休耕对农户非农就业的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.02.07

Abstract

Abstract:

With the depletion of China’s surplus rural labor force, it is urgent to reform agricultural operations to release rural labor. Farmland fallow is a sustainable agricultural operation mode, and whether fallow can help promote the transfer of labor force to non-agricultural operations has become a practical issue. Based on the field survey data of 1240 households in the Northwest fallow pilot area, this study used the multivariate Probit, seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR), Heckman two-step, and instrumental variable methods to systematically examine the impact of fallow on off-farm employment from the aspects of employment decision making, employment choice, employment intensity, and employment income, and further investigated the heterogeneity of the impacts. The results show that: (1) Fallow can improve the probability of farmers’ off-farm employment, but the space of action is very limited, and the farmers tend to choose off-farm business. The impact of fallow on the intensity of farmers’ off-farm employment is mainly to increase the available time for off-farm work, and is not to increase the number of off-farm workers. The number of migrant workers increased only because fallow promoted the labor force in their families to shift from local off-farm employment to working outside the home area. Fallow is conducive to increasing farmers’ total off-farm income, migrant workers’ income, and off-farm business income, which is mainly achieved by making more time available for corresponding off-farm activities. (2) The heterogeneity analysis shows that the degree of fallow participation has a positive role in promoting farmers’ off-farm employment, but only when all the cultivated land of a household is involved in fallow can the off-farm employment probability of its members be significantly improved, and only when most of the cultivated land is involved in fallow can their off-farm employment intensity and income be improved. Fallow is beneficial for pure and type I part-time farmers’ off-farm employment probability and income; and it improves farmers’ off-farm employment intensity and income in the older age group, and has greater impact in the high education group than in the low education group.

Key words: farmland fallow, farmers’ off-farm employment, employment choice, employment intensity, employment income, instrumental variable, Northwest fallow pilot area

XIE Xianxiong, DENG Yue, LIU Jiyao, LU Weinan, ZHAO Minjuan. Impact of fallow on off-farm employment of farmers[J].Resources Science, 2021, 43(2): 280-292.

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非农就业选项	总样本（A）	休耕组（B）	非休耕组（C）	休耕组与非休耕组比例之差（B-C）
非农就业/%	77.06	77.85	76.28	1.57*
非农经营/%	4.22	5.12	3.31	1.81*
本地务工/%	39.32	39.17	39.46	-0.29
外地务工/%	45.28	45.12	45.43	-0.31

非农就业人数/时间	总样本均值（A）	休耕组均值（B）	非休耕组均值（C）	休耕组与非休耕组均值之差（B-C）
非农就业总人数/人	1.337	1.353	1.321	0.031
非农经营人数/人	0.061	0.069	0.053	0.016
本地务工人数/人	0.605	0.596	0.613	-0.016
外地务工人数/人	0.671	0.687	0.655	0.032*
非农就业总时间/月	12.394	12.811	11.975	0.835**
非农经营时间/月	0.602	0.744	0.459	0.285*
本地务工时间/月	4.975	5.025	4.923	0.101
外地务工时间/月	6.816	7.040	6.592	0.448**
样本数/个	1208	605	603	-

非农就业选项	总样本均值（A）	休耕组均值（B）	非休耕组均值（C）	休耕组与非休耕组均值之差（B-C）
非农就业总收入/万元	4.249	4.422	4.075	0.347*
非农经营收入/万元	0.226	0.304	0.147	0.156**
本地务工收入/万元	1.542	1.528	1.556	-0.028
外地务工收入/万元	2.480	2.590	2.370	0.219**
样本数/个	1208	605	603	-

变量类型	变量名称	变量说明	休耕组均值（A）	非休耕组均值（B）	两组均值之差（A-B）
个体特征	性别	户主性别：男=1,女=0	0.780	0.802	-0.022
	年龄	户主实际年龄/岁	51.492	52.122	-0.630
	受教育程度	户主实际受教育年限/年	5.833	5.817	0.015
	户主自评健康	户主自评身体健康状况：1=很不好,2=不好,3=一般,4=比较好,5=非常好	3.218	3.306	-0.088*
	兄弟姐妹数量	户主兄弟姐妹个数/人	4.404	4.444	-0.039
家庭特征	家庭规模	家庭总人口数量/人	5.887	5.799	0.088
	劳动力人数	家庭总劳动力个数/人	2.763	2.882	-0.118
	家庭赡抚养占比	家庭赡养和抚养人数占总人口数比重	0.356	0.336	0.020*
	是否村干部户	家中是否有成员为村干部：0=否,1=是	0.071	0.069	0.001
	是否患慢性病户	家中是否有人患慢性病：0=否,1=是	0.442	0.407	0.035
	经营耕地面积	家庭实际经营耕地总面积/亩	9.824	14.050	-4.226***
村庄特征	村道路交通情况	所在行政村的道路交通条件：1=很不好,2=不好,3=一般,4=比较好,5=很好	3.833	3.759	0.073*
村庄特征	村相对收入状况	所在行政村人均收入邻村的情况：1=收入很低,2=收入较低,3=一般,4=收入较高,5=收入很高	2.680	2.759	-0.078

	非农就业	非农经营	本地务工	外地务工	非农就业	非农经营	本地务工	外地务工
	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	二元Probit	多变量Probit
是否休耕	0.011*(0.006)	0.020*(0.012)	-0.030(0.028)	0.030(0.027)	0.034*(0.019)	0.022*(0.012)	-0.030(0.028)	0.023(0.027)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
R²/χ²（p值）	0.3660	0.0250	0.1119	0.1642	0.4515	470.33(0.000)
无同期相关检验	-	-	-	-	-	chi²(3)=283.926(Pr = 0.000)
样本数	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208		1208

