development level of the economy, population, resources, and environment in 17 cities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in Henan and Shandong Provinces from 2010 to 2018. Radar chart and boxplot were used to analyze the time-varying process, and Kriging interpolation was used to analyze the spatial change process. The results show that: (1) The overall degree of harmony in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is only moderate, but it has been steadily increasing year by year. The economic subsystem shows the highest development level, followed by the environmental subsystem, and the population and resources subsystems show a lower development level; (2) In terms of spatial distribution, the level of harmonious development presents a high-level cluster centered on Zhengzhou and Jinan, and low-level clusters in the peripheral cities of the two provinces. Finally, based on the characteristics of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, the advantages and disadvantages of the harmonious development process were analyzed by different urban agglomerations, and suggestions for promoting the harmonious development of the lower reaches of the Yellow River were proposed from the perspective of structural adjustment. This study aimed to provide data support and policy recommendations for the harmonious development of the lower reaches of the Yellow River by quantifying the level of the harmonious development of economy, population, resources, and environment.

Key words: economy-population-resources-environment, harmonious development, evaluation system, quantification method, spatiotemporal change, lower reaches of the Yellow River

LIU Jianhua, HUANG Liangchao, ZUO Qiting. Evaluation of harmonious development of economy-population-resource-environment in the lower reaches of the Yellow River[J].Resources Science, 2021, 43(2): 412-422.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Figure 1

Table 2

Characteristic values of quantitative indicator nodes and weights of indicators"

指标编号	最差值	较差值	及格值	较优值	最优值	熵值法	变异系数法	综合权重
X111	13345.86	35839.04	58332.22	134734.21	211136.20	0.0231	0.0286	0.0259
X112	712.12	2453.54	4194.97	8348.80	12502.62	0.0338	0.0347	0.0342
X113	40.35	22.84	5.33	2.68	0.04	0.0674	0.0522	0.0598
X114	187.42	329.68	471.94	664.21	865.47	0.0297	0.0311	0.0304
X121	0.33	1.01	1.68	2.39	3.09	0.0295	0.0320	0.0307
X122	7.99	35.40	62.81	145.42	228.02	0.0470	0.0423	0.0447
X123	0.01	0.45	0.89	4.23	7.58	0.0513	0.0420	0.0467
X131	1.06	6.87	12.68	33.06	53.44	0.0513	0.0418	0.0465
X132	0.12	1.01	1.89	3.87	5.86	0.0677	0.0509	0.0593
X211	16560.50	10410.94	4261.37	2397.99	534.60	0.0147	0.0229	0.0188
X212	20.92	13.57	6.21	3.20	0.19	0.0178	0.0244	0.0211
X213	19.13	35.09	51.05	65.88	80.72	0.0465	0.0400	0.0433
X221	3.42	2.87	2.33	1.97	1.61	0.0140	0.0234	0.0187
X222	48.16	39.52	30.88	22.00	13.12	0.0264	0.0324	0.0294
X223	4.52	3.72	2.91	2.07	1.23	0.0194	0.0259	0.0227
X224	351.49	887.11	1422.73	2324.40	3226.07	0.0277	0.0307	0.0292
X311	64.02	176.39	288.76	796.47	1304.19	0.0213	0.0275	0.0244
X312	4.70	9.37	14.04	22.75	31.46	0.0258	0.0294	0.0276
X313	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.11	0.13	0.0465	0.0417	0.0441
X321	628.46	466.88	305.30	231.99	158.69	0.0508	0.0429	0.0469
X322	223.86	144.84	65.82	41.72	17.62	0.0357	0.0367	0.0362
X323	1.88	1.33	0.78	0.47	0.16	0.0521	0.0425	0.0473
X411	72.58	39.93	7.29	3.71	0.13	0.0508	0.0414	0.0461
X412	14.43	8.56	2.69	1.40	0.11	0.0412	0.0407	0.0409
X413	79.34	45.32	11.30	6.06	0.82	0.0311	0.0315	0.0313
X414	92.83	76.12	59.42	41.58	23.75	0.0106	0.0188	0.0147
X421	26.94	33.89	40.83	46.21	51.59	0.0112	0.0194	0.0153
X422	51.85	74.49	97.13	98.56	100.00	0.0247	0.0276	0.0261
X423	29.59	57.68	85.77	92.88	100.00	0.0076	0.0165	0.0121
X424	48.08	70.52	92.95	96.48	100.00	0.0231	0.0286	0.0259

