Resources Science ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 341-356.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.02.12

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Pollution control effects of environmental policies based on threshold effect model of industrial structure: Taking the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan as an example

CHEN Lin(), XIAO Qianbing, LAN Shujing   

  1. Institute of Industrial Economics of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
  • Received:2020-03-18 Revised:2020-09-11 Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-04-25

Abstract:

The improvement of environmental quality is not only the result of environmental policy, but closely related to the adjustment of industrial structure under the effect of policy. Based on the panel data of the average annual concentration of PM2.5 in 197 prefectural-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2016, this study took the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan as the proxy dummy variable of environmental regulation, and combined the difference in differences method to examine whether the implementation of the action plan is conducive to reducing the level of haze pollution in three target areas. By putting the industrial structure upgrading indicators (including industrial structure optimization, the “quantity” of industrial structure supererogation, and the “quality” of industrial structure supererogation) into the model, this study explored how the policy affected the haze pollution control through the upgrading of industrial structure. In addition, a panel threshold regression model was used to examine whether there is a threshold effect of industrial structure optimization and industrial structure supererogation on haze pollution control under the background of the implementation of the action plan. The regression results show that: (1) Using the full sample, the policy effect is not significant. In the subregional samples, the policy has a significant haze control effect in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the surrounding areas, but has no significant policy effect on the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta; (2) In the mediation effect model, in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the surrounding areas the policy mainly acts on haze pollution control through the “quantity” of industrial structure supererogation, and the effect is partial intermediary. The “quantity” of industrial structure supererogation in the Yangtze River Delta is complete intermediary when it acts on haze pollution control and the industrial structure upgrading variables in the Pearl River Delta region do not have a significant mediating effect; (3) In the panel threshold regression, threshold effects of industrial structure optimization and industrial structure supererogation are observed in the samples of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi-Shandong-Inner Mongolia and surrounding areas, and the samples of the Yangtze River Delta and surrounding areas.

Key words: Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, environmental regulation, haze pollution, difference-in-differences method, threshold effect, industrial structure optimization, industrial structure supererogation