风电上网电价政策地区差异及其产业效应

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.01.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Wind power generation is one of the important tasks for the development of new energy industry, and feed-in-tariff policy is an important measure to promote the development of the wind power industry. It is of great significance to analyze the implementation of the policy and its industrial effect for effectively implementing the policy and promoting the high quality development of the wind power industry. This study first introduced the method of policy similarity in policy text analysis, and quantitatively evaluated the regional difference in the implementation of feed-in-tariff policy from the perspectives of policy implementation time, number of policies, and policy similarity. Then, a multilevel model was established to analyze the industrial effects of the feed-in-tariff policy at the resource area and provincial levels. The results show that: First, different resource areas and provinces have different implementation situation of feed-in-tariff policy. Most of the provinces that belong to the first, second, and third categories of resource areas classified by the National Development and Reform Commission have good implementation of the feed-in-tariff policy, and the policy was issued earlier, the number is large, and the policy is targeted. Second, the policy of wind power feed-in-tariff has significant industrial effects. The earlier the policy was implemented, the larger the number of policies, and the lower the policy similarity, the more favorable the development of the wind power industry. However, these policy variables have different impacts on the development of wind power industry in different regions. Implementation time and the number of policies have a great influence on the development of wind power industry in areas with abundant wind energy resources, while policy similarity has a great influence on the development of wind power industry in areas with immature wind power development model. Therefore, the provinces should implement the feed-in-tariff policy as soon as possible and issue more relevant policies in accordance with regional characteristics in order to promote the development of wind power industry.

Key words: wind power, feed-in-tariff policy, regional difference, industrial effects, text similarity, multilevel model

ZHAO Yanyun, LI Qian. Regional difference and industrial effects of wind power feed-in-tariff policy[J].Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 12-22.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1

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Table 5

References 27

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实施时间	实施省份及价格（元/kWh）
2009年	辽宁（0.61）、黑龙江（0.58或0.61）、河北（0.54或0.61）、甘肃（0.54或0.58）、新疆（0.51或0.58）、北京（0.61）、天津（0.61）
2010年	吉林（0.58或0.61）、内蒙古（0.51或0.54）、山东（0.61）、宁夏（0.58）、江苏（0.61）、浙江（0.61）、海南（0.61）、云南（0.61）
2011年	广东（0.61）、陕西（0.61）、福建（0.61）、青海（0.61）
2012年	安徽（0.61）、湖北（0.61）、广西（0.61）

地区	政策相似度
地区	2009年	2014年	2016年	平均值
北京	0.75	0.80	0.82	0.79
天津	0.77	0.73	0.78	0.76
河北	0.85	0.83	0.72	0.80
山西	0.90	1.00	0.89	0.93
内蒙古	0.81	0.76	0.78	0.78
辽宁	1.00	0.95	0.98	0.98
吉林	0.95	0.97	0.93	0.95
黑龙江	0.80	0.85	0.83	0.83
上海	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
江苏	1.00	0.95	0.98	0.98
浙江	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
安徽	0.95	1.00	1.00	0.98
福建	0.98	0.92	0.94	0.95
江西	0.90	1.00	0.95	0.95
山东	0.80	0.72	0.67	0.73
河南	0.95	1.00	0.92	0.96
湖北	0.95	0.93	0.93	0.94
湖南	1.00	1.00	0.98	0.99
广东	0.90	0.88	0.88	0.89
广西	0.98	0.92	0.90	0.93
海南	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
重庆	0.90	0.90	0.88	0.89
四川	0.70	0.76	0.68	0.71
贵州	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
云南	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
陕西	0.95	0.87	0.90	0.91
甘肃	0.72	0.92	0.90	0.85
青海	0.90	0.86	1.00	0.92
宁夏	0.83	0.82	0.87	0.84
新疆	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.86

固定效应及显著性检验				随机效应及显著性检验
参数	回归系数	t	P	参数	标准差	方差	P（>Chisq）
γ₀₀	0.255	2.635	0.000	u_0j	1.244	1.547	0.000
				e_ij	1.541	2.376

固定效应	回归系数	t值	P值
intercept	0.336	0.972	0.435
time	0.349	4.233	0.000
number	0.065	2.518	0.012
similarity	-1.860	-12.584	0.000
emission	0.148	3.599	0.000
consumption	-0.042	-1.813	0.072
time×second	-0.527	-0.764	0.526
time×third	-0.230	-2.298	0.022
time×fourth	-0.289	-3.465	0.001
number×second	-0.179	-0.731	0.466
number×third	-0.006	-0.027	0.978
number×fourth	-0.235	-2.344	0.020
similarity×second	2.071	12.314	0.000
similarity×third	1.855	10.955	0.000
similarity×fourth	1.857	12.483	0.000
随机效应	方差	标准差	P值
Intercept	0.352	0.593	0.000
Residual	0.006	0.077	0.000

变量	回归系数	t值	P值
intercept	0.354	10.540	0.000
time	0.068	4.097	0.000
number	-0.151	-2.765	0.006
similarity	-0.018	-0.747	0.456
emission	0.254	4.981	0.000
consumption	-0.026	-0.456	0.650
second	-0.216	-6.528	0.000
third	-0.281	-0.907	0.000
fourth	-0.402	-15.254	0.000
F	65.042
调整R²	0.656

Regional difference and industrial effects of wind power feed-in-tariff policy

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