Resources Science ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 2106-2118.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.11.05

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Strategy of China’s investment in Arctic Passage development based on Stackelberg game theory

PAN Changhong1(), LI Zhenfu2, SUN Dongshi1   

  1. 1. College of Information and Business Management, Dalian Neusoft University of Informatica, Dalian 116023, China
    2. College of Transportation Management Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
  • Received:2020-05-08 Revised:2020-09-18 Online:2020-11-25 Published:2021-01-25

Abstract:

In the context of the construction of the Silk Road on the Ice, the use of the Arctic Passage is of great significance for the development of China’s international trade. Considering China and Russia’s joint development of the Arctic Passage, this study examined how China can use its capital advantage to invest in port development along the route to obtain long-term stable returns. Using Stackelberg game theory, an independent game model between China and Russia and a mixed game model when other investment countries are involved were established. Representative ports were selected for evaluation using data envelopment analysis (DEA), and data were collected for empirical research. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) Port operating costs are a key factor that affect the final profit. When investing, it is necessary to reduce operating costs through intelligent equipment and information platforms. When multiple countries are involved in investment, China should strive for early-start advantages or choose to form an investment alliance instead of engaging in price wars by reducing returns; (2) Port investment strategy must ensure that port development level matches port development potentialport development level too high and too low both will affect the return on investment. Through the effectiveness evaluation of DEA, we can identify the shortcomings of the existing development level and make targeted adjustments. Ports that cannot be adjusted for facilities due to political reasons are not regarded as priority investment objects; (3) When the investment amount increases from a low level, it will bring a decline in income. Joint investment is an effective means to solve this problem. The total scale of investment ports affects returns. It is necessary to balance port upgrading difficulty and the total scale of ports. Priority should be given to large-scale port clusters with lower upgrading difficulty, rather than to individual ports that are difficult to upgrade and have a higher degree of modernization.

Key words: Stackelberg game, Matlab simulation, Arctic Passage, portfolio strategy, data envelopment analysis (DEA)