外商直接投资对小岛屿国家经济增长的影响——基于旅游业门槛效应的分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.11.07

Abstract

Abstract:

Tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) are important aspects of the sustainable economic growth of Small Island States. In this study, 30 Small Island States were selected as research objects, and the panel data of 1995-2015 were used to incorporate the interactive of FDI and tourism revenue into a two-way fixed effects model to explore whether there is a threshold effect between FDI and economic growth using tourism development as a threshold variable. The results show that: (1) Tourism has a significant positive correlation with the economic growth of Small Island States, and is an important industrial support for economic growth of Small Island States; (2) There is a double threshold effect based on the scale of tourism: Before the first threshold is reached, the effect of FDI on economic growth is negative; between the two thresholds, the effect of FDI on growth is not significant; but as the scale of tourism exceeds the second threshold, FDI functions as a clear stimulation for economic growth. The conclusion is helpful to deepen the understanding of the development pattern of island economies, and it has reference value for China’s international investment in small island countries, as well as domestic island tourism development.

Key words: Small Island States, foreign direct investment, economic growth, tourism development, threshold effect

GUO Yue, HUANG Youxing, YANG Yu, LIU Shuguang, WANG Chang, HUANG Xinrong. Impact of foreign direct investment on Small Island States’ economic growth: An analysis based on the threshold effect of tourism[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2132-2144.

Figures/Tables 6

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

An empirical analysis of the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economic development of Small Island States"

变量	因变量: $GD P ct$
变量	A-1	A-2	A-3	A-4
$FD I ct$	0.001	-0.018
	(0.002)	(0.027)
$Tou r ct$	0.270***	0.250***
	(0.021)	(0.034)
$FD I ct · Tou r ct$		0.001
		(0.001)
$FD I ct · I (Tou r ct ≤ θ)$			-0.002
			(0.003)
$FD I ct · I (Tou r ct > θ)$			0.006**
			(0.003)
$FD I ct · I (Tou r ct ≤ θ 1)$				-0.008***
				(0.003)
$FD I ct · I θ 1 < Tou r ct ≤ θ 2$				0.002
				(0.003)
$FD I ct · I Tou r ct > θ$				0.010***
				(0.003）
$L P ct$	0.322***	0.323***	0.411***	0.371***
	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.052)	(0.050)
$OD A ct$	0.007	0.006	0.010	0.013
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.011)	(0.011)
$Infr a ct$	0.001	0.002	0.026*	0.031**
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.015)	(0.014)
$Trad e ct$	-0.227***	-0.227***	-0.163***	-0.236***
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.041)	(0.043)
$Pop u ct$	0.768***	0.783***	1.263***	1.298***
	(0.148）	(0.150）	(0.179）	(0.172）
$Expe r ct$	0.015***	0.015***	0.013***	0.011**
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.005)
截距项	3.763**	3.942**	2.075	2.028
	(1.829)	(1.847)	(2.269)	(2.173)
国别效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
年份效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Rx-squared (组内效应）	0.897	0.897	0.841	0.855
Wald （x²）统计量	91.036	87.245	55.206	58.746
第一重门槛检验 (F-test）			37.331***	37.331***
第二重门槛检验 (F-test）				25.436***

Table 2

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

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序号	国家	旅游业占GDP 比重/%	旅游业规模（10⁶美元）	序号	国家	旅游业占GDP比重/%	旅游业规模（10⁶美元）
1	马尔代夫	64.68	12329.41	16	毛里求斯	16.46	14034.89
2	帕劳	39.22	850.48	17	格林纳达	16.34	1214.35
3	塞舌尔	35.59	3639.98	18	马耳他	15.97	11813.32
4	安提瓜和巴布达	31.67	3620.46	19	塞浦路斯	15.07	29170.02
5	圣卢西亚	31.01	3570.70	20	巴林	8.91	15816.65
6	巴巴多斯	30.54	10761.69	21	圣多美和普林西比	7.95	168.50
7	瓦努阿图	28.19	1624.64	22	密克罗尼西亚联邦	6.90	236.07
8	巴哈马	27.87	22724.38	23	科摩罗	6.10	299.46
9	斐济	22.13	7601.18	24	汤加	5.84	205.00
10	佛得角	18.57	2737.56	25	新加坡	5.74	110761.28
11	多米尼克	17.87	816.40	26	所罗门群岛	3.88	314.12
12	萨摩亚	16.95	972.46	27	图瓦卢	3.65	20.82
13	圣文森特和格林纳丁斯	16.93	1058.98	28	特立尼达和多巴哥	3.19	5619.35
14	圣基茨和尼维斯	16.67	1095.71	29	基里巴斯	2.80	43.99
15	牙买加	16.60	21259.24	30	马绍尔群岛	2.42	43.81

Impact of foreign direct investment on Small Island States’ economic growth: An analysis based on the threshold effect of tourism

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