Table 2

Table 3

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

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目标层	子系统层	分类层	指标	单位	方向	编号
经济-人口-资源-环境和谐发展指数	经济子系统	经济基础	人均GDP	元/人	正向	X111
			人均财政收入	元/人	正向	X112
			经济波动率	%	逆向	X113
			亩均粮食产量	kg/亩	正向	X114
		创新驱动	研发强度	%	正向	X121
			万人从业人员中R&D人员数	人	正向	X122
			万人发明专利授权量	件	正向	X123
		开放合作	对外贸易依存度	%	正向	X131
		开放合作	外商直接投资依存度	%	正向	X132
	人口子系统	人口数量	人口密度	人/km²	逆向	X211
			人口自然增长率	‰	逆向	X212
			城镇化率	%	正向	X213
		人口质量	城乡人均收入比	无量纲	逆向	X221
			恩格尔系数	%	逆向	X222
			城镇登记失业率	%	逆向	X223
			人均教育经费	元/人	正向	X224
	资源子系统	资源条件	人均水资源量	m³/人	正向	X311
			人均公园绿地面积	m²/人	正向	X312
			人均耕地面积	hm²/人	正向	X313
		资源利用	人均用水量	m³/人	逆向	X321
			万元GDP水耗	m³/万元	逆向	X322
			万元GDP能耗	t标准煤/万元	逆向	X323
	环境子系统	环境污染	万元工业增加值SO₂排放量	kg/万元	逆向	X411
			万元工业增加值烟（粉）尘排放量	kg/万元	逆向	X412
			万元工业增加值废水排放量	t/万元	逆向	X413
			PM2.5均值	μg/m³	逆向	X414
		环境治理	城市建成区绿化覆盖率	%	正向	X421
			生活垃圾无害化处理率	%	正向	X422
			固体废弃物综合利用率	%	正向	X423
			城市污水处理率	%	正向	X424

地区	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年
黄河下游	0.482	0.533	0.558	0.583	0.589	0.608	0.633	0.659	0.675
郑州市	0.524	0.585	0.607	0.658	0.657	0.680	0.709	0.727	0.750
开封市	0.388	0.430	0.487	0.516	0.534	0.559	0.609	0.632	0.641
洛阳市	0.455	0.497	0.544	0.547	0.591	0.608	0.631	0.671	0.668
新乡市	0.457	0.514	0.524	0.565	0.585	0.578	0.618	0.642	0.652
焦作市	0.429	0.498	0.515	0.538	0.570	0.582	0.618	0.670	0.657
濮阳市	0.371	0.435	0.467	0.494	0.526	0.530	0.579	0.608	0.598
三门峡市	0.447	0.486	0.519	0.537	0.541	0.566	0.603	0.651	0.668
济源市	0.465	0.487	0.552	0.551	0.573	0.579	0.609	0.656	0.662
济南市	0.614	0.622	0.646	0.667	0.669	0.669	0.705	0.732	0.756
淄博市	0.578	0.632	0.633	0.655	0.649	0.641	0.648	0.692	0.735
东营市	0.622	0.670	0.693	0.693	0.705	0.700	0.706	0.717	0.742
济宁市	0.492	0.538	0.541	0.584	0.583	0.604	0.630	0.667	0.691
泰安市	0.513	0.541	0.594	0.625	0.621	0.650	0.677	0.686	0.693
德州市	0.459	0.514	0.549	0.563	0.547	0.605	0.602	0.622	0.658
聊城市	0.478	0.526	0.548	0.579	0.560	0.596	0.609	0.612	0.644
滨州市	0.507	0.605	0.580	0.621	0.604	0.635	0.622	0.629	0.650
菏泽市	0.398	0.482	0.482	0.523	0.504	0.552	0.582	0.594	0.613

Evaluation of harmonious development of economy-population-resource-environment in the lower reaches of the Yellow River

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