Impact of fallow on off-farm employment of farmers

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	非农就业总人数	非农经营人数	本地务工人数	外地务工人数	非农就业总人数	非农经营人数	本地务工人数		外地务工人数
	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	Heckman		SUR
是否休耕	0.040(0.040)	0.020(0.019)	-0.067(0.049)	0.088*(0.046)	0.017(0.042)	0.020(0.019)	-0.070(0.048)		0.090**(0.046)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是		是
R²/χ²（p值）	0.5707	0.0204	0.1740	0.2264	402.89（0.000）	0.0203	0.1705		0.2252
Mills比率	-	-	-	-	0.456***（0.104）	-	-		-
无同期相关	-	-	-	-	-	chi²(3)=499.622（Pr = 0.000）
样本数	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208

	非农就业总时间	非农经营时间	本地务工时间	外地务工时间	非农就业总时间	非农经营时间	本地务工时间	外地务工时间
	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	IV-Heckman		IV-SUR
是否休耕	1.106***(0.421)	0.326*(0.197)	-0.296(0.451)	1.076**(0.486)	1.065**(0.473)	0.327*(0.196)	-0.324(0.449)	1.093**(0.483)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
R²/χ²(p值)	0.5650	0.0211	0.1837	0.2371	443.39(0.000)	0.0211	0.1800	0.2360
Mills比率	-	-	-	-	4.260***(1.181)	-	-	-
无同期相关	-	-	-	-	-	chi²(3)=446.131(Pr = 0.000)
样本数	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208

	非农就业总收入	非农经营收入	本地务工收入	外地务工收入	非农就业总收入	非农经营收入	本地务工收入	外地务工收入
	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	IV-Heckman		SUR
是否休耕	0.487***(0.177)	0.177**(0.082)	-0.137(0.150)	0.446**(0.188)	0.510**(0.209)	0.177**(0.081)	-0.147(0.149)	0.452**(0.016)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
R²/χ²(p值)	0.4698	0.0270	0.1678	0.2227	310.96(0.000)	0.0270	0.1635	0.2218
Mills比率	-	-	-	-	1.569***(0.529)	-	-	-
无同期相关	-	-	-	-	-	chi²(3)=312.045(Pr = 0.000)
样本数	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208

	休耕程参与度	是否休耕	控制变量	R²	样本数
非农就业决策	低	0.004(0.026)	是	0.4358	842
	中	0.043(0.029)	是	0.4294	801
	高	0.084***(0.032)	是	0.4265	771
非农就业人数	低	0.040(0.054)	是	0.5434	842
	中	0.134**(0.061)	是	0.5546	801
	高	0.125*(0.064)	是	0.5566	771
非农就业时间	低	0.057(0.546)	是	0.5530	842
	中	1.744***(0.620)	是	0.5549	801
	高	2.480***(0.661)	是	0.5539	771
非农就业收入	低	0.087(0.229)	是	0.4576	842
	中	0.790***(0.257)	是	0.4712	801
	高	0.864***(0.260)	是	0.4894	771

	休耕前农户类型	是否休耕	控制变量	R²	样本数
非农就业决策	纯农户	0.230***(0.033)	是	0.5400	310
	I兼农户	0.045(0.066)	是	0.3489	129
	II兼农户	0.060(0.040)	是	0.5236	769
非农就业人数	纯农户	0.391***(0.085)	是	0.6126	310
	I兼农户	0.128(0.130)	是	0.5574	129
	II兼农户	-0.101(.059)	是	0.5563	769
非农就业时间	纯农户	3.432***(0.867)	是	0.6289	310
	I兼农户	3.909***(1.429)	是	0.5287	129
	II兼农户	-0.179(0.523)	是	0.5556	769
非农就业收入	纯农户	1.032***(0.397)	是	0.5144	310
	I兼农户	1.493**(0.606)	是	0.4175	129
	II兼农户	0.077(0.214)	是	0.4719	769

年龄分组	非农就业决策		非农就业总人数		非农就业总时间		非农就业总收入
年龄分组	低年龄	高年龄	低年龄	高年龄	低年龄	高年龄	低年龄	高年龄
是否休耕	0.029(0.019)	0.046(0.041)	0.002(0.048)	0.115*(0.061)	0.644(0.517)	1.936***(0.521)	0.345(0.224)	0.727***(0.205)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
R²	0.3713	0.4633	0.5275	0.5930	0.5294	0.6324	0.4266	0.5790
样本数	866	342	866	342	866	342	866	342
教育分组	非农就业决策		非农就业总人数		非农就业总时间		非农就业总收入
教育分组	低教育	高教育	低教育	高教育	低教育	高教育	低教育	高教育
是否休耕	0.021(0.023)	0.062**(0.028)	0.018(0.046)	0.116(0.080)	0.844*(0.465)	2.031**(0.898)	0.268(0.190)	1.224***(0.391)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
R²	0.4276	0.6122	0.5579	0.5985	0.5605	0.5721	0.4601	0.5020
样本数	885	323	885	323	885	323	885	323

[1]	Lun HU, Qian LU. Poverty reduction effects of water-saving irrigation technology adoption under drought risk in Zhangye, Gansu [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 417-426.
[2]	Yuqin LONG, Cheng WANG, Chun DENG, Zhongshu WANG, Suhua LIU, Si CHEN. Fallow willingness of farmland of different types of peasant households and influencing factors in the groundwater funnel area in Xingtai City [J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(10): 1834-1843.